Sell me on Rob Kelley

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Goddard
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Re: Sell me on Rob Kelley

Postby Goddard » Sat Jun 17, 2017 4:00 pm

Dynasty DeLorean wrote:
Sat Jun 17, 2017 2:46 pm
Goddard wrote:
Sat Jun 17, 2017 1:56 pm
Dynasty DeLorean wrote:
Sat Jun 17, 2017 9:13 am
I think people underestimate the value of having the trust of the coaching staff. Those coaches LOVED them some Matt Jones and Rob replaced him.
So why wouldn't they replace Rob just as easily if they think they have a better option.
They would...
So did you mean people overestimate the value of having the trust of the coaching staff?

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Re: Sell me on Rob Kelley

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Sat Jun 17, 2017 4:06 pm

Goddard wrote:
Sat Jun 17, 2017 4:00 pm
Dynasty DeLorean wrote:
Sat Jun 17, 2017 2:46 pm
Goddard wrote:
Sat Jun 17, 2017 1:56 pm


So why wouldn't they replace Rob just as easily if they think they have a better option.
They would...
So did you mean people overestimate the value of having the trust of the coaching staff?
No

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Re: Sell me on Rob Kelley

Postby smbkrypt24 » Sat Jun 17, 2017 4:31 pm

pvillebiker wrote:
Sat Jun 17, 2017 12:00 pm
Upside vs downside for fat Rob,

Upside - maybe he keeps the starting gig and relegates Perine to goal line and committee back. There's RB2/3 value in that scenario if he pulls it off. Even then you gotta wonder about competition from 2018's also-pretty-great RB class.

Downside - Perine takes over pretty early as most expect (Waldman is very high on him + has him higher than Dalvin) and locks up starting RB for years. He's Alfred Morris only in a better situation if Cousins signs a long term deal before camp.
This was clearly written from a one sided perspective.

If Rob's upside was he may not even be the starter and if he is his goal line carries are stripped and he is replaced in 2018...why even bother.
this whole post should have been written in the downside perspective.
12 Team PPR Dynasty. Start 1 QB, 1 RB, 1 WR, 1 TE, 2 Flex (RB/WR/TE), 1 Kicker, 1 Defense. 20 roster spots.

Team 1
QB: Prescott, A. Luck, Roethlisberger
RB: S. Barkley, E. Elliott, K. Hunt, C. Edmonds, J. McKinnon
WR: T. Hill, K. Allen, R. Woods, M. Gallup, D. Johnson, Coutee
TE: Cook, G. Everett, Dissly, Gronk
Kicker: Zuerlein
Def: 49ers

Draft Picks:
2020: 1.01, 3.12

Team 2. Scoring and Roster limits listed above.
QB: Watson, A. Luck, Roethlisberger
RB: K. Hunt, Da. Johnson, L. Miller
WR: OBJ, M. Evans, Chark, R. Woods, J. Ross, Coutee, P. Williams, Isabella,
TE: J. Smith, V. McDonald, E. Ebron, W. Dissly
Kicker: Gostkowski


Team 3. Scoring and Roster limits listed above.
QB: Roethlisberger, Luck
RB: D. Swift, M. Mack, K. Hunt, C. Edmonds, Du. Johnson J. McKinnon, L. Miller
WR: T. Hill, OBJ, M. Evans, JuJu, M. Brown, J. Ross, Coutee
TE: J. Smith, Dissly, E. Ebron
Kicker: Prater


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2020: 1.12

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Re: Sell me on Rob Kelley

Postby M-Dub » Sat Jun 17, 2017 4:40 pm

Goddard wrote:
Sat Jun 17, 2017 1:56 pm
Dynasty DeLorean wrote:
Sat Jun 17, 2017 9:13 am
I think people underestimate the value of having the trust of the coaching staff. Those coaches LOVED them some Matt Jones and Rob replaced him.
So why wouldn't they replace Rob just as easily if they think they have a better option. Seems like having the trust of the coaching staff is only as good as your production.
I'm pretty sure he meant to say "overestimate."

Edit: Or maybe not. Didn't see the reply on the second page when I posted. I guess I'm confused too.
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Re: Sell me on Rob Kelley

Postby Goddard » Sat Jun 17, 2017 4:45 pm

M-Dub wrote:
Sat Jun 17, 2017 4:40 pm
Goddard wrote:
Sat Jun 17, 2017 1:56 pm
Dynasty DeLorean wrote:
Sat Jun 17, 2017 9:13 am
I think people underestimate the value of having the trust of the coaching staff. Those coaches LOVED them some Matt Jones and Rob replaced him.
So why wouldn't they replace Rob just as easily if they think they have a better option. Seems like having the trust of the coaching staff is only as good as your production.
I'm pretty sure he meant to say "overestimate."

Edit: Or maybe not. Didn't see the reply on the second page when I posted. I guess I'm confused too.
Yea kinda confusing, which is why i asked. Oh well.

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Re: Sell me on Rob Kelley

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Sat Jun 17, 2017 5:02 pm

The coaches wanted Matt Jones to keep the job but they couldn't trust him so he lost it. They could trust Rob Kelly which is why he has the job now. NFL coaches want reliable players they can count on. Perine may be that and may be better than Rob Kelly but he'll have to prove it first.

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Re: Sell me on Rob Kelley

Postby pvillebiker » Sat Jun 17, 2017 6:24 pm

smbkrypt24 wrote:
Sat Jun 17, 2017 4:31 pm
pvillebiker wrote:
Sat Jun 17, 2017 12:00 pm
Upside vs downside for fat Rob,

Upside - maybe he keeps the starting gig and relegates Perine to goal line and committee back. There's RB2/3 value in that scenario if he pulls it off. Even then you gotta wonder about competition from 2018's also-pretty-great RB class.

Downside - Perine takes over pretty early as most expect (Waldman is very high on him + has him higher than Dalvin) and locks up starting RB for years. He's Alfred Morris only in a better situation if Cousins signs a long term deal before camp.
This was clearly written from a one sided perspective.

If Rob's upside was he may not even be the starter and if he is his goal line carries are stripped and he is replaced in 2018...why even bother.
this whole post should have been written in the downside perspective.
Wow, somebody's got their panties in a wad. No, his upside is if he keeps the starting gig. Or a diluted version of it. That's how I see his upside man. Pretty limited, but some value depending on the price you're willing to pay. If Perine doesn't win the starting job, you gotta believe with his power, size and nastiness he'd at least have a crack to at least share goal line carries.

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Re: Sell me on Rob Kelley

Postby DJB » Sat Jun 17, 2017 7:16 pm

Im more confident that Josh Gordon will return to the NFL than i am Kelly being anything more than a placeholder for a season

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Re: Sell me on Rob Kelley

Postby StableOfRBs » Sat Jun 17, 2017 7:37 pm

Maybe it's a slight bias because I own him (got him as a depth piece/lottery ticket for Tyrod a couple months ago) but so far I've seen a lot of hate with no reasoning behind it, we've seen him do well when given carries even as a rookie (over 4 YPC, 1100 yard 10+TD pace), then reports are coming out that he's lost some weight and gotten more explosive, sure he was a UDFA but Perine was just a 4th round pick and both backs have very comparable combine measurables (Kelley wasn't invited to the combine his values are from a pro day) but even though he's got great ball security (0 fumbles last year on 180 total touches) which WAS clearly cares a lot about and all of a sudden he's gonna lose the job to Perine because he's got "nastiness"? I just don't see the logic behind it

The main argument I've seen against him is "he's not good" with zero basis for that conclusion, if someone could give me some concrete numbers or some tape to watch to show me definitively why he shouldn't do well I'll gladly dump him and climb on the hate train, but I have yet to be given a reason to do so since he got the starting job
12 Team 1QB/2RB/2WR/1FLEX/1TE/1DST, TE premium

QBs: Andrew Luck, Tyrod Taylor
RBs: David Johnson, Melvin Gordon, Ty Montgomery, Doug Martin, Rob Kelley, De'Angelo Henderson, Chris Carson, James Conner, Austin Ekeler, Rod Smith
WRs: Amari Cooper, OBJ, Alshon Jeffery, Demaryius Thomas, Josh Doctson, Jeremy Maclin, Cooper Kupp
TEs: Jordan Reed, Jack Doyle, David Njoku, Jonnu Smith, Ricky Seals-Jones
DSTs: Bengals

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Re: Sell me on Rob Kelley

Postby crisdecamposmd » Sun Jun 18, 2017 12:52 am

moishetreats wrote:
Sat Jun 17, 2017 7:16 am
Yes, that's right: sell me on him. I know all the arguments against him, but I own him Team 1 in sig. I have a fair enough offer for him (I'll post that later), but I still have belief in him. Again, I know all the reasons to accept the offer, but I'd love to hear from anyone who still holds faith in Kelley first...

So, if you exist out there: Go!
Remember what it was like for Lacy when he played with Rodgers??

I have Kelley and won't consider trading him at this point. People simply don't value him appropriately, for whatever reason. But, the facts are this... and facts are what you should form your opinion on:
- one of the best at making people miss in the backfield and getting positive yards
- ball security
- did not even play much RB since high school, last year was basically out of nowhere
- from all reports, he's had an incredible offseason losing 6% body fat and increasing his weight from 228 to 233
- ummm... breaks tackles
- reportedly worked a lot on his receiving skills this offseason

So, you have a big, young, productive, hard-working RB on one of the best offenses in the league. I was able to draft Perine in my league at #14... I love Perine, as do many, but the fact is that this is the NFL now, not NCAA, and Kelley has an outstanding resume at this point. There are always hype trains at this point in the season but I would not trade Kelley.

12 team ppr with big play/yardage bonuses:

QB: Cousins
WR: AJ Green, Enunwa, Cam Meredith, Tyrell Williams, Chris Conley, Marqise Lee, Jordan Matthews, Robby Anderson, Pierre Garcon, Josh Doctson, Kamar Aiken, Chester Rogers, Cordarrelle Patterson, Jaron Brown, Brice Butler, Chad Hansen, Jehu Chesson, Charone Peake
TE: Kelce, Eifert, Swoope
RB: Kelley, Perine, CJ Anderson, Turbin, Benny Cunningham, Andre Williams

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Re: Sell me on Rob Kelley

Postby John Paul » Sun Jun 18, 2017 5:40 am

Sell Kelley. His value drops from here. Perine, barring injury, owns that spot. Get ahead of the curve. It's a good offense, a good OL, but Kelley's time is short as a starter.
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QB: Aaron Rodgers(1.01/'12), Mitchell Trubisky(2.04/'17), Gardner Minshew(Trade'20), Ryan Tannehill(WW/'19)
RB: Todd Gurley(1.04/'15), Joe Mixon(Trade'18), Nick Chubb(2.08/'18), Tarik Cohen(WW/'17), Raheem Mostert(WW/'19), Kenyan Drake(Trade'20)
WR: Julio Jones(Trade '20), Mike Evans(Trade '18), Cooper Kupp(Trade '18), Allen Robinson (Trade '19), Parris Campbell(1.10/'19), Andy Isabella(2.02/'19), [IR]Hakeem Butler(2.04/'19), Diontae Johnson(WW/'19)
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Re: Sell me on Rob Kelley

Postby smbkrypt24 » Sun Jun 18, 2017 5:58 am

pvillebiker wrote:
Sat Jun 17, 2017 6:24 pm
smbkrypt24 wrote:
Sat Jun 17, 2017 4:31 pm
pvillebiker wrote:
Sat Jun 17, 2017 12:00 pm
Upside vs downside for fat Rob,

Upside - maybe he keeps the starting gig and relegates Perine to goal line and committee back. There's RB2/3 value in that scenario if he pulls it off. Even then you gotta wonder about competition from 2018's also-pretty-great RB class.

Downside - Perine takes over pretty early as most expect (Waldman is very high on him + has him higher than Dalvin) and locks up starting RB for years. He's Alfred Morris only in a better situation if Cousins signs a long term deal before camp.
This was clearly written from a one sided perspective.

If Rob's upside was he may not even be the starter and if he is his goal line carries are stripped and he is replaced in 2018...why even bother.
this whole post should have been written in the downside perspective.
Wow, somebody's got their panties in a wad. No, his upside is if he keeps the starting gig. Or a diluted version of it. That's how I see his upside man. Pretty limited, but some value depending on the price you're willing to pay. If Perine doesn't win the starting job, you gotta believe with his power, size and nastiness he'd at least have a crack to at least share goal line carries.
The only issue with stating maybe he keeps his starting gig would be that you could say the same thing about 28 starting running back in the league. Stating that is just stating the obvious. I don't agree that would actually be his upside.

upside: he holds off perine this year and proves he is the starting running back to own in that offense.
downside: perine takes over goal line carries and eventually the starting gig this year. Kelley is relegated to a backup role and not worth owning unless to own a handcuff.
12 Team PPR Dynasty. Start 1 QB, 1 RB, 1 WR, 1 TE, 2 Flex (RB/WR/TE), 1 Kicker, 1 Defense. 20 roster spots.

Team 1
QB: Prescott, A. Luck, Roethlisberger
RB: S. Barkley, E. Elliott, K. Hunt, C. Edmonds, J. McKinnon
WR: T. Hill, K. Allen, R. Woods, M. Gallup, D. Johnson, Coutee
TE: Cook, G. Everett, Dissly, Gronk
Kicker: Zuerlein
Def: 49ers

Draft Picks:
2020: 1.01, 3.12

Team 2. Scoring and Roster limits listed above.
QB: Watson, A. Luck, Roethlisberger
RB: K. Hunt, Da. Johnson, L. Miller
WR: OBJ, M. Evans, Chark, R. Woods, J. Ross, Coutee, P. Williams, Isabella,
TE: J. Smith, V. McDonald, E. Ebron, W. Dissly
Kicker: Gostkowski


Team 3. Scoring and Roster limits listed above.
QB: Roethlisberger, Luck
RB: D. Swift, M. Mack, K. Hunt, C. Edmonds, Du. Johnson J. McKinnon, L. Miller
WR: T. Hill, OBJ, M. Evans, JuJu, M. Brown, J. Ross, Coutee
TE: J. Smith, Dissly, E. Ebron
Kicker: Prater


Draft Picks:
2020: 1.12

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Re: Sell me on Rob Kelley

Postby Cameron Giles » Sun Jun 18, 2017 7:15 am

Most of Kelley's value stems from:

-Coach speak
-Not being Matt Jones
-Opportunity

As an RB, he's not very good. Usually mediocre RB's who are propped up by situation fade quickly in dynasty. He runs hard, which is great, but he doesn't do anything else exceptionally well and doesn't have any physical traits that stand out either.

Washington doesn't have someone who should be a primary back on their roster. Perine and Kelley are very similar, though Perine at least has a history of better college production.

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Re: Sell me on Rob Kelley

Postby zelldawg26 » Sun Jun 18, 2017 7:46 am

StableOfRBs wrote:
Sat Jun 17, 2017 11:18 am
zelldawg26 wrote:
Sat Jun 17, 2017 10:48 am
I'm sorry but I just can't sell you on him. Yes I own Perine and it's easy to say that, but the Skins had nowhere else to go after Jones had problems last season. He is not a buy IMO.
to be fair, whether they had "nowhere else to go" or not Kelley produced when given the opportunity and production is what really matters, he's the incumbent starter so he'll get first crack at the gig and given the rave reviews from his coaches this offseason about him losing weight and being more explosive I see no reason to believe that he'll regress from what he was last year, which was a solid RB2 pace
You're right about getting first crack. Sustaining RB2 pace, just no. I don't see a UDFA from Tulane that hardly ran over 400 yards in college (especially Tulane) and was thrown into a starting gig due to injuries and ball security keeping the job.
They grabbed a running back in the early 4th round for a reason.
And by the way, any coach in their right mind is not going to talk down their current starting back. He wouldn't have a job otherwise.
If you think he'll be an RB2, wait till week 4. He's a sell now or a sell after the first couple games for me while he still owns the starting role.
To be honest, Arian Foster and Priest Holmes were the only UDFA running backs that I could find were ever given the opportunity to remain starting backs and run with the job. If Rob Kelley from Tulane ends up being the 3rd, then you got me there.
SELL now while he is on his high horse.
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Re: Sell me on Rob Kelley

Postby moishetreats » Sun Jun 18, 2017 7:50 am

To those of you who posted reasons on why to believe in Kelley, thank you! (I'm the OP.)

As a reminder, I know all the reasons to sell... I could list 'em, too! Something in my gut, though, tells me that we as a dynasty community might not be giving him enough credit, which is why I asked for people to help DEFEND Kelley in this string, and I appreciate all those replies.

Again, only to those who would defend Kelley: the potential offer is a 2nd in 2018 and pick 3.08 this year for my team 1 in Sig. I know that the value says to jump on it, but yet I'm hesitating. So, to those of you who have any belief in Kelley -- would you sell for this nonetheless?
www.fantasyfootballforever.com - SF/2QB website

10 tms 27 plrs PPR
Start: 2QB 2RB 3WR 2TE 2Flex

QB: Rodgers, Wilson, Wentz, Brissett
RB: Gurley, Gordon, Mixon, Edwards
WR: Hill, Cooper, Hilton, Edelman, Anderson, Slayton, Lazard, Arcega-Whiteside, Harmon, Meyers, S Miller
TE: Kelce, Henry, Herndon, Goedert, Jarwin, Walker, Alie-Cox, Moreau

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2021: 2ndx2, 3rd, 5thx2



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RB: Barkley (38/22) A Jones (10/22), Mixon (30/20), Lindsay (11/21), Ja Williams (3/20)
WR: Cooper (28/20), Diggs (19/21), Allen (29/21), AJ Brown (7/23), R Anderson (3/21), C Davis (20/21)
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