Michael Thomas Thread: Still a WR1?

[abloom]

It's going to come down to where he lands and what his health is. Early to mid second in 1QB leagues seems reasonable. May have to settle for a late. if you're buying him I'd do it either now or during your rookie draft.

[Pac_Eddy]

Feels pretty risky. If I'm a playoff team, I'd pay a late first plus a little something.

If the Saints cut him, they'd have a $23M dead cap hit. Not sure if that makes him more or less likely to be cut. And he'll be 29 this season.

[SoftwoodGrampian]

Mid late 2

[YouMightDieTryin]

Mid 2nd value currently puts him the Skyy Moore, Metchie, Justyn Ross (if you're a gambler) zone in 1QB. I'm not sure what's the better value.

[Ice]

Feels pretty risky. If I'm a playoff team, I'd pay a late first plus a little something.

If the Saints cut him, they'd have a $23M dead cap hit. Not sure if that makes him more or less likely to be cut. And he'll be 29 this season.

Probably about right. That is a massive Cap hit. The Saint's blew it signing him. I just don't see a team paying much if anything to get him. The Saint's might have to actually give a good pick on top of him just unload his salary.

Personally, I wouldn't buy him.

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Maybe Dallas could swap Cooper, a pick, and some cash for Thomas and Payton. Of course they would move Thomas immediately because I am sure Payton can't stand Thomas.

I know a frustrated Cowboy fan Dreaming.

[StripesOfKC]

Absolutely a screaming buy

Cheapest possible WR1 in 2022 you can get

I'm buying anywhere I have a contending team

I don't think he'll be a WR1. No Payton, no QB, and I don't think he's going to be the same after that injury. I've seen some FF doctors talking doom and gloom about it. They might be wrong, but I think the expectations on MT have to be lowered quite a bit. I see him as a buy if it's cheap enough, but I really have a tough time seeing WR1 numbers unless everything falls right, and there's a lot going wrong right now with him and his situation. If he's cut, that would be a huge win for him.

He's a walking automatic 25+% target share

Unless he is totally washed (which is possible tbf but we have no reason to believe) WR1 is always in his range of outcomes with the right TD%

I'm not saying he will be one. But there is no asset in his range (rankings wise) that has that in their range of outcomes even besides maybe a pick (and that's a stretch)

[Hankybro21]

On Team 4, I bought him in the preseason for Pittman and a late 2023 2nd. I'd probably want a late 1 to move off of him.

So, I'm going down with this ship.

[ThunderTung]

Im not paying close to a first for him personally. his whole situation is weird. man goes crazy in '19, gets hurt early in '20, plays a few games towards the middle of the season, and sits out until the div round of the ploffs, then for some reason delays his surgery until the summer, then has some undisclosed set back forcing him to sit out all of '21.

I wouldnt mind taking a shot at him for the right price, but its definitely not a 1st rounder for me

[StripesOfKC]

Im not paying close to a first for him personally. his whole situation is weird. man goes crazy in '19, gets hurt early in '20, plays a few games towards the middle of the season, and sits out until the div round of the ploffs, then for some reason delays his surgery until the summer, then has some undisclosed set back forcing him to sit out all of '21.

I wouldnt mind taking a shot at him for the right price, but its definitely not a 1st rounder for me

I'm not sending a first either

I rarely ever give up a first for a player

I'm gladly sending my Gabe Davis/Kadarius Toney/2nd round pick/Miles Sanders/Jerry Jeudy and other guys I hope can produce a fraction of what I know MT can however

[Ruggenater]

Most I’d be comfortable giving up for him at this point is a late second. Around Corey Davis in value.

[StripesOfKC]

Most I’d be comfortable giving up for him at this point is a late second. Around Corey Davis in value.

Exactly why he's a screaming buy

Certifiably elite players do not get given away for free like this very often just because people find them annoying off the field

[YouMightDieTryin]

Exactly why he's a screaming buy

Certifiably elite players do not get given away for free like this very often just because people find them annoying off the field

Everyone has said what they'd PAY to take him, but no one has truly said what'd they'd actually TAKE to get rid of him besides a late 1st. Those are very distant ends.

[SoftwoodGrampian]

So the range is anywhere from late 1 to early 2 right now. Lock it in.

[Ruggenater]

Most I’d be comfortable giving up for him at this point is a late second. Around Corey Davis in value.

Exactly why he's a screaming buy

Certifiably elite players do not get given away for free like this very often just because people find them annoying off the field

It’s more than off the field concerns though. The QB situation in NO is terrible, and now they also lost Sean Payton. Thomas hasn’t played since week 14 of the 2020 season, with rumors a few months ago that he might need another surgery on his ankle. These do not combine to a recipe for success.

[mild]

Most I’d be comfortable giving up for him at this point is a late second. Around Corey Davis in value.

Exactly why he's a screaming buy

Certifiably elite players do not get given away for free like this very often just because people find them annoying off the field

It’s more than off the field concerns though. The QB situation in NO is terrible, and now they also lost Sean Payton. Thomas hasn’t played since week 14 of the 2020 season, with rumors a few months ago that he might need another surgery on his ankle. These do not combine to a recipe for success.

Agreed with that last post. I don't know what about the last two years of his career suggest "screaming buy" but I am staying well-enough away.

If he rebounds, it'll be on someone else's roster. I think he's a headcase whose more liable to act out again than to actually resume Superstar status as he ages into his 30's.