Rookie QB discussion

[honcho55]

mills had the best game by any rookie so far this season, or am i forgetting something?

Mills is a running gag in our circles... I said he had talent enough to be an NFL QB and landed in the perfect storm to get his chance. Can he take the job & run with itlikely not but I said I preferred him over Kellen Mond's situation.

Somehow that became I said he was future Pro Bowler which makes for an easy gag punch line. Especially after his all time epic horrific game the week before this. Of course that was in a driving rain against the Bills D that just made Mahomes look ordinary.

Now that being said his good stat line vs "THE GENIUS" D was a byproduct of a cpl of fluke plays that turned into big gainers. But at least he was able to go toe to toe against Belichick who usually dedtroys rookie QBs to show he can be a competent NFL QB albeit more likely as a backup. Nkt thinking he's the 2nd coming of Brady (we all know that MAC is)

Seems like a nice place to post this idea:

We hear about how great belichick is vs rookie QBs, and we see the stats over and over again.

I wonder how rookie QBs do in general, vs how they do against belichick. Far as I can tell, rookie QBs don’t regularly win a ton of games, in fact my strategy for redraft leagues with Team D, for decades has been to stream defenses vs rooks, even ones I’m high on.

Anyone have numbers on this? If not maybe I’ll dig em up and report back later in the week.

[timeEd32]

I have a chance to swap Wilson for Fields (not a straight swap; part of a larger deal) or I may be able to get Mac and keep Wilson. Very torn about what to do.

[YouMightDieTryin]

Mac seems to be safest out of the 3, but he's not a fantasy darling (yet?). Fields has shown he's capable and eager - might actually have the highest fantasy ceiling. Poor Wilson and the gol darn Jets.

[FantasyFreak]

Mac seems to be safest out of the 3, but he's not a fantasy darling (yet?). Fields has shown he's capable and eager - might actually have the highest fantasy ceiling. Poor Wilson and the gol darn Jets.

Fields looks very lethargic. I think Lance looks to have the highest ceiling, with that rushing upside. I see early Cam Newton type ceiling in his first full year as a starter, but he's certainly not there yet. 89 yards and a few inches from a rushing TD in his first ever start.

[BabyChark23]

Mac seems to be safest out of the 3, but he's not a fantasy darling (yet?). Fields has shown he's capable and eager - might actually have the highest fantasy ceiling. Poor Wilson and the gol darn Jets.

Fields looks very lethargic. I think Lance looks to have the highest ceiling, with that rushing upside. I see early Cam Newton type ceiling in his first full year as a starter, but he's certainly not there yet. 89 yards and a few inches from a rushing TD in his first ever start.

The rushing upside is there, but I would argue that Fields has that as well. It’s a toss up between these two for me, with maybe a slight edge to Lance due to situation. Both look pretty “meh” right now. Lance has to solve his accuracy and touch problems. Fields has to start moving through his progressions faster.

[Jigga94]

Feels like there is a good chance 3 of these guys are busts and only 1 will be really good. Plenty of time but man... not encouraging day for Fields or Wilson

[Cameron Giles]

Feels like there is a good chance 3 of these guys are busts and only 1 will be really good. Plenty of time but man... not encouraging day for Fields or Wilson

Said it in the other thread.

*3 most important factors in QB Development

- Coaching/Playcalling
- Franchise/Organization
- Offensive line

*Elite/Near-elite QB talents can nullify all of the above. After that, skill position talent starts to matter.

Time will tell how the above works out for each of the QBs, but as far as this season, Mac Jones is the only one who has all 3 boxes checked.

Playing QB in the NFL is really, really, really hard. There's only a handful of really good ones.

[Sriracha]

Feels like there is a good chance 3 of these guys are busts and only 1 will be really good. Plenty of time but man... not encouraging day for Fields or Wilson

Said it in the other thread.

*3 most important factors in QB Development

- Coaching/Playcalling
- Franchise/Organization
- Offensive line

*Elite/Near-elite QB talents can nullify all of the above. After that, skill position talent starts to matter.

Time will tell how the above works out for each of the QBs, but as far as this season, Mac Jones is the only one who has all 3 boxes checked.

Playing QB in the NFL is really, really, really hard. There's only a handful of really good ones.

Trey Lance?

[Krypto_King]

Fields gets negative help from his teammates/coaches. 2nd and 9 pass every time. No runs, no screens, 1 first down pass (that went for 20), 2 play action plays I believe. tipped pass INT, ARob can't find the ball INT, 2 sack/fumbles when he was throwing his first read but RT was instantly beaten. It is brutal to watch

[Cameron Giles]

Feels like there is a good chance 3 of these guys are busts and only 1 will be really good. Plenty of time but man... not encouraging day for Fields or Wilson

Said it in the other thread.

*3 most important factors in QB Development

- Coaching/Playcalling
- Franchise/Organization
- Offensive line

*Elite/Near-elite QB talents can nullify all of the above. After that, skill position talent starts to matter.

Time will tell how the above works out for each of the QBs, but as far as this season, Mac Jones is the only one who has all 3 boxes checked.

Playing QB in the NFL is really, really, really hard. There's only a handful of really good ones.

Trey Lance?

I think he joins that, but he's only started once.

[Menace2010]

Lawrence has at least repeatedly flashed his insane upside, I'm still all in on him. Mac Jones looks exactly like everyone expected, a capable game manager in by far the best situation for rookie year success. The other three... haven't shown much reason for optimism.

What's everyone doing in Superflex leagues? Holding, hoping, and praying (not overreacting to such a small sample size) or reacting before the bottom falls out?

[FantasyFreak]

Lawrence has at least repeatedly flashed his insane upside, I'm still all in on him. Mac Jones looks exactly like everyone expected, a capable game manager in by far the best situation for rookie year success. The other three... haven't shown much reason for optimism.

What's everyone doing in Superflex leagues? Holding, hoping, and praying (not overreacting to such a small sample size) or reacting before the bottom falls out?

I think Lawrence will be OK, but I don't think he's going to be a top 5 type NFL QB. 5-12 range is the range I see him in. Fields and Wilson I have zero expectations for. Didn't like them, still don't. Lance could be good for FF, and he will get plenty of rope with that draft capital, but he's such a project. So raw, and unrefined. I drafted him in one SF league, and expect him to be sort of Cam Newton early years type guy. Lots of rushing, a dual threat player that isn't a great passer, but good enough along with the rushing to keep teams guessing. I don't think Lance will ever be an elite level passer, but with his mobility, he won't need to be, to be effective. I think Lance has as much upside as Lawrence from a FF perspective, but probably not as an NFL QB.

[Mjvb5]

Lawrence has at least repeatedly flashed his insane upside, I'm still all in on him. Mac Jones looks exactly like everyone expected, a capable game manager in by far the best situation for rookie year success. The other three... haven't shown much reason for optimism.

What's everyone doing in Superflex leagues? Holding, hoping, and praying (not overreacting to such a small sample size) or reacting before the bottom falls out?

When players look that kinda bad, if I have an opportunity to sell at 90%+ of my buy in price I take it and run. I know I know "they're rookies you need to give them time" the issue is for every allen there's 3 or 4 mitch trubiskys that we forget about. Fwiw I sold fields and a late 22 first for tanny and the likely 1.1 in 23. I got fields at 7 and sold him for basically that kinda value so I took it and ran. Rookies that look good I need to overpay as rookie production is the highest correlation to future success

[Ice]

Lawrence is a future rock star.

Mac is a long term safe legit starter. He is top 5 in completion percentage as a rookie. Time to give this kid his due as legit NFL QB. The Pats are even opening up the offense with him. Looks like a lock QB2 in fantasy with upside for the foreseeable future.

The rest have plenty of potential but at this point San Fran, The Bears, & as always the Jets may have serious coaching issues that could hurt development.

[Patsfan86]

Feels like there is a good chance 3 of these guys are busts and only 1 will be really good. Plenty of time but man... not encouraging day for Fields or Wilson

Said it in the other thread.

*3 most important factors in QB Development

- Coaching/Playcalling
- Franchise/Organization
- Offensive line

*Elite/Near-elite QB talents can nullify all of the above. After that, skill position talent starts to matter.

Time will tell how the above works out for each of the QBs, but as far as this season, Mac Jones is the only one who has all 3 boxes checked.

Playing QB in the NFL is really, really, really hard. There's only a handful of really good ones.

In regards to Mac, yes to the first two pieces but a big no to the bolded. This O line has not been good and has gotten him killled in some games. True yesterday was vs the Jets but Mac finally led the team to a blowout win at home, he is getting better. If rookie production correlates the most to future production why are people so insistent on calling Mac "Just a game manager"? He did have a 46 yard td pass yesterday. I just think that in this age of the big armed highlight play talent like Mahomes and Herbert people are far to focused on big play arm talent. Im not sure if Mac will be a fantasy stud but im confused why so many people dont see room for growth and are convinced he will just be Andy Dalton?

As far as the other QBs, i am totally out on Fields and Zach Wilson, mostly Wilson, he is just not good. Yes the teams are horrific but they both just make some mind numbing mistakes that i dont understand. Trevor Lawrence will still be the best QB in this class, i dont doubt that at all. He will be the best Fantasy and real life QB from it. Trey Lance is extremely unpredictable and those who drafted him are gonna have to be patient. With the 2022 QB class looking so bad everyone is gonna have to hope these QBs look better.