Alshon Jeffery

[lukkynumber13]

A relocation, in my mind likely doesn't necessarily help him. Not sure if he is a quick learner or not and that could come into play here in his transition. It is not the norm in the NFL to see wr-1 type talents leave as a FA and then shortly there after - put up amazing wr1 numbers. Not saying it couldn't happen, Just saying the buyer likely takes on the risk in this type of move. I'm of the mind set that he will be challenged if he is dealt somewhere, and will struggle to acclimate, and this situation could get ugly. Just a guess and I admit, I could be wrong. I think staying in Chicago is the best thing for him. Feel weird saying that considering how I feel about the Bears. But, for him, the familiarity I think is a good thing.

I agree with this.

[Cameron Giles]

I think he's a great buy. He was healthy and looked good this season. The things that held him back were the 4-game suspension and the Bears QB circus. And at age 27, he still has a lot of potentially great years left.

I think he lands in Philadelphia or Washington.

[Friction]

I think he's a great buy. He was healthy and looked good this season. The things that held him back were the 4-game suspension and the Bears QB circus. And at age 27, he still has a lot of potentially great years left.

I think he lands in Philadelphia or Washington.

Washington could be a really nice spot for him if DJax and Garcon walk. Not that Philly is bad either, but Cousins likes to sling it and that Skins 'O has some nice games.

[lukkynumber13]

He certainly flashed vintage Alshon against GB late in the year

[maxhyde]

There is a lot not to like about a player that misses extended periods of time for multiple reasons and sits on your bench. The biggest hands, and best jump ball guy in the league does nothing for your fantasy production when he is suspended or injured.

This applies to Jeffery.

I'm a buyer too if I can get a price that reflects his risk vs a price that reflects his potential. He may never put up numbers like he did two - 3 years ago. Simple as that. If his price reflects reality, I'm buying. If it reflects pumped up rose colored wishful thinking, I'll gladly let him be someone elses issue. Or, reward.

Like I said, I am a fan of his skill set. However, that has done little for any of his owners (I was one) over the past 26 months. A relocation, in my mind likely doesn't necessarily help him. Not sure if he is a quick learner or not and that could come into play here in his transition. It is not the norm in the NFL to see wr-1 type talents leave as a FA and then shortly there after - put up amazing wr1 numbers. Not saying it couldn't happen, Just saying the buyer likely takes on the risk in this type of move. I'm of the mind set that he will be challenged if he is dealt somewhere, and will struggle to acclimate, and this situation could get ugly. Just a guess and I admit, I could be wrong. I think staying in Chicago is the best thing for him. Feel weird saying that considering how I feel about the Bears. But, for him, the familiarity I think is a good thing.

Is this the reality or the narrative? I mean I am just asking because his on field production is pretty good.
I mean even in his 2015 "missed games" season (7missed games) and playing through injury he was among the tops in points per game when he played ~17ppg. I mean this year was his worst year aside from his rookie season...if you were a conspiracy theorist you could say CHI intentionally kept his targets down some to potentially make his FA foray more affordable. I mean in 12 mostly healthy games in 2016 he had exactly the same # of targets (94) as in his injury riddled 2015 season where he played 9 games.
Anyway I would expect the offers to get worse before they get better for Jeffery owners. Jeffery has 2 top 10WR seasons which are difficult to luck into so don't sell short but be happy to buy there.
I actually don't think a move or staying necessarily change anything for Alshon...he will likely be paid as a top 10WR and be targetted like one as a result.

[Sterling Archer]

Like JFever said, his price needs to reflect his risk. Personally, I don't think that'll happen - all it takes is one owner with those rose tinted glasses. I don't expect to own him in any leagues. The guy can't stay healthy and he's got a 1 year suspension looming if he screws up again.

The OP is a good example of why I won't have him. Alshon would have no shot to be the 1A to Evans' 1B. That's just wishful thinking. He's a good player, but better than Evans he isn't. I do think Tampa is a possible landing spot, but he's easily the #2 there. 1B is best case scenario, but his days of 145+ targets are over if he goes to Tampa. Actually, anyone expecting 9 targets a game better brace themselves. There aren't a lot of landing spots where that will happen. The Titans could definitely use his services, but I don't think they'll throw it enough to get him those targets. Washington is really his only hope, but with the money they're about to throw at Cousins they might be bargain shopping for their WR needs (and they also might just bank on Doctson coming through for them after that draft investment last year).

There's definitely no way he ends up in SD with Keenan, Tyrell, and Benjamin. However, if he somehow finds his way to Arizona that could be huge. I can't see them spending the money, but that's a nice spot for a WR now that Floyd is gone and John Brown is struggling with sickle cell. The final nice situation would be Carolina if they've given up on the Funchess experiment. Tedd Ginn is a FA. They really should invest in the OL, but crazier things have happened.

[Sterling Archer]

Is this the reality or the narrative? I mean I am just asking because his on field production is pretty good.
I mean even in his 2015 "missed games" season (7missed games) and playing through injury he was among the tops in points per game when he played ~17ppg. I mean this year was his worst year aside from his rookie season...if you were a conspiracy theorist you could say CHI intentionally kept his targets down some to potentially make his FA foray more affordable. I mean in 12 mostly healthy games in 2016 he had exactly the same # of targets (94) as in his injury riddled 2015 season where he played 9 games.
Anyway I would expect the offers to get worse before they get better for Jeffery owners. Jeffery has 2 top 10WR seasons which are difficult to luck into so don't sell short but be happy to buy there.
I actually don't think a move or staying necessarily change anything for Alshon...he will likely be paid as a top 10WR and be targetted like one as a result.

Of course he had high ppg in 2015. He was averaging over 10 targets per game! WR stats (especially in PPR) are directly correlated to targets. If you want to gauge his value based on 10.4 targets per game, go for it, but he won't sniff that kind of target load in 2017. He's not a DeSean Jackson guy - he's going to need volume to produce. Your value for him in 2017 should be tied to how you think his target load will play out, and obviously we'll need to see where he signs for that. But I think it is safe to say it won't be 10+/game.

In 2013 and 2014 when Alshon had top 10 finishes, he ranked 11th and 6th in targets. In 2013 he added 105 yard via rushing to pad that fantasy rank - I wouldn't count on that happening again (he's had 0 carries the past 2 years). So if you think he'll get 145+ targets again (which means he'll have to stay healthy and not suspended) then he's a value proposition. If you think his target load will decline or he'll continue to nurse hamstring injuries then he's an easy pass.

After watching hamstring injuries ruin the career of Miles Austin, I'd advise caution with Alshon. http://sportsinjurypredictor.com/injury ... ayer/25755

[kmbryant09]

A couple people mentioned The Titans - Run first team. Maybe that changes, maybe it doesn't. I wouldn't pay top 12-15 wr prices for that uncertainty. Not sure who would... I think that destination very much caps his ceiling to Wr2-wr3 numbers imo, as would each of St.Louis, TB, and Phili. I cant with a clear mind rank him above guys like Hiltion, Watkins, Dt, and Landry, certainly not Cooks. Now that I think on him, I'm staying away for what I think h is prices will be. I don't like his outlook. I do like his talent, size, hands etc, but, his situation is likely to suck and he's proven health wise / suspension wise, to be a bit of a risky asset when considering his cost.

Valuing him over Cooks and Landry is a head scratcher, but, ok. I sure and the heck wouldn't trade Landry or Cooks straight up for him. Who would? and... more important, why?

I get that both Cooks & Landry are younger than Jeffery, but I believe Jeffery is a superior talent - and I'm fairly confident that I'm in the majority of folks. Now, talent doesn't alone equal fantasy value, but it goes a long way in dynasty leagues especially when discussing WR's in their mid-20's.

Cooks' best season of 84/1100/9 doesn't even stack up with Jeffery's 89/1400/7 or 85/1100/10 in my opinion. Not when you consider that Cooks got to catch passes from Drew Brees in one of the league's best offenses while Jeffery was catching passes from Cutler & McCown in a very average offense. I'd also argue that Jeffery has by-and-large been his team's #1 guy (with the exception of 1-year with Marshall) while Cooks took a backseat to a Rookie this year.

Landry's best season put him at WR #17 (.5 PPR) this year. Jeffery had 3 straight seasons in the top11 before 2016. I actually like Landry and think he's extremely safe as a dynasty WR. But if we're talking about a high-end WR 2, give me Jeffery all day with his upside and talent. It's a lot easier to find a 90/1000/4 type WR in today's NFL than one that profiles to Jeffery.

As for landing spot and how it might effect Jeffery's value. I agree that it's usually not a good thing for a WR to leave in Free Agency. I haven't looked into the numbers much, but my guess is value & production drop on average. But Jeffery will be an intriguing case, with a lot of WR needy teams and a lot of productive QB's that might become available. Even some of the unattractive landing spots - San Francisco, Buffalo, Cleveland, etc. might look a lot more appealing if the team also brings in Cutler, Romo, Taylor, Cousins, etc.

Seems like Jeffery is a hold right now. Too talented with too much proven production to sell low. Enough injury risk and an unsettled situation means buyers won't pay up when they could just as easily target someone like Cooks, Hilton, Sammy, Allen, etc.

[Sterling Archer]

Something I forgot to mention was that during 2013 and 2014, his only 2 season where he finished top 36, he was facing opponents #2 CB because Marshall was drawing the #1 CB (except for the 3 games Marshall missed in 2014). Unless he signs with Tampa, he'll be facing #1 CBs next year.

[KMA]

Something I forgot to mention was that during 2013 and 2014, his only 2 season where he finished top 36, he was facing opponents #2 CB because Marshall was drawing the #1 CB (except for the 3 games Marshall missed in 2014). Unless he signs with Tampa, he'll be facing #1 CBs next year.

Is this still a talking point?

[skip]

Of course he had high ppg in 2015. He was averaging over 10 targets per game! WR stats (especially in PPR) are directly correlated to targets. If you want to gauge his value based on 10.4 targets per game, go for it, but he won't sniff that kind of target load in 2017. He's not a DeSean Jackson guy - he's going to need volume to produce.

While I agree that there are plenty of players that require volume, Jeffery's career ypr is 15. That's quite high relative to the majority of WRs. He ranked 11th in the league in 2016.

Aside from injury concerns, I don't think there is any reason to be down on Jeffery. Some owners are carrying lingering concerns about work ethic that he had coming out of college and that it would impact his effectiveness at the NFL level. He's done nothing but show that he can produce top numbers in the league. Landing spot will probably be important just like it would be for any player.

I've seen some people projecting LA. I mentioned as much in another thread but I don't find that likely and that I think there is a better-than-fair shot he lands in Dallas. Jeffery is going to command $10+ million. The Cowboys will clear up plenty of room by trading/releasing Romo who has no guaranteed money remaining on his contract. Living in Texas also means no state taxes compared to 13%+ in California. That's a LOT of money to lose just to live in LA. With the only other viable receiver being Dez Bryant, there is a pretty big hole to fill in that offense that otherwise has few if any needs.

[Sterling Archer]

Something I forgot to mention was that during 2013 and 2014, his only 2 season where he finished top 36, he was facing opponents #2 CB because Marshall was drawing the #1 CB (except for the 3 games Marshall missed in 2014). Unless he signs with Tampa, he'll be facing #1 CBs next year.

Is this still a talking point?

I wouldn't say it's a talking point, but it should be one more small red flag to consider rather than brush under the rug.

[Sterling Archer]

Of course he had high ppg in 2015. He was averaging over 10 targets per game! WR stats (especially in PPR) are directly correlated to targets. If you want to gauge his value based on 10.4 targets per game, go for it, but he won't sniff that kind of target load in 2017. He's not a DeSean Jackson guy - he's going to need volume to produce.

While I agree that there are plenty of players that require volume, Jeffery's career ypr is 15. That's quite high relative to the majority of WRs. He ranked 11th in the league in 2016.

Aside from injury concerns, I don't think there is any reason to be down on Jeffery. Some owners are carrying lingering concerns about work ethic that he had coming out of college and that it would impact his effectiveness at the NFL level. He's done nothing but show that he can produce top numbers in the league. Landing spot will probably be important just like it would be for any player.

I've seen some people projecting LA. I mentioned as much in another thread but I don't find that likely and that I think there is a better-than-fair shot he lands in Dallas. Jeffery is going to command $10+ million. The Cowboys will clear up plenty of room by trading/releasing Romo who has no guaranteed money remaining on his contract. Living in Texas also means no state taxes compared to 13%+ in California. That's a LOT of money to lose just to live in LA. With the only other viable receiver being Dez Bryant, there is a pretty big hole to fill in that offense that otherwise has few if any needs.

Dallas... that's interesting. I had not considered that. I think they've got some OL guys that are FAs. I'd think they'd rather spend their money to keep that recipe for success intact rather than spend top dollar on a WR2. This is not a high volume passing attack we are talking about. How many targets do you think he'd get in Dallas? 120? Dak could always have a sophomore slump, too, which would really hurt.

But really the injury concerns are huge and the risk of a 1 year suspension should not be taken lightly. He's got good size, decent speed, and great hands. He's definitely a talented player, but the dude just can't stay on the field.

[skip]

Dallas... that's interesting. I had not considered that. I think they've got some OL guys that are FAs. I'd think they'd rather spend their money to keep that recipe for success intact rather than spend top dollar on a WR2. This is not a high volume passing attack we are talking about. How many targets do you think he'd get in Dallas? 120? Dak could always have a sophomore slump, too, which would really hurt.

I find it highly unlikely we are going to see a slump from Dak. He showed himself to be one of the most NFL-ready QBs we've seen in a while. There are throws he isn't being asked to make (yet) very often but he's incredibly intelligent and capable. Had there been maturity concerns, we would have seen him collapse vs. Green Bay after they were down by 18. Instead they came back multiple times in that game and he positioned them to win. I only see improvement coming next year.

Ronald Leary is the only free agent "starter" from the line but he also wasn't the planned starter (that was Collins who missed most of the year). The rest of the line is signed at least thru 2017.

One way or another, Dallas has to address their WR2 whether than is with Jeffery or not. Jerry likes to make a splash in free agency and done so with high profile WRs in the past (Roy Williams, TO). Dez could use a better complimentary WR on the other side.

[Sterling Archer]

I find it highly unlikely we are going to see a slump from Dak. He showed himself to be one of the most NFL-ready QBs we've seen in a while. There are throws he isn't being asked to make (yet) very often but he's incredibly intelligent and capable. Had there been maturity concerns, we would have seen him collapse vs. Green Bay after they were down by 18. Instead they came back multiple times in that game and he positioned them to win. I only see improvement coming next year.

Ronald Leary is the only free agent "starter" from the line but he also wasn't the planned starter (that was Collins who missed most of the year). The rest of the line is signed at least thru 2017.

One way or another, Dallas has to address their WR2 whether than is with Jeffery or not. Jerry likes to make a splash in free agency and done so with high profile WRs in the past (Roy Williams, TO). Dez could use a better complimentary WR on the other side.

Highly unlikely? Few QBs have back-to-back seasons with 8 YPA. And his TD:INT ratio will be nearly impossible to repeat. A lot of young QBs get "figured out" in year 2. I wouldn't count on a repeat, but even if he does repeat, you think they'll throw the ball a lot more? I'm really curious how many targets you think he'd get as the WR2? I think 120 would be the upside unless the offense makes a drastic change, which is why I wouldn't be rooting for Dallas if I was an Alshon owner.

I'm not anti-Dak, btw. I just don't consider him a lock to improve. It would be extremely impressive if he just repeated last year!

Good info on the OL. I thought I'd read something about 2 guys, but maybe it was just talk of extending one of them before he's unrestricted next year.