Lamar Miller (and D'Onta Foreman) in 2018

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Re: Lamar Miller (and D'Onta Foreman) in 2018

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Mon Nov 13, 2017 5:46 pm

Statistically, Foreman has been a better runner this season than Miller even though he's faced a league-leading 87% carry rate vs Base defense. So in a manner of speaking, Foreman has been the most screwed runner in the entire NFL within that context. Foreman's juke rate is 12th in the league and Yards Created per touch is 16th. So Foreman's rushing is not the issue, it's whether or not the coaching staff feels comfortable using him in passing situations, which just looking at the disparity in receptions between the 2 backs (22 receptions to 3 for Foreman) it's clear they prefer Miller. As long as Miller is on the roster, it's going to take Foreman clearly outplaying him (or of course a Miller injury) for Foreman to overtake him.

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Re: Lamar Miller (and D'Onta Foreman) in 2018

Postby ericanadian » Mon Nov 13, 2017 5:51 pm

Kramer wrote:
Mon Nov 13, 2017 5:42 pm
dynastyninja wrote:
Mon Nov 13, 2017 5:35 pm
Kramer wrote:
Mon Nov 13, 2017 4:59 pm
At this point, it'll take an injury to Miller and an ensuing breakout from Foreman for him to completely take over the backfield. He's flashed enough this year that I'm optimistic about his future should he ever get a big workload at some time.
This is exactly right, though I don't think Foreman is capable of a big enough breakout to warrant a full-out benching of Lamar.
I don't expect a full out benching. But if he broke out and started getting an 80/20 or 75/25 workload, I think most of us would be happy with that.
If you're talking touches, that's a pipe dream. Even if you're just talking carries, things would have to break perfectly for Foreman to pick up that kind of an advantage.
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Re: Lamar Miller (and D'Onta Foreman) in 2018

Postby ColdZealDonkeyStrike » Mon Nov 13, 2017 6:34 pm

Dynasty DeLorean wrote:
Mon Nov 13, 2017 5:46 pm
Statistically, Foreman has been a better runner this season than Miller even though he's faced a league-leading 87% carry rate vs Base defense. So in a manner of speaking, Foreman has been the most screwed runner in the entire NFL within that context.
I wouldn't say he has been screwed. He runs on a high percentage of the snaps he is in for, so it is just a tell to the defense that they are running when Foreman is in because he hasn't convinced the coaches to trust him in other aspects. It is similar to what happened with Mark Ingram his 1st couple of years in the league. Foreman owners can, of course, hope for a similar change in role as to what happened with Ingram, but I wouldn't call it a given that he will develop the same way.

I would be shocked if Miller is not back next year. The Texans have been top 5 in the league in rushing attempts every year under BOB. They are not going to cut a proven solid RB unless they really need the space, which they don't. I would guess the roles will be similar to what they are now, with maybe Foreman getting a more rushing work than he is now. It could also be similar to the Titans backfield right now. Where the carries are split pretty evenly, but DeMarco gets more receiving work. Hopefully with Watson back, the offense will work better than Tennessee's this year, and there will be a big enough pie for both to be startable.
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Re: Lamar Miller (and D'Onta Foreman) in 2018

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Mon Nov 13, 2017 6:52 pm

jtd1387 wrote:
Mon Nov 13, 2017 6:34 pm
Dynasty DeLorean wrote:
Mon Nov 13, 2017 5:46 pm
Statistically, Foreman has been a better runner this season than Miller even though he's faced a league-leading 87% carry rate vs Base defense. So in a manner of speaking, Foreman has been the most screwed runner in the entire NFL within that context.
I wouldn't say he has been screwed. He runs on a high percentage of the snaps he is in for, so it is just a tell to the defense that they are running when Foreman is in
Well... right. Isn't that what I just said?

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Re: Lamar Miller (and D'Onta Foreman) in 2018

Postby onetwothree » Mon Nov 13, 2017 6:59 pm

More to being a RB than fantasy stats. Going to assume BOB trusts Miller in pass pro among other non statistical things RBs need to do. I don't think Miller is anything special but coaches love reliable and he certainly is that.

Next season after Foreman gets a full training camp where he's in shape? Different story. Texans have a small window to surround Watson with talent while his contract is reasonable so they may decide Miller's cap hold is better off on linemen to protect their guy and run with the cheap RB.

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Re: Lamar Miller (and D'Onta Foreman) in 2018

Postby ColdZealDonkeyStrike » Mon Nov 13, 2017 7:00 pm

Dynasty DeLorean wrote:
Mon Nov 13, 2017 6:52 pm
jtd1387 wrote:
Mon Nov 13, 2017 6:34 pm
Dynasty DeLorean wrote:
Mon Nov 13, 2017 5:46 pm
Statistically, Foreman has been a better runner this season than Miller even though he's faced a league-leading 87% carry rate vs Base defense. So in a manner of speaking, Foreman has been the most screwed runner in the entire NFL within that context.
I wouldn't say he has been screwed. He runs on a high percentage of the snaps he is in for, so it is just a tell to the defense that they are running when Foreman is in
Well... right. Isn't that what I just said?
Maybe it is just semantics here, but it sounded like you were saying he is more of a victim of circumstances. The circumstances seem to me to be due to his lack of development in areas besides running. So I wouldn't say he is being screwed, his current skill set is just keeping him off the field except for obvious run situations.
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Re: Lamar Miller (and D'Onta Foreman) in 2018

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Mon Nov 13, 2017 7:04 pm

jtd1387 wrote:
Mon Nov 13, 2017 7:00 pm
Dynasty DeLorean wrote:
Mon Nov 13, 2017 6:52 pm
jtd1387 wrote:
Mon Nov 13, 2017 6:34 pm

I wouldn't say he has been screwed. He runs on a high percentage of the snaps he is in for, so it is just a tell to the defense that they are running when Foreman is in
Well... right. Isn't that what I just said?
Maybe it is just semantics here, but it sounded like you were saying he is more of a victim of circumstances. The circumstances seem to me to be due to his lack of development in areas besides running. So I wouldn't say he is being screwed, his current skill set is just keeping him off the field except for obvious run situations.
Right that's why I added what I did at the beginning and end of the sentence.

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Re: Lamar Miller (and D'Onta Foreman) in 2018

Postby ColdZealDonkeyStrike » Tue Nov 14, 2017 12:03 am

Dynasty DeLorean wrote:
Mon Nov 13, 2017 7:04 pm
jtd1387 wrote:
Mon Nov 13, 2017 7:00 pm
Dynasty DeLorean wrote:
Mon Nov 13, 2017 6:52 pm


Well... right. Isn't that what I just said?
Maybe it is just semantics here, but it sounded like you were saying he is more of a victim of circumstances. The circumstances seem to me to be due to his lack of development in areas besides running. So I wouldn't say he is being screwed, his current skill set is just keeping him off the field except for obvious run situations.
Right that's why I added what I did at the beginning and end of the sentence.
Relax brother, you seem a little touchy. I was just adding some context to the stat you put out there :thumbup:
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Re: Lamar Miller (and D'Onta Foreman) in 2018

Postby Bot101 » Fri Nov 24, 2017 6:47 pm

My grief over Foreman hasnt subsided at all. Took me from the day after the draft, till the week of his injury to finally get him away from his owner. Paid late 1st/Ross for Foreman/early 2nd. He shows me a glimpse of something more then takes it away... :vsad:

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Re: Lamar Miller (and D'Onta Foreman) in 2018

Postby UnsafeAtAnySpd » Fri Nov 24, 2017 11:31 pm

Yeah, Miller sucks for fantasy purposes. I mean, he's only the PPR RB12 right now, finished as RB16 last year with the god-like Osweiller at the helm, and RB5 year before that with limited touches in Miami...

Edit: He's super old too...

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Re: Lamar Miller (and D'Onta Foreman) in 2018

Postby Bot101 » Sat Nov 25, 2017 12:25 am

UnsafeAtAnySpd wrote:
Fri Nov 24, 2017 11:31 pm
Yeah, Miller sucks for fantasy purposes. I mean, he's only the PPR RB12 right now, finished as RB16 last year with the god-like Osweiller at the helm, and RB5 year before that with limited touches in Miami...

Edit: He's super old too...

Uh well maybe hes the RB12 because of injury (or suspension in Zekes case) to a lot of the usual top RBs in fantasy? Im not saying hes bad, but he has little upside. Hes a JAG when given a 3 down role. Hes best suited when splitting touches. Fact is, Miller is better when given limited touches.

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Re: Lamar Miller (and D'Onta Foreman) in 2018

Postby trc » Sat Nov 25, 2017 4:27 am

Bot101 wrote:
Sat Nov 25, 2017 12:25 am
UnsafeAtAnySpd wrote:
Fri Nov 24, 2017 11:31 pm
Yeah, Miller sucks for fantasy purposes. I mean, he's only the PPR RB12 right now, finished as RB16 last year with the god-like Osweiller at the helm, and RB5 year before that with limited touches in Miami...

Edit: He's super old too...

Uh well maybe hes the RB12 because of injury (or suspension in Zekes case) to a lot of the usual top RBs in fantasy? Im not saying hes bad, but he has little upside. Hes a JAG when given a 3 down role. Hes best suited when splitting touches. Fact is, Miller is better when given limited touches.
Zeke is above Miller in scoring atm....

But you still miss his point - Miller is a respectable/serviceable/startable RB in fantasy.
Not elite, nobody ever claimed he is (or I haven't seen anybody put out this claim :D )
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Re: Lamar Miller (and D'Onta Foreman) in 2018

Postby Tvols » Sat Nov 25, 2017 6:31 am

Miller is a decent rb .. foreman is better .. but he has made bone headed plays most,y off the field which has slowed his progress with the coaches.. he hasn’t picked up protection as well either but now the injury I, not sure how he will be when he returns the smart move own both rbs and see what shakes out.. oh and in my leagues the cost is nearly identical or foreman will cost u more ...

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Re: Lamar Miller (and D'Onta Foreman) in 2018

Postby gunzwil guinea pigs » Wed Dec 27, 2017 5:08 pm

can foreman take his job going into 2018? are you considering texans cutting him?
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Re: Lamar Miller (and D'Onta Foreman) in 2018

Postby Bot101 » Wed Dec 27, 2017 5:17 pm

gunzwil guinea pigs wrote:
Wed Dec 27, 2017 5:08 pm
can foreman take his job going into 2018? are you considering texans cutting him?
Not after that injury to Foreman. Foreman would need to be a freak to be ready by the start of next season. I think that locked Miller into sticking around for 2018.


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