Thoughts on Mark Andrews

General talk about Dynasty Leagues.
Flgatorguy87
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Re: Why Mark Andrew's will finish 2020 as the #1 dynasty TE

Postby Flgatorguy87 » Mon May 11, 2020 12:49 pm

I read something on him around this time last year than convinced me he was going to breakout, so in my 2 TE league I got him for MVS straight up. I managed to be early on Kittle as well, so Kittle and Andrews are my starters.

I'll say the next guy I bought at TE is non other than his ex-teammate Hayden Hurst. I sent Breida and a 4th for Hurst and a 3rd to a rebuilding team. Could be a pick swap of 20ish spots if we finish how I think. I also think Hurst has some breakout potential. Let's see if I can go 3/3 on my buy early windows for TE.
Last edited by Flgatorguy87 on Mon May 11, 2020 1:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
SF PPR 30 man roster 5 taxi 2 IR
QB, 3WR, 2RB, 2TE, 2FLEX , Superflex

A. Rodgers, J. Goff, D. Lock, Ta. Hill

O. Beckham, Antonio Brown, M. Evans, A. Robinson, S. Diggs, C. Sutton, T. Boyd, Jakobi Meyers, S. Sims Jr., Darius Slayton

S. Barkley, Da. Cook, Cam Akers, JK Dobbins, R. Penny, Ronald Jones, W. Gallman, Duke Johnson, AJ Dillon, Darrynton Evans, DeeJay Dallas, L. Perine

G. Kittle, M. Andrews, H. Hurst

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Re: Why Mark Andrew's will finish 2020 as the #1 dynasty TE

Postby CGW » Mon May 11, 2020 1:31 pm

Andrews may not be quite as athletic, but if you've watched him play he's pretty impressive. I am purely basing this off eye test, but kittle looks quicker and faster, while Andrews looks stronger and plays bigger. His strength really reminds me of early Gronk, routinely plowing through defenders. May not be good for his longevity, but neither of these guys has a clean slate with injuries.

I'm all for Andrews at TE1. He was a preseason waiver add for me in all of my leagues. Realistically, I think he is more in the 2-5 range after Kittle, but his price seems to be much lower than Kittle in the drafts I've seen.

Sternberg and Hurst are two TE I like to breakout. Hurst in 2020, Sternberg over 2020-21.
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QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, FL, SF

QB | Murray, Prescott
RB | Jeff Wilson, Pierre-Strong
WR | Adams, Olave, ARSB, Dotson, Addison
TE | Andrews, Otton, Bellinger, Likely, Okonkwo
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RB | Montgomery, Swift, Dobbins, Singletary, Jamaal Williams, R. White, Davis-Price, Herbert, Miller
WR | Godwin, AJB, Lamb, D. Johnson, M. Brown, Mooney, Kirk, J. Williams, Skyy Moore, Watson
TE | Andrews, Bellinger, Dulcich
2024 | 1st, 2nd, 3rd

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RB | ETN, Pacheco, Ford, Warren
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Re: Why Mark Andrew's will finish 2020 as the #1 dynasty TE

Postby Cameron Giles » Mon May 11, 2020 1:41 pm

You always have to ask yourself a simple question: Which TEs have the clearest path to dominating a high percentage of targets in the most high octane offenses?

Mark Andrews certainly belongs on this list:

1. Travis Kelce: 136 targets, 24.3% share
2. Mark Andrews: 98 targets, 23.1% share
3. George Kittle: 107 targets, 22.9% share
4. Zach Ertz: 135 targets, 22.3% share

It's easily one of those 4 with Darren Waller as a darkhorse.

I don't think I would say Andrews, because he plays on a team that's going to pass for the least amount of yards. I'm going with Kelce as the safe bet, who remains in an elite situation as an elite talent. Also, I'd be buying Ertz if anyone is worried about his decline last year.

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Re: Why Mark Andrew's will finish 2020 as the #1 dynasty TE

Postby Sriracha » Mon May 11, 2020 2:29 pm

ericanadian wrote: Mon May 11, 2020 12:32 pm I don’t really buy into the direct idea that increase in snap count percentage will translate directly to increased production percentage. A lot of those missed snaps were running plays where the TEs were brought in to block. That said, there is some reason to expect increased stats with the increased snaps and I would think it reasonable to expect that to offset this point below and maybe get him a bit of a boost beyond that, but not sure he’s going to put up the TE1 numbers. Keep in mind that Kittle had some massive regression from his peak in 2018 last year and could end up somewhere between 2018 & 2019 in 2020.
Vcize wrote: Mon May 11, 2020 11:45 am I like Andrews a lot but I do not think it should be overlooked that his numbers regressed significantly once teams realized he was the TE to worry about rather than Hurst.

He had 100+ yards and 8 receptions in each of his first 2 games (against the two worst teams in the league at defending TEs to boot). He never reached 100 yards nor 8 receptions in a game the entire rest of the season.
I think teams realized that he was the TE to worry about in 2018. I think your point about him playing the two worst teams in the league is more relevant.

He did also get to 99 yards in week 6 and 93 yards in week 15. I suspect many TEs put up their best numbers against Arizona last year. Not sure why it matters that it happened in week one for Andrews.
~Ding ding ding~

I was a massive Mark Andrews fan coming into 2019; tried to acquire him everywhere before he blew up-- but I did this knowing he wasn't quite on the level of Kelce/Kittle and never will be. His fantasy output is a mesh of him being a relatively dynamic athlete at his size + a lack of target competition in BAL. Luckily he survived another draft with the only WR the Ravens added being Duvernay, but he's still a guy who's market share will be strongly impacted by the receivers around him.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying that he's not an elite TE -- he absolutely is. But if you can get Kittle prices for him, that's what I'd consider selling high.

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Re: Why Mark Andrew's will finish 2020 as the #1 dynasty TE

Postby DJB » Mon May 11, 2020 4:13 pm

IZigUZag wrote: Mon May 11, 2020 2:29 pm I was a massive Mark Andrews fan coming into 2019; tried to acquire him everywhere before he blew up-- but I did this knowing he wasn't quite on the level of Kelce/Kittle and never will be. His fantasy output is a mesh of him being a relatively dynamic athlete at his size + a lack of target competition in BAL. Luckily he survived another draft with the only WR the Ravens added being Duvernay, but he's still a guy who's market share will be strongly impacted by the receivers around him.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying that he's not an elite TE -- he absolutely is. But if you can get Kittle prices for him, that's what I'd consider selling high.
What I'm suggesting though is that you can still buy Andrew's at TE3 prices and he could return as the TE1 at the end of 2020.

At which point if you wanted to sell him I'd fully endorse that.

I do think in terms of pure talent he is behind Ertz, Kittle, Kelce etc. But it's about the entirety of the situation and player whereby he is very fantasy productive and relevant.
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Re: Why Mark Andrew's will finish 2020 as the #1 ranked dynasty TE

Postby Csl312 » Mon May 11, 2020 6:40 pm

He may very well be the #1TE after this season. But I would hardly consider the OP estimates "conservative". It's not really reasonable to extrapolate points by projected increase targets. Especially when that increase itself is no sure thing. But the biggest question which ericanadian touched on, is even if a TE is on the field for more snaps, how many of those is he actually running a route? How often is he used to block?

Does anyone collect those data on TEs in general? It would be really interesting to see and potentially pretty useful for evaluating the position.

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Re: Why Mark Andrew's will finish 2020 as the #1 ranked dynasty TE

Postby saw061600 » Mon May 11, 2020 6:49 pm

Too late to buy Andrews. Bought him or drafted him everywhere first 2 years. He profiled as a Kelce clone in analytics and he's living up to it so far. Hoping he's on the field 75% plus this year and then he and Kelce (most leagues) give me an extra option at WR flex. You need to look to the next potential TE rather than pay premium now for Andrews.
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Re: Why Mark Andrew's will finish 2020 as the #1 ranked dynasty TE

Postby Sriracha » Mon May 11, 2020 7:00 pm

saw061600 wrote: Mon May 11, 2020 6:49 pm Too late to buy Andrews. Bought him or drafted him everywhere first 2 years. He profiled as a Kelce clone in analytics and he's living up to it so far. Hoping he's on the field 75% plus this year and then he and Kelce (most leagues) give me an extra option at WR flex. You need to look to the next potential TE rather than pay premium now for Andrews.
100% agreed.

In 2017 George Kittle shined like a diamond.
In 2018 Mark Andrews was the hidden gem.

I've got nothing I'm remotely sure of in 2020. Closest I've got is Noah Fant, but he's not easy to acquire and he just got a bleep ton of target competition in the draft. I guess Kahale Warring given his predraft profile + the target vacuum left after the Hopkins trade? Still, I'm not that confident given that we don't have a rookie season to dissect with him.

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Re: Why Mark Andrew's will finish 2020 as the #1 ranked dynasty TE

Postby ericanadian » Mon May 11, 2020 7:10 pm

Csl312 wrote: Mon May 11, 2020 6:40 pm He may very well be the #1TE after this season. But I would hardly consider the OP estimates "conservative". It's not really reasonable to extrapolate points by projected increase targets. Especially when that increase itself is no sure thing. But the biggest question which ericanadian touched on, is even if a TE is on the field for more snaps, how many of those is he actually running a route? How often is he used to block?

Does anyone collect those data on TEs in general? It would be really interesting to see and potentially pretty useful for evaluating the position.
It’s available, though not exactly easy to pull up en masse.

Mark Andrews was on the field for 164 rushing plays last year. Hayden Hurst was on the field for 244 rushing plays. Nick Boyle was on the field for 493 rushing plays for whatever that’s worth.
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RB - Swift, Hall, Penny, Bigsby, Ford
WR - Pittman, Olave, Di. Johnson, G. Wilson, J. Williams, Metchie, Robinson, M. Wilson
TE - Okonkwo, Schoonmaker
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Re: Why Mark Andrew's will finish 2020 as the #1 ranked dynasty TE

Postby mullmania » Tue May 12, 2020 5:16 am

Own a bunch of copies. Agree he could def boom and take a next step.

His tds masked some lower volume compared to the elite tier last year IMO.

After his huge week 1 and 2 he was TE #9 in average points per game. Cook and Will Dissley scored slightly more per game than him

In PPR he was under 4 catches in 6 of 15 games

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Re: Why Mark Andrew's will finish 2020 as the #1 ranked dynasty TE

Postby Shankopotamus » Tue May 12, 2020 5:24 am

Just go buy Hayden Hurst at a fraction of the cost.
12 Team Super-Flex TEP Dynasty
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1 QB, 3 RB, 4 WR, Flex, SF, 2 TE

3 DL, 3 LB, 3 DB, 1 Flex IDP


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RB- D’Andre Swift, Nick Chubb, Javonte Williams, Cam Akers, Kyren Williams, Jerome Ford, D’Ernest Johnson, Darrell Henderson
WR- DK Metcalf, DJ Moore, Chris Godwin, Jameson Williams, Gabe Davis, Hollywood Brown, Josh Reynolds, Calvin Austin, Laviska Shenault, Kyle Phillips
TE-Mark Andrews, Greg Dulcich, Isaiah Likely, Donald Parham, Tyler Conklin
DL-Danielle Hunter, Nick Bosa, Deforest Buckner, Jonathon Allen
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Re: Why Mark Andrew's will finish 2020 as the #1 ranked dynasty TE

Postby John Paul » Mon May 18, 2020 9:52 am

He's had a solid rookie campaign followed by a breakout sophomore year. I see no reason why his numbers won't improve in season three.
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RB: Jonathan Taylor(Trade '21), ETN(trade '22), Breece Hall(1.02 '22), Deon Jackson (WW '23), Michael Carter (trade '23)
WR: Drake London (Trade '23), Jahan Dotson (Trade "23), Allen Robinson (Trade '22), Brandin Cooks (Trade '23), John Metchie III(2.02 "23), Rondale Moore(Trade '21), Kyle Philips(4.05 '22), Curtis Samuel (Trade '23)
TE: Kyle Pitts(Trade '22), Logan Thomas (WW "23)
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Re: Why Mark Andrew's will finish 2020 as the #1 dynasty TE

Postby Orenthal Shames » Mon May 18, 2020 10:37 am

CGW wrote: Mon May 11, 2020 1:31 pm He was a preseason waiver add for me in all of my leagues.
Waivers? He was a top 25 rookie pick that finished as a high end TE2. You guys need deeper leagues.
16 team league
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QB: Watson, Flacco
RB: Bijan, Gibbs, McLaughlin
WR: Olave, Addison, Flowers, Rice, Downs, Mims, Douglas, Tillman
TE: Kittle, Chig, Woods
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Re: Why Mark Andrew's will finish 2020 as the #1 dynasty TE

Postby lukkynumber13 » Mon May 18, 2020 12:35 pm

FantasyFreak wrote: Mon May 11, 2020 10:48 am Not enough passing volume, and not an elite talent compared to the other top guys IMO. I'm not buying Andrews because everywhere I have inquired, his owners have already baked in your theory into his cost. I'd still rather have Kittle over a 3-5 year period, in a vacuum, too. He's still a top 3 guy, and another good year I'd put him at TE 2. If he and Kittle have the same type of years I'd still want Kittle, though. I'm just more sold on his talent.
I will co-sign on all this.

Andrews is a nice talent, and I would love to own him anywhere as long as he’s tied to LJax, but he’s not a superstar receiver like Kelce & Kittle are, and he’s definitely not a valued blocker like Kittle or prime Gronk, meaning his value to his NFL team is lessened.

I think at best he’s an Ertz-level TE, at worst (if he goes to a new team without his current situation) he’s Jared Cook - mid to low end TE1 who’s TD dependent. Not a bad asset at all, but I don’t think he’s the next coming of Tony Gonzalez or anything.
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BIJAN/KAMARA/MIXON, A Jones
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Re: Why Mark Andrew's will finish 2020 as the #1 ranked dynasty TE

Postby hockeyBjj » Tue May 19, 2020 9:06 am

I bought him before the 2019 season in two leagues for cheap, one of them a TE premium

Image

It's too late to get him now unless you want to pay Kittleesque price. Every owner saw what he did, and saw Hurst leave

Don't think if he'll be the #1 ranked TE, but with Kelce up in age and Ertz dissapearing for half of last season, Kittle and Andrews are the 1 and 2 imo
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