Isn't it a little early to write off the 2016 class?

[Scorpio78]

Ok...so there seems to be a general consensus that the 2017 draft is going to be more talented than the 2016 draft (to the degree that we've seen folks selling top five picks in 2016 for an unknown next year), but do we really know that 2017 is vastly superior to 2016? We haven't even had the combine yet...let alone the NFL draft. If past is prologue, there is a good chance that players that aren't on anyone's radar right now will be coveted assets after the combine and draft roll around. Long story short: there is talent to be had in every draft. Why are so many quick to dismiss this draft...it seems it's Zeke and Treadwell...and then nothing else...but I'd bet the farm that won't be the case come May.

[FiremanEd]

Every class has hits, but there is no question not all classes are equal. I look down the list and while there are guys with ability, it thins more quickly than many other years. 2014 was known for deep WRs. Last year was known to have deep RBs. Both were true. This year I see plenty of ho hum after the first few, of which I have my own concerns about. I will be happy to gain any increase value in moving my 2016 for 2017 picks, where things look to be both more talented and deep, increasing my odds of someone who will help my team.

[Phaded]

I feel like it is a similar story every year.

My memory isn't the greatest - but I don't really recall many people boasting White or Parker.. it seemed to mostly be about Cooper & Gurley.

Guys like Agholor & Perriman were hardly talked about if at all until at least the combine.

Then again, my memory could be that bad.

[Scorpio78]

I feel like it is a similar story every year.

My memory isn't the greatest - but I don't really recall many people boasting White or Parker.. it seemed to mostly be about Cooper & Gurley.

Guys like Agholor & Perriman were hardly talked about if at all until at least the combine.

Then again, my memory could be that bad.

There were a few people touting White around this time last year...it wasn't until the combine though that things came into focus. The year before that, guys like OBJ and Arob were way down the list at this time...and KaDeem Carey and Lache (remember him) Seastrunk were the coveted prospects...that turned out to be a pretty good draft right? But not for the two I just mentioned. There were a few people promoting ARob at this point in 2014, but not many took notice until his pro day workout. The same thing is going to happen this year. It happens every year. I'm just going to go out on a limb and say that this draft is more talented 1-10 than many people are currently giving it credit for.

So...long story short...I don't think your memory is that bad at all.

[Cameron Giles]

People are just following a narrative.

2017 has 3-4 potentially dynamic RB's that could be at the top of the class (Fournette, Cook, Chubb, Perine) being at their lowest possible values if they turn out to be game changers. That's huge given that people hate buying RB's. Aside from that, the class really isn't as loaded as people think, though a lot can change. I don't see the same WR potential...yet. If you're into Superflex, obviously Deshaun Watson is going to be a coveted prize.

The 2016 class looked weak coming into the season and got a lot better after Coleman, Doctson and some others exploded. I agree, writing it off right now would be a huge mistake. There's always going to be hits in each class, it's just a matter of finding them. But some owners lose interest if the best talent isn't clear as day.

[John Paul]

Yes, take advantage of groupthink every chance you get.

[AZK]

I acquired multiple late firsts in various leagues when people were selling low. I'll wait to watch tape, the combine, and the draft before making a final decision as to where the rest of this class is.

[BuckeyeNation]

I feel like it is a similar story every year.

My memory isn't the greatest - but I don't really recall many people boasting White or Parker.. it seemed to mostly be about Cooper & Gurley.

Guys like Agholor & Perriman were hardly talked about if at all until at least the combine.

Then again, my memory could be that bad.

To a certain extent it does happen every year. When a class only has a couple of standout prospects this early in the process and the class lacks "cant miss prospects", the general consensus is that the entire class is weak.

Comparing this class to classes in recent history, this feels like the same narrative we went through with the 2013 class. Usually people always talk about how great next year's class is, but the consensus of the 2013 class was that it was pretty weak, even in 2012. The funny thing is that the 2013 class gave us the top dynasty RB in Bell (at least by many) and a top 5 dynasty WR in Hopkins, and neither were in the 1.01 discussion for most at the time. During the early off-season before the '13 draft, many ranking sheets had Bell as a mid-late 2nd round rookie pick and has Hopkins as low as the 5th WR in the class.

To me that says let's reserve judgement on the class until the process plays out. Every class has hits and misses and even though I usually don't like to buy picks this time of year; If people are selling picks cheap due to the perception of the class (especially top 8-10 picks) then I'll look to buy.

[themburns]

It is as well as isn't too early to write off this class. There are a few things I use to grade classes as a group, and one of them is the number of prospects declaring early. Presumably talents with high grades would have more than likely left last year if they had the opportunity. As of right now, 65 underclassmen have declared for the 2016 draft. (number could fluctuate between now and next week.) In the 2015 draft there were 84, and 2014 set the record with 98 players declaring early. That tells me the talent is not on par with the last few classes. At least in terms of depth.

My second point would be that there is a glut of WRs right now in the dynasty ranks. That is also what this class seems best at, Elliott aside. The OP and I are in a league together, and I offered my 1.4 for his Tyler Eifert. He responded that it would not help his team obtain a talented young running back so there was no reason to do that deal. I feel similarly about the strength of that position in this class. Henry will probably climb boards after a good combine, but I simply won't take a back with that excessive of a workload. (Most in FBS since 2007 and Kevin Smith.)

Finally, the perceived value is what it is at this point. There will be windows to buy these players due to that perceived value and while players you like might spike in value, what would it take for a receiver in this class in year 1 to make the top 18 of a startup next off season? A record shattering rookie season? Feels like we have one of those every year. They will be behind players who have more consistent production as well as a young age. Then, owners can re-evaulate and work on offers with more information. I do think the top 6-8 picks are holds at the moment. Outside of that, I'll take my chances on a class to meet requirements for bulk prospects and profit margin.

[IWWROCKS]

I think with every draft class, the closer you get to your draft the deeper the pool is. Some of this is affected by landing spots in the NFL draft, some of it by hype (naturally agents/PR firms are going to be hyping their players before the draft...everyone becomes the next big thing) and also by non-college watchers seeing players for the first time in events like the combine or even just seeing highlights for the first time. Post-NFL draft, I think we'll be talking a lot more about the wide receivers, maybe not so much the running backs.

I think with all skill positions, the reaction changes post-draft. Instantly fans of the team that drafted WR X or RB Y will be looking at them as a game changer for their offense. Will 2017 be even more hyped than 2016 at that stage? probably...but I think there will be more activity trying to acquire picks after the NFL Draft.

[DynoScout]

Way too early to write it off. There will be good players from this class. I am not as high on the players emerging as the consensus second tier, so if that holds true and I'm sitting in that range on draft day I'll likely trade back and target the players I believe in.

To be fair I think 2017 has the potential to be better, but it doesn't mean I'm selling short to sit this class out.
Just like every other asset in dynasty; zig when others zag and you'll likely turn a profit.

[Pac_Eddy]

I think some dynasty owners are trying real hard to gain a little edge over others by over analyzing classes.

As others have said, every class has its hits & misses. It's possible 2016 may have less talent but lands in more productive situations. Or it could be the reverse of that. If you really like 2017 class more & trade your firsts to get more in that class, fine, but you still may land on a bust. I remember some calling the 2008 draft class really week. Some guys from that one: Forte, Mendenhall, CJ2K, Jonathan Stewart, Jordy, Eddie Royal, Desean Jackson, Ray Rice, Jamaal Charles.

I just carry on like I always do & let others worry about which class is better.

[yooperbacker]

This class isn't terrible. There are some very good prospects at the top, some elite Idp prospects, but it does lack depth. Unlike other years, the 1st round won't guarantee you a can't miss prospect. Guys like shephard and Cooper will need to land in good situations to gain significant value. The rbs are underwhelming outside of Zeke. As others have said, there is value in every draft, it's just going to be harder to id this year. That being said, I don't think there is any doubt that the 17 class will be stronger unless every senior gets hurt and every junior returns to school. Mike Williams and Corey Davis would have been high 1st round dynasty picks had they declared. Add in Juju and all the running back talent, and I don't think the comparison between 16 and 17 is all that close. I'm not giving my 16 picks away, but I'm actively shopping them.

[Detroitcity]

I've said it before on here, but the 2016 class reminds me a bit of the 2013 class. Prior to the 2013 draft, everyone was talking about how the 2013 class was "much weaker" than the 2012 class and people were looking ahead to 2014 where Watkins and Lee were set to headline a deep group. Obviously the 2014 class ended up being REALLY solid, but the 2013 class wasn't as bad as advertised and it was arguably on par with the 2012 class

The 2012 class wasn't as good as advertised (or at least not the 1st round rookie pick talent) but it ended up being solid.. but so did the 2013 class

2012: Martin, Luck, Jeffrey, Floyd, Wright, L. Miller, R. Wilson, A Morris, R. Tannehill, J. Gordon (if you include supp draft)
big time misses: Trich, Blackmon, RG3, D Wilson, Pead, S. Hill

2013: L. Bell, Lacy, Hopkins, Gio, Eifert, K. Allen, Kelce, Ertz, Ellington
big time misses: C Patterson, M Ball, Dobson, Woods, Lattimore, Wheaton, J Franklin

For the 2016 class I think landings spots are going to be really big. I also think there will be some big hits, but also some big misses. Guys like Doctson and Henry could be top 10, or complete busts. I will say that the 2016 class does appear to lack depth. The past 2 years I have been really excited about my 2nd and 3rd round picks.. but this year its hard to see that right now

[jeffster]

I like to remember that at this time in 2014 lots of mocks had Kadeem Carey and Marquise Lee as top-3 rookie picks.

Anyway, I just had this conversation with a friend yesterday. I feel like this weak 2016 class narrative is just being recycled over and over based on little substance, and while I'm not much of a scout myself, I'm suspicious.