Release the Guice! - The Derrius Guice Discussion Thread

[MEuRaH]

I took Kerryon 1.03, so with Guice out I suppose I'd take Kerryon 1.02. Sounds stupid? Well my #1 RB 3 years ago was David Johnson and it sounded stupid then too.

[FantasyFreak]

I took Kerryon 1.03, so with Guice out I suppose I'd take Kerryon 1.02. Sounds stupid? Well my #1 RB 3 years ago was David Johnson and it sounded stupid then too.

Nope, I am a Penny guy, against all the Guice love, and I had DJ high as well, had Lev Bell as my RB1 in all of Dynasty after his rookie year, had Kareem as a good NFL start 3 years ago at Toledo in his sophomore year etc. No it doesn't sound stupid at all. He looks good against the Raiders scrubs tonight, his talent being on the field in the 2nd half of a pre season game shows he should not be on the field in the 2nd half of a pre season game. I've had my fair share of misses, too, mostly at WR, I am best at evaluating RB in terms of my personal scouting. Hope you didn't take my CJA joke too seriously, I admire the verve, and you were half right, he's still around and relevant, and a lot of people were arguing he wouldn't be by now.

[ninotoreS]

Honestly? I'm inclined to think Guice is still the 1.2. Indications suggest the tear is slight (as they come, at least). Good prognosis.

Developments have been so negative for every other top RB in this class not named Saquon or Kerryon that it might just keep Guice in place on my board.

[FantasyFreak]

Honestly? I'm inclined to think Guice is still the 1.2. Indications suggest the tear is slight (as they come, at least). Good prognosis.

Hopefully that prognosis did not come from Derrius "all is well" Guice. Sorry, couldn't resist. I think he's a good back, not hating on him, just think he's over rated. I actually wanted to see him play this year, so I could see how my RB evaluations held up, and because it's always good to see players play. Never want to see people hurt, in any walk of life, and if we do, we need to check our priorities.

[ninotoreS]

Nah. I'm only inferring from context. i.e. He could walk and stand, everyone thought it was only an MCL sprain at first, etc. This injury has the sense of a Deshaun Watson caliber of ACL tear.

Helps that Guice is so young coming out, declaring for the draft at age 20; presumably, he'll heal faster and possibly better.

Interesting fact: the historical success of RBs that declared at age 20 and were taken in the 2nd round is very optimistic.

[FantasyFreak]

Nah. I'm only inferring from context. i.e. He could walk and stand, everyone thought it was only an MCL sprain at first, etc. This injury has the sense of a Deshaun Watson caliber of ACL tear.

Helps that Guice is so young coming out, declaring for the draft at age 20; presumably, he'll heal faster and possibly better.

Interesting fact: the historical success of RBs that declared at age 20 and were taken in the 2nd round is very optimistic.

Cool. Again, just joking. Guice will be back. I see him as a 2 down grinder, and a good one. He's an old school power back, and he'll be back. I am going to put some offers out in season when people want points. The idea he's a 3 down back is not valid IMO. I'll take 30 catches a year with 1100 yard and 8-10 TD's on the ground all day. Can't get Lev Bell every draft, people forget that.

[ninotoreS]

OTA and camp reports suggest Guice has 3-down potential. Improving as a pass-protector and comes out of his breaks sharply running routes. Assuming he won't lose something there from this knee injury, of course.

[FantasyFreak]

OTA and camp reports suggest Guice has 3-down potential. Improving as a pass-protector and comes out of his breaks sharply running routes.

Assuming he won't lose something from this knee injury, of course.

I know what they suggest, but based on what I observe, Marshall was out there ahead of him (and scored a 25 yard TD) on third an longs, without Thompson, he just doesn't fit that mold. He isn't very explosive in space. He is a great power back that once he gets momentum to the 2nd level, is really hard to bring down, because he has that inertia vs DB's, but in receiving situations, where often times you catch the ball with your back to the defender, he is not elusive. I have studied this. He can catch, but in not a good receiving back in the sense of catching the ball, turning upfield and making a guy miss from an almost standstill position. The fact he CAN catch gives him a good floor for receptions, and he will be out there on third an short (he was in that game) on 3rd and 2, and it was a pass play, but it was to give the illusion it was a run, and he was out there to draw players to him, and the pass went the other way. On third an long Marshall was out there, and looked good. Guice should get 30 reception a year, which is not negligible. 2 a game, on check downs, etc. adds up with those goal line TD's and 1000 plus yards on the ground.

[lukkynumber13]

Just because I’m saying I still have him as the 1.02 doesn’t mean I’m not devaluing him.

In a startup, he’s absolutely going to go lower now than he would a week ago, and rightfully so.

Saying that he’s still your 1.02 is NOT the same thing as saying “he didn’t lose value”

[FantasyFreak]

Just because I’m saying I still have him as the 1.02 doesn’t mean I’m not devaluing him.

In a startup, he’s absolutely going to go lower now than he would a week ago, and rightfully so.

Saying that he’s still your 1.02 is NOT the same thing as saying “he didn’t lose value”

True. You have him higher in your personal rankings if he is your 1.02 and isn't in the same tier as others, and I can debate that (which I don't want to do), but I can't argue that. Well said.

[FantasyFreak]

Ugh. For a dynasty forum there are a lot of short term thinkers. RBs get injured. Go ahead, pick a guy with lesser talent and wait until he has an injury. Not many rbs make it through a career without a significant injury. This reminds me of when everyone sold Charles or AP after their acl tears, savvy owners scooped them up and reaped rewards, while over reactors lost. Tell me, what rb had an acl inury then had their talent decline?

Had to lay this one down, though. Rashard Mendenhall, first round pick of the Steelers. He was never the same aferewards. It essentially ruined his career. I agree not to drop Guice down too much (tier drop, but it does happen)

[ninotoreS]

he is not elusive... He can catch, but in not a good receiving back in the sense of catching the ball

This stuff isn't a requirement to be a 3-down RB, though.

You could be talking about Marshawn Lynch, Adrian Peterson, and Zeke Elliot with your assessment there. To possess 3-down utility, the back only has to be functional as an outlet pass-catcher and reliable as a pass-protector.

He isn't very explosive in space

Maybe this is an issue of semantics, but I think most people would describe the matter-of-fact home-run gear Guice possesses in space as 'explosive'. He didn't get those three 200-yard rushing games in the SEC by grinding. Be sure you didn't exclusively study '17, when Guice was gimped.

An example of a '2-down grinder' is a guy like Alfred Morris or Jordan Howard. That ain't Guice at all, or at least not pre-ACL injury Guice.

Todd Gurley was nothing special as a pass-catcher coming out of Georiga. But he always had a home-run gear, and he was always a load for DBs to bring down in space. That also describes Guice, exactly. Gurley eventually developed functional ability as an outlet pass-catcher, and now he's coming off a 60 catch season in which he averaged 12 yards a reception. Guice's pre-injury athleticism is very similar to Todd Gurley's at Georgia and in his first season in the NFL.

[FantasyFreak]

he is not elusive... He can catch, but in not a good receiving back in the sense of catching the ball

This stuff isn't a requirement to be a 3-down RB, though.

You could be talking about Marshawn Lynch, Adrian Peterson, and Zeke Elliot with your assessment there. To possess 3-down utility, the back only has to be functional as an outlet pass-catcher and reliable as a pass-protector.

He isn't very explosive in space

Maybe this is an issue of semantics, but I think most people would describe the matter-of-fact home-run gear Guice possesses in space as 'explosive'. He didn't get those 200-yard rushing games in the SEC by grinding. Be sure you didn't exclusively study '17, when Guice was gimped.

An example of a '2-down grinder' is a guy like Alfred Morris or Jordan Howard. That ain't Guice at all, or at least not pre-ACL injury Guice.

I did, he isn't. Sorry, he has the ability to run behind great blocking, and churn out tough yards, and when he gets down hill without having to stop his feet behind the LOS, look out. but in passing situations, when his back is turned, and he has to stop and start, not so much. When he gets wide opens lanes like he did in those games, sure, any day 2 back should have that. At the NFL level, I maintain that he isn't explosive in space. I've watched the tape a ton. He doesn't impress me as a guy that can play 3 downs at the next level. I don't see it. Not saying he can't break off long runs, but he does't have the elusiveness that other backs have at this level on third and long. I think it's telling Marshall played ahead of him with the basic first team (Smith not included) on 3rd down without Thompson playing. I view Guice as a predominantly 2 down back, being out on 3rd and short, but not 3rd an long. I have watched all the games from all his years, and I don't see him as a "never come off the field back", he doesn't have that elite skill set IMO.

[ninotoreS]

Your study of his film isn't complete. My guess? You've only watched a few games, and you aren't aware that they were the games in '17 when he played through a knee strain.

The notion Derrius Guice at LSU was a lumbering power-back reliant on blocking is just... empirically wrong. He stacks moves on moves with his exceptional balance, cuts well, and explodes for chunk runs on the regular in '16 and the healthy portion of '17.

[FantasyFreak]

Your study of his film isn't complete. My guess? You've only watched a few games, and you aren't aware that they were the games in '17 when he played through a knee strain.

The notion Derrius Guice at LSU was a lumbering power-back reliant on blocking is just... empirically wrong.

Nope. Your guess is very wrong. You are just having a different subjective opinion. I never used the word" lumbering", nor suggested in any way that he was of that nature, and you are putting words in my mouth. I've watched his games, all of them, as I have already stated, and my findings are different than yours. I don't think he's a 3 down back, not much more to it really, you can go on more about empirical evidence, but I never said he was reliant on blocking, just that he showed explosiveness when he had it. I don't see him being able to outplay other backs at the NFL level or give something they don't have on third and long at the NFL level.

My projections are 1100-1200 yards rushing, 8-11 TD's
30 receptions for 200 yards 1-2 TD's

That's if he can stay healthy, through his prime

I think that's a hit on a rookie pick if he gets it