Ajayi Didn't Just Suddenly "Get Gud" -- A study in context

[ninotoreS]

He looks pretty good. I still don't like him long term, but he's around the likes of cja or Doug Martin right?

I own both and would be hard pressed to give them up for Ajayi; but I can see the argument for him being around them and it probably being personal preference.

Granted you were a vociferous condemner of Ajayi's bottom-line talent not too long ago, iirc.

[sugbear65]

This dude has 500+ yards the past 3 games, against decent competition, and more than half this thread is spent debating on if draft day rumors can be substantiated. I'm gonna vote on the side of who cares. I'm not looking past 1-2 years for any RB anyways, there are way to many variables involved to think we have any idea on how any RB will be performing in 3-5 years.
My armchair analysis, for what it's worth- If I had to pick a style of play that Ajayi reminds me of, I'd compare him to Steven Jackson. Not exactly actively searching out contact like a Lynch, but get in front of him and he will try to run through you. Got a nice burst when he makes a cut into the hole and turns upfield quick. Seems like he reads his blockers well. But if he's met at the line of scrimmage, he doesn't have the moves anyone miss, and needs to get that head of steam going to run over you. Which is why he seems to hit sweeps and runs outside better than straight between the tackles. I think Ajayi is a legit top 12 RB, and I think Gase is a smart enough coach to keep playing to Ajayi's strengths. So I expect him to continue being a RB1 this year, and would expect the same for next year.

[Litesout13]

Seems as if people look at the box score/fantasy score and just say "he looks good" or think he did well

At the half, he was 10 for 29 yards...this INCLUDES a 20 yard TD run lol

At the end of 3 quarters, he was 17 for 55 yards. He was averaging 3.24 YPC going into the 4th

He gained 44 of his 111 yards on the final drive of the game(4 carries)!!

If they were losing going into the final drive, he would have likely ended at 20 carries for 67 yards(3.35 YPC)

Ajayi did not look good in this game. Now, he was facing one of the best run defenses in the NFL. So I wont hold it against him too much. But we need to stop pumping guys up based on the box score.

[DinoDynasty]

I haven't spend enough time to read through this entire thread, but I did see a lot of conversation around Ajayi's medical history, how it affected his draft stock, and that his legs are going to fall of next month. I wanted to point out that Hines Ward had a similar injury history, which was attributed to when he tore his ACL as a child and never had it repaired. He was projected as a 1st round pick and fell to the third round. As we know Hines Ward continued to have a HoF career, playing 13 years in the NFL, WITHOUT an ACL in his leg knee. The lack of ACL would cause the same type of bone on bone activity which was the main argument against Ajayi during the draft.

[Phaded]

He looks pretty good. I still don't like him long term, but he's around the likes of cja or Doug Martin right?

I own both and would be hard pressed to give them up for Ajayi; but I can see the argument for him being around them and it probably being personal preference.

Granted you were a vociferous condemner of Ajayi's bottom-line talent not too long ago, iirc.

While you are correct I am still not a long-term believer, he has shown better in the short term than I expected. Hence why I ultimately conceded in my post that I could see the argument and broke it down to personal preference.

Besides, I either suck at evaluating RBs or are way too harsh on my evaluation of them. There are really only a handful of guys I "like".

So take that into consideration as well.

[jimmycricket14]

Seems as if people look at the box score/fantasy score and just say "he looks good" or think he did well

At the half, he was 10 for 29 yards...this INCLUDES a 20 yard TD run lol

At the end of 3 quarters, he was 17 for 55 yards. He was averaging 3.24 YPC going into the 4th

He gained 44 of his 111 yards on the final drive of the game(4 carries)!!

If they were losing going into the final drive, he would have likely ended at 20 carries for 67 yards(3.35 YPC)

Ajayi did not look good in this game. Now, he was facing one of the best run defenses in the NFL. So I wont hold it against him too much. But we need to stop pumping guys up based on the box score.

I don't necessarily hold it against him that he had trouble finding room to run at the beginning of the game. If you watched the game you also saw that the offensive line struggled run blocking in the 1st half and Ajayi was pretty consistently getting hit behind the line of scrimmage. I would almost call 20 carries for 67 yards to be the expected outcome for a good RB against the Jets. They have held other good runners to similar numbers this season. Week 2: LeSean McCoy 15/57, Week 3: Spencer Ware 20/75, Week 4: C-Mike 18/58, Week 5: Leveon Bell 20/66. David Johnson was the only other back who has gone over 75 yards against the Jets this season. I agree that we shouldn't read too much into his inflated yardage total but I really wouldn't say he didn't look good either. Another positive from that last drive is that he has shown the past 3 weeks that he has the ability to bust big runs late in the game when the defense is worn down. Some would call those runs a fluke but I think he deserves a little more credit for his ability to wear down the defense and be explosive late in the game.

[ninotoreS]

I'm gonna vote on the side of who cares.

Evidently many people? :p

I'm not looking past 1-2 years for any RB anyways, there are way to many variables involved to think we have any idea on how any RB will be performing in 3-5 years.

Anyway, this is probably wise in today's league. Teams used to have their franchise running-backs play through everything, very much including serial concussions, but those days are gone, and rightly so. Accordingly, one really shouldn't take any long-term outlook for a modern running-back for granted.

[ninotoreS]

Seems as if people look at the box score/fantasy score and just say "he looks good" or think he did well

At the half, he was 10 for 29 yards...this INCLUDES a 20 yard TD run lol

At the end of 3 quarters, he was 17 for 55 yards. He was averaging 3.24 YPC going into the 4th

He gained 44 of his 111 yards on the final drive of the game(4 carries)!!

If they were losing going into the final drive, he would have likely ended at 20 carries for 67 yards(3.35 YPC)

Ajayi did not look good in this game. Now, he was facing one of the best run defenses in the NFL. So I wont hold it against him too much. But we need to stop pumping guys up based on the box score.

Problem is YOU didn't watch the game, actually.

I watched every minute, live. From what I saw, it seemed somewhere around half of Ajayi's carries were chunk gains, 1st quarter to 4th. The reason the ypc was low before the 4th quarter was because the other approximate half of his carries were instances where the Jet's as-advertised front was blowing up the line-of-scrimmage and disallowing any sort of gains, even if Ajayi had been in-prime Adrian Peterson out there. The final statline belies how well the Jets run-D actually played for most of the game. His first three carries, iirc, went for -8 yards. And then the fourth carry he took for 20 yards and a touchdown. And that was typical of the day Ajayi had.

Contrary to your assertion, the truth of the tape is that Ajayi ultimately looked even more impressive in this game than he did vs Pittsburgh, in which the line did most of the work for him and he just took advantage. Instead, in this game he shrugged off no-gains and losses from blown up blocking to consistently bounce right back for chunk gains.

And that he got 44 yards in the fourth quarter is (obviously) a GOOD thing, because its shows Ajayi wore down the Jets D, bullied them into eventual submission. That is exactly one of the hallmarks of a dominant workhorse power-back. You don't want them to fade as the game wears on, you want them to get better. That's what Jay Ajayi did. In fact it's what he's done three straight weeks now; those previous 200-yard days are thanks to him breaking tackles at the second-level in the 4th quarter and ripping off huge runs. It's a definite trend at this point. And you can't say those last four carries were garbage time carries, either; Miami won by four points and Ajayi's late dominance helped seal the win.

https://www.profootballfocus.com/pro-nf ... phins-win/

Ajayi scored a 71.6 here. A good score vs a dominant run-D, and good for the team's fifth best grade on offense. Also note Tannehill gave Ajayi little help by managing a worst-than-replacement-level grade of 46 on the day.

Now keep reading and note the grades for the Jets on defense. They were terrific, and that's three linemen plus the run-stopping strong-safety. That Ajayi still graded out respectably when these guys were killing it out there only makes Ajayi look better.


We want season-long RB1s to be close to match-up proof, as a core trait of the tier. Well, what the heck do you think you saw yesterday, bud?

[Balzac]

Problem is YOU didn't watch the game, actually.

I watched every minute, live. From what I saw, it seemed somewhere around half of Ajayi's carries were chunk gains, 1st quarter to 4th. The reason the ypc was low before the 4th quarter was because the other approximate half of his carries were instances where the Jet's as-advertised front was blowing up the line-of-scrimmage and disallowing any sort of gains, even if Ajayi had been in-prime Adrian Peterson out there. The final statline belies how well the Jets run-D actually played for most of the game. His first three carries, iirc, went for -8 yards. And then the fourth carry he took for 20 yards and a touchdown. And that was typical of the day Ajayi had.

Contrary to your assertion, the truth of the tape is that Ajayi ultimately looked even more impressive in this game than he did vs Pittsburgh, in which the line did most of the work for him and he just took advantage. Instead, in this game he shrugged off no-gains and losses from blown up blocking to consistently bounce right back for chunk gains.

And that he got 44 yards in the fourth quarter is (obviously) a GOOD thing, because its shows Ajayi wore down the Jets D, bullied them into eventual submission. That is exactly one of the hallmarks of a dominant workhorse power-back. You don't want them to fade as the game wears on, you want them to get better. That's what Jay Ajayi did. In fact it's what he's done three straight weeks now; those previous 200-yard days are thanks to him breaking tackles at the second-level in the 4th quarter and ripping off huge runs. It's a definite trend at this point.

https://www.profootballfocus.com/pro-nf ... phins-win/

Ajayi scored a 71.6 here. A good score vs a dominant run-D, and good for the team's fifth best grade on offense. Also note Tannehill gave Ajayi little help by managing a worst-than-replacement-level grade of 46 on the day.

Now keep reading and note the grades for the Jets on defense. They were terrific, and that's three starting linemen plus the run-stopping strong-safety. That Ajayi still graded out respectably when these guys were killing it out there only makes Ajayi look better.


We talk about wanting RB1s to be match-up proof. Well, what the heck do you think you saw yesterday, bud?

Exactly. You are basically replying to "Ajayi didn't do well because he only got 100 yards against a top 5 run defense. He was stopped on plays so obviously he isn't very good and everyone who thinks so is a sheep."

Some people.

[Litesout13]

Seems as if people look at the box score/fantasy score and just say "he looks good" or think he did well

At the half, he was 10 for 29 yards...this INCLUDES a 20 yard TD run lol

At the end of 3 quarters, he was 17 for 55 yards. He was averaging 3.24 YPC going into the 4th

He gained 44 of his 111 yards on the final drive of the game(4 carries)!!

If they were losing going into the final drive, he would have likely ended at 20 carries for 67 yards(3.35 YPC)

Ajayi did not look good in this game. Now, he was facing one of the best run defenses in the NFL. So I wont hold it against him too much. But we need to stop pumping guys up based on the box score.

Problem is YOU didn't watch the game, actually.

I watched every minute, live. From what I saw, it seemed somewhere around half of Ajayi's carries were chunk gains, 1st quarter to 4th. The reason the ypc was low before the 4th quarter was because the other approximate half of his carries were instances where the Jet's as-advertised front was blowing up the line-of-scrimmage and disallowing any sort of gains, even if Ajayi had been in-prime Adrian Peterson out there. The final statline belies how well the Jets run-D actually played for most of the game. His first three carries, iirc, went for -8 yards. And then the fourth carry he took for 20 yards and a touchdown. And that was typical of the day Ajayi had.

Contrary to your assertion, the truth of the tape is that Ajayi ultimately looked even more impressive in this game than he did vs Pittsburgh, in which the line did most of the work for him and he just took advantage. Instead, in this game he shrugged off no-gains and losses from blown up blocking to consistently bounce right back for chunk gains.

And that he got 44 yards in the fourth quarter is (obviously) a GOOD thing, because its shows Ajayi wore down the Jets D, bullied them into eventual submission. That is exactly one of the hallmarks of a dominant workhorse power-back. You don't want them to fade as the game wears on, you want them to get better. That's what Jay Ajayi did. In fact it's what he's done three straight weeks now; those previous 200-yard days are thanks to him breaking tackles at the second-level in the 4th quarter and ripping off huge runs. It's a definite trend at this point. And you can't say those last four carries were garbage time carries, either; Miami won by four points and Ajayi's late dominance helped seal the win.

https://www.profootballfocus.com/pro-nf ... phins-win/

Ajayi scored a 71.6 here. A good score vs a dominant run-D, and good for the team's fifth best grade on offense. Also note Tannehill gave Ajayi little help by managing a worst-than-replacement-level grade of 46 on the day.

Now keep reading and note the grades for the Jets on defense. They were terrific, and that's three linemen plus the run-stopping strong-safety. That Ajayi still graded out respectably when these guys were killing it out there only makes Ajayi look better.


We want season-long RB1s to be close to match-up proof, as a core trait of the tier. Well, what the heck do you think you saw yesterday, bud?

I actually watched most of that game, but thanks!!

And depending on your definition of "chunk play" he certainly didnt have half of his runs being chunk plays. He maybe had 4-5 plays over 7 yards. 2 of which were on the final drive.

And I get the whole point of wearing down a defense, this is not that case. He didnt wear them down all game, then go into the 4th quarter and started pounding away. It was LITERALLY the final drive. If the Jets had scored on their previous drive and taken the lead, you wouldnt have even seen him run the ball.

You saw a match up proof player yesterday?? I dont understand how someone can be match up proof with the stat line I provided. What Ajayi did was good for your fantasy team, but I would never hitch my wagon on him ever. That is asking for trouble when his line has an average day or he cant bust those big runs.

Seems as if the offensive line gets the blame when Ajayi has an average or below average game. And Ajayi gets the credit when he has a good game. Sorry if I am not on board with pumping him up as a RB1. There are just too many red flags and variables that go into play with his good games.

[Litesout13]

Exactly. You are basically replying to "Ajayi didn't do well because he only got 100 yards against a top 5 run defense. He was stopped on plays so obviously he isn't very good and everyone who thinks so is a sheep."

Some people.

Lol yes, that is exactly what was said. Sorry if you arent capable of critical thinking, breaking down an entire game, and putting it into perspective. Not every game, actually most, arent as cut and dry as you would like to think they are. But keep focusing on the box score

Some people

[Phaded]

But keep focusing on the box score

Box score & YPC are king.
They never fail.

That said - yeah; he was bad in the first half, but a lot of RBs make their way in the second half. That was what Gurley did last year, as opposing defenses get tired (and now we see how that turned out). It was the tale of two halves, really. However, I think it is risky territory when RBs seem to only get it done in the back half - but luckily for FF owners; all 4 quarters count.

[ninotoreS]

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/dolph ... jay-ajayi/

Gase said of Ajayi after the win, "I'm never going to go away from him," per the Palm Beach Post.

***

I actually watched most of that game, but thanks!!

Don't think I believe you. I'm 80% sure I recall your nick from previous incidences of posting misinformation related to lack of football actually watched. But I'm bad about remembering aliases, so it's possible I'm wrong.

Here's a litmus test: you a fan of Matt Kelley?

You saw a match up proof player yesterday?? I dont understand how someone can be match up proof with the stat line I provided.

Really. You can't understand it. Maybe I can help you. 'Match-up proof' is a fantasy-context phrase indicating a player that produces fantasy points regardless of match-up. LIke, say, vs the league's #1 run-D. Which Ajayi posted 20 fantasy points against in half-ppr. You understand it yet?

The efficiency of how the player does it is beside the point, in the 'match-up proof' context. And I've already successfully addressed that regardless; couldn't help but notice you avoided responding to the PFF grading that contradicts your opinion.

That said - yeah; he was bad in the first half, but a lot of RBs make their way in the second half. That was what Gurley did last year, as opposing defenses get tired (and now we see how that turned out). It was the tale of two halves, really. However, I think it is risky territory when RBs seem to only get it done in the back half

You seem to be throwing shade at several of the sport's greatest ever power-backs enshrined in Canton. Regardless, Jay didn't need the 4th quarter to produce 140-150 of his yards vs Pitt and Buffalo, did he?

[ninotoreS]

Anyway. With the exception of Week 12, the rest of Ajayi's schedule is unfavorable. Including the Chargers next week, who have been great in run-D since Week 2.

Obviously the pro-Ajayi argument is already pretty strong, but suffice it to say that if Ajayi continues to produce RB1 numbers through this '16 schedule, the debate regarding his talent level should be settled.

[thebeast]

I tuned in on a few plays - didn't William and Drake both have a few nice runs? It is Ajayi or the line that is producing the results lately? I feel like it's the line.