2017 Rookie Pick Values

[tstafford]

Shout out to the Dynasty Blue Print Podcast. I listened to a couple of episodes over the weekend and this topic came up. The listener asked Ryan and Matt how many 2017 rookies would likely be in the top-36 picks in a June 2017 start-up. Obviously this is a highly speculative question but it puts a very fine point on the value of rookie picks. Ryan (correctly IMO) suggested a good way to think about it would be to ask how many would be in say the top-50 or 60 so first five or so rounds of a draft.

For me, a top-60 start-up player is a good barometer. I generally try to maximize the number of picks I take in the first five rounds regardless of where they are - so I'll trade back in the 1st or 2nd to get more picks in the 3rd, 4th, 5th.

Data point: April 2016 ADP (predraft) we have three rookies in the top-36 and four in the top-60 (a good number come off right after that).
Data point: June 2015 ADP (postdraft) we had five in the top-36 and ten (I think) in the top-60.

What this makes me think is that 2017 picks are probably worth substantially more than 2016 picks but that they aren't necessarily worth a ton more than most picks in most drafts.

Curious to see what the board thinks about this topic.

[Bad News Barrett]

I joined a 32 team two copies player (so 16 team) startup Zfifelski is running

Since MFL is down, I'm not 100% sure, but I trade down from my mid first for an extra 2 and 3, scooped another 4, and I think I have 6 picks in the top 120 (so top 60)

Tough to lose the stud, but hoping the depth will help out especially in such a deep league

[DynoScout]

Having been involved in negotiations where a 2016 1st couldn't buy a 2017 1st projected in the same range, I would say that Tim is onto something in saying 2017 picks are worth substantially more than 2016 picks (on the trade market).

Whether 2017 1sts are relatively flat compared to 1sts in other seasons is an interesting question, though. I hadn't thought about it, but it certainly feels like 2017 1sts are on a trajectory to eventually have a higher market value than 2015 or 2014 1sts.

[Cameron Giles]

Really too early to say because it depends on a lot of things, and not just what happens in college. A lot of premature egg-counting with this class. Group think has really powered the value of those picks.

I do agree that a Top 50-60 is a good barometer though

[smbkrypt24]

For the past 3 years i will trade for rookie picks during the year and then trade them away near rookie draft time. This is the first year I will be drafting in the rookie draft because no one will trade into this years draft which i think speaks to the perception that this is a weak draft class and also the perception that next years is supposedly so good. One trader even stated that they aren't interested in this years draft picks for next years because of how good next years draft class is.

[Farley]

Really too early to say because it depends on a lot of things, and not just what happens in college. A lot of premature egg-counting with this class. Group think has really powered the value of those picks.

I do agree that a Top 50-60 is a good barometer though

Completely agree with this. It's gotten a little out of hand, in my opinion. There might be a lot of owners who are disappointed they sold the farm for these 2017s.

[clarion contrarion]

Really too early to say because it depends on a lot of things, and not just what happens in college. A lot of premature egg-counting with this class. Group think has really powered the value of those picks.

I do agree that a Top 50-60 is a good barometer though

Completely agree with this. It's gotten a little out of hand, in my opinion. There might be a lot of owners who are disappointed they sold the farm for these 2017s.

I will disagree , I think think the owners who trade away a 17 1st this year to get in and pick corey coleman or kenneth dixon or nearly any of these post elliott picks will positively puke when their pick comes up next year and they see they have coleman or dixon and could have had nick chubb or dalvin cook.

[Cameron Giles]

I will disagree , I think think the owners who trade away a 17 1st this year to get in and pick corey coleman or kenneth dixon or nearly any of these post elliott picks will positively puke when their pick comes up next year and they see they have coleman or dixon and could have had nick chubb or dalvin cook.

Sure, but Cook looks like he'll be one of the top 2 or 3 picks in next year's class. Chubb, who knows. He tore his PCL and that injury is not as easy to come back from as an ACL or MCL would be. So, you'd have to be a pretty bad team to regret trading a pick like that. Personally, I wouldn't mind trading a 2017 1st for Coleman. He is a freak show athlete with elite college production and I can see his stock being huge by the end of the season.

Either way, it's reall tough projecting the value of those picks a year from now. A ton can happen on both ends.I have about 4-5 players in mind who I think should have at least Top 60 ADP this time next year.

[Kcarr]

Really too early to say because it depends on a lot of things, and not just what happens in college. A lot of premature egg-counting with this class. Group think has really powered the value of those picks.

I do agree that a Top 50-60 is a good barometer though

Completely agree with this. It's gotten a little out of hand, in my opinion. There might be a lot of owners who are disappointed they sold the farm for these 2017s.

I will disagree , I think think the owners who trade away a 17 1st this year to get in and pick corey coleman or kenneth dixon or nearly any of these post elliott picks will positively puke when their pick comes up next year and they see they have coleman or dixon and could have had nick chubb or dalvin cook.

This seems to be assuming all those who give up a future 1st for Dixon or coleman will then see it turn into a top 3 or 4 pick next year. Either that or it is assuming chubb will drop a lot due to injury in which case why would someone be so upset about missing out on him.

[Bad News Barrett]

Really too early to say because it depends on a lot of things, and not just what happens in college. A lot of premature egg-counting with this class. Group think has really powered the value of those picks.

I do agree that a Top 50-60 is a good barometer though

Completely agree with this. It's gotten a little out of hand, in my opinion. There might be a lot of owners who are disappointed they sold the farm for these 2017s.

I will disagree , I think think the owners who trade away a 17 1st this year to get in and pick corey coleman or kenneth dixon or nearly any of these post elliott picks will positively puke when their pick comes up next year and they see they have coleman or dixon and could have had nick chubb or dalvin cook.

I agree the 2017 class looks really good

What if Coleman becomes a stud and you could have trade what became a 1.11 2017 pick for him? Clarion, I usually agree with you, but saying you wouldn't trade a random 2017 1st to get Elliott is nuts, unless your team in absolutely in shambles and is guaranteed 1.01 in 2017

[clarion contrarion]

hey bad news I said the picks post elliott !
and I will contend that the player available at 1:11 next year could be as good a prospect or better than the bulk of guys mentioned between 2nd and 7th or 8th this year. I mentioned chubb and cook
but I could have said mike williams perine corey davis deshaun watson as well as a few other guys like JUJU (although I am not a fan many people love him ) dupre and dural, conner ,hood
there are about 15 guys that could be top ten picks in this draft that stayed in school or are not eligible yet. I listed a bunch but omitted many as well and that is the point many guys in this class have been forced up that really were not on the radar last year and that could happen again further deepening next years talent pool.

cameron I think mentioned chubb's recovery status being uncertain and I cannot argue that but if he is down there is a good chance sony michel's stock rockets up as he is a bigger reggie bush type not as greasy but equally explosive and versatile.

[Cameron Giles]

hey bad news I said the picks post elliott !
and I will contend that the player available at 1:11 next year could be as good a prospect or better than the bulk of guys mentioned between 2nd and 7th or 8th this year. I mentioned chubb and cook
but I could have said mike williams perine corey davis deshaun watson as well as a few other guys like JUJU (although I am not a fan many people love him ) dupre and dural, conner ,hood
there are about 15 guys that could be top ten picks in this draft that stayed in school or are not eligible yet. I listed a bunch but omitted many as well and that is the point many guys in this class have been forced up that really were not on the radar last year and that could happen again further deepening next years talent pool.

cameron I think mentioned chubb's recovery status being uncertain and I cannot argue that but if he is down there is a good chance sony michel's stock rockets up as he is a bigger reggie bush type not as greasy but equally explosive and versatile.

You brought that up in another thread, but I still think you're grossly overrating next year's pool. A 2017 late first is not going to be equal to a high 2016 1st. Corey Davis for instance was projected for 2016 but wouldn't be more than a mid first right now. Dural would be a second rounder. Dupre has done squat. The values won't be that far apart.

[ArrylT]

Since the question was how many 2017 rookies will crack the top 60 - comparing them to 2016 rookies isnt really the only equation to be concerned with, especially since the 2016 rookies have yet to be drafted, much less step on the field. What I am curious to know is how many, and which, 2014-15 players will have to be pushed down to make room for 2017 picks. Players from older drafts (like Jordy Nelson, Brandon Marshall, Jeremy Maclin) will already get pushed down, since it happens year after year, but considering the volume & talent of the past 2 classes, and with several talents yet to see their heights ... that I think will be the crux of the matter ... which 2014-15 players you are sold on right now and will only be 23-24-25 you are going to value less than the 2017 class.

It doesnt really matter if a 2017 1.10 is worth the same as a 2016 1.04 if neither of them on its own is going to get you near to buying a Devante Parker or Cooks etc ... much less an Allen Robinson or Amari Cooper.

[TomBobAnderson]

If you combine both classes I would take Fournette, Juju, Cook, Mike Williams, and Chubb (if he comes back healthy) over any of the 2016 guys. So an early 2016 pick is worth a mid 2017 pick for me. Before anyone says "Well some of them will bust" of course there are going to be busts in the 2017 class just like there will be in every class. & obviously there WILL be studs in the 2016 class, but I'm way more comfortable in gambling on the 2017 class than the 2016. Think about it, the stud that SHOULD have won the Heisman this year isn't even being mentioned yet.

Even if you believe that 2017 is overrated, the smart thing to do is to hold your pick and trade it next year. If Treadwell struggles his rookie year for example, I'm sure you'll be able to acquire him for the 1.08 or something next year when you're on the clock.

[clarion contrarion]

hey bad news I said the picks post elliott !
and I will contend that the player available at 1:11 next year could be as good a prospect or better than the bulk of guys mentioned between 2nd and 7th or 8th this year. I mentioned chubb and cook
but I could have said mike williams perine corey davis deshaun watson as well as a few other guys like JUJU (although I am not a fan many people love him ) dupre and dural, conner ,hood
there are about 15 guys that could be top ten picks in this draft that stayed in school or are not eligible yet. I listed a bunch but omitted many as well and that is the point many guys in this class have been forced up that really were not on the radar last year and that could happen again further deepening next years talent pool.

cameron I think mentioned chubb's recovery status being uncertain and I cannot argue that but if he is down there is a good chance sony michel's stock rockets up as he is a bigger reggie bush type not as greasy but equally explosive and versatile.

You brought that up in another thread, but I still think you're grossly overrating next year's pool. A 2017 late first is not going to be equal to a high 2016 1st. Corey Davis for instance was projected for 2016 but wouldn't be more than a mid first right now. Dural would be a second rounder. Dupre has done squat. The values won't be that far apart.

both dupre and dural had a higher market share than coleman in each's respective soph. seasons . If they had a decent qb the sky is the limit for both we will have to disagree . Perhaps our standards are just different in that every one of my teams are in the hunt so some prospects just are not on my radar . I will allow for a manager that is rebuilding that my idea or perception is perhaps skewed . I have seen shepherd and carroo mentioned on this site as top half of 1st round guys and if that is true then corey davis is easily their equal if not a better / safer bet. He is the perfect case , he is at worst a mid 1st today but could easily be a late 1st or early 2nd next year based on how many of the big conference kids shine and declare. You helped me make my point so Thanks.