Let's talk RBs for 2017/18

[nathanq42]

Who is due for regression?
Who is primed to explode?
This years Blount/DJ/Jordan Howard/Ajayi type guys that weren't projected to do nearly as well as they did?

Who are the older guys that'll do well for cheap, like McCoy, Murray, Gore, etc?

[Valhalla]

There are two 5 second hand grenades in front of you. The pins are pulled on both of them. One was pulled one second ago, the other three. Pick one to hold for a second and one to throw immediately. Pick the wrong one to hang on to and it'll blow up in your face. Get rid of them in the correct order and you'll likely survive, but there will still be some shrapnel damage inflicted.
Thus is the nature of picking between fantasy RBs...

[Adrian_Charlie]

Regression: Melvin Gordon (Can he sustain 12 TDs? 10 rushing...) Latavius will be playing with one of the worst Olines, he couldn't get it done with one of the top Olines last year. Howard is a regression candidate because Chicago has lost Jeffery, Qb situation could be bad, could see a Todd Gurley style season 2.

You won't be able to get McCoy cheap. I've seen mocks where he's nowhere to be found by the middle of the 2nd. Murray you may be able to get in the 2nd or 3rd, but again I don't think he'll be anywhere near as cheap as Gore has been for the last 2-3 seasons.

Primed to explode: Cleveland has upgraded their Oline, if they get a decent QB, Crowell should be in a position to succeed. He came a little short of 1000 yards on a bad team. He got game flowed out of a lot of games, he had a lot of big runs, but if the offense improves overall, he will get better opportunities.

[kasermap]

Based on the list of guys you posted

Blount won't come near his 18 TDs again, will be lucky to get 10
Howard will have a Rawls type second season and Langford will look
DJ is a stud, no way around it
Ajayi had 1,272 yards- 529 of them in 3 games. The other 13 games he had 743 which is 57 ypg. He has mega disapointment written all over him.

Piggy backing on the other post

Gordon will decline in TDs and maintain his heavy volume with a sad 3.5 yards per carry
Murray will struggle in the Minny offense
Crowell has a great shot to clear the 1000 yards 10TD mark (if he resigns in cleveland)

Now some other opinions
Gurley bounces back
Zeke has another great year but expectations will be extremely high and people will be "disappointed"
Bell plays a full 16 games and is the RB1
Lamar Miller turns into the RB1 everyone was expecting, once they get Romo and he has a real passing threat to open things up.

[Vcize]

There are two 5 second hand grenades in front of you. The pins are pulled on both of them. One was pulled one second ago, the other three. Pick one to hold for a second and one to throw immediately. Pick the wrong one to hang on to and it'll blow up in your face. Get rid of them in the correct order and you'll likely survive, but there will still be some shrapnel damage inflicted.
Thus is the nature of picking between fantasy RBs...

This is about as apt an analogy as I've ever seen.

Regression: Melvin Gordon (Can he sustain 12 TDs? 10 rushing...) Latavius will be playing with one of the worst Olines, he couldn't get it done with one of the top Olines last year. Howard is a regression candidate because Chicago has lost Jeffery, Qb situation could be bad, could see a Todd Gurley style season 2.

Agree on both Gordon and Murray. Gordon seems almost an obvious candidate to be one of this year's busts. Volume dependent, TD dependent running back with poor efficiency stats whose volume was dependent on injuries to players around him. Only one RB in the last 20 years has started with two sub 4ypc seasons as a starting running back and gone on to excel and that guy (Matt Forte) brought a lot more to the table as a receiver. I wouldn't be that shocked if this time next year we're talking about whether or not Gordon will be the Chargers' starting running back anymore.

Howard is one I disagree on. No Jeffery and a bad QB situation wouldn't be that different from last year, when Jeffery was ineffective and there was a bad QB situation. Besides Howard and Zeke last year, only 15 other players have ever rushed for 1200+ yards as a rookie. Only 2 of those 15 (Mike Anderson and Steve Slaton) went on to be busts and both of those were clearly vaulted up by playing in a great system, which Chicago was not last year. Another 2 (Alfred Morris and Doug Martin) went on to be solid up and down players. Meanwhile the other ELEVEN of them went on to be all-time fantasy greats (we're talking guys like Edgerrin James, Marshall Faulk, Adrian Peterson, Curtis Martin, Fred Taylor, etc).

That's not to say that Howard will be a fantasy great, but historically if a guy rushes for that many yards as a rookie he has ended up being the real deal.

[MEuRaH]

When I think "regression", I think that a player's value was once very high.... worth a 1.01 pick...... and then takes a hit so big that he's barely worth a 1st. The only person that comes to mind is DaMarco Murray, and it's not because of his skills, it's because he's one injury away from losing carries to Henry, who could take over and never relinquish duties back to Murray. Other than that, I think the other 5-7 RBs I consider 1.01-worthy will be fine........ although this could be the last year that McCoy puts up huge numbers. He'll be 30 next year and he's been used as a workhorse lately.

Explode? Same team; Henry. But only because of Murray's injury potential. I don't think anybody else in the NFL has a chance to explode.

Unknown? Perkins. Dude could be big, or he could be a dud. If you want to buy a cheap candidate with explode potential, this is my vote. In college, he had more broken or missed tackles (I forget which) than any RB in college. Also, the Giants are known to purposely sit rookie RBs and make them earn their starting spot in 1-2 seasons. Who's standing in front of him now? Nobody. Unless they draft a RB high, I think Perkins will take over RB1 duties. Great risk/reward potential here.

In the history of great RBs with RB1 numbers their entire career, all of them (or 99%) were able to do it from nearly day 1 as a starter. I've seen Crowell, I've seen Yeldon, I'm not falling for either of those guys, and there's nobody else the kind of potential you're looking for.

I think this draft has 4-5 RBs who could be studs. I've already pegged 4 "must have's", and a 5th iffy guy...... all guys I think can be had in the first 2 rounds. I also see a ton of guys going in the 1st round that I don't think will amount to anything.

Gonna be a fun year!

[Vcize]

When I think "regression", I think that a player's value was once very high.... worth a 1.01 pick...... and then takes a hit so big that he's barely worth a 1st. The only person that comes to mind is DaMarco Murray, and it's not because of his skills, it's because he's one injury away from losing carries to Henry, who could take over and never relinquish duties back to Murray. Other than that, I think the other 5-7 RBs I consider 1.01-worthy will be fine........ although this could be the last year that McCoy puts up huge numbers. He'll be 30 next year and he's been used as a workhorse lately.

Historically there are often RBs that go from immensely valuable one season to completely worthless within a year or two for no real predictable reason.

Jeremy Hill, Monte Ball, CJ Anderson, Giovanni Bernard, Doug Martin, Trent Richardson, Eddie Lacy, Zac Stacy. All of these guys were 1st or 2nd round dynasty startup picks recently, all of them young, and all of them saw massive drops in value within a year or two.

There are really two different sets of players. The late 1st - 3rd type players (Hil, Anderson, etc in the past which are similar to guys like Ajayi, Freeman, Gordon right now) that can drop from that value to nearly worthless in one season. Then there are the absolute top of the draft type players (Martin/Richardson/Gurley in the past, similar to guys like Zeke/DJ right now) for whom one bad season will generally drop them quite a bit but still only to the back half of round 1 in startups, whereas a second bad season (which Gurley is at risk for this year) will catapult them way down the rankings.

In the history of great RBs with RB1 numbers their entire career, all of them (or 99%) were able to do it from nearly day 1 as a starter. I've seen Crowell, I've seen Yeldon, I'm not falling for either of those guys, and there's nobody else the kind of potential you're looking for.

I think I mostly agree with this, though it kind of depends on how flexible you're willing to be with the definition of "do it".

Lynch, McCoy, and Forte all put up decent volume stats year 1 but were generally seen as disappointments from a performance/efficiency standpoint. McCoy in particular people were looking to unload everywhere after year 1.

This was really Crowell's first year as a true starter and he put up 1200 total yards at 4.8ypc despite playing on a really bad team. Not a lot to dislike there other than his modest number of carries.

[Tsunami]

There are really two different sets of players. The late 1st - 3rd type players (Hil, Anderson, etc in the past which are similar to guys like Ajayi, Freeman, Gordon right now) that can drop from that value to nearly worthless in one season. Then there are the absolute top of the draft type players (Martin/Richardson/Gurley in the past, similar to guys like Zeke/DJ right now) for whom one bad season will generally drop them quite a bit but still only to the back half of round 1 in startups, whereas a second bad season (which Gurley is at risk for this year) will catapult them way down the rankings.

I'm confused why Melvin Gordon is in the group with 4th/5th round NFL draftees Freeman/Ajayi and not with Martin/Richardson/Gurley. I think to say that Devonta Freeman would lose a lot of value after one bad season is a very redraft way to play.


I think Dion Lewis is incredibly undervalued. Last year at this point his ADP was in the 50s, and why it went so low after an injury when he is still playing well is something I'm not sure I understand.

[Vcize]

There are really two different sets of players. The late 1st - 3rd type players (Hil, Anderson, etc in the past which are similar to guys like Ajayi, Freeman, Gordon right now) that can drop from that value to nearly worthless in one season. Then there are the absolute top of the draft type players (Martin/Richardson/Gurley in the past, similar to guys like Zeke/DJ right now) for whom one bad season will generally drop them quite a bit but still only to the back half of round 1 in startups, whereas a second bad season (which Gurley is at risk for this year) will catapult them way down the rankings.

I'm confused why Melvin Gordon is in the group with 4th/5th round NFL draftees Freeman/Ajayi and not with Martin/Richardson/Gurley. I think to say that Devonta Freeman would lose a lot of value after one bad season is a very redraft way to play.

I was referring to their dynasty value and startup dynasty ADP, not their NFL draft round.

Guys like Martin/Richardson/Gurley were considered top 3 overall dynasty players after their breakout years. One bad year for them and they dropped more into the 8-12 range (late 1st round ADP in startups) the next year.

Gordon/Freeman are currently ranked more in the 15-20 range (late 2nd round ADP), around the same spot if not a little lower than guys like Hill/Gio/Ball/etc were after their breakout. The guys starting in that range tend to fall much further (~5th or 6th round startup ADP) after one bad year.

[jonniecakes]

Howard is one I disagree on. No Jeffery and a bad QB situation wouldn't be that different from last year, when Jeffery was ineffective and there was a bad QB situation. Besides Howard and Zeke last year, only 15 other players have ever rushed for 1200+ yards as a rookie. Only 2 of those 15 (Mike Anderson and Steve Slaton) went on to be busts and both of those were clearly vaulted up by playing in a great system, which Chicago was not last year. Another 2 (Alfred Morris and Doug Martin) went on to be solid up and down players. Meanwhile the other ELEVEN of them went on to be all-time fantasy greats (we're talking guys like Edgerrin James, Marshall Faulk, Adrian Peterson, Curtis Martin, Fred Taylor, etc).

That's not to say that Howard will be a fantasy great, but historically if a guy rushes for that many yards as a rookie he has ended up being the real deal.

As a Bears fan (sadly), I have to reminisce about a certain Anthony Thomas who looked like the real deal as a rookie (1100/7) but flamed out. I hope Howard is good but you just never know.

[Valhalla]

Howard is one I disagree on. No Jeffery and a bad QB situation wouldn't be that different from last year, when Jeffery was ineffective and there was a bad QB situation. Besides Howard and Zeke last year, only 15 other players have ever rushed for 1200+ yards as a rookie. Only 2 of those 15 (Mike Anderson and Steve Slaton) went on to be busts and both of those were clearly vaulted up by playing in a great system, which Chicago was not last year. Another 2 (Alfred Morris and Doug Martin) went on to be solid up and down players. Meanwhile the other ELEVEN of them went on to be all-time fantasy greats (we're talking guys like Edgerrin James, Marshall Faulk, Adrian Peterson, Curtis Martin, Fred Taylor, etc).

That's not to say that Howard will be a fantasy great, but historically if a guy rushes for that many yards as a rookie he has ended up being the real deal.

As a Bears fan (sadly), I have to reminisce about a certain Anthony Thomas who looked like the real deal as a rookie (1100/7) but flamed out. I hope Howard is good but you just never know.

A-Train!

[Vcize]

Howard is one I disagree on. No Jeffery and a bad QB situation wouldn't be that different from last year, when Jeffery was ineffective and there was a bad QB situation. Besides Howard and Zeke last year, only 15 other players have ever rushed for 1200+ yards as a rookie. Only 2 of those 15 (Mike Anderson and Steve Slaton) went on to be busts and both of those were clearly vaulted up by playing in a great system, which Chicago was not last year. Another 2 (Alfred Morris and Doug Martin) went on to be solid up and down players. Meanwhile the other ELEVEN of them went on to be all-time fantasy greats (we're talking guys like Edgerrin James, Marshall Faulk, Adrian Peterson, Curtis Martin, Fred Taylor, etc).

That's not to say that Howard will be a fantasy great, but historically if a guy rushes for that many yards as a rookie he has ended up being the real deal.

As a Bears fan (sadly), I have to reminisce about a certain Anthony Thomas who looked like the real deal as a rookie (1100/7) but flamed out. I hope Howard is good but you just never know.

There is a big difference between guys in the 1200-1400 range (Howard had 1313) and guys in the 1000-1100 range (of which there are many).

Here are the players that have rushed for 1200+ yards as a rookie

Fred Taylor
Chris Johnson
Ladainian Tomlinson
Matt Forte
Steve Slaton
Marshall Faulk
Adrian Peterson
Jamal Lewis
Eddie George
Doug Martin
Mike Anderson
Curtis Martin
Clinton Portis
Edgerrin James
Alfred Morris
Ezekiel Elliot
Jordan Howard

[DrNoish]

Well that makes me want to trade heavy for Howard. But I fear team game planning against him this year, which probably wasn't the case last year. Similar to Gurley, only option on a team surprises, then corrects heavy. Hopefully Glennon is game manager enough to keep them honest. I'm a goofy looking QB fan, so I think it's possible he surprises everybody with a top 15 QB year. With another WR option of course. Maybe a late round 3rd down back that surprises also, or like a Curtis Samuel type.

[jonniecakes]

@Vcize - not sure if you're a Bears fan but we (Bears fans) tend to have limitless expectations after one year and then get disappointed heavily, hence the A-Train comparison. Your list of 1200-1300 yard rookie rushers is definitely an impressive list and solidifies your argument but there's one name there that gives me pause - Steve Slaton. He flamed out pretty bad. And just him alone makes me hesitate!

With that said, I'm hoping as a Bears fan, you are correct in your assessment. I don't have any fantasy shares in him but I'll be rooting him on...except the weeks I'm playing him.

[Ray Finkle]

As a Bears fan (sadly), I have to reminisce about a certain Anthony Thomas who looked like the real deal as a rookie (1100/7) but flamed out. I hope Howard is good but you just never know.

A-Train!

Go Blue!