Ajayi going forward?

[ninotoreS]

That's a definite outlier. How in the hell does he slip that far? smh

You know, rewind to just after the third preseason week when Ajayi hadn't even suited up for a preseason game yet and was getting railed in the wire services for incompetent pass-protection, and no one would've blinked at Ajayi going early 3rd. Just saying.

I'm the person who drafted Ajayi, by the way.

I picked Tyler Lockett before him at 2.9, and I definitely think that was the correct order of selection. Happy to end up with both, of course.

[dipANDglide]

If you want to play that game rewind to before the whole "knee is a marshmallow" He was easily a mid 1st and some scouts had him rated higher than Gordon who went 1.03-1.05

This is the beauty of dynasty football imo. Its a game of incomplete information where you try and piece it all together and make the best choice, trade, lineup submission, ect..

I like Lockett but have to laugh a little. Locket grades out at best as a wr2. Don't get me wrong, its nice to have high floor players but at the end of the day STUDS win championships. END OF STORY. Ajayi has a much higher ceiling than Locket imo.

[ninotoreS]

If you want to play that game rewind to before the whole "knee is a marshmallow" He was easily a mid 1st and some scouts had him rated higher than Gordon who went 1.03-1.05

And I guarantee you any dynasty leaguers that drafted rookies before the NFL draft, and thus took Ajayi that high, very extremely regret that selection at this moment in time.

Btw, Ajayi is currently 24th on DLF's rookie board for this year's class, putting him at 2.12 in 12-team leagues, only two picks ahead of 3.2 (Lockett is 17th, making him 2.5). As far as the median of opinion goes, I seem to be positioned very close to it.

Locket grades out at best as a wr2.

No. You can't argue that right now in any fashion but the purely subjective. Lockett possesses all the same characteristics seen in other sub-6'0" wide-receivers that were able to become fantasy elite (and lately they represent a trend on the rise in the NFL, if you notice), and he's already a proven playmaker in year one, obviously.

Ajayi for sure has heaps of near-term upside, but his dynasty value immediately tanks if Miami re-signs Lamar Miller this off-season. He'd become nothing more than a theoretically high-upside handcuff going forward, and one potentially with a degenerative knee closing the window on his long-term outlook. Like it or not, this present situation affirms a severe check on his speculative dynasty value.

STUDS win championships. Ajayi has a much higher ceiling than Locket imo.

I agree.

But good dynasty drafters balance upside with safety on their rookie draft boards. Ajayi's floor is abyssal. His ceiling is fantasy RB1... but potentially only for a window of time that's narrow even by RB standards.

[C_n_red_again]

Dolphins have a lot of $ tied up in suh tannery hill and there left tackle Albert. I bet we see a situation ala Dallas were Miller walks. Ajayi is a great stash and I believe this is why they are going to give him more opportunities to see what he's got. At this point Dolphins season is sunk really. Why not see what the kids got

[Plank]

I took him #17th overall in the HoF League ... Bill Polian was really high on him pre-draft saying he was probably one of the best backs that can make it in the NFL in a big way outside of Gurley

[snitchinsider]

For what it's worth, Ajayi has looked good in two showings, not just one. The first was his preseason game, albeit obviously against nobodies, but he looked really good in it. I breathed a bit of a sigh of relief after his preseason game because it reminded me why I drafted him in the first place. The second he looked very solid last week. We'll see how he does today. Hopefully they give him enough carries to get a decent look at him, but as has been said earlier, I wouldn't be surprised if "more carries" is really just 5-7 carries total and a catch.

[Phaded]

I picked him up and stashed him in one of my leagues where I'm RB needy.

Not a true dynasty, 16-keeper. I'm hoping he does well so I can flip him but if he doesn't - no harm.

Unless Miller walks in FA - I see it hard for him to have much fantasy value.

[DJB]

Not the most natural looking runner, but he finds the hole and bursts through it. Runs extremely hard and has had a couple nice runs so far today.

[ninotoreS]

Two more 20 yard carries for Ajayi today. That's four now in 11 career carries.

[JJDubya]

I picked him up and stashed him in one of my leagues where I'm RB needy.

Not a true dynasty, 16-keeper. I'm hoping he does well so I can flip him but if he doesn't - no harm.

Unless Miller walks in FA - I see it hard for him to have much fantasy value.

I know teams work magic with the salary cap and restructuring contracts, but Miami is in a pickle with the Suh contract which accounts for a $28.6m hit next season. Miller is playing his best football, and will follow the $ because it could be his only real payday and thus I highly doubt that Miami is his home next year. They are kicking the Ajayi tires to see what they've got, and have to be happy about it. Like Chicago, they've got a solid rookie RB that is proving to be a solid option in 2016 if the incumbent walks (which I think happens in both cases).

[DJB]

Miami is in cap hell next season so I doubt Miller is back. RB's typically chase the money so I think Ajayi has a pretty solid chance of being the guy next year.

[dipANDglide]

STUDS win championships. Ajayi has a much higher ceiling than Locket imo.

I agree.

But good dynasty drafters balance upside with safety on their rookie draft boards. Ajayi's floor is abyssal. His ceiling is fantasy RB1... but potentially only for a window of time that's narrow even by RB standards.[/quote]




1) You conveniently forgot to include the part where I said "Don't get me wrong, its nice to have high floor players"

2) Most rb's that are drafted in rookie drafts have "abyssal" floors.

3) rb's don't have a large window of time to begin with.