Introduction

[clarion contrarion]

Tell me the difference between lucky and good and I'll have my wife's brother arrested.

Do you evaluate trades on facts or opinion?

You don't have to answer because clearly you're an opinion guy. Me, I prefer to base my trade evaluations on facts. And facts will not be facts until future events become past events. Until that happens, I will reserve my fact based evaluation and dismiss your opinion as speculation.

is your wife's brother who you traded with ?
if so he tradomized you w/o mercy ! should make the holidays special

[kadun2]

Loh comin' in wit a Bang!
I see you Loh!

Welcome!

[GridironGuerilla]

Now, I'm no economics major but I believe that if I spend $5 on a commodity that the market dictates is worth $1, I overpaid no matter how that item appreciates or depreciates in value over time. The market has placed a value on the players involved in your trade. Now, no matter what the outcome is in the future when "fact becomes fact" and "future events become past events", or how your commodities appreciate or depreciate over time, you overpaid for them based on their market value. You could have gotten more commodities from the deal. I would call that a fact. When all this smoke clears, I'm glad your around because it's gonna make for some entertainment!

[Jason3123]

Tell me the difference between lucky and good and I'll have my wife's brother arrested.

Do you evaluate trades on facts or opinion?

You don't have to answer because clearly you're an opinion guy. Me, I prefer to base my trade evaluations on facts. And facts will not be facts until future events become past events. Until that happens, I will reserve my fact based evaluation and dismiss your opinion as speculation.

I can factually state you gave up 2 top 24 2015 PPR WR's, 1 of them a 2nd year top 10 NFL draft pick, both of whom topped 1,000 yards receiving, for a rookie RB who was drafted in the 4th round with less than 600 yards rushing and zero guarantee to be the starter for week 1, and a WR who hasn't played since 2014 and averaged just 60 yards per game over those 5 games played, and even worse 36 yards per game over his last 3 games of that season.

So factually, yes this is an awful trade on stats and value, and common sense. And in my opinion, you got taken to the cleaners and will be having regrets by 10:37 left in week 1 games when Evans and DT are scoring touchdowns and Josh Gordon may or may not be uniform and Langford may or may not be on the field. Good luck with your opinions. And your facts.

[Goirish374]

if I spend $5 on a commodity that the market dictates is worth $1, I overpaid no matter how that item appreciates or depreciates in value over time. The market has placed a value on the players involved in your trade.

sooooooo, just for the sake of discussion...

isn't your own value equally relevant?

if the market values a commodity at $1 but you "recognize" its "real" value as $1000...aren't you willing to overpay by the market value bc you know in X amount of time you will be sitting on what was dirt cheap netflix stock?

isn't there quite a bit to be said for the ability to recognize when the market's value is off and to capitalize on that?

[FiremanEd]

Absolutely. That's the name of the game. However, you don't buy at or above your expected future value...that removes your profit margin and increases your risk exponentially.

[Goirish374]

Absolutely. That's the name of the game. However, you don't buy at or above your expected future value...that removes your profit margin and increases your risk exponentially.

agree completely--i was assuming an expected future value greater than purchase value in the eyes of the purchaser.

[Telperion]

Btw don't think that because everybody disagrees with you you're not welcome, all opinions are welcome even if everybody thinks you're wrong.

The main point is that you overpaid now, so even if you break even in the future, you gave up value now. You bought $1 with $5 with the hope that the $1 eventually reaches $5. In many leagues Evans alone might buy you Gurley.

[Jason3123]

Ok, you all are talking crazy talk! Let's keep it simple......

Buy CMG @350, Sell @450 = Good Trade
Buy CMG @450, Sell @750 = Good Trade
Buy CMG @750, Sell @460 = Bad Trade

It's that simple, folks. Some of you haters are starting to hedge your critique with the idea that even if I'm right, then it was luck not vision.
Others, not so much, and I appreciate those types of posters. You'll be the first to get a stone to chuck at my head if I'm wrong.

Those of you in the luck camp don't get any stones to throw if I'm wrong. Anyone can call someone out then make an excuse when their call out is proven wrong.

By your own admission you've made an awful trade. Unless someone gave you Mike Evans and DT for free...even then you were handed $1,000 and gave it away for $100.

If you don't want stones thrown at you, maybe make better trades? Or don't post them on here and then disagree with the unanimous feedback.

[Telperion]

The point everybody is making is that at best you break even, but the odds of breaking even are really low. Even at 75% odds (I'd put it closer to 15% personally), if you continually bleed value with every trade, your roster will eventually hemorrhage out because of too many lopsided deals that never pay out.

If you can't get a fair price or at worst a slight over pay, you pass on the deal and try working a different trade.

[clarion contrarion]

If you don't want stones thrown at you, maybe make better trades? Or don't post them on here and then disagree with the unanimous feedback.

What are you even talking about?
Throw your stones, brosef. All I am saying is don't duck behind "Well, you got lucky" when Langford is a star and i chuck a bolder at your face a year from now with my celebratory posts!

the point I think most people are making is langford has to become a star and gordon must revert to 2013 form OR - DT and evans have to flame out just for you to break even . If both happen then you can dance and say see you guys suck and I am a genius , if either happen at least you won't have to take a write down on your acquired assets .
IF neither of your acquired assets become stars and neither of DT or eveans flame out you took a bath of manhattan for shiny baubles proportions.

[Telperion]

The point everybody is making is that at best you break even, but the odds of breaking even are really low.

How do you figure?
If Langford/Gordon out score Evan/TD I do more than break even.

That's extremely unlikely.

[Bad News Barrett]

I have a feeling this thread is being stored by many DLFers and this won't be the last time we see this post

[Telperion]

The consensus is that you have a 5-15% chance of Langford and Gordon outscoring Evans and Thomas, which is required for you to break even.

Based on ADP, you lost now, because you could have gotten more from another owner in your league. Based on projected future scoring, you have an 85% chance of losing this trade. Even if the 15% chance comes true, you still made the wrong decision now, and got lucky that your 15% odds panned out.

It's still a bad decision because if you make 99 more trades like this in the future, eventually the odds will catch up to you and you'll lose 85 of the next 99 similar deals.

[Telperion]

That's extremely unlikely.

Yes, I agree.

Do unlikely events never happen?

If you continually go all in on unlikely, you'll hit occasionally, but very likely will kick your roster's butt far more often.