Jordan Howard: Stock Up?

[TheSpidersFromMars]

Why? Because my opinion is different from yours?

No, I just wouldnt be surprised that youre no longer looking at him objectively since youve been so firmly planted in your opinion for so long. I think you might just be rooting for your opinion to be right.

Ive watched every snap btw, and I think its odd that you used that argument just now. I think you were the one that wanted nothing to do with looking into him simply because he was taken in the 5th round.

For the record, I dont think the guys elite, and maybe we both interpret "average" differently. Do you think he is a top 20 dynasty RB? Where would you rank him? I guess im thinking average means a backup/fringe RB.

[TheSpidersFromMars]

Doesnt seem very average to me.

https://twitter.com/ScottBarrettDFB/sta ... 5956965376

[derekhiny]

I find it odd when people talk about players and say things like "if you take this long play away from him", or "the defense was greatly out of position", etc. Then use the after numbers without those gains to make your point. Defensive players are out of position all the time leading to positive gains on runs and passes. That's football. Is it always as glaringly obvious, or for as big of a gain? No. But it still happens very routinely, and allows the offensive players to accrue yardage. A safety being a step or two late and out of position when he's supposed to be one providing help over the top? Multiple times per game leading to chunk yardage for a WR, but we don't talk about that. I do agree with Phaded that YPC should not be a be all end all stat. Too many factors. But I disagree that we can take the chunk yardage gains away, make excuses for why they happened, then judge based on the after numbers. Unless we're going to do it every single time that it happens. Which we won't, especially when we realize how many yards the players we actually like get because of faulty defensive play. Greats like Barry Sanders and AP would have an immense amt of games with 24 carries for 82 yards if you take the one large chunk yardage play out of their stat line. Hell, Sanders is one of the best RBs who ever played the game, but his carries in game were very much like 2 yards, 1 yard, -3 yards, 24 yards ... giving him that 6.0 ypc in game. AP is no different. No RB gains 5 yards every play. That's why it's an average.

I own Howard, and think he has the potential to be the real deal. A sure fire RB1? No. But a solid RB2? Absolutely. I've said in multiple posts that I would sell for 1.7 or better, as I'm not married to any RB due to the nature of the position. But anything below 1.7, I'm more than content to hold and see what I've already got in him.

[Litesout13]

I find it odd when people talk about players and say things like "if you take this long play away from him", or "the defense was greatly out of position", etc. Then use the after numbers without those gains to make your point. Defensive players are out of position all the time leading to positive gains on runs and passes. That's football. Is it always as glaringly obvious, or for as big of a gain? No. But it still happens very routinely, and allows the offensive players to accrue yardage. A safety being a step or two late and out of position when he's supposed to be one providing help over the top? Multiple times per game leading to chunk yardage for a WR, but we don't talk about that. I do agree with Phaded that YPC should not be a be all end all stat. Too many factors. But I disagree that we can take the chunk yardage gains away, make excuses for why they happened, then judge based on the after numbers. Unless we're going to do it every single time that it happens. Which we won't, especially when we realize how many yards the players we actually like get because of faulty defensive play. Greats like Barry Sanders and AP would have an immense amt of games with 24 carries for 82 yards if you take the one large chunk yardage play out of their stat line. Hell, Sanders is one of the best RBs who ever played the game, but his carries in game were very much like 2 yards, 1 yard, -3 yards, 24 yards ... giving him that 6.0 ypc in game. AP is no different. No RB gains 5 yards every play. That's why it's an average.

I own Howard, and think he has the potential to be the real deal. A sure fire RB1? No. But a solid RB2? Absolutely. I've said in multiple posts that I would sell for 1.7 or better, as I'm not married to any RB due to the nature of the position. But anything below 1.7, I'm more than content to hold and see what I've already got in him.

A lot of people watch games/film and gauge their value of a player based on stuff like that. If a player gets 100 yards and a TD on 20 carries, it looks like they averaged 5.0 YPC and had a good fantasy day. But if there was 1 carry for a 50 yard TD, you have to consider that. Meaning that player was 19 for 50 yards prior to a breakout play. Many look at these things to determine the likelihood of that player having sustainable success.

Not saying my opinion on Howard either way, just saying stuff like that should factor in. It is how you take advantage of people who check out the box scores.

[derekhiny]

I find it odd when people talk about players and say things like "if you take this long play away from him", or "the defense was greatly out of position", etc. Then use the after numbers without those gains to make your point. Defensive players are out of position all the time leading to positive gains on runs and passes. That's football. Is it always as glaringly obvious, or for as big of a gain? No. But it still happens very routinely, and allows the offensive players to accrue yardage. A safety being a step or two late and out of position when he's supposed to be one providing help over the top? Multiple times per game leading to chunk yardage for a WR, but we don't talk about that. I do agree with Phaded that YPC should not be a be all end all stat. Too many factors. But I disagree that we can take the chunk yardage gains away, make excuses for why they happened, then judge based on the after numbers. Unless we're going to do it every single time that it happens. Which we won't, especially when we realize how many yards the players we actually like get because of faulty defensive play. Greats like Barry Sanders and AP would have an immense amt of games with 24 carries for 82 yards if you take the one large chunk yardage play out of their stat line. Hell, Sanders is one of the best RBs who ever played the game, but his carries in game were very much like 2 yards, 1 yard, -3 yards, 24 yards ... giving him that 6.0 ypc in game. AP is no different. No RB gains 5 yards every play. That's why it's an average.

I own Howard, and think he has the potential to be the real deal. A sure fire RB1? No. But a solid RB2? Absolutely. I've said in multiple posts that I would sell for 1.7 or better, as I'm not married to any RB due to the nature of the position. But anything below 1.7, I'm more than content to hold and see what I've already got in him.

A lot of people watch games/film and gauge their value of a player based on stuff like that. If a player gets 100 yards and a TD on 20 carries, it looks like they averaged 5.0 YPC and had a good fantasy day. But if there was 1 carry for a 50 yard TD, you have to consider that. Meaning that player was 19 for 50 yards prior to a breakout play. Many look at these things to determine the likelihood of that player having sustainable success.

Not saying my opinion on Howard either way, just saying stuff like that should factor in. It is how you take advantage of people who check out the box scores.

I understand that, and I'm certainly not disagreeing with you. But my overall point was, the type of stat line that you just referenced, as well as how that stat line was achieved as you also referenced, is more common than most people think, even amongst the greats. And how many only tend to focus on those types of things with the players they don't particularly have an affinity for, while ignoring those same types of means to an end stat lines with the players they do. We could legitimately pick apart every single play in the NFL and find a defensive player out of position somewhere in a majority of them when a player has a solid gain. As well as 2nd and 3rd stringers screwing things up lol. Not always for 50 yards in one big play, but maybe 5 plays of 10 yards each throughout a game that shouldn't have happened if the OLB had kept outside leverage like he was supposed to, and didn't allow the RB a free bounce to the outside (just a flippant example). How's that RB's stat line look if those 5 plays were held to 2 yards like they were supposed to be? Again, I'm not disagreeing with you. I guess all I'm trying to say is ... if you're going to analyze how the yardage was accrued and draw conclusions based off of that data, it needs to go well beyond just the chunk yardage plays, and it needs to be fair across the board with all players.

[Litesout13]

A lot of people watch games/film and gauge their value of a player based on stuff like that. If a player gets 100 yards and a TD on 20 carries, it looks like they averaged 5.0 YPC and had a good fantasy day. But if there was 1 carry for a 50 yard TD, you have to consider that. Meaning that player was 19 for 50 yards prior to a breakout play. Many look at these things to determine the likelihood of that player having sustainable success.

Not saying my opinion on Howard either way, just saying stuff like that should factor in. It is how you take advantage of people who check out the box scores.

I understand that, and I'm certainly not disagreeing with you. But my overall point was, the type of stat line that you just referenced, as well as how that stat line was achieved as you also referenced, is more common than most people think, even amongst the greats. And how many only tend to focus on those types of things with the players they don't particularly have an affinity for, while ignoring those same types of means to an end stat lines with the players they do. We could legitimately pick apart every single play in the NFL and find a defensive player out of position somewhere in a majority of them when a player has a solid gain. As well as 2nd and 3rd stringers screwing things up lol. Not always for 50 yards in one big play, but maybe 5 plays of 10 yards each throughout a game that shouldn't have happened if the OLB had kept outside leverage like he was supposed to, and didn't allow the RB a free bounce to the outside (just a flippant example). How's that RB's stat line look if those 5 plays were held to 2 yards like they were supposed to be? Again, I'm not disagreeing with you. I guess all I'm trying to say is ... if you're going to analyze how the yardage was accrued and draw conclusions based off of that data, it needs to go well beyond just the chunk yardage plays, and it needs to be fair across the board with all players.

I dont disagree. I think the difference between the high caliber RBs is that they dont "need" those plays as often to be successful and/or the likelihood of those plays happening is far greater, even without someone being out of position.

AP didnt need a guy to be out of position. His vision to find the hole and explosion to hit it and blow past the first 2 levels of a defense was elite. To where even if the LB was doing everything right, AP was just simply too good and beat him to the spot and broke a run. If someone was out of position against AP, you are looking at an 80 yard TD not just a 10-20 yard run.

But if someone is singling out that 1 play for Howard and trying to discredit his entire body of work, then thats a problem. I personally think it is too early to be making a definitive statement on Howard. He has shown good production and bad production, which is what both sides of the coin are using to try and validate their point.

[John Paul]

Proud owner.

[TheSpidersFromMars]

Honestly, I cant even believe there is a discussion that even tries to discredit his 69 yard run. Why cant Howard's decisive cut be the reason the safety was out of position? Watch the play.

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-high ... 9-yard-run

You arent going to credit him for making his cut with perfect timing? Youre not going to credit his athletic ability in exploding through that hole? Youre not going to credit the tackle he broke? Youre not going to credit his sudden change of direction to exploit the safety's bad angle? Those small hesitation moves (I know they dont look like much to people around here, but they are incredibly effective when running the football - shocker) are what makes him good, and its why he was able to rip off a 70 yarder. Im pretty sure nobody here would say anything about the safety unless Gruden hadnt. Lets pretend the safety was in perfect position...youre not giving him credit for a nice 20 yard run?

People's desire to be right far overreaches objectivity around here.

[Litesout13]

Honestly, I cant even believe there is a discussion that even tries to discredit his 69 yard run. Why cant Howard's decisive cut be the reason the safety was out of position? Watch the play.

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-high ... 9-yard-run

You arent going to credit him for making his cut with perfect timing? Youre not going to credit his athletic ability in exploding through that hole? Youre not going to credit the tackle he broke? Youre not going to credit his sudden change of direction to exploit the safety's bad angle? Those small hesitation moves (I know they dont look like much to people around here, but they are incredibly effective when running the football - shocker) are what makes him good, and its why he was able to rip off a 70 yarder. Im pretty sure nobody here would say anything about the safety unless Gruden hadnt. Lets pretend the safety was in perfect position...youre not giving him credit for a nice 20 yard run?

People's desire to be right far overreaches objectivity around here.

If the safety is where he should be, its barely a 10 yard run. He took the ball exactly where it was designed, broke a bad tackle attempt, then gets stopped for an 8-10 yard gain.

A nice play, but nothing to make everyone over react, right??

I am not trying to discredit him per say, but it sounds like you are saying a bunch of things to pump him up. There are a large number of RBs in the NFL that can make that play and a many that would have taken it to the house.

[TheSpidersFromMars]

If the safety is where he should be, its barely a 10 yard run. He took the ball exactly where it was designed, broke a bad tackle attempt, then gets stopped for an 8-10 yard gain.

A nice play, but nothing to make everyone over react, right??

I am not trying to discredit him per say, but it sounds like you are saying a bunch of things to pump him up. There are a large number of RBs in the NFL that can make that play and a many that would have taken it to the house.

I disagree that everyone would make that play. I think youd be surprised at how important timing is, and I think people around here largely blind to what its actually like running ball in the trenches like that. Im not pumping him up - im just saying what he is. Let's say that run is a 15 yarder...so he puts up a 25/100/1 against an elite defense and people wanna act like its just average?

[Phaded]

People's desire to be right far overreaches objectivity around here.

Oh, the irony of this statement coming from you.

You accuse people of trying too hard to find knocks on this guy; but I could easily say you are overreaching to say nothing but positives about this guy.

Just because everyone does not agree with your opinion - it does not mean they are not being objective.

I stopped posting in this thread primarily because there is no point debating with you; you have a clear infatuation with this guy and trying to "prove that you are right". Anyone who says anything negative about him, you jump all over and claim they cannot be objective. It is like hail around these parts last year when it came to the Jags. I am being completely objective; I honestly do not care if he does well or not. I've admitted around here when I've been wrong before so it is not like I am being stubborn.

I get it - you like him.. but just because you do, it does not mean everyone else has to.

[TheSpidersFromMars]

People's desire to be right far overreaches objectivity around here.

Oh, the irony of this statement coming from you.

You accuse people of trying too hard to find knocks on this guy; but I could easily say you are overreaching to say nothing but positives about this guy.

Just because everyone does not agree with your opinion - it does not mean they are not being objective.

I stopped posting in this thread primarily because there is no point debating with you; you have a clear infatuation with this guy and trying to "prove that you are right". Anyone who says anything negative about him, you jump all over and claim they cannot be objective. It is like hail around these parts last year when it came to the Jags. I am being completely objective; I honestly do not care if he does well or not. I've admitted around here when I've been wrong before so it is not like I am being stubborn.

I get it - you like him.. but just because you do, it does not mean everyone else has to.

Objectivity would be making opinions out of the data and facts which is all ive ever done. Your opinions are based on your own version of an eye test - which is fine...encouraged even, but at a certain point you have to calibrate that with what is actually happening.

If you take the 6 games where Howard was game planned into the week (weeks 3-8) his numbers extrapolate to 1736 total yards with 42 catches and 8 touchdowns. Those are top 5 numbers. Im not for sure saying that will happen, but the objective thing to do would be to take note of it and factor it into what you think about him. Is that crazy or something? Does everyone not do that? Add to the fact that he has credited with making the most forced tackles this season without even playing a full schedule...idk what to tell you man. Theyre just facts. Me saying that its more probable that he's above average than average based on those facts is just rational evaluation.

[Litesout13]

If the safety is where he should be, its barely a 10 yard run. He took the ball exactly where it was designed, broke a bad tackle attempt, then gets stopped for an 8-10 yard gain.

A nice play, but nothing to make everyone over react, right??

I am not trying to discredit him per say, but it sounds like you are saying a bunch of things to pump him up. There are a large number of RBs in the NFL that can make that play and a many that would have taken it to the house.

I disagree that everyone would make that play. I think youd be surprised at how important timing is, and I think people around here largely blind to what its actually like running ball in the trenches like that. Im not pumping him up - im just saying what he is. Let's say that run is a 15 yarder...so he puts up a 25/100/1 against an elite defense and people wanna act like its just average?

Again, look at where the safety is, he may or may not have gotten a 1st down...you are doing what you claim everyone else is doing. It wouldnt have been a 15 or 20 yard run unless he broke another tackle from the safety.

And im well aware of what it takes. He didnt do all that much. He was patient and ran the ball where the play was designed. The defender that tried to tackle him made a poor attempt. He didnt have to do much to break that.

Here are some of the RBs I think can make that play: LeSean McCoy, Matt Forte, Jeremy Hill, Le'Veon Bell, Lamar Miller, Frank Gore, Demarco Murray, Spencer Ware, Jamaal Charles, Zeke Elliott, Latavius Murray, Melvin Gordon, Devonta Freeman, Tevin Coleman, Jonathan Stewart, Mark Ingram, Doug Martin, David Johnson, Todd Gurley, Carlos Hyde, Christine Michael, Thomas Rawls....and maybe even a few back ups could too like Gillislee, Gio, Duke, Crowell, DeAngelo Williams, Charcandrick West, Alfred Morris, Darren McFadden, Charles Sims

This is being generous on who can make that play. Im sure there are more. That wasnt a high level play by any means.

Again, im not discrediting Howard as a whole. He very well may turn out to be a good RB. But trying to use this run as an example of him being good is an exaggeration

[TheSpidersFromMars]

If the safety is where he should be, its barely a 10 yard run. He took the ball exactly where it was designed, broke a bad tackle attempt, then gets stopped for an 8-10 yard gain.

A nice play, but nothing to make everyone over react, right??

I am not trying to discredit him per say, but it sounds like you are saying a bunch of things to pump him up. There are a large number of RBs in the NFL that can make that play and a many that would have taken it to the house.

I disagree that everyone would make that play. I think youd be surprised at how important timing is, and I think people around here largely blind to what its actually like running ball in the trenches like that. Im not pumping him up - im just saying what he is. Let's say that run is a 15 yarder...so he puts up a 25/100/1 against an elite defense and people wanna act like its just average?

Again, look at where the safety is, he may or may not have gotten a 1st down...you are doing what you claim everyone else is doing. It wouldnt have been a 15 or 20 yard run unless he broke another tackle from the safety.

And im well aware of what it takes. He didnt do all that much. He was patient and ran the ball where the play was designed. The defender that tried to tackle him made a poor attempt. He didnt have to do much to break that.

Here are some of the RBs I think can make that play: LeSean McCoy, Matt Forte, Jeremy Hill, Le'Veon Bell, Lamar Miller, Frank Gore, Demarco Murray, Spencer Ware, Jamaal Charles, Zeke Elliott, Latavius Murray, Melvin Gordon, Devonta Freeman, Tevin Coleman, Jonathan Stewart, Mark Ingram, Doug Martin, David Johnson, Todd Gurley, Carlos Hyde, Christine Michael, Thomas Rawls....and maybe even a few back ups could too like Gillislee, Gio, Duke, Crowell, DeAngelo Williams, Charcandrick West, Alfred Morris, Darren McFadden, Charles Sims

This is being generous on who can make that play. Im sure there are more. That wasnt a high level play by any means.

Again, im not discrediting Howard as a whole. He very well may turn out to be a good RB. But trying to use this run as an example of him being good is an exaggeration

Im not on board with all those guys from a timing/mental side. Athletically - sure.

[Litesout13]

Well, you are wrong. Sorry

And Howard, since Langford went down, has 3 good games and 2 bad games. Stop pumping him into this elite back before he even has enough of a sample size to do so