Ajayi Didn't Just Suddenly "Get Gud" -- A study in context
Posted: Tue Oct 25, 2016 2:47 am
Not actually a study, but plenty of context to be understood. So we're going with it.
• According to film analysis from KC Joyner this past offseason, Ajayi's 3.8 YPC his rookie season was "misleading." He said Ajayi received poor blocking on 71% of his runs, among the worst rates in the NFL. He averaged better YPC on those poor blocking plays (1.9) than the league average (1.2). When the blocking was "good," Ajayi averaged 9.0 YPC, better than both Lamar Miller and the league average.
• Ajayi's YPC was further stifled in his rookie season by the final two games. In Week 16 vs. Indy, Ajayi had 9 carries for 23 yards (his most carries of the season), however three of them were from the two yard line and one was a play blown up five yards behind the line of scrimmage, while Miller himself was just 15 for 31 (2.1 ypc). In Week 17 vs. NE, he was shut down by NE 7 for 2 yards, but in the same game Miller was held to 19 for 60 (with a 29 yard run). Rarely when a RB runs 7 times for 2 yards is it because of the RB, however unfortunately for Ajayi his 7 carries were the second highest he had in the season, giving it more weight. Prior to these final two games, Ajayi was averaging a very healthy 4.9 YPC on the season. I realize this is a bit of picking and choosing, but when you have a limited sample size I think it's really important to be more critical how to weigh data when evaluating players. After 7 weeks of play, Ajayi averaged 4.9. Two weeks later, it was down to 3.8, and it didn't concern me then and I don't think it ever should have concerned anyone else given the context.
• For what it's worth, Ajayi was also returning from a cracked rib during his rookie season, although I don't know how much (if any) impact it had on him. Considering how physical he is as a runner, I can't imagine it helped him any. It's probably worth noting that prior to that injury, Ajayi averaged 5.7 ypc on 16 carries in the preseason. He wouldn't see another game until he returned from injury in Week 9.
• Up until the last few weeks, blocking for Miami has been abysmal, and Dolphins fans won't tell you any different. It was really, really ugly. In the preseason it was unthinkably bad in particular. I think this play sums thing up well: https://twitter.com/SportsGuyTweets/sta ... 4247197696. There might not be more than one or two successful blocks on that entire play, and yet Ajayi nearly snatched victory away from certain defeat. In that game in particular, Ajayi averaged 1.6 yards/carry, but 2.1 yards after contact, which means the defense hit him 0.5 yards behind the line on AVERAGE.
• The line got healthy and some starters returned for Miami, and suddenly everyone agrees Miami's blocking has been good. But, it's not just that Miami's line has blocked well. When given room to run and not hit in the backfield, Ajayi has made defenders pay. Out of the 418 yards Ajayi has run the past two weeks, 277 of them have come after contact. In fact, Ajayi now leads the league in yards per carry after contact at 4.11, and has more forced missed tackles (20) than Ezekiel Elliot has (10) on 50+ less touches. Sometimes yards after contact as a metric can be a product of poor vision, and does favor physical backs who seek out contact, but I think we can all agree Ajayi didn't have any problems finding the holes the last two weeks when they were there. PFF gave him the highest grade of any RB in the past two seasons (95.5) for this past week.
tldr; Running back is a very volatile position largely because there's so much that is out of a back's control (see Gurley, Todd, 2016), so I think it's always extra important to go through a player's production (for better or worse) with extra care to try and understand the context, so you don't discard players too early, or prop players up too easily. None of this necessarily means Ajayi is going to be a stud going forward, but it certainly makes it easier to understand why someone who on the surface seemed to have done nothing up until this point, could have exploded in such a fashion. Sometimes a player's quality of play is obfuscated by situation.
Final note: Abdullah is really good at football. He's next.
• According to film analysis from KC Joyner this past offseason, Ajayi's 3.8 YPC his rookie season was "misleading." He said Ajayi received poor blocking on 71% of his runs, among the worst rates in the NFL. He averaged better YPC on those poor blocking plays (1.9) than the league average (1.2). When the blocking was "good," Ajayi averaged 9.0 YPC, better than both Lamar Miller and the league average.
• Ajayi's YPC was further stifled in his rookie season by the final two games. In Week 16 vs. Indy, Ajayi had 9 carries for 23 yards (his most carries of the season), however three of them were from the two yard line and one was a play blown up five yards behind the line of scrimmage, while Miller himself was just 15 for 31 (2.1 ypc). In Week 17 vs. NE, he was shut down by NE 7 for 2 yards, but in the same game Miller was held to 19 for 60 (with a 29 yard run). Rarely when a RB runs 7 times for 2 yards is it because of the RB, however unfortunately for Ajayi his 7 carries were the second highest he had in the season, giving it more weight. Prior to these final two games, Ajayi was averaging a very healthy 4.9 YPC on the season. I realize this is a bit of picking and choosing, but when you have a limited sample size I think it's really important to be more critical how to weigh data when evaluating players. After 7 weeks of play, Ajayi averaged 4.9. Two weeks later, it was down to 3.8, and it didn't concern me then and I don't think it ever should have concerned anyone else given the context.
• For what it's worth, Ajayi was also returning from a cracked rib during his rookie season, although I don't know how much (if any) impact it had on him. Considering how physical he is as a runner, I can't imagine it helped him any. It's probably worth noting that prior to that injury, Ajayi averaged 5.7 ypc on 16 carries in the preseason. He wouldn't see another game until he returned from injury in Week 9.
• Up until the last few weeks, blocking for Miami has been abysmal, and Dolphins fans won't tell you any different. It was really, really ugly. In the preseason it was unthinkably bad in particular. I think this play sums thing up well: https://twitter.com/SportsGuyTweets/sta ... 4247197696. There might not be more than one or two successful blocks on that entire play, and yet Ajayi nearly snatched victory away from certain defeat. In that game in particular, Ajayi averaged 1.6 yards/carry, but 2.1 yards after contact, which means the defense hit him 0.5 yards behind the line on AVERAGE.
• The line got healthy and some starters returned for Miami, and suddenly everyone agrees Miami's blocking has been good. But, it's not just that Miami's line has blocked well. When given room to run and not hit in the backfield, Ajayi has made defenders pay. Out of the 418 yards Ajayi has run the past two weeks, 277 of them have come after contact. In fact, Ajayi now leads the league in yards per carry after contact at 4.11, and has more forced missed tackles (20) than Ezekiel Elliot has (10) on 50+ less touches. Sometimes yards after contact as a metric can be a product of poor vision, and does favor physical backs who seek out contact, but I think we can all agree Ajayi didn't have any problems finding the holes the last two weeks when they were there. PFF gave him the highest grade of any RB in the past two seasons (95.5) for this past week.
tldr; Running back is a very volatile position largely because there's so much that is out of a back's control (see Gurley, Todd, 2016), so I think it's always extra important to go through a player's production (for better or worse) with extra care to try and understand the context, so you don't discard players too early, or prop players up too easily. None of this necessarily means Ajayi is going to be a stud going forward, but it certainly makes it easier to understand why someone who on the surface seemed to have done nothing up until this point, could have exploded in such a fashion. Sometimes a player's quality of play is obfuscated by situation.
Final note: Abdullah is really good at football. He's next.