OBJ #1 fantasy asset in FF?

[dm1129]

We have been down this road before....

viewtopic.php?f=5&t=63976

You act like there is a definitive answer, so I will give you mine... I've been playing this game now for 27 years and I consider 3 years the absolute max to project for anyone. There is no way you can even know that far out what will happen with anyone. There have been plenty of WRs who flashed briefly in this league only to fade away. Will it happen to OBJ? No idea. But it is just as likely it happens to him as anyone I named. He isn't in his own tier, but his owners are certainly welcome to view him that way. I do not agree.

I agree, no one knows exactly what any player will be doing three years from now. However, the irony is you are ignoring the one factor that everyone knows with certainty: AGE. I know for a fact that OBJ will be 26 years old three years from now. I know Julio Jones will be 30 years old. I know Antonio Brown will be 31 years old. Based on 40 years of historical data on WR production, OBJ will just be approaching the age of peak production while both Jones and Brown will be in decline. Each year a player plays in the NFL, there is a greater chance of injury from the wear and tear of playing in the league as well as from the natural aging process or retirement. Ask anyone who valued Calvin Johnson above Julio, AJ Green, etc...three years ago. If you think what OBJ has done since coming into the league is a flash, that is a completely separate issue. OBJ is easily in his own Tier for me.

[sct]

This is has probably been said somewhere in the 2 pages, but I'll take 7-121 vs. "the best corner in football". Also, if you watched the game you may agree with me that Eli threw behind him on 2 potential TDs. First one was when Norman almost had the pick at the goal line and the second was on a shallow crossing route. And finally, keep in mind that he has two uncharacteristic TD drops in weeks 1 and 2. Best dynasty WR in my opinion with age putting him ahead of AB and Julio.

Completely agree. OBJ BURNED Norman for that TD, and Eli threw it about 4 yards behind where it should have been. OBJ slowed up, reached way behind him, and Norman dove forward to almost intercept it. Not a spectacular coverage, almost INT play like the announcers played it off as. OBJ burned his bleep and the pass wasn't delivered. Eli also missed a wide open OBJ for about a 75 yard reception, throwing to a contested Shepard instead. Just a bad QB read, but OBJ burned his coverage. If he were looked at on that play, it would have been over 200 and a TD for him going against primarily Norman. There is nothing wrong with OBJ right now. 121 against Norman when he was missed on multiple opportunities for a game that should have been so much bigger and people gather that he might not be that good?

And another thing! The reason he attacked the kicking net (and lost) was because the play before he was WIDE bleep OPEN on a corner route for a TD and Eli forced it to Shepard again! Seriously, it could have been a bigger game than Marvin's (whom I also started).

[TTHTD]

And another thing! The reason he attacked the kicking net (and lost) was because the play before he was WIDE bleep OPEN on a corner route for a TD and Eli forced it to Shepard again! Seriously, it could have been a bigger game than Marvin's (whom I also started).

Why do you think he's been forcing it to Shepard? Scared of Norman?

[sct]

Just saying Shepard wasn't open at all while obj was wide.

[nathanq42]

Just saying Shepard wasn't open at all while obj was wide.

True, but eli was locked in on Shepherd, Norman read his eyes and cheated big time. But chances are if eli wasn't eying down shepherd, Norman would have stayed on obj.

[ppm]

Just because he hasn't scored a TD yet? Still #1 by a decent margin for me.

[Novacane]

We have been down this road before....

viewtopic.php?f=5&t=63976

You act like there is a definitive answer, so I will give you mine... I've been playing this game now for 27 years and I consider 3 years the absolute max to project for anyone. There is no way you can even know that far out what will happen with anyone. There have been plenty of WRs who flashed briefly in this league only to fade away. Will it happen to OBJ? No idea. But it is just as likely it happens to him as anyone I named. He isn't in his own tier, but his owners are certainly welcome to view him that way. I do not agree.

I agree, no one knows exactly what any player will be doing three years from now. However, the irony is you are ignoring the one factor that everyone knows with certainty: AGE. I know for a fact that OBJ will be 26 years old three years from now. I know Julio Jones will be 30 years old. I know Antonio Brown will be 31 years old. Based on 40 years of historical data on WR production, OBJ will just be approaching the age of peak production while both Jones and Brown will be in decline. Each year a player plays in the NFL, there is a greater chance of injury from the wear and tear of playing in the league as well as from the natural aging process or retirement. Ask anyone who valued Calvin Johnson above Julio, AJ Green, etc...three years ago. If you think what OBJ has done since coming into the league is a flash, that is a completely separate issue. OBJ is easily in his own Tier for me.

I think the other thing you have to realize is that AB and Julio's "value" is very likely to go down irrespective of their actual production just based on perception. Fitzgerald and Marshall are guys whose production has maintained later in their careers (although both have had years of down production). Nevertheless, both have seen their values drop significantly to a point where their production > their "value." If you are holding the guy through retirement then it really does not matter what the market says, but looking back at your teams, you will find that in most cases it is atypical to hold a guy through retirement for a number of reasons. More importantly, having the option to move a guy with similar production but more perceived value would net a higher expected value, all things being equal.

As others have noted in this thread, OBJ has similar production and consistency as Julio and AB but is several years younger. That is worth something. Even if you think AB and/or Julio can produce later in their careers, there is no reason not to think the same about OBJ who is much younger. I definitely have him in his own tier. If guys like Cooper, ARob, Evans, Hopkins (i.e. guys with similar youth) produce at a high level this year, I think they will join him but until then give me OBJ.

[49ersFaithful80]

He's had the best start to his career of any WR in the history of the NFL and this year he's "only" on pace for 1,493 receiving yards. What are we even talking about?

TD's are pure luck.

He's clearly the #1 fantasy asset.

[whodunnit]

Almost sound like if you can get like for like production, you'll take the older player 'just because'. 3 years ago Calvin was top drawer. Can't predict retirement, but the risk is a lot higher at 30 than 25. Just a fact. Also have age insulation in markets where age is a huge factor. You simply get to protect yourself. Frankly, those variables are worth something even if I have to take 1-2 PPG less over the period, which is likely what you're talking even if you prefer the others.

Specific to OBJ, I think he's an idiot and don't want him. I'd get out for other assets as principal myself.

I agree with this. There's no denying OBJ's skill/production, but I put him on the block last week because I can't stand the guy. he's the new TO and while that's not necessarily a bad thing, I can't stand his diva-ness and would love to trade him, but the only interested league mate of mine thought that meant I would just give him away... So, looks like I'll hold

[People Mover]

The number one asset has to learn how to manage those emotions. I expected a huge explosion tonight. Even against the purple reign.

[lukkynumber13]

The number one asset has to learn how to manage those emotions. I expected a huge explosion tonight. Even against the purple reign.

Yeah I'll be honest, it's concerning how much of a head case he is.

[BuckeyeNation]

I've always kinda disliked OBJ, and he has some definite mental maturing to do, but he's still my #1 dynasty asset. He has the best combination of youth/upside/productive track record, so I can't put anyone else a ahead of him right now.

If not OBJ, who are we putting at 1? If you're completely indifferent to the whole age thing, then I guess you could go with Julio/Brown. Looking at the young WRs I'd say Hopkins/ARob/Cooper would be your best options, but I don't think any of them are on OBJs level from a pure ability standpoint.

[Seventy5]

I enjoy watching WRs who are passionate for the game. Those who are competitive and intense - a la Dez Bryant and Stefon Diggs to name a few. OBJ on the other hand can be rather embarrassing to watch at times.

[The Fantasy Feud]

lol yes he's not the poster boy of the NFL and the best at managing his emotions. Does not change the fact he's a top 3 receivier in the league and the number 1 dynasty asset.

[flyersfan1981]

lol yes he's not the poster boy of the NFL and the best at managing his emotions. Does not change the fact he's a top 3 receivier in the league and the number 1 dynasty asset.

Being totally OBJective of course, right?


He is good, but it is a fact that he is currently not a Top 3 WR in the league. It you are an age guy then sure he is in the conversation for top asset, but I will easily take Julio, AJG, Brown over him and probably still Hopkins or ARob.

Good player, but he is a pouty punk out there.