2015 Rookie Prediction Time Capsule

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Pac_Eddy
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Re: 2015 Rookie Prediction Time Capsule

Postby Pac_Eddy » Sun Sep 22, 2019 10:14 am

dlf_mikeh wrote:
Sun Sep 22, 2019 9:39 am
Phaded wrote:
Sun Sep 22, 2019 8:37 am
perkinsrooster wrote:
Sat Sep 21, 2019 7:47 pm
This makes me want to sell my 2020 first round picks. Even Cooper has fallen short of most expectations.
Am I overreacting?
I trade my 1sts every year.
No ragrats.

I would rather get some 2nds for upside fliers.
I looked into this once. If you have a top 6 pick, it's worth using on average. If you have a 7-12 pick, it's worth trading back for a future 1st and a 2nd.

Again, this is on average. This year a top 4 pick would have been worth using imo.
Agree with this. High firsts are worth a lot.

Are you able to trade late firsts for a first + very often? No one in my leagues would do that.
Not all that counts can be counted. Not all that can be counted counts.

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Phaded
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Re: 2015 Rookie Prediction Time Capsule

Postby Phaded » Sun Sep 22, 2019 10:16 am

My thing is - and again, not to sound arrogant but I have never had an early 1st outside of trading for it. This could also be why I'm a big advocate of trading them.
Do you want a logical debate?
You are in the wrong place.

perkinsrooster
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Re: 2015 Rookie Prediction Time Capsule

Postby perkinsrooster » Sun Sep 22, 2019 10:33 am

dlf_mikeh wrote:
Sun Sep 22, 2019 9:39 am
Phaded wrote:
Sun Sep 22, 2019 8:37 am
perkinsrooster wrote:
Sat Sep 21, 2019 7:47 pm
This makes me want to sell my 2020 first round picks. Even Cooper has fallen short of most expectations.
Am I overreacting?
I trade my 1sts every year.
No ragrats.

I would rather get some 2nds for upside fliers.
I looked into this once. If you have a top 6 pick, it's worth using on average. If you have a 7-12 pick, it's worth trading back for a future 1st and a 2nd.

Again, this is on average. This year a top 4 pick would have been worth using imo.
Did you do an article on it? I think I remember that.

perkinsrooster
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Re: 2015 Rookie Prediction Time Capsule

Postby perkinsrooster » Sun Sep 22, 2019 10:38 am

dlf_mikeh wrote:
Sun Sep 22, 2019 9:39 am
Phaded wrote:
Sun Sep 22, 2019 8:37 am
perkinsrooster wrote:
Sat Sep 21, 2019 7:47 pm
This makes me want to sell my 2020 first round picks. Even Cooper has fallen short of most expectations.
Am I overreacting?
I trade my 1sts every year.
No ragrats.

I would rather get some 2nds for upside fliers.
I looked into this once. If you have a top 6 pick, it's worth using on average. If you have a 7-12 pick, it's worth trading back for a future 1st and a 2nd.

Again, this is on average. This year a top 4 pick would have been worth using imo.
What are you thinking for 2020? I have two picks in round 1 and they are both looking to be top 8.

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FiremanEd
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Re: 2015 Rookie Prediction Time Capsule

Postby FiremanEd » Mon Sep 23, 2019 11:53 am

Eh, I find it tough to put any sort of guiding principal on it. Every year is different, every draft is different, and every league is different. One year you draft Kevin White or Devante Parker high, the next you're grabbing Evan Engram and Alvin Kamara late 1st. One year you can move back because you have an anxious buyer for a player who's willing to pay up, the next you're basically forced to make a selection otherwise you're throwing away value.

I definitely thought Abdullah's issue/risk would be related to fumbles. Interestingly, that is not why he failed.

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ArrylT
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Re: 2015 Rookie Prediction Time Capsule

Postby ArrylT » Mon Sep 23, 2019 11:56 am

Phaded wrote:
Sun Sep 22, 2019 10:16 am
My thing is - and again, not to sound arrogant but I have never had an early 1st outside of trading for it. This could also be why I'm a big advocate of trading them.
It is not arrogant if you have the evidence to back it up and I know from True Dynasty that I have yet to see you with an early 1st, and have also proven that you'll walk the walk and use your 1sts to buy players you believe in.
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

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Re: 2015 Rookie Prediction Time Capsule

Postby Shcritters » Mon Sep 23, 2019 12:19 pm

FiremanEd wrote:
Mon Sep 23, 2019 11:53 am
Eh, I find it tough to put any sort of guiding principal on it. Every year is different, every draft is different, and every league is different. One year you draft Kevin White or Devante Parker high, the next you're grabbing Evan Engram and Alvin Kamara late 1st. One year you can move back because you have an anxious buyer for a player who's willing to pay up, the next you're basically forced to make a selection otherwise you're throwing away value.

I definitely thought Abdullah's issue/risk would be related to fumbles. Interestingly, that is not why he failed.
This. Every year is different, and you need to be ready to pounce. Here is my history:
2012 - Had an early and a late. Took Doug Martin at 1.04, Isaiah Pead at 1.11. Rough draft class all around, but good choice early and should have traded back half.
2013 - Had an early and a late. Took Gio at 1.02 (bad pick in retrospect when Bell, and DHop were available) and Kenbrell Thompkins late. Traded Thompkins quickly, but good to have an early pick and should have traded late.
2014 - Sammy at 1.02, Jordan Matthews at 1.4 (I still hate you Chip Kelly!), and kept the 1.09 which turned into Odell Beckham. Good to trade up and grab a late 1st if you see a guy you like falling.
2015 - Amari and Gurley at 1.01 and 1.02, traded my late 1st as part of packages for the early picks. Nobody I'd want late - lesson learned is to be ready to deal late 1sts if you can
2016 - Missed on Treadwell at 1.03, and had traded 1st as a package for that early 1st. Nobody I wanted in the last 1st, good to have traded the late 1st.
2017 - Mike Williams fell to 1.10, Kamara at 1.09. Would have been good to have a late 1st in this draft.
2018 - Traded 2019 1st to get back into 1st at 1.10 to grab Chubb (good call), and grabbed Guice at 1.09. Good to have late 1sts when players fall.
2019 - Nobody in back half that I wanted, so didn't trade back in.

I'm with the above - if you have an early 1st be ready to use it or trade for great value, and if you have a late 1st be ready if someone falls or trade it away for more than this year's value.
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Re: 2015 Rookie Prediction Time Capsule

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Mon Sep 23, 2019 2:14 pm

The thing about late 1sts is that is where people start reaching for 5th round rbs and stuff instead of taking the better prospects at less premium positions.


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