Goodbye Stills, hello Carroo?

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Crazylegs
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Goodbye Stills, hello Carroo?

Postby Crazylegs » Fri Feb 10, 2017 11:37 pm

Kenny Stills is a free agent in Miami, and most seem to think he will not be back. This should open opportunity for Carroo in his year 2 season. The problem is he will still have Landry and Parker ahead of him in the pecking order, making him no better than the 3rd receiver in a Ryan Tanehill led offense. Does anyone think Carroo can emerge, or is he too deeply buried in a less than optimal situation?

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Re: Goodbye Stills, hello Carroo?

Postby Prickler » Fri Feb 10, 2017 11:46 pm

Miami traded up in the draft to get Caroo so they obviously like him. He was high on my list coming out but I dont think Miami can support 3 WRs for fantasy purposes. I haven't followed along closely in Miami so I could be wrong regarding future outlook.

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Re: Goodbye Stills, hello Carroo?

Postby lukkynumber13 » Fri Feb 10, 2017 11:50 pm

Prickler wrote: Fri Feb 10, 2017 11:46 pm Miami traded up in the draft to get Caroo so they obviously like him. He was high on my list coming out but I dont think Miami can support 3 WRs for fantasy purposes. I haven't followed along closely in Miami so I could be wrong regarding future outlook.
Sometimes teams make mistakes tho. :| Tampa traded up into the SECOND for a kicker, and now he may get cut already (he should). Indy took Dorsett in the 1st round and even when he has been needed, he hasn't gotten targets. ST Louis took Tavon what, 8th overall, and have never had a clear plan on how to utilize him.

For the record, I was a big fan of Carroo coming out, but once I saw the landing spot I jumped ship. Maybe he comes around in 3 years, but I won't stick around to find out.
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Re: Goodbye Stills, hello Carroo?

Postby Crazylegs » Fri Feb 10, 2017 11:53 pm

Miami did trade up to get him, and this time last year Carroo was a hot name and a late 1st, early 2nd rd. rookie pick. Miami took him in the 3rd rd. Carroo was also a athletic and productive college receiver. Player profiler has Roddy White as his closest comparable player. Can he compete with Parker and Landry to garner some of the target share?

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Re: Goodbye Stills, hello Carroo?

Postby lukkynumber13 » Fri Feb 10, 2017 11:57 pm

Crazylegs wrote: Fri Feb 10, 2017 11:53 pm Miami did trade up to get him, and this time last year Carroo was a hot name and a late 1st, early 2nd rd. rookie pick. Miami took him in the 3rd rd. Carroo was also a athletic and productive college receiver. Player profiler has Roddy White as his closest comparable player. Can he compete with Parker and Landry to garner some of the target share?
I don't see him competing with Landry anytime soon, but if Parker can't shake his constant injury report sightings, and doesn't develop like I think he will, sure Carroo could develop into a WR3 for fantasy sooner than later
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Re: Goodbye Stills, hello Carroo?

Postby ninotoreS » Sat Feb 11, 2017 4:18 am

One can always hope, OP, but for non-Carroo owners his value still isn't doing anything to warrant much buyer's interest. Even if Stills skips town.

Very best case scenario, he manages to unsurp Parker at some point to reach #2 on the depth-chart. This, of course, is already a purely speculative, hyper-optimistic scenario for a guy that caught just three passes as a rookie despite being 100% healthy and available. Even in this scenario, Carroo seems unlikely to be more than a low-end WR3 in fantasy playability. To be more, Tannehill would need to transform, and his disappointing 2016 doesn't lend optimism to that. Until we see differently, Tannehill has to be considered a career game-manager for whom no one but his #1 target can be trusted to reliably produce stats in fantasy, i.e. Jarvis Landry.

Most realistic scenario, Carroo never rises past Landry or Parker as a Dolphin, and so will remain a fantasy non-factor until 2020. The above poster mentions Parker's durability as a possible cracked door for Carroo, but Carroo isn't even a neat theoretical replacement for what Parker does in the offense. Parker seems to be settling into a chiefly vertical-threat kind of player, whereas Carroo's skillset seems to mostly align with Landry's. Obviously, this isn't ideal for Carroo.


I could see getting Carroo as a throw-in in some larger trade (I'll always reserve at least some tiny hope for a guy with a DR like Carroo's, albeit in a hyper run-first offense), but for 1:1 value and exchange, I only see current owners being able to sell Carroo in most cases if they agree to ship him off for something like a rookie 4th round pick, which of course would represent significant net-loss relative to where owners most drafted him. And I don't see Stills leaving Miami changing that.
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Re: Goodbye Stills, hello Carroo?

Postby FiremanEd » Sat Feb 11, 2017 6:32 am

Was definitely expecting a little more than we saw in Year 1, though when drafting him you knew it was going to be a waiting game given the depth chart. 2017 was the likely earliest you'd start to see his true chops and role. We are almost there.

In terms of his potential in his first contract, he needs injuries to truly come to relevance. Parker or Landry would provide an increased roll, and from there anything could happen. However, that's not an ideal path and hardly assured of anything. Alternatively, he could play his way on, but as mentioned by another poster, unseating Landry will be tough, and not sure he's a true replacement for Parker, though I presume he'd get that role. He's sort of a mix of the two, but not a jump ball guy.

Hopefully people taking him didn't do so in the 1st round, as the landing spot always made that a tough sell of talent trumping situation. Now you just got to hope you have roster spots to hold, otherwise you're in tough to provide him the necessary timelines to where he could become relevant. Unfortunately you won't get much of anything on the trade market either I assume, so you're likely holding the bag. Is it worth it? I have no idea because it's a muddled depth chart and we have t seen him do anything at the NFL level...

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Re: Goodbye Stills, hello Carroo?

Postby ericanadian » Sat Feb 11, 2017 7:39 am

He has some value. My guess is that they shift Parker over to replace Stills and Carroo slides in underneath alongside Landry. The team goes three wide a lot, so I'm not all that worried about whether or not Parker is healthy. I'd be more worried about Parker's role given Tannehill's inability with the deep ball. Let's keep in mind that this team gets no relevant passing production from their TE or RB spots, so there is more opportunity available underneath than on most rosters. I don't think he's going to be anything more than a bye-week replacement next year, but he's got some upside.
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Re: Goodbye Stills, hello Carroo?

Postby Weeman » Sat Feb 11, 2017 9:30 am

Huge fins fan. I don't see Caroo supplanting Parker or Landry at all. He was drafted as insurance for Parker & unfortunately Stills carved out a role in the offense as a deepthreat. Parker is the red-zone & deep threat at times they lack. His size & jump ball ability helps with the inaccuracy of Tannehills arm. Landry as we all know piles up all the short yardage plays. If Landry gets hurt, traded or leaves free agency then Carroo can become super relevant. If this team drafts a tight end early (a high possibility)it could be even worst for Carroo target opportunity. I foresee him also splitting snaps in 3wr sets with the less skilled but blazing speedster Grant who they'll try to get more involved. It's a shame Caroo is very talented, just an awful landing spot with not much promise yet.

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Re: Goodbye Stills, hello Carroo?

Postby theone » Sat Feb 11, 2017 1:19 pm

It will be very difficult for any 3rd WR in MIA to make much of an impact except in deeper leagues or in cases of injury. Gase reduced Tannehill's role in the offense substantially as his attempts through 13 games projected to be about a 100 less than the previous 3 seasons. The WR3 (Stills) accumulated only 81 targets. That was with a very limited passing role from the TE and RB. This could get worse if they draft a high end TE (which they need) or get more from Drake.

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Re: Goodbye Stills, hello Carroo?

Postby Snake » Sat Feb 11, 2017 9:52 pm

I was really hot for Caroo, until I thought about it...

Just a name to monitor on par with Smelter.

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Re: Goodbye Stills, hello Carroo?

Postby IBall2 » Mon Feb 13, 2017 7:31 am

What about Tannethrill's knee? I feel like his health will have a larger impact on Carroo (and the team) instead of whether Stills stays or leaves in FA. I've never been a fan of waiting to let injuries heal by themselves without surgery. Seems like it takes much longer and has a higher likelihood of re-injury, I have no statistical analysis that proves this, just my 2 cents.

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Re: Goodbye Stills, hello Carroo?

Postby onetwothree » Mon Feb 13, 2017 12:22 pm

Is Caroo actually good or is this a case of the fantasy community falling in love with a player and just hoping for the best? I know the Dolphins traded up to get him but I haven't seen much on him aside from Gase calling him out for his practice habits once. He wasn't on my radar until after reading Waldman so I picked him up with a mid-2nd but he's just taking up a roster spot I might need soon.

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Re: Goodbye Stills, hello Carroo?

Postby heyfeefellskee » Mon Feb 13, 2017 1:50 pm

onetwothree wrote: Mon Feb 13, 2017 12:22 pm Is Caroo actually good or is this a case of the fantasy community falling in love with a player and just hoping for the best? I know the Dolphins traded up to get him but I haven't seen much on him aside from Gase calling him out for his practice habits once. He wasn't on my radar until after reading Waldman so I picked him up with a mid-2nd but he's just taking up a roster spot I might need soon.
He had some pretty impressive tape coming out. Go watch the MSU game from 2015. Insanity.

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Re: Goodbye Stills, hello Carroo?

Postby btv802 » Mon Feb 13, 2017 3:03 pm

heyfeefellskee wrote: Mon Feb 13, 2017 1:50 pmHe had some pretty impressive tape coming out. Go watch the MSU game from 2015. Insanity.


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