Mike Evans - The Dislike Is Real for this Perennial WR1 - Discussion Thread

[Cameron Giles]

Evans has the 7th most yards for a WR in his first two years. His talent is already apparent. Winston threw 9 touchdowns to wide receivers last season, a number that's virtually a lock to increase going forward. Evans had some drop issues, but there's no way he's on the short stick of touchdowns long-term. The yardage will be there and even if he has about 8 touchdowns, he's in the WR1 mix.

I don't really think he's a buy low, but I could see selling if you feel you can get a receiver who's as good and an additional asset.

[Unicorn92]

Buy low but I doubt someone will sell him low

[KU Sucks]

I haven't seen him moved in any of my leagues; the league I do have him in it, it would take somebody to "over pay" to get him out of me since Calvin retired on me.

[theone]

Similar thoughts as other people. He does not qualify as either. Buyers are expecting a discount based on last season but sellers who invested heavily with top 10 startup capital (he was the #2 overall in one of my startups last year) are not selling low.
I think we have a decent idea of what Evans is based on his work so far. A high TD upside, deep ball player with limited route running and separation skills and inconsistent hands who will be inconsistent week to week. His seasonal ceiling is probably something like ARob last year while his floor is somewhere around a DJax type season.

[nathanq42]

As an Evans owner I think this thread is bang on. I've had people come up to me with garbage offers because they want to catch him before he blows up again. And I'm not going to sell for less than what I think he will do (go out and beastify everyone)

So basically if you want to buy you have to bite the bullet, saddle up, and pay full price if not an overpay. And if you are looking to sell, don't sell short

[KU Sucks]

As an Evans owner I think this thread is bang on. I've had people come up to me with garbage offers because they want to catch him before he blows up again. And I'm not going to sell for less than what I think he will do (go out and beastify everyone)

So basically if you want to buy you have to bite the bullet, saddle up, and pay full price if not an overpay. And if you are looking to sell, don't sell short

Yep, this.

[Jason3123]

Buy low, mid or high.

[dipANDglide]

For some reason I thought his ADP dropped into the 9-12 range(9th in March. 7th in April). I thought maybe there'd have been some trades, and I wanted to get peoples opinion on buying/selling. It sounds like people aren't selling and his value is creeping back up.

I was watching some tape on him and thought he looked clunky and not smooth running routes/catching the ball. Some of that is a function of being 6'5" I guess. Do any of you feel that way about him? Has he survived on volume? Hasn't conditioning been an issue?

Thanks for the opinions. I'm trying to find some direction with him.

[nathanq42]

For some reason I thought his ADP dropped into the 9-12 range(9th in March. 7th in April). I thought maybe there'd have been some trades, and I wanted to get peoples opinion on buying/selling. It sounds like people aren't selling and his value is creeping back up.

I was watching some tape on him and thought he looked clunky and not smooth running routes/catching the ball. Some of that is a function of being 6'5" I guess. Do any of you feel that way about him? Has he survived on volume? Hasn't conditioning been an issue?

Thanks for the opinions. I'm trying to find some direction with him.

I think it is a lack of experience. The guy is 22, and has already played two years in the NFL. Insane right? So I guess he still has yet to pick up the nuances and fluidity that a guy like AB has. That goes for both route runny and catching. With that said, he can only go up really, the more experience he gets, the more time and work he puts in the better he gets. I think we have seen his basement (as in this past season is below his floor) I'd say his floor moving forward is a mix of this last season and his rookie season. Something like 70/1100/8 maybe? Also consider last year was his first year with a rookie qb. Sky is the limit baby

[djeternal2]

Unless he increases his catch % he'll be dependent on TDs to boost his production. Last yr his catch % actually went down from 55% to 50%. The only reason his #s still looked respectable is due to volume as he was the 10th highest targeted WR last yr with 148.

[Cameron Giles]

Unless he increases his catch % he'll be dependent on TDs to boost his production. Last yr his catch % actually went down from 55% to 50%. The only reason his #s still looked respectable is due to volume as he was the 10th highest targeted WR last yr with 148.

Every big-time WR is dependent on volume though. Players like Antonio, Julio and OBJ are spoon-fed targets. He can do more with the targets he's given, which is kind of the scary part. He went 74/1206 with what he got and essentially missed two games.

[djeternal2]

Unless he increases his catch % he'll be dependent on TDs to boost his production. Last yr his catch % actually went down from 55% to 50%. The only reason his #s still looked respectable is due to volume as he was the 10th highest targeted WR last yr with 148.

Every big-time WR is dependent on volume though. Players like Antonio, Julio and OBJ are spoon-fed targets. He can do more with the targets he's given, which is kind of the scary part. He went 74/1206 with what he got and essentially missed two games.

Correct they are dependent on volume which Evans is getting in spades. My point is unless the catch % increases instead of decreasing he will be dependent on High TD volume to push him into the top 10 WR which is where quite a few ppl have him. I had this same discussion with a leaguemate earlier tonight. He thought I was nuts because I'm not that high on Evans (I have him 15-20 range). At his current rate if he gets 10+TD which is something no one can count on (just ask the ARob detractors) then he gets into the top 10 WRs. If he gets 5 or fewer like his 3 last yr then he slides to the 18-22 range.

[roofy61]

i have Evans and was offered koa misi, aqib talib and the 1.09 for Evans and my 1.06!!! can't believe i didn't jump on that one!

[Cameron Giles]

Correct they are dependent on volume which Evans is getting in spades. My point is unless the catch % increases instead of decreasing he will be dependent on High TD volume to push him into the top 10 WR which is where quite a few ppl have him. I had this same discussion with a leaguemate earlier tonight. He thought I was nuts because I'm not that high on Evans (I have him 15-20 range). At his current rate if he gets 10+TD which is something no one can count on (just ask the ARob detractors) then he gets into the top 10 WRs. If he gets 5 or fewer like his 3 last yr then he slides to the 18-22 range.

Evans finished WR23 overall. He missed 1 game to start the season and played as a decoy with 0 points in the next game. If you take those two games out, Evans was WR16 from Week 3 to Week 17.

Now, if you look at Evans numbers after Tampa's bye week, from Week 7 to 17, he was WR11. He did that wthout a huge touchdown total.

The whole TD conversation is reasonable if you're looking at a player who doesn't have the talent to post big TD numbers. Ted Ginn probably isn't going to sniff 10 TD's again. But when you're looking at a player of Evans size, deep play ability and red zone dominance, you tend to think 3 touchdowns is a flukey number.

[Telperion]

He had a rookie QB, Lovie Smith, and a soft tissue injury. What more did people want from him?

He's every bit the stud everybody thought he'd be.

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