NFL is behind the times with OT rules

[nathanq42]

The Bills let KC's best two weapons get 45 yards in 13 seconds. Having a hard time saying the coin flip lost them the game. Some pretty poor clock awareness and way conservative play calling on that last drive lost them the game.

But let's say in a multiverse scenario with only two different universes, one where the chiefs win the toss and one where the bills win it. In our universe the chiefs win because they got the ball first, but in the other the bills win because they got the ball first and those are the only two possible outcomes. Either team would have marched down the field and got the TD. Then by losing the toss, the bills lost the game because of that.

As others have said the rest of the game doesn't matter, it's in the past. Both teams make mistakes throughout a game.

[BabyChark23]

The Bills let KC's best two weapons get 45 yards in 13 seconds. Having a hard time saying the coin flip lost them the game. Some pretty poor clock awareness and way conservative play calling on that last drive lost them the game.

But let's say in a multiverse scenario with only two different universes, one where the chiefs win the toss and one where the bills win it. In our universe the chiefs win because they got the ball first, but in the other the bills win because they got the ball first and those are the only two possible outcomes. Either team would have marched down the field and got the TD. Then by losing the toss, the bills lost the game because of that.

As others have said the rest of the game doesn't matter, it's in the past. Both teams make mistakes throughout a game.

The problem with your hypothetical multiverse scenario is that you limit it to two options. What about the universes where:

1. Chiefs win toss and Bills hold them to FG
2. Chiefs win toss and Bills get a stop
3. Bills win toss and Chiefs hold them to FG
4. Bills win toss and Chiefs get a stop

When you say that they won because of the toss, you are basically saying that defense is irrelevant to the game. The Bills still had a chance even after the toss.

[mild]

The Bills let KC's best two weapons get 45 yards in 13 seconds. Having a hard time saying the coin flip lost them the game. Some pretty poor clock awareness and way conservative play calling on that last drive lost them the game.

But let's say in a multiverse scenario with only two different universes, one where the chiefs win the toss and one where the bills win it. In our universe the chiefs win because they got the ball first, but in the other the bills win because they got the ball first and those are the only two possible outcomes. Either team would have marched down the field and got the TD. Then by losing the toss, the bills lost the game because of that.

As others have said the rest of the game doesn't matter, it's in the past. Both teams make mistakes throughout a game.

You've invoked the multiverse. Therefore I am obligated to remind you that we live in the reality where the Bills -let- the coin decide the game. So long as we are letting the results dictate the terms, we must also consider the multitude of -other- realities where the result was different. For example:

There are countless other realities where the Bills in fact -do not- let the Chiefs go 45 yards in 13 seconds. There were MANY ways to manipulate that clock and pull seconds off of it - a squib kick, or specifically not kicking into touchback... this is Madden 101.

That coin didn't lose them the game any more than letting Mahomes rip you for 177 yards in the final 2 minutes did. That's football, baby.

[Yarnith]

I will say again the NFL's stats say since 2004 rules changes the coin toss winner wins 60% of the time.

[nathanq42]

The Bills let KC's best two weapons get 45 yards in 13 seconds. Having a hard time saying the coin flip lost them the game. Some pretty poor clock awareness and way conservative play calling on that last drive lost them the game.

But let's say in a multiverse scenario with only two different universes, one where the chiefs win the toss and one where the bills win it. In our universe the chiefs win because they got the ball first, but in the other the bills win because they got the ball first and those are the only two possible outcomes. Either team would have marched down the field and got the TD. Then by losing the toss, the bills lost the game because of that.

As others have said the rest of the game doesn't matter, it's in the past. Both teams make mistakes throughout a game.

The problem with your hypothetical multiverse scenario is that you limit it to two options. What about the universes where:

1. Chiefs win toss and Bills hold them to FG
2. Chiefs win toss and Bills get a stop
3. Bills win toss and Chiefs hold them to FG
4. Bills win toss and Chiefs get a stop

When you say that they won because of the toss, you are basically saying that defense is irrelevant to the game. The Bills still had a chance even after the toss.

I think with the way both offenses were firing to close out regulation it's reasonable to assume (not looking through the lens of a multiverse) that from the end of regulation on more often than not either team would be getting a TD on the opening drive of OT.

I just would like to have seen the bills afforded the opportunity to answer the Chiefs' TD, or for the Chiefs to have some risk in losing the game assuming they don't score. If it is sudden death one way, it should be sudden death the other as well IMO.

[Pac_Eddy]

I will say again the NFL's stats say since 2004 rules changes the coin toss winner wins 60% of the time.

Can you post a link to this? Sounds like good reading.

[Yarnith]

I will say again the NFL's stats say since 2004 rules changes the coin toss winner wins 60% of the time.

Can you post a link to this? Sounds like good reading.

I cant find the exact search I got for the one above, not sure what I put in wrong but I did find this SI one.

https://www.si.com/nfl/2022/01/24/nfl-o ... iefs-bills

Interesting read.

[remedy29]

I will say again the NFL's stats say since 2004 rules changes the coin toss winner wins 60% of the time.

Can you post a link to this? Sounds like good reading.

I cant find the exact search I got for the one above, not sure what I put in wrong but I did find this SI one.

https://www.si.com/nfl/2022/01/24/nfl-o ... iefs-bills

Interesting read.

The NFL updated the OT rules in 2010. Why are you citing stats dating back to 2004?

The winner of the coin toss may have a statistical advantage, based on games played, but you are citing the wrong data.

[murphysxm]

I will say again the NFL's stats say since 2004 rules changes the coin toss winner wins 60% of the time.

I bet the win percentage down by 3 with 13 seconds left needing that many yards is less than 40%. Buffalo has to look in the mirror, not talk about a coin flip.

[Orenthal Shames]

Disagree.

If you can't stop a team from driving the length of the field for a TD, the loss is earned. Is there data on that the coin flip winner has a significant advantage? Is there corresponding data for college?

I agree, but the playoff OT data is significant. Playoff OT coin toss winners are 10-1.

[mild]

I will say again the NFL's stats say since 2004 rules changes the coin toss winner wins 60% of the time.

I bet the win percentage down by 3 with 13 seconds left needing that many yards is less than 40%. Buffalo has to look in the mirror, not talk about a coin flip.

I believe the ESPN predictor bot had it at a 91% win probability for Buffalo at that point.

If you live-bet it, I believe they were paying 16:1. That was the live line I heard.

[jcc6fd]

I agree that it doesn’t seem fair that both teams don’t get a chance on offense.

However haven’t seen anyone mention this exact same scenario played out in the 2019 AFC championship with the Chiefs losing in OT without getting a chance on offense. After the loss the Chiefs petitioned the league to change the rules as many of you suggested. Most of the league, including Buffalo, voted against it. So Buffalo doesn’t have anything to complain about. This is a direct consequence of their actions and a fair comeuppance.

[qazxswedcvfrtgbnhyuj]

I feel like half the folks here are bringing arguments, and actual statistics, and the other half are just saying "that's football", "stop complaining", and "should have won it in regulation time", thereby completely disregarding the actual arguments being made for why many of us feel that adding the luck of a coin flip to a measurement of skill is ridiculous.

Can anybody that is in favor of the current rules actually bring a counter argument to the fact that you are handing one team a statistical advantage via said coin flip (and I'd assume that the 20% mentioned is a lot higher if both teams are built around their offense as was the case last night)? Do we really doubt the game would have ended the same had the Bills gotten their shot at offense first by the luck of a flip?

I had no skin in the game last night, just trying to see an argument that actually speaks for the current system. Because "shouldn't have let it get to that point" really isn't one.


((Also, since one previous poster mentioned soccer and that glorious OT game... UEFA/FIFA tried sudden death as well, at the Euros 1996. The finals were decided by the most ridiculous of dumb luck goals (and I say that as a German, who's team won becauseof said goal), and the result was hated so, so much by all fans that the idea was immediately scratched and replaced by the previous system. I wish that would happen here as well.))

[remedy29]

I feel like half the folks here are bringing arguments, and actual statistics, and the other half are just saying "that's football", "stop complaining", and "should have won it in regulation time", thereby completely disregarding the actual arguments being made for why many of us feel that adding the luck of a coin flip to a measurement of skill is ridiculous.

Can anybody that is in favor of the current rules actually bring a counter argument to the fact that you are handing one team a statistical advantage via said coin flip (and I'd assume that the 20% mentioned is a lot higher if both teams are built around their offense as was the case last night)? Do we really doubt the game would have ended the same had the Bills gotten their shot at offense first by the luck of a flip?

I had no skin in the game last night, just trying to see an argument that actually speaks for the current system. Because "shouldn't have let it get to that point" really isn't one.


((Also, since one previous poster mentioned soccer and that glorious OT game... UEFA/FIFA tried sudden death as well, at the Euros 1996. The finals were decided by the most ridiculous of dumb luck goals (and I say that as a German, who's team won becauseof said goal), and the result was hated so, so much by all fans that the idea was immediately scratched and replaced by the previous system. I wish that would happen here as well.))

Alright, so the Playoff OT numbers since the NFL altered the OT rules in 2010, to first team scores a TD wins, FG results in kickoff so the other team gets the ball.

The team first to receive the ball in OT is 10-1, however, only 7 out of 11 have won on the first possession. So yes, it's currently favoring the team that gets the ball first. Prior to the Bills failure, it was 6 out of 10. Not hugely in favor of the team getting the ball first.

Fun fact, Tim Tebow was the first QB to throw a TD to win a playoff game in OT under the new rules.

[qazxswedcvfrtgbnhyuj]

I feel like half the folks here are bringing arguments, and actual statistics, and the other half are just saying "that's football", "stop complaining", and "should have won it in regulation time", thereby completely disregarding the actual arguments being made for why many of us feel that adding the luck of a coin flip to a measurement of skill is ridiculous.

Can anybody that is in favor of the current rules actually bring a counter argument to the fact that you are handing one team a statistical advantage via said coin flip (and I'd assume that the 20% mentioned is a lot higher if both teams are built around their offense as was the case last night)? Do we really doubt the game would have ended the same had the Bills gotten their shot at offense first by the luck of a flip?

I had no skin in the game last night, just trying to see an argument that actually speaks for the current system. Because "shouldn't have let it get to that point" really isn't one.


((Also, since one previous poster mentioned soccer and that glorious OT game... UEFA/FIFA tried sudden death as well, at the Euros 1996. The finals were decided by the most ridiculous of dumb luck goals (and I say that as a German, who's team won becauseof said goal), and the result was hated so, so much by all fans that the idea was immediately scratched and replaced by the previous system. I wish that would happen here as well.))

Alright, so the Playoff OT numbers since the NFL altered the OT rules in 2010, to first team scores a TD wins, FG results in kickoff so the other team gets the ball.

The team first to receive the ball in OT is 10-1, however, only 7 out of 11 have won on the first possession. So yes, it's currently favoring the team that gets the ball first. Prior to the Bills failure, it was 6 out of 10. Not hugely in favor of the team getting the ball first.

Fun fact, Tim Tebow was the first QB to throw a TD to win a playoff game in OT under the new rules.

Thanks for the numbers. So 7 of 11 then. That's a 63% win rate without one of the teams ever even getting the ball, and a 10-1 W/L ratio overall for the coin flip winner. Those numbers seem to indicate that the luck of the flip definitely influences the outcome more than it should. At least to me.