James Robinson

[Cameron Giles]

A lot of people are making some pretty bold assumptions with very little evidence to support their position - because right now no one knows how Meyer and Bevell will set up the JAX offense.

I’ve written a couple of posts between this thread and the Etienne thread that it is entirely conceivable given the histories of Meyer and Bevell that this offense could support 2 RBs - with Robinson approximately repeating last year’s performance and Etienne getting enough opportunity in a role similar to the way Meyer has used slash type players throughout his coaching career to get Etienne approximately 200 touches.

It really starts to make even more sense now that the NFL is going to 17 games. And that at least has some historical support of what the HC and OC have a decided history in doing, which is to establish a power running game to set up the passing game, and then simultaneously using a versatile flexible stud player in multiple locations across the offense as a dual RB/WR hybrid in Meyer’s case.

But again, where are the touches coming from?

Last season:

Robinson - 289
Shenault - 76
Chark - 53
Cole - 55
Conley - 40
Eifert - 36

Lost: Keelan Cole, Chris Conley, Tyler Eifert
Added: Marvin Jones, Phillip Dorsett, Chris Manhertz

Chark is likely to bounce back in volume. Jones assumes Cole's volume. Dorsett, Manhertz don't really matter.

So, how does Etienne get involved in the offense while keeping Robinson's almost-300 touch volume intact?

Someone mentioned Kamara/Ingram, but what you have to realize is that there was volume lost for Kamara to step in and assume. They lost Cooks 117 targets from the season before and Snead's role collapsed from 104 to a bit player. So Kamara's receiving role was open for volume. They lost Hightower from the year before (133 carries) so that also freed up Kamara for those touches.

Robinson made up such a large amount of Jacksonville's touches last season (40% of carries + receptions) that it's damn near impossible for him not to lose a signifcant amount of volume next season.

[OhCruelestRanter]

Even if you take the absolute rosiest projection and say that Etienne was drafted strictly as a 3rd round back and WR, then Robinson, who was the 11th most targeted RB last year, is clearly going to lose a big chunk of that high value passing game work.

This thread feels like a bunch of people who can’t get past the denial-anger stages of the Kübler-Ross cycle.

[sugbear65]

9811FA50-4B71-4885-94F2-B83F0867CD38.jpeg (41.85 KiB) Viewed 405 times

[thebeast]

So yeah, I get it - we don't know what the offense looks like. What we do know is they spent a 1st round rookie pick on a dynamic RB when they really had bigger holes and that 1st round rookie RBs get loads of opportunity share.

I think this is what everyone is getting hung up on. They are saying that isn't how they want to use him. They have stated they were planning to draft Toney, when he was gone they picked ETN wth the vision of using him like Percy Harvin, not as a traditional RB. If they had picked Toney how would the community have reacted to Jrob? People are assuming too much simply based on ETN's designation vs listening to what Urban Meyer is saying and doing.

[Cameron Giles]

So yeah, I get it - we don't know what the offense looks like. What we do know is they spent a 1st round rookie pick on a dynamic RB when they really had bigger holes and that 1st round rookie RBs get loads of opportunity share.

I think this is what everyone is getting hung up on. They are saying that isn't how they want to use him. They have stated they were planning to draft Toney, when he was gone they picked ETN wth the vision of using him like Percy Harvin, not as a traditional RB. If they had picked Toney how would the community have reacted to Jrob? People are assuming too much simply based on ETN's designation vs listening to what Urban Meyer is saying and doing.

Toney was a WR/RB/ST in college. Etienne played RB full-time.

Even if Etienne lines up at WR in certain formations, he's still eating into Robinson's usage from last season significantly.

I would love to see the statistical projection that keeps Robinson's 40% share intact while also adding a 1st round opportunity workload for Etienne.

[Ice]

So yeah, I get it - we don't know what the offense looks like. What we do know is they spent a 1st round rookie pick on a dynamic RB when they really had bigger holes and that 1st round rookie RBs get loads of opportunity share.

I think this is what everyone is getting hung up on. They are saying that isn't how they want to use him. They have stated they were planning to draft Toney, when he was gone they picked ETN wth the vision of using him like Percy Harvin, not as a traditional RB. If they had picked Toney how would the community have reacted to Jrob? People are assuming too much simply based on ETN's designation vs listening to what Urban Meyer is saying and doing.

Maybe it is getting hung up on what Meyer is doing with only a few rookie players at a 3 day rookie mini camp.

I will believe ETN is a WR when the Jags officially change his player designation to WR once they release their official depth chart. I place those odds at around 3% personally.

Obviously all kind of theories will be put forth in the silly season. ETN is a highly accomplished RB that can run and catch. He might be the mirror image of Curtis Samuel for those that really want to engage in ETN as a WR.

[Bronco Billy]

A lot of people are making some pretty bold assumptions with very little evidence to support their position - because right now no one knows how Meyer and Bevell will set up the JAX offense.

I’ve written a couple of posts between this thread and the Etienne thread that it is entirely conceivable given the histories of Meyer and Bevell that this offense could support 2 RBs - with Robinson approximately repeating last year’s performance and Etienne getting enough opportunity in a role similar to the way Meyer has used slash type players throughout his coaching career to get Etienne approximately 200 touches.

It really starts to make even more sense now that the NFL is going to 17 games. And that at least has some historical support of what the HC and OC have a decided history in doing, which is to establish a power running game to set up the passing game, and then simultaneously using a versatile flexible stud player in multiple locations across the offense as a dual RB/WR hybrid in Meyer’s case.

But again, where are the touches coming from?

Last season:

Robinson - 289
Shenault - 76
Chark - 53
Cole - 55
Conley - 40
Eifert - 36

Lost: Keelan Cole, Chris Conley, Tyler Eifert
Added: Marvin Jones, Phillip Dorsett, Chris Manhertz

Chark is likely to bounce back in volume. Jones assumes Cole's volume. Dorsett, Manhertz don't really matter.

So, how does Etienne get involved in the offense while keeping Robinson's almost-300 touch volume intact?

Someone mentioned Kamara/Ingram, but what you have to realize is that there was volume lost for Kamara to step in and assume. They lost Cooks 117 targets from the season before and Snead's role collapsed from 104 to a bit player. So Kamara's receiving role was open for volume. They lost Hightower from the year before (133 carries) so that also freed up Kamara for those touches.

Robinson made up such a large amount of Jacksonville's touches last season (40% of carries + receptions) that it's damn near impossible for him not to lose a signifcant amount of volume next season.

You can get there if you look at last years numbers and then make some assumptions on where they might go.

JAX was dead last in rushing attempts last year with 337. Meyer and Bevell both prefer to run a lot more than that. Let’s say they get to the league average. That puts them at 431 attempts, which is a +94 rushes.

Then let’s look at pass attempts. They had 616 last year where the league average is 563. We can guess that rushing attempts will gain at the expense of pass attempts, so put them at league average there too. That’s a 43/57 run/pass ratio - which is less than Meyer prefers but Bevell has been near that the past 3 years after a higher run ratio earlier with other teams. So the ratio and number of plays looks reasonable.

240 rushes for Robinson would leave 191 rushes for others. If Etienne is going to be a slash type player, 130 rushes is reasonable. That leaves 61 rushes for Lawrence, Shenault, and another RB. Again, not unreasonable.

If we take Coles, Conleys, and misc RB targets from last year we have a total of 203 targets difference. The less passing would account for 53 of them, leaving 153 targets. Let’s say Robinson gives up 20 targets - that keeps him at 40 targets and takes us up to 173 targets to divvy up. If Jones becomes the WR2 in this offense, he’d burn up somewhere near 80-90 of those targets, say 85, leaving 88 for Etienne if we leave TE and misc WR targets the same. If Etienne catches 75% of those because they are likely to be shorter, more easily completed targets and he should see coverage mismatches, that’s 66 completions.

So where we would be sitting between the RBs would be:

Robinson with 240 rushes, 30 catches for 270 touches.

Etienne would have 130 rushes and 66 catches for 199 touches.

Chark still gets near 90 targets, Shenault and Jones both around 80 targets.

That leaves enough offense for other players on the roster and gives Lawrence a decent amount of passes while fitting Meyer’s and Bevell’s desire to run the ball consistent with their histories but keeping in mind that the NFL is still a passing league.

This is a completely hypothetical exercise that could very well be completely wrong, but it shows that a team with this kind of hypothetical offense can get there.

[Cameron Giles]

You can get there if you look at last years numbers and then make some assumptions on where they might go.

JAX was dead last in rushing attempts last year with 337. Meyer and Bevell both prefer to run a lot more than that. Let’s say they get to the league average. That puts them at 431 attempts, which is a +94 rushes.

Jacksonville didn't run less because of philosophy; they ran less because of negative game script.

Opponents points per quarter for Jacksonville:

1st - 6.5 (30th)
2nd - 10.2 (32nd)
3rd - 7.8 (31st)
4th - 6.0 (10th)

Their defense didn't get much better, but the offense should be. Regardless, they'll still be playing from behind a lot. +94 in rushing attempts is extremely generous given the above.

Then let’s look at pass attempts. They had 616 last year where the league average is 563. We can guess that rushing attempts will gain at the expense of pass attempts, so put them at league average there too. That’s a 43/57 run/pass ratio - which is less than Meyer prefers but Bevell has been near that the past 3 years after a higher run ratio earlier with other teams. So the ratio and number of plays looks reasonable.

240 rushes for Robinson would leave 191 rushes for others. If Etienne is going to be a slash type player, 130 rushes is reasonable. That leaves 61 rushes for Lawrence, Shenault, and another RB. Again, not unreasonable.

Again, this is extremely generous considering Jacksonville has one of the worst defenses in the league. You can't expect to run more at the expense of passing if your defense can't get stops. You need positive game script.

If we take Coles, Conleys, and misc RB targets from last year we have a total of 203 targets difference. The less passing would account for 53 of them, leaving 153 targets. Let’s say Robinson gives up 20 targets - that keeps him at 40 targets and takes us up to 173 targets to divvy up. If Jones becomes the WR2 in this offense, he’d burn up somewhere near 80-90 of those targets, say 85, leaving 88 for Etienne if we leave TE and misc WR targets the same. If Etienne catches 75% of those because they are likely to be shorter, more easily completed targets and he should see coverage mismatches, that’s 66 completions.

So where we would be sitting between the RBs would be:

Robinson with 240 rushes, 30 catches for 270 touches.

Etienne would have 130 rushes and 66 catches for 199 touches.

Chark still gets near 90 targets, Shenault and Jones both around 80 targets.

That leaves enough offense for other players on the roster and gives Lawrence a decent amount of passes while fitting Meyer’s and Bevell’s desire to run the ball consistent with their histories but keeping in mind that the NFL is still a passing league.

This is a completely hypothetical exercise that could very well be completely wrong, but it shows that a team with this kind of hypothetical offense can get there.

Just so we're keeping score, you have

Robinson - 240 rushes
Etienne - 130 rushes (still not sure where this is coming from if Robinson is barely losing rushing volume.
Chark - 90 targets (even though he had 93 targets last season through 13 games)
Etienne - 88 targets
Jones - 80 targets
Shenault - 80 targets (even though he had 79 targets through 14 games)

So, you essentially have all the WRs either losing targets or not gaining targets to fit Etienne in, despite the upgrade at QB and the likelihood that they will have to pass to keep up in games.

It's certainly a very colorful outlook to say the least.

[Ice]

That pig picture needs Big Wings!

[Bronco Billy]

You can get there if you look at last years numbers and then make some assumptions on where they might go.

JAX was dead last in rushing attempts last year with 337. Meyer and Bevell both prefer to run a lot more than that. Let’s say they get to the league average. That puts them at 431 attempts, which is a +94 rushes.

Jacksonville didn't run less because of philosophy; they ran less because of negative game script.

Opponents points per quarter for Jacksonville:

1st - 6.5 (30th)
2nd - 10.2 (32nd)
3rd - 7.8 (31st)
4th - 6.0 (10th)

Their defense didn't get much better, but the offense should be. Regardless, they'll still be playing from behind a lot. +94 in rushing attempts is extremely generous given the above.

Then let’s look at pass attempts. They had 616 last year where the league average is 563. We can guess that rushing attempts will gain at the expense of pass attempts, so put them at league average there too. That’s a 43/57 run/pass ratio - which is less than Meyer prefers but Bevell has been near that the past 3 years after a higher run ratio earlier with other teams. So the ratio and number of plays looks reasonable.

240 rushes for Robinson would leave 191 rushes for others. If Etienne is going to be a slash type player, 130 rushes is reasonable. That leaves 61 rushes for Lawrence, Shenault, and another RB. Again, not unreasonable.

Again, this is extremely generous considering Jacksonville has one of the worst defenses in the league. You can't expect to run more at the expense of passing if your defense can't get stops. You need positive game script.

If we take Coles, Conleys, and misc RB targets from last year we have a total of 203 targets difference. The less passing would account for 53 of them, leaving 153 targets. Let’s say Robinson gives up 20 targets - that keeps him at 40 targets and takes us up to 173 targets to divvy up. If Jones becomes the WR2 in this offense, he’d burn up somewhere near 80-90 of those targets, say 85, leaving 88 for Etienne if we leave TE and misc WR targets the same. If Etienne catches 75% of those because they are likely to be shorter, more easily completed targets and he should see coverage mismatches, that’s 66 completions.

So where we would be sitting between the RBs would be:

Robinson with 240 rushes, 30 catches for 270 touches.

Etienne would have 130 rushes and 66 catches for 199 touches.

Chark still gets near 90 targets, Shenault and Jones both around 80 targets.

That leaves enough offense for other players on the roster and gives Lawrence a decent amount of passes while fitting Meyer’s and Bevell’s desire to run the ball consistent with their histories but keeping in mind that the NFL is still a passing league.

This is a completely hypothetical exercise that could very well be completely wrong, but it shows that a team with this kind of hypothetical offense can get there.

Just so we're keeping score, you have

Robinson - 240 rushes
Etienne - 130 rushes (still not sure where this is coming from if Robinson is barely losing rushing volume.
Chark - 90 targets (even though he had 93 targets last season through 13 games)
Etienne - 88 targets
Jones - 80 targets
Shenault - 80 targets (even though he had 79 targets through 14 games)

So, you essentially have all the WRs either losing targets or not gaining targets to fit Etienne in, despite the upgrade at QB and the likelihood that they will have to pass to keep up in games.

It's certainly a very colorful outlook to say the least.

No less colorful at this point than you thinking that Meyers and Bevell are going to throw the ball all over the field and forsake the running game. I’d love to see where you have anything that would support that notion.

[Ice]

Jacksonville just drafted one of the highest rated rookie Qb’s ever. He was drafted for his ability to deliver the ball on time and on target.

While the projections are an interesting exercise, Lawrence wasn’t drafted to throw less.

They are hoping for more offense overall not less.

The percentages may change some but given only 3 NFL teams ran more than they threw, expect that trend to continue.

One thing for certain, The odds that Robinson is the actual focal point of the offense is a reach. In fact they just spent massive draft capital to ensure otherwise.

[Cameron Giles]

No less colorful at this point than you thinking that Meyers and Bevell are going to throw the ball all over the field and forsake the running game. I’d love to see where you have anything that would support that notion.

I'm not saying they want to ignore the run game; I'm saying that when your defense can't get stops and you're constantly playing with negative game script, you simply don't have the opportunities to run the ball.

Here are the Bottom 10 teams last year in Point Differential

23. Carolina - (21st in rushing)
24. Giants - (26th in rushing)
25. Dallas - (15th in rushing)
26. Houston - (31st in rushing)
27. Philadelphia - (23rd in rushing)
28. Cincinnati - (17th in rushing)
29. Denver - (13th in rushing)
30. Detroit - (30th in rushing)
31. Jacksonville - (32nd in rushing)
32. Jets - (22nd in rushing)

Of the 10 worst teams in the league, 2 of them were at or above the league rushing average: Denver (+11) and Dallas (-1). The other 8 are far below. So again, assuming a +94 boost for them to even get to a league average rushing attack with a defense that is still awful, seems awfully generous.

Mike Clay has Etienne and Robinson with a near split of carries at <200 a piece. That seems a lot more realistic than assuming that Robinson is only going to lose 2 carries per game on average.

[Bronco Billy]

No less colorful at this point than you thinking that Meyers and Bevell are going to throw the ball all over the field and forsake the running game. I’d love to see where you have anything that would support that notion.

I'm not saying they want to ignore the run game; I'm saying that when your defense can't get stops and you're constantly playing with negative game script, you simply don't have the opportunities to run the ball.

Here are the Bottom 10 teams last year in Point Differential

23. Carolina - (21st in rushing)
24. Giants - (26th in rushing)
25. Dallas - (15th in rushing)
26. Houston - (31st in rushing)
27. Philadelphia - (23rd in rushing)
28. Cincinnati - (17th in rushing)
29. Denver - (13th in rushing)
30. Detroit - (30th in rushing)
31. Jacksonville - (32nd in rushing)
32. Jets - (22nd in rushing)

Of the 10 worst teams in the league, 2 of them were at or above the league rushing average: Denver (+11) and Dallas (-1). The other 8 are far below. So again, assuming a +94 boost for them to even get to a league average rushing attack with a defense that is still awful, seems awfully generous.

Mike Clay has Etienne and Robinson with a near split of carries at <200 a piece. That seems a lot more realistic than assuming that Robinson is only going to lose 2 carries per game on average.

Of course it’s a generous guess. Because that’s all any of us are doing is guessing. But Meyer has repeatable coaching philosophies and so does Bevell. One thing they have in common is running power to set up the passing game.

I also know that one of the best ways to protect a weak defense is to control the clock and the tempo of the game. More time of possession and fewer clock stoppages because of incomplete passes means your D is on the field less and for shorter intervals.

Then you add in Meyer’s love of a stud RB/WR hybrid to go with a hammer getting work in the backfield and mixing in the hybrid slash for some rushes and that’s where I’m setting the foundation of my guessing. Doesn’t mean that it’s anything more than a guess, but at least it’s founded on some logical assumptions.

[MFundercover]

Urban Meyer gets a 0/10 in his first offseason to say the least. This team is going to win 3 games again next season when they were in position for rapid improvement. This isnt Ohio State, it's the NFL.

[ThunderTung]

This thread has gotten really weird. Seems like a lot of Robinson owners are taking the ETN pick really hard. Almost like Urban Meyer walked up to you individually and told you to go F yourself as he was turning the card in.

I'll say this. If your a Robinson owner and your upset. Just remember that your either probably still ahead significantly on your initial investment or you learned that you shouldn't make trades between the end of the season and the draft.

If you bought Robinson mid season last year, then that sucks, but that's fantasy football baby, sometimes we buy or sell and just get unlucky. If it makes you feel any better just remember I sold like $50 worth of Dogecoins a year and a half ago... which roughly comes out to about $10k today...so it could always be worse!