Ajayi Didn't Just Suddenly "Get Gud" -- A study in context

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heyfeefellskee
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Re: Ajayi Didn't Just Suddenly "Get Gud" -- A study in conte

Postby heyfeefellskee » Thu Oct 27, 2016 7:52 am

Cameron Giles wrote:
If 31 people decide not to buy a Mercedes-Benz from a dealer because it has problems that will limit the longevity, but you buy it anyway on the cheap, how do you conclude that the problems were bogus?


By looking under the hood and/or taking it for a test drive and saying "oh, those problems were bogus."
Cameron Giles wrote: It's not a rumor if you have direct access to someone's medical status and history.


Stuff gets leaked all the time. All. the. time. Your assumption here is that multiple teams look at his medical status themselves and said, "wow, this is concerning!"
Cameron Giles wrote: There's no denying that GM's can get player evaluation wrong when it comes to actual football reasons, but when you are looking directly at a player's medical history and speaking with doctors, how much guessing do you think there is?


Good point. When did this happen? Was there a specific person that saw the actual medical reports (different than the reports of reports retweeted by Schefter)?
Cameron Giles wrote: You're asking for something that is only accessible by the 32 NFL teams that dropped him to the 5th round or later. The fall tells the story.
:wall:
But the lack of actual evidence is reality.

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Re: Ajayi Didn't Just Suddenly "Get Gud" -- A study in conte

Postby Cameron Giles » Thu Oct 27, 2016 7:56 am

That car can break down after 2-3 years and prove why nobody wanted it. Just because it drove fine off the lot, doesn't get you in the clear.

Your conclusion is based off something impossible, which is intellectually dishonest. You and me will never have access to the medical reports, but that doesn't mean they don't exist and that teams went off rumors.

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Re: Ajayi Didn't Just Suddenly

Postby heyfeefellskee » Thu Oct 27, 2016 8:05 am

Cameron Giles wrote:That car can break down after 2-3 years and prove why nobody wanted it. Just because it drove fine off the lot, doesn't get you in the clear.
Or the car drives fine for many years and you conclude that 1 person started a rumor--perhaps trying to get a better deal, perhaps out of incompetence--and the other 30 believed it.
Cameron Giles wrote: Your conclusion is based off something impossible, which is intellectually dishonest. You and me will never have access to the medical reports, but that doesn't mean they don't exist and that teams went off rumors.
You are continually putting a ton of faith in the assumption that other teams *must* have had access to these alleged reports. What you say is true: you can't prove something if you don't have any evidence. So, you and I cannot prove that Ajayi does or does not have existing medical charts showing a degenerative knee. However, the fact there is no evidence to prove either should be considered very carefully.

Very relevant here:

Video. Warning: some language, but otherwise safe for work.

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Re: Ajayi Didn't Just Suddenly "Get Gud" -- A study in conte

Postby Cameron Giles » Thu Oct 27, 2016 8:08 am

When don't teams have access to medical history? There is no assumption that they have access. They do have access.

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Re: Ajayi Didn't Just Suddenly "Get Gud" -- A study in conte

Postby JFever » Thu Oct 27, 2016 10:24 am

Back forth back forth... over what? Evidence. hmmm. If you want evidence, watch the dude play. THAT is evidence toward the fact that the Knee issues were very very likely blown out of proportion / exaggerated. So much crap gets tossed around by NFL GM's near draft time. Teams jockying for position. Throwing out rumors, stirring the pot... To think that doesn't happen is naive at best. Frankly, it is ignorant.

Bottom line, Rb is a volatile position. Almost any player in the league is subject to incredible risk every week. To worry yourselves about the "degenerative knee issue" following the 2 - 200 yd games from the kid seems incredibly silly. The almighty Todd Gurley has had major knee issues himself and on any given snap, his career could come to an end. It is the nature of the rb position and that somewhat short term approach NEEDS to be applied to the rb position. Same damb reason why you wouldn't build around Rb. You add them later in the process. Splitting hairs over evidence, rumors, etc that teams may have had or may not have had in this situation seems a waste of time.

Bottom line again.... Watch him play. Those two back to back performances are evidence enough that he is a viable fantasy football asset.
Truth is found through Evidence.

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* Reality (as defined by Webster's dictionary) - A word for things as they actually exist, as opposed to an idealistic or notional ideal of them.

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Re: Ajayi Didn't Just Suddenly "Get Gud" -- A study in conte

Postby The Red Rooster » Thu Oct 27, 2016 11:45 am

Why are we arguing medical issues? Ajayi is killing it right now and its obviously WAY too late to jump on the train now. If you did, you may reap the benefits moving forward...if not, you simply missed out on potential production. If he's knees act up in 3 years but he keeps getting 20 touches a game and is mostly productive until then, he is well worth any investment made in him prior to two weeks ago. Honestly, he would be worth quite a bit even if his knees only take him through his current rookie contract. No one on here knows anything about his knees...unless you are on the Fins medical staff.

It seems opinions on Ajyai have not changed from the preseason...those that liked him before Foster are saying "I told you so"...those that thought he was a bum are saying "its only two weeks". Bottom line, the guy has looked ridiculously good the past two games and any fantasy football manger should be thrilled to have him right now...just dont buy high if you dont...and def dont sell low if you do.

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Re: Ajayi Didn't Just Suddenly "Get Gud" -- A study in conte

Postby JFever » Thu Oct 27, 2016 12:01 pm

Well said Mountain.

I've been a hopeful believer from the get go but wasn't overly confident due to the rumors. I was confident however that the answer wasn't Arian Foster. I knew Ajayi would get his shot and just hoped he'd do something with it. The knee thing was a minor concern. Still is. Injuries happen in this sport, regardless of pre existing degenerative type issues. LOTS of talented Rb have had their career cut short, even very short - completely unexpectedly. Over reacting and dropping a talented player too far based off of rumors circling around draft time was just not a wise move. Sometimes we can be too conservative in our hobby. I don't blame NFL teams however. They have MUCH more on the line than we do.
Truth is found through Evidence.

Science is the poetry of reality.

* Reality (as defined by Webster's dictionary) - A word for things as they actually exist, as opposed to an idealistic or notional ideal of them.

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Re: Ajayi Didn't Just Suddenly "Get Gud" -- A study in conte

Postby ninotoreS » Fri Oct 28, 2016 1:39 pm

Let's recall the verbatim rumor/report by Schefter: "bone on bone". The report wasn't that it would be bone on bone at some vague future point, it was claiming the status quo.

Also, please, read this:
It's unknown how many teams had their doctors examine him on an individual basis but many of the reports that surfaced claimed to be based on a medical recheck performed at the Indianapolis Scouting Combine. The problem with those reports is that Ajayi did not attend any medical rechecks at the combine. Ajayi's agent, Erik Burkhardt, confirmed via Twitter that he did not and was never even asked to attend the recheck. Some reports claimed that this information had been going around the NFL but what is known is that teams tend to not share medical information obtained from a player in any way even off the record. It seems unlikely that too many GM's would be out there spreading confidential medical information about a player even "off the record" but its not unlikely that some rumor spreading may have otherwise occurred during the season of "misinformation" in the NFL.
So, Mr. Giles, the evidence (proof?) that the rumor was either grossly exaggerated or outright fabricated lies simply with the fact that Jay Ajayi is not in any shape, form, or fashion moving like a man with no cartilage in his knee. And hasn't been for half a decade now since the injury that supposedly caused the issue. Which was exactly 900 collegiate and pro touches ago.

Isn't it that simple? Shouldn't it be that simple? Let's do some critical-thinking, some logical inference: if the knee was degenerating all this time, how plausible is it that the most recent 54 of those 900 touches since the injury occurred would result in 400+ rushing yards vs the pinnacle of football competition, displaying a player at the evident peak of his athletic prowess to date? Where is the supposed degeneration evidenced here? Does he look like he's losing a step compared to his Boise tape? No, if anything, he looks a bit quicker. Is he routinely, mysteriously limited in practice, or taking suspicious 'rest days'? No.

Shouldn't speculation and rumor cease to be very believable when the visible reality comes out and plainly contradicts it?

Isn't this common sense?

At some point, one has no other reasonable option but to conclude that the fire he's searching for apparently doesn't exist since he can't find actual smoke anywhere.

As for Ajayi's drop to the 5th, i.e. "32 teams passing on him that long must prove everything", you are not considering, at all, important context here. 1.) Last year's class was famously deep with primo RB prospects, so the teams with the most need at the position had plenty of other great options to choose from. So even if they knew the rumor was dubious, why take the risk if the next guy up on their board was also graded for Day 2 and only behind Ajayi by a trivial margin? 2.) RB is an increasingly devalued position among NFL front-offices, as it's become seen as very replaceable production. So it doesn't take much to drop an RB these days down the board, in other words. Like, say, one vague rumor about a problem with his knee. 3.) If you think about it, It's actually a vote of confidence in Ajayi that he was still drafted in the 5th round. Consider how guys like Booker and Dixon this year also went on Day 3, and they didn't have any degenerative knee rumor!
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Re: Ajayi Didn't Just Suddenly "Get Gud" -- A study in conte

Postby thebeast » Sun Nov 06, 2016 2:14 pm

That dolphins run blocking is really gud.

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Re: Ajayi Didn't Just Suddenly "Get Gud" -- A study in conte

Postby snitchinsider » Sun Nov 06, 2016 2:42 pm

thebeast wrote:That dolphins run blocking is really gud.
Except for like the seven plays Ajayi was hit behind the line.
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Re: Ajayi Didn't Just Suddenly "Get Gud" -- A study in conte

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Sun Nov 06, 2016 2:54 pm

He looks pretty good. I still don't like him long term, but he's around the likes of cja or Doug Martin right?

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Re: Ajayi Didn't Just Suddenly "Get Gud" -- A study in conte

Postby ninotoreS » Sun Nov 06, 2016 3:26 pm

Miami blocking was pretty hit or miss today, actually. Some stretch zone runs were blocked well, but for the most part the Jets front was strong. Jay earned his numbers today, and committing a big load to him again once more allowed Miami to win time of possession, and once more saw Ajayi wear down the opposing D late. He's showing all the traits of a workhorse RB in the traditional mold.

And all these explosive fourth quarter runs continue to undermine the narrative that there's an issue with his knee.
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Re: Ajayi Didn't Just Suddenly "Get Gud" -- A study in conte

Postby jcc6fd » Sun Nov 06, 2016 3:39 pm

Dynasty DeLorean wrote:He looks pretty good. I still don't like him long term, but he's around the likes of cja or Doug Martin right?
I think that's fair. DMart should be worth more but he's probably in that discussion.
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Re: Ajayi Didn't Just Suddenly "Get Gud" -- A study in conte

Postby ninotoreS » Sun Nov 06, 2016 7:43 pm

Seems to me Ajayi is worth more than CJA and Martin now, because CJA is presently being usurped by Booker and Martin will be 28 to start next season (i.e. the approximate age RB decline historically begins).

Of the RBs the Jets have faced thus far this season, only David Johnson performed as well as Ajayi did today. He outperformed Bell, McCoy, Ware, Crowell, Michael, Forte, etc. Assuming Ajayi can keep ahead of whatever selections Miami might make in next year's talent laden RB class, currently he has all the indications of a long-term dynasty RB1. All this recent talk by commentators/pundits that Ajayi is the type of RB that needs 20+ carries every week to get the most out of him is music to the ears of his fantasy owners.
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Re: Ajayi Didn't Just Suddenly "Get Gud" -- A study in conte

Postby Phaded » Sun Nov 06, 2016 8:06 pm

Dynasty DeLorean wrote:He looks pretty good. I still don't like him long term, but he's around the likes of cja or Doug Martin right?
I own both and would be hard pressed to give them up for Ajayi; but I can see the argument for him being around them and it probably being personal preference.


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