Thoughts on Mark Andrews

[ArrylT]

https://www.nfl.com/news/mark-andrews-b ... ay-for-her

Funny how death can inspire us to new heights but glad he was able to play after the loss of a loved one.

[dondickenson]

TE leaders 2016-2021, 0.5PPR:

2016
Kelce 180.5 points, 11.3ppg

2017
Gronk 192.8, 14.8
Kelce 192.0, 12.8

2018
Kelce 243.1, 15.2
Ertz 223.2, 13.9
Kittle 214.7, 13.4

2019
Kelce 205.9, 12.9
Kittle 180.0, 12.9

2020
Kelce 260.3, 17.4
Waller 225.1, 14.1

2021
Andrews 235.1, 14.7
Kelce 205.4, 13.7
Kittle 159.0, 12.2

In the past 6 seasons, only 4 TEs have averaged over 14.0 ppg 0.5ppr. Kelce 2x, Gronk, Waller, and Andrews.

Kelce did it at 29 and 31 yo, Gronk 28, Waller 28. Andrews just achieved that feat, playing a whole 16 games, with 2 backup QBs down the stretch, at 26 years of age.

Andrews’ 2021 total points scored is 3rd highest in the past 6 seasons out of all TE performances. His ppg is 4th.

Imo, Andrews is in the top 2 TEs in dynasty along with young Kyle Pitts. I do admit Pitts is probably(definitely? unanimously?) number 1, but man it is hard to overstate how good Andrews was this year, and what the next 5 years might bring for him based on historical precedent.

[Jigga94]

Pretty sure I got him free off waivers in both leagues when everyone was too busy talking about Hayden Hurst and how he would come back from injury. Has to be one of my best moves.

I've even tried dealing him before and glad it never worked out

[dondickenson]

Pretty sure I got him free off waivers in both leagues when everyone was too busy talking about Hayden Hurst and how he would come back from injury. Has to be one of my best moves.

I've even tried dealing him before and glad it never worked out

Same, I drafted both Hurst and Andrews that year(2018) to my main league roster that was TE needy behind Kelce, and ended up dropping Andrews for a number of weeks that season while sorting out the end of my roster. Nobody picked him up and I managed to get him back. Then sold Kelce for 2020 2x1sts + 3rd that ended up being 1.07(Jeudy) 1.08(Jefferson) and 3.08(Irv Smith). Let’s just say I am quite happy with how it all worked out.

Edit: also had a negotiation going on to trade away Andrews early this season. Other owner wanted Andrews + likely late 2022 1st for Goedert + Sanders. I was ready to give Andrews straight up for Goedert + Sanders. He wouldn’t do it. I’m glad he wouldn’t. Phew

[Jfever]

Highest scoring TE in our DLF league by 33 points over Kelce. 90 points over Kittle, Andrews is 25 years old, 7 years younger than Kelce and heavily involved in the Baltimore passing game regardless of who is behind center.

The takes in this thread.... smh.

[CGW]

Pretty sure I got him free off waivers in both leagues when everyone was too busy talking about Hayden Hurst and how he would come back from injury. Has to be one of my best moves.

I've even tried dealing him before and glad it never worked out

I had to double take to see if this was something I wrote. I also own two shares (at the time only had two dynasties) that I picked up as waivers mid rookie season when he started seeing snap count increases. Like you, im thankful for all of the declined trade offers. Just got another where I offered Andrews for Pitts.

I don't really see any aggregious posts in this thread. Mostly just people saying don't draft TE in the first round, which is nothing new and generally true. Add Andrews to the list of later round TE prospects to break out. Pitts will be the exception/outlier, rather than the norm.

[thebeast]

No doubt about it anymore, Adnrews is elite. Reading this thread from the beginning is a train wreck

[_yeti]

Took heat in my league chat by trading (sig league):

Mike Evans, 2022 2nd
For
Mark Andrews, 2022 5th

I hadn't won since 2018 and my position of need that I felt was lagging on the team was TE. I paid more on paper/consensus value by adding the 2nd to grease the wheel to do the deal. I figured that I was now strong at WR, Evans was hitting that age where production could fall off soon, and I was locking up a young top 3 positional asset in a shallow position in Andrews. Also TE has had more longevity for elite assets compared to WR/RB.

I heard that it may have been one of the best trades in the league all-time (for my opponent), I disagreed. Very happy with it now

[Jigga94]

Took heat in my league chat by trading (sig league):

Mike Evans, 2022 2nd
For
Mark Andrews, 2022 5th

I hadn't won since 2018 and my position of need that I felt was lagging on the team was TE. I paid more on paper/consensus value by adding the 2nd to grease the wheel to do the deal. I figured that I was now strong at WR, Evans was hitting that age where production could fall off soon, and I was locking up a young top 3 positional asset in a shallow position in Andrews. Also TE has had more longevity for elite assets compared to WR/RB.

I heard that it may have been one of the best trades in the league all-time (for my opponent), I disagreed. Very happy with it now

As undervalued as Evans has been, I'm surprised there was a lopsided reception of the trade (assuming it happened this year).

[_yeti]

As undervalued as Evans has been, I'm surprised there was a lopsided reception of the trade (assuming it happened this year).

I guess in hindsight it may have been one voice the loudest and my trade partner excited about the congrats. Some of that may have just been wanting to give me crap for "losing" the trade in a vacuum (which I didn't think I did but certainly a lot of listed dynasty values at the time would say I did). Think it was in May or something of last year

[TimeWillTell]

I traded Andrews+Evans for 1.02 in 2021. Then traded back to 1.03 when I got an insane offer of 2 2023 1st (Pitts went first, guy really wanted Harris) So basically: Andrews+Evans for Chase+2023 1st+2023 1st. Love that for me but now I'd love to have Andrews back. Hock injuries and riding Everett into the playoffs wasn't confidence inspiring. What's Andrews worth now?

[remedy29]

I do not disagree that Andrews is a top/ elite TE. However his career year was aided by the 2 backup QBs (33% of his offensive production came in the 4 games with the backups). He was also aided by Baltimore's significant increase in passing yards per game, significant decrease in rushing yards and a poor defense. I am not sure what Andrews target share was, but with Bateman and the other WRs, his target share may not be as high moving forward.

But he is a top talent with age on his side, so safe bet for high TE1 seasons, I just wouldn't expect a repeat of 2021.

[dondickenson]

Ravens target share:

2020
M Andrews 24.7% (88 targets/406 attempts, but only 14 games played)
M Brown 24.6% (100/406)

2021
M Andrews 23.8% (138/579)
M Brown 23.8% (138/579)

So, while their target share did both go down a bit, you’re right they Ravens pass catchers were buoyed in 2021 by vastly increased passing volume in the offense. Could definitely be a problem going forward if Ravens don’t continue to throw at higher pace like this.

[_yeti]

I do not disagree that Andrews is a top/ elite TE. However his career year was aided by the 2 backup QBs (33% of his offensive production came in the 4 games with the backups). He was also aided by Baltimore's significant increase in passing yards per game, significant decrease in rushing yards and a poor defense. I am not sure what Andrews target share was, but with Bateman and the other WRs, his target share may not be as high moving forward.

But he is a top talent with age on his side, so safe bet for high TE1 seasons, I just wouldn't expect a repeat of 2021.

I get your point on paper but I have to respectfully disagree. I see in Andrews the kind of production where the defense knows the offense wants to go his way and can't stop it, like a Kelce. The guy is a house of a TE but he reminds me of a mixture of Kelce and Witten with his routes, hands, athleticism (especially after catch for a TE), and his ability like Witten to perfectly find holes in zones and just make the absolute most of his routes and always manage to make a play. I have always argued against target share being a metric for elite guys and I think he is similar to a Kelce in that the targets will be there for him because his talent demands it, not because of the situation. That he produced with the backups who were limited downfield so allowing the defense to focus more on him only aids his cause in my opinion. Decrease in an effective rushing offense does not aid him in my opinion as it just allows teams to commit less to the run.

I see why you make your argument on paper but I just disagree. Can never statistically guarantee a repeat of what he did but I wouldn't knock him value for the things you mention. His target share may also have risen due to having more years on the team and it being realized what he's capable of. Basically all these target share arguments come from the perspective that how much he got the rock was the result of everything other than how good he himself is. I mean I think back to that game he almost won single-handedly and they were force-feeding him the rock and he was coming up huge every single time.

On a contending team he's in make me an offer I can't refuse territory or a hold. Only have him on my sig team and a TE like that who is a constant set and forget regardless of matchup is worth his weight in gold

[DJB]

I'm glad i bought last years price dip.

I was a year off but Andrews ADP is neck and neck with Pitts