Jerick Mckinnon

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Re: Jerick Mckinnon

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Mon Apr 30, 2018 10:32 am

Here's an interesting exercise for determining whether or not to put a premium price on a player. If said player gets hurt, is he virtually guaranteed the same role next year. I don't think you can say that with any degree of certainty for McKinnon, and so therefor I would not put a premium price on him. And by premium price I mean roughly an early-mid 1st, depending on how the draft class shakes out.

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Re: Jerick Mckinnon

Postby Valhalla » Mon Apr 30, 2018 11:07 am

Dynasty DeLorean wrote:
Mon Apr 30, 2018 10:32 am
Here's an interesting exercise for determining whether or not to put a premium price on a player. If said player gets hurt, is he virtually guaranteed the same role next year. I don't think you can say that with any degree of certainty for McKinnon, and so therefor I would not put a premium price on him. And by premium price I mean roughly an early-mid 1st, depending on how the draft class shakes out.
I get your point, but, aside from the anomaly years, most years have mid-firsts being spent on 3rd-4th round RBs. Those guys are not guaranteed their role against injury, either...yet they're worth what you define as a premium price (an early to mid-first) as that's what many drafters typically get at those draft slots. So even if McKinnon isn't guaranteed against injury to regain his role, neither is your common mid-1st (in a rookie draft, not NLF mid-first) RB...

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Re: Jerick Mckinnon

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Mon Apr 30, 2018 11:09 am

Valhalla wrote:
Mon Apr 30, 2018 11:07 am
Dynasty DeLorean wrote:
Mon Apr 30, 2018 10:32 am
Here's an interesting exercise for determining whether or not to put a premium price on a player. If said player gets hurt, is he virtually guaranteed the same role next year. I don't think you can say that with any degree of certainty for McKinnon, and so therefor I would not put a premium price on him. And by premium price I mean roughly an early-mid 1st, depending on how the draft class shakes out.
I get your point, but, aside from the anomaly years, most years have mid-firsts being spent on 3rd-4th round RBs. Those guys are not guaranteed their role against injury, either...yet they're worth what you define as a premium price (an early to mid-first) as that's what many drafters typically get at those draft slots. So even if McKinnon isn't guaranteed against injury to regain his role, neither is your common mid-1st (in a rookie draft, not NLF mid-first) RB...
Yes I mostly agree with that. It would vary with the draft class. By premium pick/mid-1st I would mean... roughly a top 6 pick, again depending on the draft class. This year I count about 6 RB's based on skill, situation and draft capital I would bet on over McKinnon. 1.09 > McKinnon for a contender I completely understand.
Last edited by Dynasty DeLorean on Mon Apr 30, 2018 11:12 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Jerick Mckinnon

Postby FantasyFreak » Mon Apr 30, 2018 11:09 am

Valhalla wrote:
Mon Apr 30, 2018 11:07 am
Dynasty DeLorean wrote:
Mon Apr 30, 2018 10:32 am
Here's an interesting exercise for determining whether or not to put a premium price on a player. If said player gets hurt, is he virtually guaranteed the same role next year. I don't think you can say that with any degree of certainty for McKinnon, and so therefor I would not put a premium price on him. And by premium price I mean roughly an early-mid 1st, depending on how the draft class shakes out.
I get your point, but, aside from the anomaly years, most years have mid-firsts being spent on 3rd-4th round RBs. Those guys are not guaranteed their role against injury, either...yet they're worth what you define as a premium price (an early to mid-first) as that's what many drafters typically get at those draft slots. So even if McKinnon isn't guaranteed against injury to regain his role, neither is your common mid-1st (in a rookie draft, not NLF mid-first) RB...
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Re: Jerick Mckinnon

Postby JFever » Mon Apr 30, 2018 12:41 pm

DD, If ya don't mind my asking, who are the 6 running backs from this class that you are betting on over McKinnon? Fwiw, I don't see 3 that I would bet on to outproduce McKinnon in ppr scoring. * All 6 of my leagues are ppr.
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Re: Jerick Mckinnon

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Mon Apr 30, 2018 1:05 pm

JFever wrote:
Mon Apr 30, 2018 12:41 pm
DD, If ya don't mind my asking, who are the 6 running backs from this class that you are betting on over McKinnon? Fwiw, I don't see 3 that I would bet on to outproduce McKinnon in ppr scoring. * All 6 of my leagues are ppr.
Going down the list in no particular order, Barkley, Guice, Rojo, Michel, Penny and Chubb. That's not set in stone, I have barely watched tape on anyone this year so far. But that's a rough estimate just based on the other factors at play. It's not to say I love all those players, but just given the nature of their draft pedigree and situation they will be given a longer leash than McKinnon. Again, it's not who I think will outscore McKinnon this year assuming full health. Trying to decipher who will outscore whom by how much in any individual year is not something I'm particularly interested in doing. It's who will likely have the same or similar opportunity as McKinnon this year as well as next year and beyond if they were to get injured or suffer some other unfortunate fate. In 4 years McKinnon has not proven to be "the guy", and when you're not "the guy" the team will continually try to bring in a guy that can be "the guy." I guess you could say I'm a risk-adverse dynasty player. I wouldn't want to go on that ride if I could get any of the players I just mentioned. That's just how I see it and play dynasty. I'm not continually chasing the boom, i'm continually trying to avoid the bust.

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Re: Jerick Mckinnon

Postby ManhattanProject » Mon Apr 30, 2018 2:23 pm

Dynasty DeLorean wrote:
Mon Apr 30, 2018 1:05 pm
I'm not continually chasing the boom, i'm continually trying to avoid the bust.
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Re: Jerick Mckinnon

Postby ImaRounder » Mon Apr 30, 2018 2:49 pm

ManhattanProject wrote:
Mon Apr 30, 2018 2:23 pm
Dynasty DeLorean wrote:
Mon Apr 30, 2018 1:05 pm
I'm not continually chasing the boom, i'm continually trying to avoid the bust.
My new dynasty motto.
Maybe the best dynasty quote ever

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Re: Jerick Mckinnon

Postby _yeti » Mon Apr 30, 2018 3:16 pm

Dynasty DeLorean wrote:
Mon Apr 30, 2018 1:05 pm
In 4 years McKinnon has not proven to be "the guy", and when you're not "the guy" the team will continually try to bring in a guy that can be "the guy."
You mean... what San Francisco did right now with McKinnon? Bringing him in to be "the guy?"

I get you are knocking him for not seizing the role in MN but that is one organization and I held him in the hopes he would be given a bigger role past his rookie contract. Also, it was an organization in flux with a much different offensive philosophy than this new SF team. You're both knocking him but then giving credit to the idea of a team bringing in someone new to be "the guy."

We get it, he isn't 22. If he gets injured year one of being brought in to be the guy it tanks his value. But until then, by your own words, some credence has to be given to someone brought in to be "the guy."
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Re: Jerick Mckinnon

Postby FantasyFreak » Mon Apr 30, 2018 3:27 pm

Dynasty DeLorean wrote:
Mon Apr 30, 2018 1:05 pm
JFever wrote:
Mon Apr 30, 2018 12:41 pm
DD, If ya don't mind my asking, who are the 6 running backs from this class that you are betting on over McKinnon? Fwiw, I don't see 3 that I would bet on to outproduce McKinnon in ppr scoring. * All 6 of my leagues are ppr.
Going down the list in no particular order, Barkley, Guice, Rojo, Michel, Penny and Chubb. That's not set in stone, I have barely watched tape on anyone this year so far. But that's a rough estimate just based on the other factors at play. It's not to say I love all those players, but just given the nature of their draft pedigree and situation they will be given a longer leash than McKinnon. Again, it's not who I think will outscore McKinnon this year assuming full health. Trying to decipher who will outscore whom by how much in any individual year is not something I'm particularly interested in doing. It's who will likely have the same or similar opportunity as McKinnon this year as well as next year and beyond if they were to get injured or suffer some other unfortunate fate. In 4 years McKinnon has not proven to be "the guy", and when you're not "the guy" the team will continually try to bring in a guy that can be "the guy." I guess you could say I'm a risk-adverse dynasty player. I wouldn't want to go on that ride if I could get any of the players I just mentioned. That's just how I see it and play dynasty. I'm not continually chasing the boom, i'm continually trying to avoid the bust.
Then stay away from Rojo. :lol:

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Re: Jerick Mckinnon

Postby Cameron Giles » Mon Apr 30, 2018 3:52 pm

Dynasty DeLorean wrote:
Mon Apr 30, 2018 10:32 am
Here's an interesting exercise for determining whether or not to put a premium price on a player. If said player gets hurt, is he virtually guaranteed the same role next year. I don't think you can say that with any degree of certainty for McKinnon, and so therefor I would not put a premium price on him. And by premium price I mean roughly an early-mid 1st, depending on how the draft class shakes out.
I agree with this. Every year there's multiple RB's who people insist aren't being overvalued due to situation. Ty Montgomery was the popular one last year. He got hurt, lost his job to Aaron Jones...who got hurt and lost his job to Jamaal Williams. McKinnon is an average RB being propped up by a fantastic situation and opportunity. His saving grace is that the 49ers overpaid and are clearly invested in him. I'm interested to see how he does, but I'd be terrified of paying the price of a 1.02 right now for him.

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Re: Jerick Mckinnon

Postby Valhalla » Mon Apr 30, 2018 6:41 pm

Cameron Giles wrote:
Mon Apr 30, 2018 3:52 pm
Dynasty DeLorean wrote:
Mon Apr 30, 2018 10:32 am
Here's an interesting exercise for determining whether or not to put a premium price on a player. If said player gets hurt, is he virtually guaranteed the same role next year. I don't think you can say that with any degree of certainty for McKinnon, and so therefor I would not put a premium price on him. And by premium price I mean roughly an early-mid 1st, depending on how the draft class shakes out.
I agree with this. Every year there's multiple RB's who people insist aren't being overvalued due to situation. Ty Montgomery was the popular one last year. He got hurt, lost his job to Aaron Jones...who got hurt and lost his job to Jamaal Williams. McKinnon is an average RB being propped up by a fantastic situation and opportunity. His saving grace is that the 49ers overpaid and are clearly invested in him. I'm interested to see how he does, but I'd be terrified of paying the price of a 1.02 right now for him.
I agree with this general premise and typically avoid the guy propped by great situation...but I just have one issue with your thoughts. I don’t think McKinnon is an average talent. I’m also the guy that was adamantly defending McKinnon’s worth after the Murray signing and drafting of Cook, though, so I know I’m on the extreme end of the spectrum of “how much do you like this guy’s stand-alone talent.” I acknowledge most fans don’t feel he’s all THAT talented. Some people think he’s garbage (like Skip I’m pretty sure). I suppose the average opinion out there is that he’s an average talent. We all get our own opinions, though, and I held what I perceived to be high end talent to ride out the situation. The situation is now golden for the talent I already really liked. I’m not “over-valuing due to situation,” from the perspective I carry. To value him as a mid-high first on situation alone, I agree that’s wrong if you watched and evaluated him as an average talent. So I suppose I agree and disagree with you.

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Re: Jerick Mckinnon

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Mon Apr 30, 2018 6:56 pm

Valhalla wrote:
Mon Apr 30, 2018 6:41 pm
Cameron Giles wrote:
Mon Apr 30, 2018 3:52 pm
Dynasty DeLorean wrote:
Mon Apr 30, 2018 10:32 am
Here's an interesting exercise for determining whether or not to put a premium price on a player. If said player gets hurt, is he virtually guaranteed the same role next year. I don't think you can say that with any degree of certainty for McKinnon, and so therefor I would not put a premium price on him. And by premium price I mean roughly an early-mid 1st, depending on how the draft class shakes out.
I agree with this. Every year there's multiple RB's who people insist aren't being overvalued due to situation. Ty Montgomery was the popular one last year. He got hurt, lost his job to Aaron Jones...who got hurt and lost his job to Jamaal Williams. McKinnon is an average RB being propped up by a fantastic situation and opportunity. His saving grace is that the 49ers overpaid and are clearly invested in him. I'm interested to see how he does, but I'd be terrified of paying the price of a 1.02 right now for him.
I agree with this general premise and typically avoid the guy propped by great situation...but I just have one issue with your thoughts. I don’t think McKinnon is an average talent. I’m also the guy that was adamantly defending McKinnon’s worth after the Murray signing and drafting of Cook, though, so I know I’m on the extreme end of the spectrum of “how much do you like this guy’s stand-alone talent.” I acknowledge most fans don’t feel he’s all THAT talented. Some people think he’s garbage (like Skip I’m pretty sure). I suppose the average opinion out there is that he’s an average talent. We all get our own opinions, though, and I held what I perceived to be high end talent to ride out the situation. The situation is now golden for the talent I already really liked. I’m not “over-valuing due to situation,” from the perspective I carry. To value him as a mid-high first on situation alone, I agree that’s wrong if you watched and evaluated him as an average talent. So I suppose I agree and disagree with you.
That’s fair, but do you believe the 49ers think the same way you do. If he tears his Achilles like Foreman did or tears his acl like cook, are the 49ers not going to spend a significant amount of draft capital or bring in a FA that will rival his role on the team. I can’t say for sure one way or the other, but given McKinnons unproven track record I think it’s likely they would. I’m curious what you think.

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Re: Jerick Mckinnon

Postby ericanadian » Mon Apr 30, 2018 7:44 pm

Dynasty DeLorean wrote:
Mon Apr 30, 2018 6:56 pm
Valhalla wrote:
Mon Apr 30, 2018 6:41 pm
Cameron Giles wrote:
Mon Apr 30, 2018 3:52 pm


I agree with this. Every year there's multiple RB's who people insist aren't being overvalued due to situation. Ty Montgomery was the popular one last year. He got hurt, lost his job to Aaron Jones...who got hurt and lost his job to Jamaal Williams. McKinnon is an average RB being propped up by a fantastic situation and opportunity. His saving grace is that the 49ers overpaid and are clearly invested in him. I'm interested to see how he does, but I'd be terrified of paying the price of a 1.02 right now for him.
I agree with this general premise and typically avoid the guy propped by great situation...but I just have one issue with your thoughts. I don’t think McKinnon is an average talent. I’m also the guy that was adamantly defending McKinnon’s worth after the Murray signing and drafting of Cook, though, so I know I’m on the extreme end of the spectrum of “how much do you like this guy’s stand-alone talent.” I acknowledge most fans don’t feel he’s all THAT talented. Some people think he’s garbage (like Skip I’m pretty sure). I suppose the average opinion out there is that he’s an average talent. We all get our own opinions, though, and I held what I perceived to be high end talent to ride out the situation. The situation is now golden for the talent I already really liked. I’m not “over-valuing due to situation,” from the perspective I carry. To value him as a mid-high first on situation alone, I agree that’s wrong if you watched and evaluated him as an average talent. So I suppose I agree and disagree with you.
That’s fair, but do you believe the 49ers think the same way you do. If he tears his Achilles like Foreman did or tears his acl like cook, are the 49ers not going to spend a significant amount of draft capital or bring in a FA that will rival his role on the team. I can’t say for sure one way or the other, but given McKinnons unproven track record I think it’s likely they would. I’m curious what you think.
His cap impact suggests he's guaranteed at least two years on the roster. I think he'd have to look pretty bad prior to such an injury to completely eliminate himself from competing for the lead role in 2019. That said, an early injury would almost completely wipe out his value on a near permanent basis as owners can only be burned so many times before they just assume failure is inevitable.

How long do you think McKinnon would have to produce before he gained some value insulation?
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Re: Jerick Mckinnon

Postby Valhalla » Mon Apr 30, 2018 7:47 pm

I suppose if he got hurt they’d be forced to bring in a demarco Murray or freshly cut Jeremy Hill or something to get by, and when the next draft season rolled around, I’d expect them to get an update on his recovery status and if doing well they’d draft a mid-level talent, like a 3rd-5th round back, and he’d have his receiving back role still locked in at worst provide health. Even with a round 2 big compliment back, mckinnon would still get lots of receiving down work in a system that has used backs like that a fair amount. So some level of a safe floor even if injured, with a nice upside if he can stay healthy and get a lot of carry and scoring opportunity.


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