John toss?

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Phaded
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Re: John toss?

Postby Phaded » Thu Dec 07, 2017 3:19 pm

John Ross is just a guy I am not interested in owning and I think he has bust written all over him.
This is just another classic NFL example of a guy getting way too much hype because of a 40 time.

That said - in deep leagues he could be a stash / buy low type, but personally I would not be bothering as I just don't see it.

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Re: John toss?

Postby Jason3123 » Thu Dec 07, 2017 3:27 pm

Name me a 1st round WR to be good after going catch-less his rookie season? I'll be waiting.

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Re: John toss?

Postby Phaded » Thu Dec 07, 2017 3:34 pm

Jason3123 wrote:
Thu Dec 07, 2017 3:27 pm
Name me a 1st round WR to be good after going catch-less his rookie season? I'll be waiting.
With all fairness - aside from a couple recent examples, I don't think I can even name one who didn't have a catch in their rookie season; let alone the being good thing. So I don't think it is a fair sample size based on that alone.

...Like I said though, I don't believe in Ross. Just playing devils advocate to your statement.

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Re: John toss?

Postby Jason3123 » Thu Dec 07, 2017 4:46 pm

Phaded wrote:
Thu Dec 07, 2017 3:34 pm
Jason3123 wrote:
Thu Dec 07, 2017 3:27 pm
Name me a 1st round WR to be good after going catch-less his rookie season? I'll be waiting.
With all fairness - aside from a couple recent examples, I don't think I can even name one who didn't have a catch in their rookie season; let alone the being good thing. So I don't think it is a fair sample size based on that alone.

...Like I said though, I don't believe in Ross. Just playing devils advocate to your statement.
You can definitely play devil's advocate against my argument. But if Ross does it then he would be the first. Same with White, and Perriman. Sucker bet to invest in Ross for anything remotely pricey. Will most likely be a roster clogger.

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Re: John toss?

Postby TheWaiverWire » Thu Dec 07, 2017 5:10 pm

Three things.
1) he has barely played, so it's honestly too early to tell if he has what it takes to be a NFL wr, let alone a stud

2) imo one of the most extremely over rated stats is the 40 yard dash. While he is fast over short distances, this doesn't take in to consideration fatigue throughout the game. Is he running a 4.2x 40 in the fourth quarter on a short week? Probably not.

3) if you drafted or traded Ross, chances are it involved a 1st round pick. No way you are getting that value back now, and if you can, take it. Otherwise hold on to him

Just my take on him, as a guy who owns him on my dynasty/salary team
MFL Dynasty/Salary League
QB- Luck, Trubisky
RB- Zeke, Duke, Foreman, Ekeler
WR- A-Rob, Coleman, Ross, Samuel
TE- Witten, Reed, Kroft
DL- Lawrence, Irving, Flowers
LB- Lee, Campbell, Ford, Kerrigan
DB- Lattimore, Bell, Sorenson, Heath
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P- Chris Jones
K- Harrison Butker
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Re: John toss?

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Thu Dec 07, 2017 5:21 pm

The thread title sums it up nicely. I actually liked Ross as a player, he was no OBJ or anything but he was a solid player imo with gamebreaking speed. Those saying he's a bust b/c he got hurt... eh that's pretty disingenuous unless you thought he'd be a bust b/c he'd always be hurt (and in fairness many did think that). Cinci are idiots for using him as a ball carrier out of the backfield. You don't put an injury prone rookie in that position. Just because he was over-drafted doesn't mean he's a bad player. I personally stayed away from him in the 1st round because so many were down on him, I knew if something happened like what has happened he'd be impossible to move, perhaps for years.

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Re: John toss?

Postby ericanadian » Thu Dec 07, 2017 5:24 pm

Jason3123 wrote:
Thu Dec 07, 2017 3:27 pm
Name me a 1st round WR to be good after going catch-less his rookie season? I'll be waiting.
If you want to be a stickler on the zero, Wes Welker would be the first that comes to mind.

Vincent Jackson had 3 catches his rookie season. It's not zero, but close enough.
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Re: John toss?

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Thu Dec 07, 2017 5:33 pm

ericanadian wrote:
Thu Dec 07, 2017 5:24 pm
Jason3123 wrote:
Thu Dec 07, 2017 3:27 pm
Name me a 1st round WR to be good after going catch-less his rookie season? I'll be waiting.
If you want to be a stickler on the zero, Wes Welker would be the first that comes to mind.

Vincent Jackson had 3 catches his rookie season. It's not zero, but close enough.
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Re: John toss?

Postby Jigga94 » Thu Dec 07, 2017 6:40 pm

yes toss Ross
2QB, 2RB, 3WR, TE, FLEX - PPR - [b]14 Keepers[/b]
QB: Mahomes, J. Allen, Baker, D. Jones, Eason
RB: JT, Mostert, Gaskin, Dillon, Gus, Mattison, McFarland, Snell, Wilson, McKissic, Darrel
WR: Tyreek, DJM, Jeudy, Hollywood, Cooks, Mims, Hardman, Preston, Parris
TE: Andrews, Fant, Henry
2021: 1.10, 2, 3, 4, 5.08, 5.10, 6, 7, 9, 10

2QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, 3FLEX - PPR - [b]20 Keepers[/b]
QB: [b]Mahomes, Ryan,[/b] Minshew, Trubisky, Mariota
RB: [b]Saquon, Jacobs, Dobbins, Hunt,[/b] Penny, Snell
WR: [b]AJB, DJM, Chark, Ruggs, Hardman, Mike Will, C. Davis, C. Samuel,[/b] G. Davis, Mooney, Lazard, J. Washington
TE: [b]Andrews, Henry, Gesicki, Tonyan,[/b] Irv
2021: 1.03, 2.05, 2.09, 3.05, 3.09
2022: 1, 1, 2, 3, 3

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Re: John toss?

Postby steelman » Thu Dec 07, 2017 6:44 pm

cp3 wrote:
Thu Dec 07, 2017 10:39 am

The list of players who go on to successful careers after literally doing nothing their rookie season is minuscule, so while there's always a chance he bounces back and excels, he's on the wrong side of historical data right now.
Apples to oranges. How many 1st round picks that did nothing due to injury went on to have a successful career? How many 1st round WR's in general go on to have successful careers vs those who are busts? Compare those numbers, then I'm interested, provided the sample size of the first group is big enough.

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Re: John toss?

Postby purplepride28 » Thu Dec 07, 2017 6:48 pm

Lequon Treadwell had 1 catch for 15 yards his rookie year. So he can be a pretty close example. This year 3/4 of the way through the season he has 15 catches for 161 yards. Only reason he is on the field is because of his run blocking ability

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Re: John toss?

Postby ColdZealDonkeyStrike » Thu Dec 07, 2017 9:56 pm

Jason3123 wrote:
Thu Dec 07, 2017 11:28 am
I preached selling Ross months ago because realistically what's his upside? Maybe if he hadn't been paired with Dalton, but he'll always be a 3rd option at best behind Green/RB's, maybe 4th behind the tight end. Dalton ain't supporting two top WR's though.

But now that he will go catchless in year 1, please abandon ship people. If you can acquire anything remotely useful in your starting lineups make the trade. Ross would be such an outlier at this point to become relevant, don't bet on that.
That's a whole lot of certainty off a small sample size.
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Re: John toss?

Postby ColdZealDonkeyStrike » Fri Dec 08, 2017 1:43 am

Jason3123 wrote:
Thu Dec 07, 2017 3:27 pm
Name me a 1st round WR to be good after going catch-less his rookie season? I'll be waiting.
Just from googling a few names, here are some highly drafted WRs who did very little in their 1st year and went on to be valuable fantasy and professional players:
1st Round: Herman Moore, Curtis Conway, Johnnie Morton, Plaxico Burress, Santana Moss, (still possible: Nelson Agholor)
2nd Round: Vincent Jackson, Jordy Nelson, Golden Tate, Greg Jennings
3rd Round: Steve Smith, Antonio Freeman

I was just thinking up names and googling them, so this is far from extensive. They don't fit the 1st round and absolutely nothing criteria (although technically Ross doesn't either since he has a 15-yard run), but I don't really see how such strict criteria helps to get any sort of indicative history.
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I probably should have done something more productive with that time...

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Re: John toss?

Postby cp3 » Fri Dec 08, 2017 5:58 am

I'm no pro-football-reference wiz, but here's the list from 1990-present of players drafted in the first 3 rounds who played less than 5 games had had less than 5 catches their rookie year. The best players on the list are probably Santana Moss and Ike Hilliard.

Someone who's better at the tool than me can probably refine it a little more if they so choose.

For single seasons, from 1990 to 2017, in rookie season, played in the NFL, played WR, drafted as WR, player was drafted in rounds 1 through 3, player was drafted, requiring Receptions <= 5 and Games <= 5, sorted by descending Year

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/ ... by=year_id

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Re: John toss?

Postby Jason3123 » Fri Dec 08, 2017 8:22 pm

You guys are missing my argument. I didn't say WR's who did "little", and I specifically said 1st round WR's. There are ZERO successful first round WR's who went catchless in year 1. That is my argument. I understand there are others. But that's not what I'm arguing. The fact is, Ross would be an outlier to be relevant at this point. Even if you did include the others. Don't waste your investment.


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