Thoughts on Mark Andrews

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DJB
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Why Mark Andrew's will finish 2020 as the #1 ranked dynasty TE

Postby DJB » Mon May 11, 2020 10:28 am

Hey guys thought I'd share some info on Mark Andrew's and his possible future outlook

I posted this on twitter but thought it would also be deserving in the forums
https://mobile.twitter.com/dynastylife_ ... 9271475200

Did you know that Mark Andrew's ranked 39th for all tight ends in the % of total team snap counts in 2019?

Yes. 39th. With a total team share of just 41.5%

Kelce was #1 with a 92.6% share
Waller #2 with 90.6%
Ertz # 3 with 80.5%
Kittle #6 with 75%

In 2019 here were Andrews final fantasy points scoring for tight ends

#2 TE in standard format ahead of Kittle, but behind Kelce
#4 TE in half PPR behind Kelce, Kittle, and Waller.
#5 TE in full PPR behind those three and Ertz.

We know that Hayden Hurst and his 41.4 % of total team snap contain 2019 when he left Baltimore

Is M Andrew's going to gobble all of those snaps up? Unlikely. Even if he was given half, Andrews would only have finished #20 in 2019 for TE total team snap counts.

Let's say Andrew's is given 1/2 Haydens snaps so about 60% of the total team snap counts. If we use his 2019 fantasy points per target, and his overall points along with increase in snap total count by our estimated 20%, he would have finished as the #1 TE

With that data we can conservatively guess that Andrew's would have finished with an avg of 17.5 fantasy points per game in 2019 in 1/2 PPR. Easily surpassing both Kelce and Kittle who avg 12.9 fantasy points per game.

Andrew's is entering his 3rd NFL season and is only 23 years old. Kittle (26), and Kelce (30) y/o.

Andrew's is also tied to Lamar Jackson for the foreseeable future and appears to be the #1 passing target in Baltimore. Buy Mark Andrews. NOW!

We aren't taking into account whatever scheme and personelle additions and subtractions. We are basing everything off how each tight end finished in 2019 and using some data to take a conservative guess on the future. I hope you enjoyed this thread.
Last edited by DJB on Mon May 11, 2020 3:10 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: Why Mark Andrew's will finish 2020 as the #1 dynasty TE

Postby nathanq42 » Mon May 11, 2020 10:30 am

yeah i've been trying hard to snag andrews
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Re: Why Mark Andrew's will finish 2020 as the #1 dynasty TE

Postby DJB » Mon May 11, 2020 10:32 am

nathanq42 wrote: Mon May 11, 2020 10:30 am yeah i've been trying hard to snag andrews
I'm all over him right now. Was able to get him in an ongoing SF TE premium startup in a deal.

I moved

Kittle, 2021 4th, 2022 4th

For

Andrew's, K Drake, 2021 2nd, 2022 1st.

I was extremely pleased with the return.
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Re: Why Mark Andrew's will finish 2020 as the #1 dynasty TE

Postby Jigga94 » Mon May 11, 2020 10:33 am

I'm down for this becoming a reality

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Re: Why Mark Andrew's will finish 2020 as the #1 dynasty TE

Postby jimmycricket14 » Mon May 11, 2020 10:38 am

Traded Andrews for Marquise Brown in the middle of last season so I am watching very closely how the target share develops next year between the two of them.

Interesting that the top two targets from the Ravens both had extremely low snap rates last year. They both project to get a pretty big increase in snaps this year and both have big upside because of this but I doubt they both get a huge bump in production. I see one of them getting over drafted based on this line of thinking.

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Re: Why Mark Andrew's will finish 2020 as the #1 dynasty TE

Postby DJB » Mon May 11, 2020 10:42 am

If anyone is on Twitter I would super appreciate a like or even a retweet. It would be absolutely outstanding and I'd very much appreciate it fellas.

I know how tight these forums are and how awesome this community here is.

Thanks guys.
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Re: Why Mark Andrew's will finish 2020 as the #1 dynasty TE

Postby FantasyFreak » Mon May 11, 2020 10:48 am

Not enough passing volume, and not an elite talent compared to the other top guys IMO. I'm not buying Andrews because everywhere I have inquired, his owners have already baked in your theory into his cost. I'd still rather have Kittle over a 3-5 year period, in a vacuum, too. He's still a top 3 guy, and another good year I'd put him at TE 2. If he and Kittle have the same type of years I'd still want Kittle, though. I'm just more sold on his talent.
Last edited by FantasyFreak on Mon May 11, 2020 10:51 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Why Mark Andrew's will finish 2020 as the #1 dynasty TE

Postby DJB » Mon May 11, 2020 10:51 am

FantasyFreak wrote: Mon May 11, 2020 10:48 am I'll take the bet on no. Not enough passing volume, and not an elite talent compared to the other top guys IMO. I'm not buying Andrews because everywhere I have inquired, his owners have already baked in your theory into his cost.
So owners are asking for #1 dynasty TE returns?

I'm shocked by that if what I'm reading what you wrote is true. Everywhere I've gone to purchase him it's been clearly #3 TE prices or worse.
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Re: Why Mark Andrew's will finish 2020 as the #1 dynasty TE

Postby FantasyFreak » Mon May 11, 2020 10:52 am

DJB wrote: Mon May 11, 2020 10:51 am
FantasyFreak wrote: Mon May 11, 2020 10:48 am I'll take the bet on no. Not enough passing volume, and not an elite talent compared to the other top guys IMO. I'm not buying Andrews because everywhere I have inquired, his owners have already baked in your theory into his cost.
So owners are asking for #1 dynasty TE returns?

I'm shocked by that if what I'm reading what you wrote is true. Everywhere I've gone to purchase him it's been clearly #3 TE prices or worse.
Close to, yes. Due to age, like you stated. I know that they won't move him for Kelce straight up, for instance. Even if Andrews is the top ranked Dynasty TE, which he actually might be, I would not move Kittle for him straight up next year unless something drastic happened. So I suppose you may be right about his ranking by the overall community, but I will be hard pressed to move him above Kittle in a year.
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Re: Why Mark Andrew's will finish 2020 as the #1 dynasty TE

Postby DJB » Mon May 11, 2020 11:00 am

FantasyFreak wrote: Mon May 11, 2020 10:52 am
DJB wrote: Mon May 11, 2020 10:51 am
FantasyFreak wrote: Mon May 11, 2020 10:48 am I'll take the bet on no. Not enough passing volume, and not an elite talent compared to the other top guys IMO. I'm not buying Andrews because everywhere I have inquired, his owners have already baked in your theory into his cost.
So owners are asking for #1 dynasty TE returns?

I'm shocked by that if what I'm reading what you wrote is true. Everywhere I've gone to purchase him it's been clearly #3 TE prices or worse.
Close to, yes. Due to age, like you stated. I know that they won't move him for Kelce straight up, for instance. Even if Andrews is the top ranked Dynasty TE, which he actually might be, I would not move Kittle for him straight up next year unless something drastic happened. So I suppose you may be right about his ranking by the overall community, but I will be hard pressed to move him above Kittle in a year.

That's fair enough. And I do think Kelce age here is really working against him in terms of his dynasty value. If ages were all equal he would be my #1, but we aren't playing that way lol.
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Re: Why Mark Andrew's will finish 2020 as the #1 dynasty TE

Postby Shankopotamus » Mon May 11, 2020 11:06 am

This would please me very much. I actually think Hurst finishes top 5 this year also.

Andrews isn't as athletically gifted as Kelce,Kittle, or Ertz. He's benefitted from there not being an Alpha receiver in Baltimore, and it looks like there won't be one there this year either unless Hollywood defies all odds.
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Re: Why Mark Andrew's will finish 2020 as the #1 dynasty TE

Postby Vcize » Mon May 11, 2020 11:45 am

I like Andrews a lot but I do not think it should be overlooked that his numbers regressed significantly once teams realized he was the TE to worry about rather than Hurst.

He had 100+ yards and 8 receptions in each of his first 2 games (against the two worst teams in the league at defending TEs to boot). He never reached 100 yards nor 8 receptions in a game the entire rest of the season.
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Re: Why Mark Andrew's will finish 2020 as the #1 dynasty TE

Postby joeya2001 » Mon May 11, 2020 11:49 am

Vcize wrote: Mon May 11, 2020 11:45 am I like Andrews a lot but I do not think it should be overlooked that his numbers regressed significantly once teams realized he was the TE to worry about rather than Hurst.

He had 100+ yards and 8 receptions in each of his first 2 games (against the two worst teams in the league at defending TEs to boot). He never reached 100 yards nor 8 receptions in a game the entire rest of the season.
That is a good point, I went back to look because it just seemed like every week he was putting up big numbers, but he caught a lot of TD's 10 TD's. those saved a lot of his games I guess.
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Re: Why Mark Andrew's will finish 2020 as the #1 dynasty TE

Postby DJB » Mon May 11, 2020 11:51 am

I do think and have some concerns that his TD production will regress per snap count, but I'm confident that his overall yards production will help mitigate that with his likely increased usage
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Re: Why Mark Andrew's will finish 2020 as the #1 dynasty TE

Postby ericanadian » Mon May 11, 2020 12:32 pm

I don’t really buy into the direct idea that increase in snap count percentage will translate directly to increased production percentage. A lot of those missed snaps were running plays where the TEs were brought in to block. That said, there is some reason to expect increased stats with the increased snaps and I would think it reasonable to expect that to offset this point below and maybe get him a bit of a boost beyond that, but not sure he’s going to put up the TE1 numbers. Keep in mind that Kittle had some massive regression from his peak in 2018 last year and could end up somewhere between 2018 & 2019 in 2020.
Vcize wrote: Mon May 11, 2020 11:45 am I like Andrews a lot but I do not think it should be overlooked that his numbers regressed significantly once teams realized he was the TE to worry about rather than Hurst.

He had 100+ yards and 8 receptions in each of his first 2 games (against the two worst teams in the league at defending TEs to boot). He never reached 100 yards nor 8 receptions in a game the entire rest of the season.
I think teams realized that he was the TE to worry about in 2018. I think your point about him playing the two worst teams in the league is more relevant.

He did also get to 99 yards in week 6 and 93 yards in week 15. I suspect many TEs put up their best numbers against Arizona last year. Not sure why it matters that it happened in week one for Andrews.
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