Is it time to pump the brakes on the Kelvin Benjamin hate?

[TheSpidersFromMars]

I haven't perceived any distinct trend for 'hate' on KB since his rookie year, before he started playing. Some people don't worship at his altar, but that isn't the same thing as 'hate'.

He was a thousand yarder as a rookie, and other than Olsen he's Cam's favorite target. I don't think he's Megatron, but he's obviously going to be / already is a quality professional football player.

As for Funchess, I think the OP is also overstating his fandom. This all sounds like owner persecution complex

He's often ranked around the mid 20s as far as dynasty WR's. He's usually put around guys like Emmanuel Sanders, Corey Coleman, and Kevin White etc. Also, his ADP is around the 31st WR taken in dynasty startup drafts. Most of the KB owners feel like he's probably in that Brandin Cooks type range.

Also, people jumped all over his target inefficiency and the fact that there are more "weapons" on the offense now. So lets just assume that KB's targets decrease by 20% (they wont) and his efficiency goes up by 10% (a fair number I think with a full year or two under his belt now). Under those circumstances his line projects to something like a 70/1000/10 which would have made him 16th last year in .5 ppr. Thats probably close to his floor, but nobody seems to give him that type of credit. If you take into account that his targets probably wont drop, and he's one of the more likely WR's to score a TD every week...you could make an argument that he should be ranked around 10-12.

[Fezzik]

I haven't perceived any distinct trend for 'hate' on KB since his rookie year, before he started playing. Some people don't worship at his altar, but that isn't the same thing as 'hate'.

He was a thousand yarder as a rookie, and other than Olsen he's Cam's favorite target. I don't think he's Megatron, but he's obviously going to be / already is a quality professional football player.

As for Funchess, I think the OP is also overstating his fandom. This all sounds like owner persecution complex

He's often ranked around the mid 20s as far as dynasty WR's. He's usually put around guys like Emmanuel Sanders, Corey Coleman, and Kevin White etc. Also, his ADP is around the 31st WR taken in dynasty startup drafts. Most of the KB owners feel like he's probably in that Brandin Cooks type range.

Also, people jumped all over his target inefficiency and the fact that there are more "weapons" on the offense now. So lets just assume that KB's targets decrease by 20% (they wont) and his efficiency goes up by 10% (a fair number I think with a full year or two under his belt now). Under those circumstances his line projects to something like a 70/1000/10 which would have made him 16th last year in .5 ppr. Thats probably close to his floor, but nobody seems to give him that type of credit. If you take into account that his targets probably wont drop, and he's one of the more likely WR's to score a TD every week...you could make an argument that he should be ranked around 10-12.

As with any analysis, the result is only as good as the input. You say his targets won't go down... why not? You say his efficiency on targets will improve... why? What specific skill set do you think he will improve that will all of a sudden increase his catch rate by 10%? His ability to run routes/separate?

[TheSpidersFromMars]

As with any analysis, the result is only as good as the input. You say his targets won't go down... why not? You say his efficiency on targets will improve... why? What specific skill set do you think he will improve that will all of a sudden increase his catch rate by 10%? His ability to run routes/separate?

Mainly because I have eyeballs and can see how much Cam loves throwing KB the ball. But, objectively speaking, he had 12 targets last night. He was targeted on 23% of snaps last night. Julio Jones led the league last year and averaged 22%. And this was on his first game back from an ACL tear, was knocking off rust, and was supposed to have limited snaps. Am I saying we can use this data to lock these numbers in? No, but fantasy sports is a game of judging probabilities. I think between Cam and KB's rapport, KB's usage his rookie year, and his usage last night it is a safe gamble to say its probable that his targets do not decrease by 20%. Also, the 10% number was plainly stated as a fair guess. Is it wrong to think its more probable his efficiency goes up with the more experience he gets?

[maxhyde]

Even if his efficiency doesn't go up it is easy to see Cam looks for him when they need to make a play. That is all I look for in a WR.
If the QB is constantly giving him a look and trusting him to make plays is good enough for me...analytics can say it isn't working but whatever.

[TheSpidersFromMars]

Also, KB was 4th in 2014 with 40 total uncatchable targets. Theres more reason to think that number goes down than goes up. He'll never be a beacon of efficiency, but the data seems to suggest that his rookie year is probably as inefficient as it gets.

[maxhyde]

Efficiency is a red herring for WR's.
You can be really productive with poor efficiency and not productive with great efficiency

[TheSpidersFromMars]

And I mean wouldnt KB be the poster boy of bad targets? They throw a lot of low percentage targets his way knowing that he'd be the only person to come down with it if anybody does.

[TTHTD]

I've heard the inefficiency argument a lot when talking about KB's rookie year, but he was raw coming in and was asked to carry a WR1 load right off the bat and he did it. Not a lot of guys would have done better in his shoes as a rookie and I don't think he gets nearly enough credit for what he accomplished his rookie year. After seeing his performance last night, and Newton's clear preference to throw the ball his way, I'm starting to wonder if maybe KB is an outlier regarding efficiency. He's such a tall strong physical specimen that they will chuck low percentage passes his way repeatedly knowing he's the only one that could come down with it, and just keep going to him despite the inefficient catch rate. Cam goes to him with catches that are just impossible to get to for the defender because he knows either KB gets the ball or no one does. It actually kind of perfect for Cam's strong but inaccurate passes.

[hammertoes]

I never understood or agreed with the "Kelvin Benjamin is horribly inefficient" argument that has made it's way around the dynasty community. It may be the case, but why does it matter? Cam loves feeding him the rock, he's going to get a ton of targets. Last time I checked most leagues don't give out fantasy points for efficiency.

[losingfriends]

I was one of the people pounding the table on his inneficiency and drops in 2014, but after watching the game last night I have to say it looks like I was dead wrong. Obviously time will tell, as it's only game one of a long season, but he's definitely moved up my board.

[maxhyde]

I never understood or agreed with the "Kelvin Benjamin is horribly inefficient" argument that has made it's way around the dynasty community. It may be the case, but why does it matter? Cam loves feeding him the rock, he's going to get a ton of targets. Last time I checked most leagues don't give out fantasy points for efficiency.

[floz00]

Efficiency as it pertains to Fantasy Football is a joke!

I'll provide some stats for a player many consider to be Hall of Fame worthy.
Here are his % efficiency by year:
2007- .516
2008- .520
2009- .489
2010- .562
2011- .607
2012- .598
2013- .538
2014- .555
2015- .590

Career %- .552

Can you guess who it is????
He's a big guy like Benjamin...
Here's where I got the stats:
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/p ... hnCa00.htm

Why haven't I ever heard anyone discussing how inefficient he was?????

[ArrylT]

Efficiency as it pertains to Fantasy Football is a joke!

I'll provide some stats for a player many consider to be Hall of Fame worthy.
Here are his % efficiency by year:
2007- .516
2008- .520
2009- .489
2010- .562
2011- .607
2012- .598
2013- .538
2014- .555
2015- .590

Career %- .552

Can you guess who it is????
He's a big guy like Benjamin...
Here's where I got the stats:
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/p ... hnCa00.htm

Why haven't I ever heard anyone discussing how inefficient he was?????

Can we use this argument for Davante Adams really inefficient season last year?

Well firstly, Kelvin Benjamin is not Calvin Johnson - and doesnt profile like Calvin Johnson.

Secondly, while I am not a "hater" there are other red flags that may keep Benjamin from being a Perennial WR1 - such as the fact that he does not have a lot of college production. Obviously he is not a bust like so many in the past - but it is still something that warrants consideration because his game is not as developed as many other WRs (maybe it doesnt need to be in that system). Then you add the fact that he has competition for a limited target volume, and a WR who may develop better than him, and finally conditioning concerns (ie limited snaps, increased chance at injury or missed playing time) and even without considering inefficiency there are warts to deal with.

You bring up Megatron, but a couple of things are different between Megatron & KB situation wise.

1 - Newton doesnt throw 600 PA a year. His MAX over 5 years is like 520. Whereas Staffords least over the last 5 years is 590. So the difference between Stafford least volume and Newtons best volume, which is 70 Targets(!!!), could feed a flex play WR like Ted Ginn.

2 - Megatron WAS the go-to-guy in Detroit. There has yet to be proof that Benjamin will be the go-to-guy game in & game out with Funchess & Ginn as possible target saps. One game is a good start though - but more games is needed to see if this is going to be a regular game plan, or if that will shift from week to week.

3 - Megatron also didnt have to compete against a 1A target in Greg Olsen.

Also - you know that least efficient season of Megatrons? 2009? Here is his stat line from that season.

14 games, 137 Targets, 67 Receptions, 984 Yards, 5 TDs

So yeah if Kelvin Benjamin has Calvin Johnsons 2009 (which coincidentally was his 3rd season - and this is Benjamins 3rd season if you include the lost 2015), he is definitely not going to be considered a WR1. He will be not even be considered a lock for WR2, but rather a WR2/WR3 border candidate.

Btw if you take that season out, his Efficiency rate improves, and really that was the only season that compares to Benjamins 2014 (from an efficiency standpoint). Maybe other WRs are even MORE efficient (like Antonio Brown) but Megatron was efficient enough, AND had the volume as well. Benjamins efficiency in 2014 was 50% (just like his efficiency in this weeks game). Benjamin will need to show that he can improve his efficiency from 50% to 55-60% to get on a career efficiency track like Megatrons.

Here is a concern tied in with inefficiency & that loss. Too much inefficiency and you are not going to GET targets. Luckily Benjamins contested catch rate is very good, so he is still going to get his looks - but what percentage will that volume decline if his efficiency with those looks remains the same while others improve? If the Panthers continue to lose games where Benjamin is the focal point of the offense, and won games last year (without Benjamin) are they really going to give him 12-14 targets a game, when more targets to other WRs are more efficient and could quite possibly improve their chances at winning?

Football is a team game - it doesnt matter how good Benjamins contested catch rate is, or how trusted he might be by Newton, if you need to win games and your able to win those games with others as the focal point. I am not saying that will happen - but it is a possibility and should be considered.

And finally a (really) long term concern. What caused Megatron to retire? Physically worn down. Not loss of speed or skill or desire to play. His body could no longer take the punishment. So that could be a long term issue (especially when you take into consideration the conditioning concern) that may cause Benjamin to have a shorter than expected career. Again not saying he WILL have a shorter career - just that if the best physical WR of the past decade got worn down and Benjamins best comparable to Megatron is that physical size/play style (even if many other aspects of his game differ) then it might not be a surprise if in 3-4 years we start getting reports of a worn down Benjamin. Hes going to need to show that he can win in ways APART from physicality and contested catch dominance.

[jaykay22]

Efficiency as it pertains to Fantasy Football is a joke!

I'll provide some stats for a player many consider to be Hall of Fame worthy.
Here are his % efficiency by year:
2007- .516
2008- .520
2009- .489
2010- .562
2011- .607
2012- .598
2013- .538
2014- .555
2015- .590

Career %- .552

Can you guess who it is????
He's a big guy like Benjamin...
Here's where I got the stats:
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/p ... hnCa00.htm

Why haven't I ever heard anyone discussing how inefficient he was?????

Can we use this argument for Davante Adams really inefficient season last year?

Well firstly, Kelvin Benjamin is not Calvin Johnson - and doesnt profile like Calvin Johnson.

Secondly, while I am not a "hater" there are other red flags that may keep Benjamin from being a Perennial WR1 - such as the fact that he does not have a lot of college production. Obviously he is not a bust like so many in the past - but it is still something that warrants consideration because his game is not as developed as many other WRs (maybe it doesnt need to be in that system). Then you add the fact that he has competition for a limited target volume, and a WR who may develop better than him, and finally conditioning concerns (ie limited snaps, increased chance at injury or missed playing time) and even without considering inefficiency there are warts to deal with.

You bring up Megatron, but a couple of things are different between Megatron & KB situation wise.

1 - Newton doesnt throw 600 PA a year. His MAX over 5 years is like 520. Whereas Staffords least over the last 5 years is 590. So the difference between Stafford least volume and Newtons best volume, which is 70 Targets(!!!), could feed a flex play WR like Ted Ginn.

2 - Megatron WAS the go-to-guy in Detroit. There has yet to be proof that Benjamin will be the go-to-guy game in & game out with Funchess & Ginn as possible target saps. One game is a good start though - but more games is needed to see if this is going to be a regular game plan, or if that will shift from week to week.

3 - Megatron also didnt have to compete against a 1A target in Greg Olsen.

Also - you know that least efficient season of Megatrons? 2009? Here is his stat line from that season.

14 games, 137 Targets, 67 Receptions, 984 Yards, 5 TDs

So yeah if Kelvin Benjamin has Calvin Johnsons 2009 (which coincidentally was his 3rd season - and this is Benjamins 3rd season if you include the lost 2015), he is definitely not going to be considered a WR1. He will be not even be considered a lock for WR2, but rather a WR2/WR3 border candidate.

Btw if you take that season out, his Efficiency rate improves, and really that was the only season that compares to Benjamins 2014 (from an efficiency standpoint). Maybe other WRs are even MORE efficient (like Antonio Brown) but Megatron was efficient enough, AND had the volume as well. Benjamins efficiency in 2014 was 50% (just like his efficiency in this weeks game). Benjamin will need to show that he can improve his efficiency from 50% to 55-60% to get on a career efficiency track like Megatrons.

Here is a concern tied in with inefficiency & that loss. Too much inefficiency and you are not going to GET targets. Luckily Benjamins contested catch rate is very good, so he is still going to get his looks - but what percentage will that volume decline if his efficiency with those looks remains the same while others improve? If the Panthers continue to lose games where Benjamin is the focal point of the offense, and won games last year (without Benjamin) are they really going to give him 12-14 targets a game, when more targets to other WRs are more efficient and could quite possibly improve their chances at winning?

Football is a team game - it doesnt matter how good Benjamins contested catch rate is, or how trusted he might be by Newton, if you need to win games and your able to win those games with others as the focal point. I am not saying that will happen - but it is a possibility and should be considered.

And finally a (really) long term concern. What caused Megatron to retire? Physically worn down. Not loss of speed or skill or desire to play. His body could no longer take the punishment. So that could be a long term issue (especially when you take into consideration the conditioning concern) that may cause Benjamin to have a shorter than expected career. Again not saying he WILL have a shorter career - just that if the best physical WR of the past decade got worn down and Benjamins best comparable to Megatron is that physical size/play style (even if many other aspects of his game differ) then it might not be a surprise if in 3-4 years we start getting reports of a worn down Benjamin. Hes going to need to show that he can win in ways APART from physicality and contested catch dominance.

I'm about as massive of a KB "fanboy" as it gets, but you made some solid counter-arguments. The only part I disagree with is the paragraph I bolded with regards to the gameplan shifting away from KB if the Panthers continue to lose games like the one on Thursday. I get the general idea you're implying, it makes sense. But I don't think it is relevant or likely in KB and the Panthers' case. They lost that game because their kicker choked upon getting iced, after their QB got rattled and thrown off his game by enough head hunting plays. Yeah, we can say "Well, if Carolina keeps losing games where KB gets double digit targets, obviously we'd expect Ron Rivera to adjust his gameplan accordingly and stop Cam from force-feeding KB". And of course football is after all a team game. But the bottom line is that Thursday night, even with poor Cam's brain being turned into scrambled eggs by the dying seconds of the 4th quarter, if Gano would have put that one through, Carolina pulls off the away victory against the reigning SB champs and what is heralded as the best D in the league. But Gano choked.

So sure, maybe Rivera will tell Cam to spread it around a bit more going forward. But KB getting force-fed Thursday night had ultimately no ill effects on the Panthers' chances of ultimately winning the football game.

[TomBobAnderson]

I'm definitely not pro KB, but c'mon. Funchess can't carry KB's jockstraps.