Michael Thomas Thread: Still a WR1?

[Mike from Canada]

You win some you lose some.

[Pullo Vision]

He had a lights out 2019, but 2020 went bad. I can write off the injury, and losing Brees isn't devastating to me. But, the surgery knocking him out for likely the first few weeks of the year has me skittish. An owner in one of my leagues bought high in the 2019 offseason and is actually trying to sell him now (atypical for this owner).

Where are you on Thomas, now?

[grandmabetty]

Sold him in one league. The ankle is a concern but I'm more concerned with his age and his QB situation. At 28 years old taking injuries and QB play out of the equation he has what? 2 maybe 3 years of elite production left? Factor in the fact that he is injured and he has no QB and I'm selling if I can get good value

[Orenthal Shames]

He had a lights out 2019, but 2020 went bad. I can write off the injury, and losing Brees isn't devastating to me. But, the surgery knocking him out for likely the first few weeks of the year has me skittish. An owner in one of my leagues bought high in the 2019 offseason and is actually trying to sell him now (atypical for this owner).

Where are you on Thomas, now?

He's a major sell for me. Medial ankle ligaments tears are no joke. 2021 is shot. He may never be the same again .

[murphysxm]

I can't imagine you are going to get anything close to value for him right now. Mine as well hold and hope he has a 2-3 week run once he comes back.

[ItsHandsomeDave]

Now is not the time to sell him, its the time to buy him if you want to gamble on him.

[Anteaters]

He had a lights out 2019, but 2020 went bad. I can write off the injury, and losing Brees isn't devastating to me. But, the surgery knocking him out for likely the first few weeks of the year has me skittish. An owner in one of my leagues bought high in the 2019 offseason and is actually trying to sell him now (atypical for this owner).

Where are you on Thomas, now?

Sell, because I think his career is only going to continue to disappoint. The peak was great, but the decline is in full swing.

[Anteaters]

The Fantasy Doctors analyze MT's ankle injury and surgeries. The entire video is very informative, but starting at 3.48 is where it gets very interesting from a dynasty pov. Basically, the doctor says this type of injury could (likely?) derail MT's career and explains why. He also discusses the implications for other NO offensive players.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fj9kaHGgbnY&t=257s
"I have serious concerns that Michael Thomas will never be the Michael Thomas that we knew 2 years ago.
...
What is the fantasy implication of this? He's on my do-not-draft list. ... I don't care if he's in the 12th round, I want nothing to do with him."


At the end, he briefly discusses MT's dynasty value "Try to trade him for 75cents on the dollar to someone who hasn't watched this video."

75cents? If MT owners wait till the season for some hoped-for improvement to temporarily boost his value before trading him, they might not get 50cents on a devalued dollar.

[Pew Dogs]

I realize that this was a total bailout but I'm willing to cut bait ... traded him just now straight up for Kenny Golladay.

[Cameron Giles]

For the prices people are selling for, I think he's a buy. Even if he's not the same after this, there's not really much risk.

[Pullo Vision]

The Fantasy Doctors analyze MT's ankle injury and surgeries. The entire video is very informative, but starting at 3.48 is where it gets very interesting from a dynasty pov. Basically, the doctor says this type of injury could (likely?) derail MT's career and explains why. He also discusses the implications for other NO offensive players.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fj9kaHGgbnY&t=257s
"I have serious concerns that Michael Thomas will never be the Michael Thomas that we knew 2 years ago.
...
What is the fantasy implication of this? He's on my do-not-draft list. ... I don't care if he's in the 12th round, I want nothing to do with him."


At the end, he briefly discusses MT's dynasty value "Try to trade him for 75cents on the dollar to someone who hasn't watched this video."

75cents? If MT owners wait till the season for some hoped-for improvement to temporarily boost his value before trading him, they might not get 50cents on a devalued dollar.

Thanks for sharing. I appreciated the medical info. The moment he said he wouldn't draft him at all, even if he was available in the 12 round (redraft), I had to discount his fantasy perspective. Even if his floor has dropped when be plays and you have to park him on IR for half the year, there's still value to be had.

[Anteaters]

The moment he said he wouldn't draft him at all, even if he was available in the 12 round (redraft), I had to discount his fantasy perspective. Even if his floor has dropped when be plays and you have to park him on IR for half the year, there's still value to be had.

I understand what you're saying, and I want to be hopeful too.

The way I took it was he is a medical professional whose opinion is MT's injury is so significant he will never be nearly the player he once was. My take is that if MT is half the player he was when he was in 2019 when he was the overall WR1, he would average 11pts/gm in ppr. That would make MT somewhere around WR32-39 for averages pts per game.

That puts the 2021 best-case-scenario version of MT around the 2020 finishes of Gallup/Hollywood/Fuller/Aiyuk. I know some will disagree, but with this new information, if I'm presented with anyone from that group and MT, I'm drafting any of them except MT.

Another thing that worries me is AC Green's rapid decline. 2017 AJG finished as WR10 in ppr, in 2015 AJG was WR8. In 2018, he suffered a groin injury, then a serious pedal ankle injury (similar but different than MT's) that hobbled him all season as he tried to play through it. AJG reinjured his ankle in preseason 2019 and sat out the entire 2019 season. He returned in 2020 amid a lot of hope and wishful thinking, only to be a shadow of his former great WR - less than half the yards and 1/4 the TDs as 2017. AJG played in all 16 games in 2020, caught less than 50% of his targets, and finished as the WR44. Unable to find even one team that would trade for him, Cincy released AJG.

Both were target hogs, with great hands, precise routes, great ability. In their heydays, both averaged 1100-1200yds and 8-9 TDs per season. AJ Green had just turned 30yo when he suffered his injuries in 2018. MT is currently 28.5yo. AJG is 6'-4", 210lbs. MT is 6'3", 212lbs. Very similar builds and very similar players.

And, it look like, very similar injuries will lead to very similar declines.

While I don't think it will happen, I'd love to see Green revitalize his career in AZ and MT look like his old self after week 8 this year.

[Hankybro21]

Good thing I recently moved Mixon for him in one league and declined to move him for Terry in another

[ArrylT]

The Fantasy Doctors analyze MT's ankle injury and surgeries. The entire video is very informative, but starting at 3.48 is where it gets very interesting from a dynasty pov. Basically, the doctor says this type of injury could (likely?) derail MT's career and explains why. He also discusses the implications for other NO offensive players.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fj9kaHGgbnY&t=257s
"I have serious concerns that Michael Thomas will never be the Michael Thomas that we knew 2 years ago.
...
What is the fantasy implication of this? He's on my do-not-draft list. ... I don't care if he's in the 12th round, I want nothing to do with him."


At the end, he briefly discusses MT's dynasty value "Try to trade him for 75cents on the dollar to someone who hasn't watched this video."

75cents? If MT owners wait till the season for some hoped-for improvement to temporarily boost his value before trading him, they might not get 50cents on a devalued dollar.

Thanks for sharing. I appreciated the medical info. The moment he said he wouldn't draft him at all, even if he was available in the 12 round (redraft), I had to discount his fantasy perspective. Even if his floor has dropped when be plays and you have to park him on IR for half the year, there's still value to be had.

Yeah there is at least one twitter account giving medical thoughts that thinks he could be back (best case scenario) by Week 7

https://twitter.com/ff_injury

[osubuckeyeman]

What to do with Michael Thomas in Dynasty? The injury situation. The rumors. How this affects the Saints offense as a whole and individually. Personal experience with similar injury recently. Information provided by my orthopedic surgeon regarding my injury and how this is similar to Michael Thomas.


https://youtu.be/p8vL0cUd5Nw