Mike Davis - Starting in Atlanta?

[Pullo Vision]

Is Davis' platoon-mate/competition already on the roster?

Apparently, Cordarrelle Patterson is 2nd on RB depth chart. They want to use him on screens and sweeps, but need him to be a threat running it for those to be effective.

"Smith has made it clear the career receiver would work from the backfield this season in a true position switch"- https://www.atlantafalcons.com/news/wha ... s-minicamp

Fwiw, Dave Ragone is Atlanta's OC now and was the QB coach and passing game coordinator in Chicago last year.

https://www.nfl.com/_amp/cordarrelle-pa ... year-at-rb

[Bronco Billy]

Is Davis' platoon-mate/competition already on the roster?

Apparently, Cordarrelle Patterson is 2nd on RB depth chart. They want to use him on screens and sweeps, but need him to be a threat running it for those to be effective.

"Smith has made it clear the career receiver would work from the backfield this season in a true position switch"- https://www.atlantafalcons.com/news/wha ... s-minicamp

Fwiw, Dave Ragone is Atlanta's OC now and was the QB coach and passing game coordinator in Chicago last year.

https://www.nfl.com/_amp/cordarrelle-pa ... year-at-rb

So a 30 yr old who has had 8 years in the league with 4 different teams who all tried to find a way to use him in different ways but still never earned more than 92 touches in his best season is suddenly going to become an impact player on his 5th team by becoming a true RB?

Not buying into this being any kind of a success at all.

[Anteaters]

Looking forward to collecting MD shares. CPatterson is barely more of a threat to MD's touches than I am. No worries there.

[CGW]

Should be a cheap and relatively reliable RB2 for competitors. I'm a seller if I'm holding and not competing in 2021 as I find it highly unlikely they roll with him for more than a season. Rebuild is coming for Atlanta.

[Bronco Billy]

Should be a cheap and relatively reliable RB2 for competitors. I'm a seller if I'm holding and not competing in 2021 as I find it highly unlikely they roll with him for more than a season. Rebuild is coming for Atlanta.

[s]2nd on the depth chart means very little at this time of the year.[/s]

Sorry, mistook you continuing the conversation on Patterson.

I’m not sure Davis is going to be a reliable RB2. I could see him giving up touches to one of the kids, and my money right now is on Hawkins.

[Pullo Vision]

Looking forward to collecting MD shares. CPatterson is barely more of a threat to MD's touches than I am. No worries there.

I'm not convinced Patterson transitions to a full time, between the tackles RB. But, if he can be effective enough there, it could allow him to flourish as a pass catcher. In that sense, he'd be like James White. What if he could fill a Harvin/CSamuel role?

At a minimum, the prospect CPatt will be used for quick passes like screens is VERY relevant for Mike Davis, since he had the 2nd highest percentage of his team's receptions last year- https://i0.wp.com/www.thefantasyauthori ... =498&ssl=1. PPR is a cheap source of points and Davis had a bunch of them last year. Any threat to that high value workload this year needs to be taken seriously.

I can definitely see a Davis/CPatt platoon being a 1/4, 1/2 or 3/4 season thing until they decide to see what the young'ns can do. Until then, take the points.

Longer term, I'm not convinced they'll be going rebuild after this year. The roster looks primed for one, but why would coach Smith sign up for that transition? Based on his comments, he's looking to compete, and he doesn't believe he needs a smashmouth run game, or Derrick Henry clone, to win. He's looking for players who can attack a defense in multiple ways, and Pitts, Patterson and Gage are considered examples of that.

[Bronco Billy]

Davis is the RB version of Patterson. 6 years in the league, 4 different teams and now going on his 5th. Career 3.7 ypa and exactly one year where his ypa was over 4.0. The other 5 he was under the Mendoza line for RBs in each of them. He’s the definition of a replacement level RB and is 28 yrs old.

This is not a guy that you rely on to impact your RB corps.

[Jigga94]

Davis is the RB version of Patterson. 6 years in the league, 4 different teams and now going on his 5th. Career 3.7 ypa and exactly one year where his ypa was over 4.0. The other 5 he was under the Mendoza line for RBs in each of them. He’s the definition of a replacement level RB and is 28 yrs old.

This is not a guy that you rely on to impact your RB corps.

I agree but if he does end up starting, he should be a cheap RB2 on a contender. Long term outlook is minimal which is why he will come cheap

[Bronco Billy]

Davis is the RB version of Patterson. 6 years in the league, 4 different teams and now going on his 5th. Career 3.7 ypa and exactly one year where his ypa was over 4.0. The other 5 he was under the Mendoza line for RBs in each of them. He’s the definition of a replacement level RB and is 28 yrs old.

This is not a guy that you rely on to impact your RB corps.

I agree but if he does end up starting, he should be a cheap RB2 on a contender. Long term outlook is minimal which is why he will come cheap

I think you’re being optimistic.

In 22 games as a starter over his career, Davis has done the following:

275 carries for 1058 yds 8 TDs 12.5 apg 48.1 ruypg 0.36 ruTDpg 3.85 ypa
76 catches for 444 yds 3 TDs 3.5 rpg 20.2 reypg 0.13 reTDpg 5.77 ypr

Those kind of numbers would have put him at RB27 in our league last year - and that’s a best case scenario for him IMO. You’re looking at a bye week filler as his ceiling. And that’s hoping the HC will hold his nose and stand for a sub 4.0 ypa RB as a starter in his backfield instead of trying someone else (anyone else) back there.

And that’s providing he can hold off all competition, including a guy who was a bonafide prolific RB at a power 5 school (but he is an UDFA, so there is that).

Again, I’m not seeing the upside that some are hoping for from this guy.

[Jigga94]

Davis is the RB version of Patterson. 6 years in the league, 4 different teams and now going on his 5th. Career 3.7 ypa and exactly one year where his ypa was over 4.0. The other 5 he was under the Mendoza line for RBs in each of them. He’s the definition of a replacement level RB and is 28 yrs old.

This is not a guy that you rely on to impact your RB corps.

I agree but if he does end up starting, he should be a cheap RB2 on a contender. Long term outlook is minimal which is why he will come cheap

I think you’re being optimistic.

In 22 games as a starter over his career, Davis has done the following:

275 carries for 1058 yds 8 TDs 12.5 apg 48.1 ruypg 0.36 ruTDpg 3.85 ypa
76 catches for 444 yds 3 TDs 3.5 rpg 20.2 reypg 0.13 reTDpg 5.77 ypr

Those kind of numbers would have put him at RB27 in our league last year - and that’s a best case scenario for him IMO. You’re looking at a bye week filler as his ceiling. And that’s hoping the HC will hold his nose and stand for a sub 4.0 ypa RB as a starter in his backfield instead of trying someone else (anyone else) back there.

And that’s providing he can hold off all competition, including a guy who was a bonafide prolific RB at a power 5 school (but he is an UDFA, so there is that).

Again, I’m not seeing the upside that some are hoping for from this guy.

Don't get me wrong, it's not me thinking he has massive upside, or is that good of a RB, I agree with you there. But if he gets starting RB touches and holds onto the job, he should put up the numbers to be a RB2 or flex at worst. There's just not enough RB in the league that have that opportunity to receive a bulk of the load.

I think optimism is thinking a UDFA or anyone else in this backfield is competent to take the starting job. I won't be surprised if it happens though, but as of now he's in line for a lot of work and that would translate to fantasy success imo.

Also, should have said that while I think he can be an RB2, on a true competitive team, he's going to be flex or depth hopefully. I didn't really clarify that in my 1st post. I think if Davis is your true RB2 you're probably not competitive. My point stands that he's probably one of the cheaper RB options that could get a bulk of the workload

[Anteaters]

Looking forward to collecting MD shares. CPatterson is barely more of a threat to MD's touches than I am. No worries there.

I'm not convinced Patterson transitions to a full time, between the tackles RB. But, if he can be effective enough there, it could allow him to flourish as a pass catcher. In that sense, he'd be like James White. What if he could fill a Harvin/CSamuel role?

At a minimum, the prospect CPatt will be used for quick passes like screens is VERY relevant for Mike Davis, since he had the 2nd highest percentage of his team's receptions last year- https://i0.wp.com/www.thefantasyauthori ... =498&ssl=1. PPR is a cheap source of points and Davis had a bunch of them last year. Any threat to that high value workload this year needs to be taken seriously.

I can definitely see a Davis/CPatt platoon being a 1/4, 1/2 or 3/4 season thing until they decide to see what the young'ns can do. Until then, take the points.

Longer term, I'm not convinced they'll be going rebuild after this year. The roster looks primed for one, but why would coach Smith sign up for that transition? Based on his comments, he's looking to compete, and he doesn't believe he needs a smashmouth run game, or Derrick Henry clone, to win. He's looking for players who can attack a defense in multiple ways, and Pitts, Patterson and Gage are considered examples of that.

Maybe.

However, in the last four years on three different teams, CP averaged 52 touches/yr which is about 3/gm, and less than 2TDs/yr. There is no reason to assume a 30 year-old declining slash-player is going to rejuvenate his career on his 5th team in 6 seasons. 3 touches per game isn't a threat to any starter.

CP had some potential coming out of college, but through 8 seasons he never really got enough of a chance to be a difference maker in the NFL. I doubt he miraculously puts it together in his 9th NFL season and threatens MD's role in Atlanta.

[ArrylT]

I am not saying it is going to happen with Mike Davis (although 2019 was an indicator of fantasy success) - just that there have been precedents where RBs who changed teams multiple times before having a spurt of fantasy relevancy. Whether it is Joique Bell, Spencer Ware, Justin Forsett and/or Raheem Mostert (to name a few) players have had to find the right fit to have success - even if short term (1-2 years). Some times they fade away due to injuries, some times due to other factors - but they do have a window of production that an owner can take advantage of.

it is important to remember that 32 teams means 32 different ways to run an offence. Well maybe not 32 different unique offences but 32 takes on different schemes. 2 teams can run the same scheme but from different formations & use different blocking techniques. A player of limited talents in one area can still be very useful in a different area. We see this frequently with Bill Belichick in NE.

The point being is that a player may not fit into what a team is trying to do - but the coaches may be stubborn enough to try and force that round peg into that triangular hole nonetheless - but can then a few years later land on a different team that has a different approach and the round peg goes into a round hole. Tevin Coleman was never a great fit in Atlanta and unfortunately injuries kept him from taking full advantage of a better fit in SF.

Obviously, it seems that the Falcons feel Davis is the right fit atm - whether he turns out to be we'll see soon enough. They still have time to sign another veteran later on. But he was around RB12 last year and as long as he gets the consistent touches (16-22? tpg), another low RB1 high RB2 year of production should be feasible. Davis does not have to be the centre point of the offence - he just has to be skilled enough to help the run game work enough to allow the passing game to operate. Personally I dont think Davis will be a league winner on his own - but he could quite possibly be a value as your RB2 or even better as a Flex option. But we'll see. If the coaches don't like what they see or if the game scripts constantly force the running game to be marginalized ...

[Anteaters]

Personally I dont think Davis will be a league winner on his own - but he could quite possibly be a value as your RB2 or even better as a Flex option.

Agree mostly. That's about where I am, except I lean a little more to the high side while it seems you lean to the low side.

[atlmoneyman]

I still think Falcons will add a veteran RB after other teams cut down to 53. I believe that Davis will end up in a RBBC.

[dvpkwys]

I have Davis on the bench, he will possibly be a bye week filler, or flex at points. I have no faith in Atlanta, and thus don't have full trust in Davis. But as a depth guy, I am happy I added him for free.