mild wrote: ↑
Wed Jul 21, 2021 3:58 pm
There has been zero RB's return to fantasy relevance after an Achilles. ZERO. None. Marlon Mack would be the outlier if he does (not to mention he's got an all-time stud in front of him) - this is Fantasy (gambling)... we never bet the outlier.
Imho that could be deemed incorrect.
Patrick Mahomes / Josh Allen
Christian McCaffrey / Arian Foster
DK Metcalf / Stefon Diggs
Darren Waller / Antonio Gates
each of those were outliers for various reasons & many of the recent ones were panned by a good majority of the community until they hit.
The key is not to avoid betting the outlier - the key is to bet on the outlier at a cost you can afford to bet on without losing all of your chips. IE you don't go all in
Will Cam Akers recover from the Achilles - hard to determine. Not saying he will or he won't. Apart from that list, Jonathan Stewart may or may not qualify (as he had achilles issues and a surgery back in 2010).
Simply saying that if a person believes Akers has a shot at rehabbing fully & re-gaining the touches he would have had - then they should consider buying him at a cost they feel they can afford to spend. What that price is - well that is up to each owner. My guess is most will see the recent trade(s) that go down this week and then use that as a baseline to aim a little lower (ie the closer to the season the more pressure on the Akers owner to determine if they want to sell or hold).
DLF_Mikeh gave quite solid advice in his instant reaction article - but it was geared (imo) more to the Akers owner.
If you're a person who doesnt own Akers then
1 - If you do not believe or dont like those risks then obviously I do not need to tell you to avoid buying. Nor am I recommend that anyone do so. Just that there is absolutely nothing wrong with ignoring consensus when you want to take a risk. As we like to joke here on the forums - Consensus told you at one point to draft Hakeem Butler.
Consensus will tell you to avoid Cam Akers. Nothing wrong with either playing it safe, and folding or continuing your hand and seeing the outcome.
2 - If you're open to calculated risks, then explore at a cost you feel you can handle. IE make small bets.
3 - Make sure you know going in what your plan of action is. IE if you want to acquire to hold Akers til next year then maybe be patient. Once whomever is leading the Rams as their RB is producing, Akers value will obviously take another dip and their owner - especially if they are a team who wanted to contend - will likely want to move before the value keeps falling. IE manage your chips and spend at the right time.
4 - If you're a buy & flip type trader - then make sure you know what you want out of the deal. Do you want to send a 1st for Akers and a 2nd and then flip Akers for a producer in-season and use the 2nd for another? How will you get this done? IE know your league / fellow poker players.
5 - Above all, know the odds and remember the cost is sunk once you've bought regardless of outcome.
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..