Josh Gordon Thread: Reinstatement (Deja Vu)

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Re: Josh Gordon Reinstatement

Postby jenkins.math » Mon Dec 16, 2019 3:18 pm

joeya2001 wrote: Mon Dec 16, 2019 2:52 pm is this a lesson to learn from guys like Tyreek Hill, Hunt and future players?
All depends on the situation/crime and then the timeline you are looking at for both the player's career and his past transgressions.

For Tyreek, virtually every study available suggests that as long as Tyreek and Espinal are together, there is an increased risk of violence since there have been incidents already. Even if they are not together, they have children, so they will most likely have contact for the rest of his playing days. Considering we value WR's to have a longer FF shelf life than RB, this is a major concern for me and I would never pay up for Hill.

For Hunt, RB's have shorter shelf lives and to be honest, Hunt just looks like a bully that needs to get punched in the mouth. Some anger management classes and staying out of certain environments should remedy his situation. Even if he gets into another bar incident, as long as he doesn't hit a woman it won't be a huge deal. If his hotel antics had been toward a man he would still be on the Chiefs.

Then you have a guy like Preston Williams. Universally regarded as a 1st round talent but went undrafted because of off field concerns. Now you have a guy on IR, living in Miami. Sounds like a recipe for success if you ask me. Considering we have some serious offenders in the league, with violence against others on tape, and they still get drafted early I'm not sure I even want to know the baggage Preston Williams has to go undrafted. Let that sink in.

I look at each player's risk and the likelihood to be a repeat offender before I make a judgement on value. Obviously the price can always get low enough for them to become a buy (similar to PW and most getting him in the 3rd or later before preseason), but I try to be pretty informed and look at the whole situation.

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Re: Josh Gordon Reinstatement

Postby Phaded » Mon Dec 16, 2019 3:24 pm

^^That is quite possibly the deepest dive into trying to predict future suspensions outside of drugs I have ever seen around here.

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Re: Josh Gordon Reinstatement

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Mon Dec 16, 2019 3:32 pm

In for page 100 of this historic thread

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Re: Josh Gordon Reinstatement

Postby Orenthal Shames » Mon Dec 16, 2019 3:34 pm

100 pages for a one hit wonder. What a time to be alive.
Last edited by Orenthal Shames on Mon Dec 16, 2019 4:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Josh Gordon Reinstatement

Postby Mike from Canada » Mon Dec 16, 2019 3:35 pm

jenkins.math wrote: Mon Dec 16, 2019 3:18 pm
joeya2001 wrote: Mon Dec 16, 2019 2:52 pm is this a lesson to learn from guys like Tyreek Hill, Hunt and future players?
All depends on the situation/crime and then the timeline you are looking at for both the player's career and his past transgressions.

For Tyreek, virtually every study available suggests that as long as Tyreek and Espinal are together, there is an increased risk of violence since there have been incidents already. Even if they are not together, they have children, so they will most likely have contact for the rest of his playing days. Considering we value WR's to have a longer FF shelf life than RB, this is a major concern for me and I would never pay up for Hill.

For Hunt, RB's have shorter shelf lives and to be honest, Hunt just looks like a bully that needs to get punched in the mouth. Some anger management classes and staying out of certain environments should remedy his situation. Even if he gets into another bar incident, as long as he doesn't hit a woman it won't be a huge deal. If his hotel antics had been toward a man he would still be on the Chiefs.

Then you have a guy like Preston Williams. Universally regarded as a 1st round talent but went undrafted because of off field concerns. Now you have a guy on IR, living in Miami. Sounds like a recipe for success if you ask me. Considering we have some serious offenders in the league, with violence against others on tape, and they still get drafted early I'm not sure I even want to know the baggage Preston Williams has to go undrafted. Let that sink in.

I look at each player's risk and the likelihood to be a repeat offender before I make a judgement on value. Obviously the price can always get low enough for them to become a buy (similar to PW and most getting him in the 3rd or later before preseason), but I try to be pretty informed and look at the whole situation.
I actually did a google news search for Preston Williams yesterday. So ya I'm concerned. I guess we may as well find out early if he can pass the off season in Miami test.

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Re: Josh Gordon Reinstatement

Postby WhatWouldDitkaDo » Mon Dec 16, 2019 3:44 pm

joeya2001 wrote: Mon Dec 16, 2019 2:52 pm is this a lesson to learn from guys like Tyreek Hill, Hunt and future players?
I think off-field issues differ from substance abuse, though there are rumors that Hunt's issues stem from alcohol.

The player I would be selling high the most this offseason if I owned him anywhere would be Darren Waller. He's had a long history of substance abuse suspensions, much like Gordon, but few seem concerned. I think there's a fairly high risk of relapse given his new 4-year, $30 million contract, though OAK was smart in not guaranteeing any money past this season.
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Re: Josh Gordon Reinstatement

Postby bjd5211 » Mon Dec 16, 2019 3:58 pm

WhatWouldDitkaDo wrote: Mon Dec 16, 2019 3:44 pm
joeya2001 wrote: Mon Dec 16, 2019 2:52 pm is this a lesson to learn from guys like Tyreek Hill, Hunt and future players?
I think off-field issues differ from substance abuse, though there are rumors that Hunt's issues stem from alcohol.

The player I would be selling high the most this offseason if I owned him anywhere would be Darren Waller. He's had a long history of substance abuse suspensions, much like Gordon, but few seem concerned. I think there's a fairly high risk of relapse given his new 4-year, $30 million contract, though OAK was smart in not guaranteeing any money past this season.
And he's moving to Vegas.

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Re: Josh Gordon Reinstatement

Postby Shoreline Steamers » Mon Dec 16, 2019 4:26 pm

mild wrote: Mon Dec 16, 2019 2:57 pm
joeya2001 wrote: Mon Dec 16, 2019 2:52 pm is this a lesson to learn from guys like Tyreek Hill, Hunt and future players?
Yes, no, maybe... I don't knowwww... can you repeeeeeat the question
You're not the boss of me now!

And as to guys like Tyreek and Hunt, each situation is different obviously. Theirs were violence/assault type issues and not substance abuse issues. I have no clue about whether or not these individuals are any more or less likely to have repeat violations. Nobody does. I think every owner just needs to assess the amount of risk they're willing to take (and realize some owners just refuse to roster anyone who's been in the sort of trouble Hill, Hunt, Mixon, etc... have been in).

As Purplepride28 mentioned, Gordon just got popped for violating BOTH of the NFL's substance abuse rules. That's the part about the report that caught my eye immediately. A sad end to a career, and I was really hoping he'd be able to get things right in Seattle. He could have helped the Seahawks this year, and got his career and life back on track.

That's all over now.
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Re: Josh Gordon Reinstatement

Postby FantasyFreak » Mon Dec 16, 2019 5:49 pm

bjd5211 wrote: Mon Dec 16, 2019 3:58 pm
WhatWouldDitkaDo wrote: Mon Dec 16, 2019 3:44 pm
joeya2001 wrote: Mon Dec 16, 2019 2:52 pm is this a lesson to learn from guys like Tyreek Hill, Hunt and future players?
I think off-field issues differ from substance abuse, though there are rumors that Hunt's issues stem from alcohol.

The player I would be selling high the most this offseason if I owned him anywhere would be Darren Waller. He's had a long history of substance abuse suspensions, much like Gordon, but few seem concerned. I think there's a fairly high risk of relapse given his new 4-year, $30 million contract, though OAK was smart in not guaranteeing any money past this season.
And he's moving to Vegas.
It's not like you can't get it in California if you want it. Waller made a legitimate effort to change his life. He's been sober for over 2 years. Yes, there is risk, but I don't think it's that high.
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Re: Josh Gordon Reinstatement

Postby AussieMate » Mon Dec 16, 2019 6:01 pm

FantasyFreak wrote: Mon Dec 16, 2019 5:49 pm
bjd5211 wrote: Mon Dec 16, 2019 3:58 pm
WhatWouldDitkaDo wrote: Mon Dec 16, 2019 3:44 pm
I think off-field issues differ from substance abuse, though there are rumors that Hunt's issues stem from alcohol.

The player I would be selling high the most this offseason if I owned him anywhere would be Darren Waller. He's had a long history of substance abuse suspensions, much like Gordon, but few seem concerned. I think there's a fairly high risk of relapse given his new 4-year, $30 million contract, though OAK was smart in not guaranteeing any money past this season.
And he's moving to Vegas.
It's not like you can't get it in California if you want it. Waller made a legitimate effort to change his life. He's been sober for over 2 years. Yes, there is risk, but I don't think it's that high.
It's probably also his late breakout etc that makes him a sell not just the substance abuse stuff. Like anything it'll just be about what you can get for him. I wouldn't sell for anything less than a 1st because of the scarcity of top TEs.

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Re: Josh Gordon Reinstatement

Postby Cult of Dionysus » Tue Dec 17, 2019 3:04 am

Does this give us any additional insight into why the Patriots gave up on him a few weeks ago...

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Re: Josh Gordon Reinstatement

Postby Goddard » Tue Dec 17, 2019 8:38 am

Cult of Dionysus wrote: Tue Dec 17, 2019 3:04 am Does this give us any additional insight into why the Patriots gave up on him a few weeks ago...
I wondered at the time if they cut him because a suspension was coming. He could have appealed it, which is why we never heard anything from it and eventually lost the appeal. No idea.

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Re: Josh Gordon Reinstatement

Postby MrUbuto » Tue Dec 17, 2019 9:59 am

Goddard wrote: Tue Dec 17, 2019 8:38 am
Cult of Dionysus wrote: Tue Dec 17, 2019 3:04 am Does this give us any additional insight into why the Patriots gave up on him a few weeks ago...
I wondered at the time if they cut him because a suspension was coming. He could have appealed it, which is why we never heard anything from it and eventually lost the appeal. No idea.
That makes a lot of sense. Pete Carroll is the kind of guy who I could see believing Gordon's son story while bellicheck was having none of it
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Re: Josh Gordon Reinstatement

Postby FantasyFreak » Tue Dec 17, 2019 12:22 pm

Phaded wrote: Mon Dec 16, 2019 3:24 pm ^^That is quite possibly the deepest dive into trying to predict future suspensions outside of drugs I have ever seen around here.
He needs to have a drug suspension model and report, like DD does for RB's.
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Re: Josh Gordon Reinstatement

Postby hockeyBjj » Tue Dec 17, 2019 1:26 pm

Cult of Dionysus wrote: Tue Dec 17, 2019 3:04 am Does this give us any additional insight into why the Patriots gave up on him a few weeks ago...
I definitely think Patriots caught him doing something, kept quiet about it and IRed him so as to release after the trade deadline. He wasn't caught by a drug test at that point I don't think though.

Pats had security on him everywhere last year, but he managed to give them the slip on a bye week. Perhaps security caught him smoking, or coming and going at odd hours, or Gordon was giving them the slip again which can all only lead to one thing going on in that troubled man's life.

Pats knew for sure it was only a matter of time before a failed NFL test because he wasn't staying clean
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