Buy Low Time - Jordan Matthews

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rubber_duck
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Buy Low Time - Jordan Matthews

Postby rubber_duck » Wed Oct 04, 2017 10:43 am

(RotoWire) Matthews (thumb) needs surgery and is expected to miss at least a month, Sal Capaccio of WGR Sports Radio 550 reports.

============================
Preface: this trade is not good for every team.

If you want to buy at a low point, this may be it. Matthews gets beaten on in the fantasy community because his box scores have not impressed the way several of his 2014 classmates have. Now that he is missing at least a month his owners may be looking to get out. This could be a very good value play, as Matthews may be under appreciated.

It may be possible to buy Matthews for a player that has current production with little upside, such as Garcon. If your team is in a position to lose that sort of production now, Matthews has the potential to pay dividends in 2018 (possibly late 2017). His troubled start in the NFL:

His rookie year:
- Head coach was Chip Kelly
- QBs were: Mark Sanchez and Nick Foles
- 67 receptions on 103 targets for 872 yards and 8 TDs
Very good numbers for a rookie WR.

His 2nd year:
- Chip Kelly destroyed the team (and was fired week 15)
- Bradford was QB, decent talent but 1st year in system and 1st year with the players.
- 85 receptions on 128 targets for 997 yards and 8 TDs.
Good production for 2nd year player with his 3rd QB.

His 3rd year:
- Doug Pederson brings a new offense to the team.
- Carson Wentz is a rookie QB, and played like a rookie after the first 4 games.
- 73 receptions on 116 targets for 804 yards and 3 TDs (14 games)
Played with a hand injury. Also, not a good fit for new offense.

His 4th year:
- Sean McDemott, new team, new coach, new system.
- Tyrod Taylor at QB.
He was traded to the Bills with only a few weeks left before week 1. He then suffered a chip fracture of his sternum and could not practice or build chemistry with Tyrod. He now has broken his thumb and will miss several more critical weeks.

The Upside Play:
The pre-season story was that the Bills were going to suffer through a terrible season. They traded away Sammy Watkins and made some other moves very late in the off-season that suggested this. It is now looking like the team's new HC and GM may know a few things about football. If that is true, then Matthews may have a bright future in Buffalo and possibly produce as a fantasy WR2.

The Downside Risk:
Maybe he continues to break bones.
Maybe the Bills bring in a rookie QB in 2018, delaying any real improvement in the passing game production until 2019+.
Maybe Matthews gets moved to another team after 2017 and ... ???

At the very least, Jordan Matthews should not be clogging up a roster spot for very long.

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Valhalla
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Re: Buy Low Time - Jordan Matthews

Postby Valhalla » Wed Oct 04, 2017 11:22 am

rubber_duck wrote:
Wed Oct 04, 2017 10:43 am
(RotoWire) Matthews (thumb) needs surgery and is expected to miss at least a month, Sal Capaccio of WGR Sports Radio 550 reports.

============================
Preface: this trade is not good for every team.

If you want to buy at a low point, this may be it. Matthews gets beaten on in the fantasy community because his box scores have not impressed the way several of his 2014 classmates have. Now that he is missing at least a month his owners may be looking to get out. This could be a very good value play, as Matthews may be under appreciated.

It may be possible to buy Matthews for a player that has current production with little upside, such as Garcon. If your team is in a position to lose that sort of production now, Matthews has the potential to pay dividends in 2018 (possibly late 2017). His troubled start in the NFL:

His rookie year:
- Head coach was Chip Kelly
- QBs were: Mark Sanchez and Nick Foles
- 67 receptions on 103 targets for 872 yards and 8 TDs
Very good numbers for a rookie WR.

His 2nd year:
- Chip Kelly destroyed the team (and was fired week 15)
- Bradford was QB, decent talent but 1st year in system and 1st year with the players.
- 85 receptions on 128 targets for 997 yards and 8 TDs.
Good production for 2nd year player with his 3rd QB.

His 3rd year:
- Doug Pederson brings a new offense to the team.
- Carson Wentz is a rookie QB, and played like a rookie after the first 4 games.
- 73 receptions on 116 targets for 804 yards and 3 TDs (14 games)
Played with a hand injury. Also, not a good fit for new offense.

His 4th year:
- Sean McDemott, new team, new coach, new system.
- Tyrod Taylor at QB.
He was traded to the Bills with only a few weeks left before week 1. He then suffered a chip fracture of his sternum and could not practice or build chemistry with Tyrod. He now has broken his thumb and will miss several more critical weeks.

The Upside Play:
The pre-season story was that the Bills were going to suffer through a terrible season. They traded away Sammy Watkins and made some other moves very late in the off-season that suggested this. It is now looking like the team's new HC and GM may know a few things about football. If that is true, then Matthews may have a bright future in Buffalo and possibly produce as a fantasy WR2.

The Downside Risk:
Maybe he continues to break bones.
Maybe the Bills bring in a rookie QB in 2018, delaying any real improvement in the passing game production until 2019+.
Maybe Matthews gets moved to another team after 2017 and ... ???

At the very least, Jordan Matthews should not be clogging up a roster spot for very long.
Yeah but he's never had 1000. He sucks.

Kidding. Good comments. His situation has never been one to provide any high statistical expectations. I don't see a big year in 2018 either, as he will either still be with Tyrod or with a rookie in all likelihood, which likely won't lead to big numbers. He seems to be a guy that's a decent NFL talent but his situations aren't providing much for upside. Maybe they draft a QB that turns out to be a good passer and Matthews finally has starting lineup value to your fantasy team by 2019. I don't discount the talent/possible upside, but it's likely a ways out if it occurs.

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Re: Buy Low Time - Jordan Matthews

Postby rubber_duck » Wed Oct 04, 2017 11:55 am

He is an UFA after this season. So Matthews could choose his own situation for 2018.

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Re: Buy Low Time - Jordan Matthews

Postby Valhalla » Wed Oct 04, 2017 1:09 pm

rubber_duck wrote:
Wed Oct 04, 2017 11:55 am
He is an UFA after this season. So Matthews could choose his own situation for 2018.
Maybe it's a good thing (for his dynasty value) that he got injured then...
The Bills won't want to extend him in-season here when it's a season of injury. The injury raises his chances of getting on a roster with a more supportive QB.
Maybe he'll go to the Packers :shock:

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Re: Buy Low Time - Jordan Matthews

Postby maxhyde » Wed Oct 04, 2017 2:24 pm

Valhalla wrote:
Wed Oct 04, 2017 1:09 pm
rubber_duck wrote:
Wed Oct 04, 2017 11:55 am
He is an UFA after this season. So Matthews could choose his own situation for 2018.
Maybe it's a good thing (for his dynasty value) that he got injured then...
The Bills won't want to extend him in-season here when it's a season of injury. The injury raises his chances of getting on a roster with a more supportive QB.
Maybe he'll go to the Packers :shock:
Packers typically don't pay FA WR's...in fact they usually lose FA WR's because they don't pay
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Re: Buy Low Time - Jordan Matthews

Postby Phaded » Wed Oct 04, 2017 2:24 pm

Meh - never been impressed by the guy.

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Re: Buy Low Time - Jordan Matthews

Postby Cameron Giles » Wed Oct 04, 2017 3:35 pm

Here's the thing about Matthews: He's just not that good. He's a respectable WR, but unspectular and replaceable. He's not a go-to player in a really good offense. He's a big slot WR, who for some reason doesn't win outside in the NFL, has inconsistent hands and offers limited big play ability. Most of his value stems from being in the 2014 WR class, as someone many in the community expected to be an elite WR. Aside from 2014, he's been extremely fortunate that he's been the best WR in awful WR groups.

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Re: Buy Low Time - Jordan Matthews

Postby Slackalacker » Wed Oct 04, 2017 5:35 pm

I doubt he'd ever become a top tier stud, but I'd be happy to have him as an option in my flex
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Re: Buy Low Time - Jordan Matthews

Postby ninotoreS » Wed Oct 04, 2017 5:50 pm

You wouldn't know it from the box-scores, but Tyrod Taylor has quietly played very good football through four weeks. His passer rating is 9th in the league and his PFF grade through four weeks is a stellar 86, the 5th best grade for QBs.

Taylor's good play highlights how Matthews' own lack of noteworthy production through four weeks isn't Taylor's fault. Taylor is doing everything he can to play as well as he can with no weapons. And Jordan Matthews has been firmly part of that 'no weapons' situation. If Matthews truly had the right stuff, he'd have been helping Taylor produce better stats as a target hog. That he's instead been his usual JAG self in an offense with a good QB and a wide-open opportunity for targets is yet more evidence on the pile that Jordan Matthews just isn't anything special.
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Re: Buy Low Time - Jordan Matthews

Postby Valhalla » Wed Oct 04, 2017 5:54 pm

ninotoreS wrote:
Wed Oct 04, 2017 5:50 pm
You wouldn't know it from the box-scores, but Tyrod Taylor has quietly played very good football through four weeks. His passer rating is 9th in the league and his PFF grade through four weeks is a stellar 86, the 5th best grade for QBs.

Taylor's good play highlights how Matthews' own lack of noteworthy production through four weeks isn't Taylor's fault. Taylor is doing everything he can to play as well as he can with no weapons. And Jordan Matthews has been firmly part of that 'no weapons' situation. If Matthews truly had the right stuff, he'd have been helping Taylor produce better stats as a target hog. That he's instead been his usual JAG self in an offense with a good QB and a wide-open opportunity for targets is yet more evidence on the pile that Jordan Matthews just isn't anything special.
Your thoughts on Sammy Watkins?

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Re: Buy Low Time - Jordan Matthews

Postby ninotoreS » Wed Oct 04, 2017 6:04 pm

You mean as a Bill? Taylor to Watkins was pretty darn productive when Watkins' health wasn't an issue.
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Re: Buy Low Time - Jordan Matthews

Postby Valhalla » Wed Oct 04, 2017 6:30 pm

ninotoreS wrote:
Wed Oct 04, 2017 6:04 pm
You mean as a Bill? Taylor to Watkins was pretty darn productive when Watkins' health wasn't an issue.
Hasn't Matthews' health gotten in the way a bit?

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Re: Buy Low Time - Jordan Matthews

Postby ninotoreS » Wed Oct 04, 2017 10:28 pm

Not before the 4th quarter of last week's game.
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Re: Buy Low Time - Jordan Matthews

Postby jman3134 » Wed Oct 04, 2017 11:10 pm

How is it fair to blame JMatt for any chemistry problems with TT during the first four weeks of the season? He was acquired midway through training camp. He is averaging 3 targets a game as their top wide receiver. Obviously, TT has existing chemistry with Charles Clay and is more comfortable there. These things take time and JMatt is new to the offense.

I mean Buffalo's O is predominantly a run offense anyway. Their ~25 passing attempts per game rank dead last in the NFL. For reference, the Cardinals are the leading passing offense with 46 attempts per game, nearly double that of Buffalo's O.
Last edited by jman3134 on Wed Oct 04, 2017 11:17 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Buy Low Time - Jordan Matthews

Postby bsp27 » Wed Oct 04, 2017 11:15 pm

Completely agree. His college resume is astounding, with excellent size and speed, plus great NFl production. And he's young. Why is this guy's price low again?
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