Release the Guice! - The Derrius Guice Discussion Thread

[FantasyFreak]

Donte Stallworth was JAG went to prison for Vehicular Manslaughter and returned to the NFL. The simple fact is peoples memories are short and the NFL doesn't care if they think it helps them win they can, will and do. You focus on Bens talent when my point is its only a story til its not. His charges went away and the story did too. It happens all the time. If the smoke clears and there is 1 plea bargain and no charges or jail time Guice is in pads as soon as the ink dries for someone.

My only point is if you have a fringe rb5 UDFA rostered Guice is easily as valuable and thinking he isn't is foolish until he is convicted of something.

But Guice hasn't done anything. Hill and Roethlisberger were proven players at more premium positions, with elite production.

Guice is an unproven player at an expendable position.

If he's cleared of all charges (seems unlikely given rape AND domestic violence charges in two different situations), could he return to the league? Sure, but the upside he has is nothing to note. He's not going to be a starter and he may not even be the RB2. Keeping him on your roster is not a "I'm into winning" move. It's a refusal to accept sunk cost.

Yeah, and it's a hard pill to swallow. Ego doesn't want to let this stuff go. We'll type about it on this thread over the coming week for a lot more time than Guice will ever be on a football field in an NFL regular season game, again, most likely. That's if you hit one key on your keyboard, too.

[bobandrews]

I posted earlier in this thread that I'd cut him when we cut down rosters but I've realized that the only reason I was putting it off is that 'But I used the 1.02 on him!' thing. Even tho we've decided that we are not cutting down rosters this year due to COVID, I can't justify holding him. Sad to see someone screw up his life and damage others like he apparently has.

[FantasyFreak]

I posted earlier in this thread that I'd cut him when we cut down rosters but I've realized that the only reason I was putting it off is that 'But I used the 1.02 on him!' thing. Even tho we've decided that we are not cutting down rosters this year due to COVID, I can't justify holding him. Sad to see someone screw up his life and damage others like he apparently has.

He was a late 2nd round pick in the NFL, so Dynasty people have always had a higher value to him than the NFL His perceived Dynasty value is a lot more than what it carries in the NFL, especially at that position. The way Dynasty views RB's vs the NFL, and the draft capital in this case are two different stories.

[Yarnith]

I literally got him for free so I do love the projecting my motivations. I would have sworn Hunt was done, AB was done, AP was done they played on. The whole argument that "they were probowlers that is why" is bunk. If it all comes to nothing someone will use him somewhere. Rehash it all ya like but its just true. The likely outcome is he is guilty of enough and its over but that is why its a longshot.

[bjd5211]

I literally got him for free so I do love the projecting my motivations. I would have sworn Hunt was done, AB was done, AP was done they played on. The whole argument that "they were probowlers that is why" is bunk. If it all comes to nothing someone will use him somewhere. Rehash it all ya like but its just true. The likely outcome is he is guilty of enough and its over but that is why its a longshot.

No, it's exactly why. Exceptions are made for exceptional talents. Is it fair? Maybe not, but that's just how it works, especially in an extremely competitive field like professional sports.

[ericanadian]

I am assuming everyone has forgotten the "multiple reports of rape" Big Ben had that turned into nothing? Until there is a guilty verdict this is noise. Odds are he is done but things happen. You don't have to be a star to go to jail for vehicular manslaughter and be playing in the NFL a year later. I would pay nothing for Guice but I have him on my IR slot so keeping him over JJ Taylor and Javon Leake and honestly I am ok with that.

I don’t know that the Big Ben accusations turned to nothing. They couldn’t prove anything, but he generally seems like a turd of a human being.

[Kurt G.O.A.T.]

i hate how we don't find out about any of this stuff until it's too late. i know it's none of our business but it sucks.

all the nfl teams know and that's why some players drop like lead balloons on draft day. something we should take notice of the next time a player falls and nobody can undrestand why.

having said that tyreek hill and joe mixon seem to prove that wrong. however their problems were public before they got drafted. plus they weren't injured their whole nfl career.

if guice was successful i wonder how many of his dirty deeds would have been kept quiet right now with loads of cash.

[bjd5211]

i hate how we don't find out about any of this stuff until it's too late. i know it's none of our business but it sucks.

all the nfl teams know and that's why some players drop like lead balloons on draft day. something we should take notice of the next time a player falls and nobody can undrestand why.

having said that tyreek hill and joe mixon seem to prove that wrong. however their problems were public before they got drafted. plus they weren't injured their whole nfl career.

if guice was successful i wonder how many of his dirty deeds would have been kept quite right now with loads of cash.

This must be why Hakeem Butler fell!!! /s

[mild]

if guice was successful i wonder how many of his dirty deeds would have been kept quite right now with loads of cash.

I mean, sure, there's a chance of this... but I think it has everything to do with what's happening in Washington right now, too. The fact that Washington were the team that didn't care about the smoke coming out of LSU on Guice and drafted him anyway should not be lost on us - like, of -course- it was going to be them. (They love(d?) signing bad character dudes, look no further than them immediately signing Reuben Foster)

And much like AB, once the ball gets rolling, more people who may have otherwise been sitting on it usually feel like they can speak their truth, too. It's just as messy for the victims to come forward, as they now have to be publicly associated with this man on all google searches everywhere, forever. If anything it's harder.

[Pullo Vision]

I don't think Guice has much ceiling, either. I mean the likelihood is he's done, and at best he's going to be playing after a 2 year hiatus or so, and I don't think he's going to be anything special by then. Not sure he even is now. You'll have to sit and have him percolate there for a long time with no chance at upside before the slight chance of his hypothetical upside even has a chance to be realized. I'd rather add a guy who has a shot to increase in value, or can be traded in season for an upgrade on a pick next year, like a 2/3 swap, even if they aren't ever going to be worth anything much long term. Malcolm Brown may provide that to a RB needy team if Akers gets hurt, or struggles, and injuries, COVID etc pile up for a league mate. Guice won't provide that return, most likely. I mean what's his top value now? He may be worth a random 2nd some day, best case scenario?[

Yes, having the slight chance he pays off in some way would require holding for an extended period of time. Before I roster upside stashes, I decide I have to commit to keeping him for at least a year. When I got Luck, I decided I needed to hold him for two years before I consider letting him go. I build my roster around the idea that roster spot won't ever be startable during that time. I use other spots for churning.

Malcolm Brown could certainly have short term value, but I can't see ever getting an upgrade from third to 2nd rounder. I could see him as having short term value, like a week or three. What kind of return could you get for that? Maybe Ty Johnson last year would be a good guide.

Regardless, M Brown isn't a good example because he's not a FA in my RB heavy leagues. Let's look at this from another angle. If Guice were a FA in an RB heavy league, what FA could step in off waivers, either to replace his potential long term startability before WSH cut him or his long-term upside gamble afterwards? Here's a look at FA RBs with the highest point projection- Q Ollison, Kyle Juice-check (SFO), Jeff Wilson, Dion Lewis, Kalen Ballage, Ty Johnson, Elijah McGuire, Darrel Williams, JD McKissic, Josh Adams. Where in that list do you see long term upside? If he were cut, he'd immediately jump to the top of the list in terms of upside.

There are upside waiver backs I'm keeping an eye on, but to the underlined point, none have the potential return value of getting a future 2nd in return, imo. If I told you there was a waiver back with that potential return, wouldn't you be begging to know who?

How does Guice help you win?

Unemployed
Likely to not be a starter anytime soon, if ever
Extremely bad off field issues

Most random RBs have more upside than him right now.

How? Well, "winning" isn't specific to this year. Few have his potential long-term upside. That doesn't speak to flipping him, as FF mentioned. When I drafted Antonio Gibson in the third months ago, I joked that his chance of hitting might not be better than 10%, but his upside is ridiculously high. At this point, Guice is similar- high bust chance, but better upside than other options. I broke down some hypothetical options above.

Keeping him on your roster is not a "I'm into winning" move. It's a refusal to accept sunk cost.

Addressed above- Guice's upside tops waiver backs. If he were cut, I'd pick him up, even if I were the team that cut him.

[Kurt G.O.A.T.]

In one of my shallow leagues he just got dumped for Benny Snell.

[Jigga94]

Imagine had there been no Barkley, this guy would've been the 1.01...

I never even got the hype with Guice to begin with. He was the 7th RB drafted that year. I just was happy he was going to be selected before any of my picks. Which I then burned on Sony and RoJo/Kerryon *genius*

As stacked as that RB class was supposed to be, it really only has Barkley and Chubb to show for it. I know that's still better than most but Chubb was debated anywhere from 1.03-6 that year, almost exclusively behind Guice. Usually Penny and Sony were in the mix there as well. Sometimes RoJo, Kerryon and Royce snuck up people's rankings too. Lots of injuries in that class starting to stack up and I'd say unless you got Chubb or Barkley, you wasted a 1st. Moore, Sutton and Ridley were both forgotten in a lot of drafts because of the RB hype

[jcc6fd]

For people debating Ben’s situation versus Guice’s you’re leaving out one key factor: the world is different today then it was when Ben’s allegations were levied. People trust women more, there is a societal expectation of justice for sexual violence and domestic violence, and information communication is much more instantaneous. You could recharacterize what I just said to say to call it “cancel culture,” or assuming guilt until proven innocent, but the reality is the same. It will be harder to come back from the public perception (factual or not) of being abusive toward women.

[Ice]

Imagine had there been no Barkley, this guy would've been the 1.01...

He wasn't even on my draft board in round 1 but I guess he would have been been drafted 1.1 by some.

On a side note; the crazy Woke Culture or Cancel Culture has nothing to do with guilt or innocence or even right or wrong. It is mainly a band of complete idiots that shouldn't be given much of a thought.

That said, Guice is done and it is foolish to even waste the roster space IMO.

[murphysxm]

I just submitted a claim for Jamycal Hasty and will be dropping him. Mostly a moral decision, but I see no way he contributes anything meaningful to the NFL