Josh Gordon

[49ersFaithful80]

He's doing outstanding! (according to his agent)

He was massively overvalued previously because people completely disregarded the huge character concerns but I feel like people will be more realistic about it this time around.

I have a feeling he's going to get reinstated, have a couple monster games, and then fail another drug test and break every owners heart.

[Csl312]

He said all the same things the last time he was suspended. Also I seem to remember a recent article about him looking forward to hanging out with Manziel, Kaep, and OBJ again soon. Not that the latter two have gotten into too much trouble but it is not exactly the most stable group he could be seeking out...

[Jfever]

Sold him about a month ago for a late 2016 1st in a 10 team league. The pick will be in the 8-10 range. I am deep in talent at wr and was ok with the return. All risk management imo.

The talent is there. For Gordon's sake, I hope he returns and stays in league. I'm just more of a realist on this one and kind of expect him to have a difficult time staying out of trouble even after (if) he gets back. Kind of pessimistic, sure, but, he's certainly earned that rep. If he comes back and lights it up and stays out of trouble - it'll suck, but, I like my odds of adding good talent with the a pick in that range.

The WW thing blows my mind.

[nwhalen]

I'm buying everywhere I can. The reward(top 2 overall season at age 22) far outweighs the risk(never plays again) IMO. Months ago I wrote a piece as he's the ultimate buy low, while others had Jalean Strong and Torrey Smith valued over him. I don't get it, as those players will never have any season close to the 1 Josh Gordon had and will likely be bench fodder anyway.

[49ersFaithful80]

I'm buying everywhere I can. The reward(top 2 overall season at age 22) far outweighs the risk(never plays again) IMO. Months ago I wrote a piece as he's the ultimate buy low, while others had Jalean Strong and Torrey Smith valued over him. I don't get it, as those players will never have any season close to the 1 Josh Gordon had and will likely be bench fodder anyway.

But despite the fact that there is a solid chance Gordon never plays again you would still have to give up a 1st round pick for him which is way too much IMO. I would roll the dice if I could get him for a mid-to-late 2nd rounder. And even if he comes back, stays clean initially, and tears it up he is still one single mess up away from another 1+ year/indefinite ban if he ever gets comfortable and smokes a joint one time in the remainder of his career. Way too much risk to give up a 1st rounder IMO.

[Cameron Giles]

I'm buying everywhere I can. The reward(top 2 overall season at age 22) far outweighs the risk(never plays again) IMO. Months ago I wrote a piece as he's the ultimate buy low, while others had Jalean Strong and Torrey Smith valued over him. I don't get it, as those players will never have any season close to the 1 Josh Gordon had and will likely be bench fodder anyway.

If Gordon is reinstated for 2016, that season will have been three years ago. I think Gordon still possesses talent, but at what point do we consider that 2013 will end up being the unparalleled peak of value? It seems some are convinced he'll just get back to it, or somewhere around it with no issue.

I just don't see that as likely. It feels like people are chasing a carrot that doesn't exist anymore. Gordon seems more likely to trend towards WR2 territory, if that. And with the risk involved, I feel like there's so many more players you can get with no baggage.

[nwhalen]

I'm buying everywhere I can. The reward(top 2 overall season at age 22) far outweighs the risk(never plays again) IMO. Months ago I wrote a piece as he's the ultimate buy low, while others had Jalean Strong and Torrey Smith valued over him. I don't get it, as those players will never have any season close to the 1 Josh Gordon had and will likely be bench fodder anyway.

But despite the fact that there is a solid chance Gordon never plays again you would still have to give up a 1st round pick for him which is way too much IMO. I would roll the dice if I could get him for a mid-to-late 2nd rounder. And even if he comes back, stays clean initially, and tears it up he is still one single mess up away from another 1+ year/indefinite ban if he ever gets comfortable and smokes a joint one time in the remainder of his career. Way too much risk to give up a 1st rounder IMO.

"Solid chance he never plays again" we don't know. Not I, nor you. But we do know that many people have come back from bad problems, see Josh Hamilton in baseball, Michael Vick/AP/Greg Hardy in football. If you have the talent you will be sought after.

I never listed a price. But i'd pay a late 1st right now for Gordon. Would you rather have Breshad Perriman/Nelson Agholor over Gordon?

The risk is different with Gordon and it scares people off. With Perriman/Agholor, we don't know if they are any good in the NFL or even FF startable. We do know Gordon can play and be a very good FF startable player. You could draft a player in the late 1st and they could bust.

Gordon can win FF championships, can Agholor/Perriman/Strong/Torrey Smith?

[Bot101]

I am all in on Gordon returning. Usually I am one of the safest guys when it comes to who I draft/roster. However with Gordon... I literally paid nothing because he was on the waiver wire in my league

So the risk of him not returning is literally nil for me since I have so little invested.

[nwhalen]

I'm buying everywhere I can. The reward(top 2 overall season at age 22) far outweighs the risk(never plays again) IMO. Months ago I wrote a piece as he's the ultimate buy low, while others had Jalean Strong and Torrey Smith valued over him. I don't get it, as those players will never have any season close to the 1 Josh Gordon had and will likely be bench fodder anyway.

If Gordon is reinstated for 2016, that season will have been three years ago. I think Gordon still possesses talent, but at what point do we consider that 2013 will end up being the unparalleled peak of value? It seems some are convinced he'll just get back to it, or somewhere around it with no issue.

I just don't see that as likely. It feels like people are chasing a carrot that doesn't exist anymore. Gordon seems more likely to trend towards WR2 territory, if that. And with the risk involved, I feel like there's so many more players you can get with no baggage.

I think it's safe to say WR's don't peak at age 22. So even if he regresses statistically, he should improve physically/technique/knowledge wise in regards to his play. I'm not saying he will be a top 2 player at the position, but he does have that ability. I would say he's a FF WR2 at worst if he plays.

Who else can you obtain that has or could be a WR1 for a late 1st?
(all stats are PPR in PPG for 2015)
Amari Cooper WR27, ADP 7
Donte Moncrief WR40, ADP 25
Mike Evans WR28, ADP 10
Josh Gordon DNP, ADP 70

The "carrot" is obtaining a WR1 talent at the age of 24 for pennies on the dollar. While many are hoping DGB/Moncrief/Cooper/Agholor/Perriman/Diggs/Parker/Adams(all players ahead of Gordon) develop into good FF WRs, we only have to hope Gordon stays clean. Both sides are a risk and i'd rather take the cheaper/proven asset.

[snitchinsider]

All I know is, he was suspended, he came back, he passed 70+ drug tests allegedly with flying colors. And then, when they were on their flight back from their final game of the season, he got busted for having a drink on the plane like everyone else, because it was against his terms to drink during the season.

The above sounds to me like someone who very clearly was trying to operate within the rules given to him, and was busted for a pretty lame scenario, a scenario that acted as a technicality and wasn't even in the spirit of their terms.

[Cameron Giles]

I'm buying everywhere I can. The reward(top 2 overall season at age 22) far outweighs the risk(never plays again) IMO. Months ago I wrote a piece as he's the ultimate buy low, while others had Jalean Strong and Torrey Smith valued over him. I don't get it, as those players will never have any season close to the 1 Josh Gordon had and will likely be bench fodder anyway.

If Gordon is reinstated for 2016, that season will have been three years ago. I think Gordon still possesses talent, but at what point do we consider that 2013 will end up being the unparalleled peak of value? It seems some are convinced he'll just get back to it, or somewhere around it with no issue.

I just don't see that as likely. It feels like people are chasing a carrot that doesn't exist anymore. Gordon seems more likely to trend towards WR2 territory, if that. And with the risk involved, I feel like there's so many more players you can get with no baggage.

I think it's safe to say WR's don't peak at age 22. So even if he regresses statistically, he should improve physically/technique/knowledge wise in regards to his play. I'm not saying he will be a top 2 player at the position, but he does have that ability. I would say he's a FF WR2 at worst if he plays.

Who else can you obtain that has or could be a WR1 for a late 1st?
(all stats are PPR in PPG for 2015)
Amari Cooper WR27, ADP 7
Donte Moncrief WR40, ADP 25
Mike Evans WR28, ADP 10
Josh Gordon DNP, ADP 70

The "carrot" is obtaining a WR1 talent at the age of 24 for pennies on the dollar. While many are hoping DGB/Moncrief/Cooper/Agholor/Perriman/Diggs/Parker/Adams(all players ahead of Gordon) develop into good FF WRs, we only have to hope Gordon stays clean. Both sides are a risk and i'd rather take the cheaper/proven asset.

Normally, I don't think a 22 year old WR peaks, but when you miss so much time, that's a huge factor. Add the new crop of receivers that's blossomed since then and there's not a favorable chance Gordon is a WR1 when he returns.

Gordon is much riskier than most of the players you named. You have to hope he stays clean but that's a big leap of faith given the history. Is he also going to average 11+ targets a game and over 100+ yards? He only averaged 60 in 5 games last season. Will his timing rebound quick enough? There's much more variables involved.

[BlueDemons33]

I just don't think this is really an argument worth having. Either you're risk averse and not willing to pay what's most likely being asked for him or you will take the high upside/high risk.

What it really comes down to is how much are you willing to give up and how much is the seller willing to take for Gordon. If you see more upside in Gordon than a late-1st (think along the lines of an Agholor, Perriman, etc.), then you make that trade. If you can get him for an early-2nd (i.e. Dorsett, Funchess, Abdullah, or whoever was taken in those spots in your draft), then is he worth the risk?

I think we sometimes value some draft picks too highly when we could possibly get a tangible usable player who is still young. So, I look at it as, would I have rather had "this" caliber of player (replace the pick with something tangible) or Josh Gordon. It's as simple as that.

[nwhalen]

If Gordon is reinstated for 2016, that season will have been three years ago. I think Gordon still possesses talent, but at what point do we consider that 2013 will end up being the unparalleled peak of value? It seems some are convinced he'll just get back to it, or somewhere around it with no issue.

I just don't see that as likely. It feels like people are chasing a carrot that doesn't exist anymore. Gordon seems more likely to trend towards WR2 territory, if that. And with the risk involved, I feel like there's so many more players you can get with no baggage.

I think it's safe to say WR's don't peak at age 22. So even if he regresses statistically, he should improve physically/technique/knowledge wise in regards to his play. I'm not saying he will be a top 2 player at the position, but he does have that ability. I would say he's a FF WR2 at worst if he plays.

Who else can you obtain that has or could be a WR1 for a late 1st?
(all stats are PPR in PPG for 2015)
Amari Cooper WR27, ADP 7
Donte Moncrief WR40, ADP 25
Mike Evans WR28, ADP 10
Josh Gordon DNP, ADP 70

The "carrot" is obtaining a WR1 talent at the age of 24 for pennies on the dollar. While many are hoping DGB/Moncrief/Cooper/Agholor/Perriman/Diggs/Parker/Adams(all players ahead of Gordon) develop into good FF WRs, we only have to hope Gordon stays clean. Both sides are a risk and i'd rather take the cheaper/proven asset.

Normally, I don't think a 22 year old WR peaks, but when you miss so much time, that's a huge factor. Add the new crop of receivers that's blossomed since then and there's not a favorable chance Gordon is a WR1 when he returns.

Gordon is much riskier than most of the players you named. You have to hope he stays clean but that's a big leap of faith given the history. Is he also going to average 11+ targets a game and over 100+ yards? He only averaged 60 in 5 games last season. Will his timing rebound quick enough? There's much more variables involved.

The two bolded are correlated IMO. He missed 10 games, training camp, OTA's and was fighting to get reinstated. When the suspension is over he's supposed to bounce right back into a WR1 with junk at QB? Even AP this year needed some time to shake off the rust, get rapport w/teammates, etc.

How quick does he need to rebound? I would guess if everything is perfect, he's not a WR1 in 2016. But 2017, he sure has a shot.

"Add the new crop of receivers that's blossomed since then and there's not a favorable chance Gordon is a WR1 when he returns."
-Wouldn't Perriman/Agholor/Dorsett/Diggs/Parker all have the same obstacle? Actually it's worse for them, they're not proven at the NFL level.

Agree w/another poster that it's how you consider risk. IMO i'll take the guy that has the size, athletic ability, football skills, and stats vs the guys that are worse in every area but haven't been suspended.


To look at it another way, lets say OBJ got busted for drugs last offseason and missed 2015. Busted again in 2016 and didn't play. Would you not pay a late 1st for him for 2017 and beyond?

[ericanadian]

I keep hearing, "One more and he could be gone forever", but can anyone actually name a player that was bounced out of the league due solely to suspensions? Guys like Charles Rogers, David Boston & Justin Blackmon had some serious drug issues and even if they weren't suspended they wouldn't have been playing. This is not that. Pot isn't serious. Not in this case at least. Gordon's DUI is pretty much the only serious red flag for me. The rest has been the league setting ridiculous standards and then throwing the book at the kid repeatedly.

[Coogan Football]

Josh Gordon is 25 now, I know I grew up a lot from 22 years old to 25, hoping he did the same. He's been in LA all year and we haven't heard anything bad, LA is an easy place to get in trouble...I have confidence in him.