The Overall Production Value of a Rookie Class - Parts 1, 1a and 2 (2 yet to be posted)

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The Overall Production Value of a Rookie Class - Parts 1, 1a and 2 (2 yet to be posted)

Postby ArrylT » Sun May 16, 2021 2:37 pm

So as you may recall, and here is a link to refresh:

viewtopic.php?f=5&t=213872

I am pretty intrigued to see how the 2021 class will perform long-term.

However I asked myself a question - how exactly can we compare a rookie class to determine its value comparatively to other classes. So I set out to find out if I could come up with an answer. Note not THE answer, just an answer

I decided on a 2 prong approach

(a) How many times did you want a player from a rookie class in your lineup

ie - how often did he perform enough to be in the starting lineup
Please note that I did not subjectively determine whether an owner would have put him in their lineup - just if their production would have placed them in the top 5 / 12 / 24 / 36 / 50 depending on their position

(b) How many times did you want a player from a rookie class on your roster

ie - how many times did he finish high enough in the standings to warrant staying on your roster / garnering trade offers / not being a roster clogger / etc.

I have now completed Part 1 of this 2 part approach. Further I have even done a more in depth approach for the last 4 rookie classes - 2017-18-19-20. More on that in a moment.

I compiled the data from FBG, which conveniently records top 5/10/12/15/20/24/30/36/50. I went back as far as 2002. With 2001 being the current rookie class, and the one I am interested in having a baseline to compare it to - I felt 20 years made sense.

Quarterbacks I recorded top 5 / 12 / 24

Running Backs I recorded top 5 / 12 / 24 / 36

Tight Ends I recorded top 5 / 12

Wide Receivers I recorded top 5 / 12 / 24 / 50

Why the differences per position?

QB was to acknowledge the value of QB in SF, how a QB2 week wont hurt your team - but it wont really "help" either.

RB went to 36 to project start 2-4 with flex

WR went to 50 to project start 3-5 with flex

TE went to 12 because as previously noted (see Kyle Pitts Thread), even a top 12 TE rarely meets more than top 50 WR when compared directly.

Originally I scored all as follows

18 points for top 5
9 points for top 12
3 points for top 24
1 point for top 36/50

However I made 2 adjustments (while also keeping the original formula)

(a) I nudged top 24 QB down to 1 point, as most 1 QB leagues only interested in QB 1 performance

(b) I cut TE points by at least half so 9/3 instead of 18/9, to recognize the difference between them and WR.

It wouldnt affect the value of the TEs when compared against each other. And keeping the original scoring, allows for the greater value of TE in 2 TE / TE premium scoring (1.5 and higher).

But overall I felt this formula allowed for a balance between long term production, and the historical preference by owners for RB/WR.

So now I have a baseline by which 2021 class can be measured. In my next few posts I will share some tidbits of what Part 1 has determined (for me). And go into the more indepth comparison for 2017-2020 classes.

I am fully aware we all value players, and production from positions, differently, but I do hope that this balanced approach will give you some insight, as a whole, on how different rookie classes are valuable.

Oh and yeah, the database is in excel format and can be obtained (free) by sending me a DM with an e-mail. Just be patient as I may not reply daily.
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

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Re: The Overall Production Value of a Rookie Class - Parts 1, 1a and 2 (2 yet to be posted)

Postby ArrylT » Sun May 16, 2021 3:08 pm

The database I have built was designed to capture the data from the classes entire career. As such I did not look into a players value for a specific year. IE I did not look to see how well 2007 RBs did in say 2010 or 2011. Rather, my interest, since this is dynasty, has always been more on long-term production, rather than short-term.

However since the previous 4 rookie classes are still in, or just ending their rookie deals, with the end of 2020, I decided why not look at the year by year progress & production of each class. Obviously I will have incomplete data for the more recent classes (2019/20) , but as I will be following the 2021 class for years to come, and will be updating the database on a yearly basis, as players retire/ add more production, it made sense, and allowed me a recent bell curve by which to monitor the 2021 class vs.

As such I can now compare 2021 (in a few years) to the retired classes, and at the same time compare its production versus the 4 more recent classes.

Anyways so just to clarify - basically for those 4 classes, I did do a year by year analysis of each position.

So 2017 I have 2017/2018/2019/2020, while obviously for 2020 I only have 2020.

Here are some interesting facts.

(a) The 2019 Rookie WRs had a strong WR breakout in their rookie year than any of the other 4 classes.

(b) The 2 year production by the 2019 WRis better than any of the other 2 classes.

(c) The 2019 WR class is currently on pace to match the production of the 2014 WR class of the past 7 years.

So basically if you got out of the 2019 draft picks and went to 2018 or 2020 needing WR - welp you may have goofed.

(d) The 2017 Class, not the 2020 class, deserves the title of the Greatest Rookie Class in recent history

How so?

The 2017 RBs alone in 4 years have outproduced all other RB classes from 2002 forward, save 1, for their ENTIRE CAREER. The 2017 RB Class is on pace to become the greatest RB class ever.

Best RB Class production over past 4 years for a 1 year period?

2017 class in 2018
2017 class in 2019
2017 class in 2020
2017 class in 2017
2018 class in 2019
2020 class in 2020

(e) strongest rookie year as a class as a whole? 2017

And this is with the TE/WRs being considered a "disappointmet" - however looking at the TE/WR class in terms of actual production rather than hype shows that they are doing pretty well for themselves.

The 2017 TE class has already passed the entire production of at least 8-10 classes, and as we know TEs are slow to develop, and in 1-2 years will be in the top 5 for TE production.

The 2017 class as a whole in 4 years has done what the 2007 class (see next post) did for their entire career.

The one hiccup at QB, Deshaun Watson, if we follow what happened with Peterson, Hunt, Hill and/or Elliott with their off-field worries, should be back adding to the 2017 QB production by 2022 or 2023 at the latest. Meanwhile Mahomes will shoulder the load for a brief period.

The 2017 WR Class tied the 2020 WR class in production in 2020 and after a rough start in 2017 had had 3 straight years of solid WR production, similar in terms to the other 3 classes.

(f) This could be a make or break year for 2018 class, as the WRs & RBs are in a bit of a holding pattern & the top guys will find out if they get that 5 year extension or 2nd contract with the same team.

In the end the barometers to which the 2021 Class will be measured will be

2014 WR Class
2017 RB Class
2004 QB Class
2013 TE Class
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

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Re: The Overall Production Value of a Rookie Class - Parts 1, 1a and 2 (2 yet to be posted)

Postby ArrylT » Sun May 16, 2021 3:17 pm

Now for some fun - top 5 per position, and bottom 3 QB first (the rest later tonight).

Best QB Classes

2004 - 3 QBs with 1000 points of production Big Ben / Rivers / Eli
2012 - Russell Wilson has shouldered the load left him by Luck but Cousins and Tanny could make this the #1 class if they keep it up
2005 - Aaron Rodgers
2003 - Palmer / Romo
2011 - Newton has 1000 points of production despite recent year struggles

(2017 QB Class may reach top 5 for overall production in as early as 3-4 years)

Worst QB Classes

2013 - Geno Smith (only qb with 100 points of production)
2010 - Sam Bradford (only QB with 200+ production points)
2007 - JaMarcus Russell (was 5th most valuable QB)
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

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Re: The Overall Production Value of a Rookie Class - Parts 1, 1a and 2 (2 yet to be posted)

Postby mls » Sun May 16, 2021 3:39 pm

I don't post a lot. But I want to say thank you for presenting your research. I find things like this helpful in their own way. And I will not see this anywhere else.

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Re: The Overall Production Value of a Rookie Class - Parts 1, 1a and 2 (2 yet to be posted)

Postby Shoreline Steamers » Sun May 16, 2021 4:16 pm

Cool idea here ArrlT, and an interesting way to try and determine which classes have produced the most production. While this isn't going to be predictive of future success, it will allow us to see how the rookies we pick in 2021 stack up over time to previous classes.

2021 WR should be an especially interesting group to monitor since so many of the options lack prototypical size. But does that mean they won't be productive? Guess we'll know more in a couple of years, and be able to compare them to the WR's who played before them.

Nice work. :thumbup:
14 Team, No-PPR, 20 Man Roster, TD Heavy, TD = 6, FG = 3, Start: QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, Flex, K, D
QB: L. Jackson, B. Purdy, T. Lance
RB: J. Mixon, N. Chubb, A. Dillon, J. Cook, K. Mitchell, J. McLaughlin, Z. Evans
WR: J. Chase, C. Godwin, D. Johnson, J. Reed, C. Tillman
TE: TJ Hockenson, D. Njoku, B. Jordan

14 Team, .5 PPR, 18 Man Roster, Rush/Rec TD = 6, Pass TD = 4, FG = 3, Start: QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, Flex, K, D
QB: L. Jackson, T. Tagovailoa
RB: B. Robinson, K. Walker, R. Stevenson, K. Herbertl
WR: C. Olave, T. Higgins, B. Aiyuk, N. Collins, Z. Flowers, M. Mims
TE: K. Pitts, D. Njoku

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Re: The Overall Production Value of a Rookie Class - Parts 1, 1a and 2 (2 yet to be posted)

Postby ArrylT » Sun May 16, 2021 7:13 pm

Shoreline Steamers wrote: Sun May 16, 2021 4:16 pm Cool idea here ArrlT, and an interesting way to try and determine which classes have produced the most production. While this isn't going to be predictive of future success, it will allow us to see how the rookies we pick in 2021 stack up over time to previous classes.

2021 WR should be an especially interesting group to monitor since so many of the options lack prototypical size. But does that mean they won't be productive? Guess we'll know more in a couple of years, and be able to compare them to the WR's who played before them.

Nice work. :thumbup:
That is what I think as well. I doubt it will be too helpful when making individual player decisions - however I hope it can be helpful in giving you an idea of what production can be gotten from a class depending on the type of players.
mls wrote: Sun May 16, 2021 3:39 pm I don't post a lot. But I want to say thank you for presenting your research. I find things like this helpful in their own way. And I will not see this anywhere else.
No problem. Dont forget, when you get a chance to DM me - it will be a lot easier to review in excel format than in what I will share on the forum (apart from only being tidbits lol).

Each class will have a separate tab, and each skill position will be color coded & listed in order of NFL Draft capital (but UDFAs of note will be listed also). Furthermore if an owner disagrees with the scoring, since the # of weeks is already compiled, they can make an alteration to the scoring formula and edit the players scores without too much work (couple of hours I would estimate).
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

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Re: The Overall Production Value of a Rookie Class - Parts 1, 1a and 2 (2 yet to be posted)

Postby ArrylT » Sun May 16, 2021 7:32 pm

ArrylT wrote: Sun May 16, 2021 3:17 pm Now for some fun - top 5 per position, and bottom 3 QB first (the rest later tonight).

Best QB Classes

2004 - 3 QBs with 1000 points of production Big Ben / Rivers / Eli
2012 - Russell Wilson has shouldered the load left him by Luck but Cousins and Tanny could make this the #1 class if they keep it up
2005 - Aaron Rodgers
2003 - Palmer / Romo
2011 - Newton has 1000 points of production despite recent year struggles

(2017 QB Class may reach top 5 for overall production in as early as 3-4 years)

Worst QB Classes

2013 - Geno Smith (only qb with 100 points of production)
2010 - Sam Bradford (only QB with 200+ production points)
2007 - JaMarcus Russell (was 5th most valuable QB)
Best TE Classes

2013 TE Class - Travis Kelce (deemed by the formula the most valuable 2013 rookie - Hopkins #2)
2003 TE Class - Antonio Gates / Witten
2010 TE Class - Gronkowski / Graham (imagine what could have been if Hernandez & Reed has been full career)
2006 TE Class - V. Davis / D. Walker
2002 TE Class - Jeremy Shockey / Randy McMichael

As previously mentioned the 2017 class should reach top 5 - hopefully by 2023 or 2024 at the latest - depending on a few factors

Worst TE Classes

2012 TE Class - Coby Fleener / Ladarius Green heh
2005 TE Class - Heath Miller was criminally underused
2011 TE Class - Kyle Rudolph lone bright spot

You can see that 2 of the worst classes were bookended by 2 of the best - reinforcing the cylical nature of the NFL

Note - both 2010 & 2013 are still active and obviously accumulating production making it likely they'll be the top 2 classes for the foreseeable future (ie 5-7 years)
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

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Re: The Overall Production Value of a Rookie Class - Parts 1, 1a and 2 (2 yet to be posted)

Postby ArrylT » Sun May 16, 2021 7:57 pm

ArrylT wrote: Sun May 16, 2021 7:32 pm Best TE Classes

2013 TE Class - Travis Kelce (deemed by the formula the most valuable 2013 rookie - Hopkins #2)
2003 TE Class - Antonio Gates / Witten
2010 TE Class - Gronkowski / Graham (imagine what could have been if Hernandez & Reed has been full career)
2006 TE Class - V. Davis / D. Walker
2002 TE Class - Jeremy Shockey / Randy McMichael

As previously mentioned the 2017 class should reach top 5 - hopefully by 2023 or 2024 at the latest - depending on a few factors

Worst TE Classes

2012 TE Class - Coby Fleener / Ladarius Green heh
2005 TE Class - Heath Miller was criminally underused
2011 TE Class - Kyle Rudolph lone bright spot

You can see that 2 of the worst classes were bookended by 2 of the best - reinforcing the cylical nature of the NFL

Note - both 2010 & 2013 are still active and obviously accumulating production making it likely they'll be the top 2 classes for the foreseeable future (ie 5-7 years)
Best WR Classes

2010 WR Class - Antonio Brown / D. Thomas / Dez Bryant / E. Sanders / G. Tate (and briefly UDFA Victor Cruz)
2014 WR Class - There are still 10 WRs active from this class, making very likely it reaches the #1 spot. It is 400+ points ahead of all earlier fully retired classed
2011 WR Class - AJ Green / Julio Jones / Baldwin / Cobb (yes he is still around)
2004 WR Class - Larry Fitzgerald (one of the few non QBs to have accrued over 1000 points of production)
2003 WR Class - Andre Johnson / Anquan Boldin

Worst WR Classes

2002 WR Class - no obvious duds but just a bunch of WRs with short average careers
2005 WR Class - Not a bad class but only Roddy White / Vincent Jackson as real long-term producers
2007 WR Class - saved by Brandon Marshall & Marquess Colston

Again the weaker classes seem cyclical around the elite 2003/2004 Classes (but fading due to the rise of the new elite classes)


Larry Fitzgerald data (1084 production points):

27 top 5 finishes = 486 points
42 top 12 (not counting the top 5 so 69 overall) = 378 points
122 top 50 (not counting the top 12) = 220 points
191 times you wanted him or could use him in your lineup - an average of 12 times a year for 16 years.

Note: top 50 might not sound like much - but was usually a 9-10 point floor for points.
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

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Re: The Overall Production Value of a Rookie Class - Parts 1, 1a and 2 (2 yet to be posted)

Postby ArrylT » Sun May 16, 2021 8:28 pm

ArrylT wrote: Sun May 16, 2021 7:57 pm Best WR Classes

2010 WR Class - Antonio Brown / D. Thomas / Dez Bryant / E. Sanders / G. Tate (and briefly UDFA Victor Cruz)
2014 WR Class - There are still 10 WRs active from this class, making very likely it reaches the #1 spot. It is 400+ points ahead of all earlier fully retired classed
2011 WR Class - AJ Green / Julio Jones / Baldwin / Cobb (yes he is still around)
2004 WR Class - Larry Fitzgerald (one of the few non QBs to have accrued over 1000 points of production)
2003 WR Class - Andre Johnson / Anquan Boldin

Worst WR Classes

2002 WR Class - no obvious duds but just a bunch of WRs with short average careers
2005 WR Class - Not a bad class but only Roddy White / Vincent Jackson as real long-term producers
2007 WR Class - saved by Brandon Marshall & Marquess Colston

Again the weaker classes seem cyclical around the elite 2003/2004 Classes (but fading due to the rise of the new elite classes)


Larry Fitzgerald data (1084 production points):

27 top 5 finishes = 486 points
42 top 12 (not counting the top 5 so 69 overall) = 378 points
122 top 50 (not counting the top 12) = 220 points
191 times you wanted him or could use him in your lineup - an average of 12 times a year for 16 years.

Note: top 50 might not sound like much - but was usually a 9-10 point floor for points.
Best RB Classes

2008 Class - 12 RBs reached 200+ production points but Forte/Chris Johnson/Jamaal Charles were league winners and each had 25-27 top 5 finishes in their career (remember RB careers tend to be the shortest of all 4 skill positions)
2017 Class - Already!!!
2007 Class - Adrian Peterson / Marshawn Lynch
2005 Class - Frank Gore (basically worth more than 3 any other backs in his class)
2015 Class - The 2015 Class was what the 2011 class was to the WRs - a harbringer of what was to come (ie 2015 was the announcement that a class like 2017 could be coming while 2011 announced the possibility of a 2014)

Worst RB Classes

2012 Class - Wave if you remember Trent Richardson
2010 Class - UDFA Lagarette Blount was the best of this class
2014 Class - Devonta Freeman basically saved this class from being the worst RB Class of the past 20 years

Are you wondering where 2016 is? Sorry its already better than 2010 & 2012 and Zeke & Derek Henry are likely to add a couple of more years of 80-100 production points each. The 2016 WRs have a slim chance, once they retire, of finishing bottom 3 - but not likely as the are already closing in on 2000 production points and still have over 12 active WRs.

Note: In 2020 Only 2 RBs had more than 4 top 5 finishes. So it is not like RBs routinely lock in top 5 finishes. Top 12 yes. Matt Forte had 62 top 12 finishes over his career - and only LeSean McCoy had more during the exact same timeframe (2008-2017).

Note 2: Adrian Peterson is the only non QB apart from Fitzgerald & Frank Gore to compile over 1000 production points and has 1250 (and thats with missing basically 3 full seasons 180 gp out of 224 possible)

Note 3: Frank Gore has played in 241 NFL games and has been an RB2 or better in 133 of them (55%). He was 1 yard away from having 16 consecutive 600 yard seasons.
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

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Re: The Overall Production Value of a Rookie Class - Parts 1, 1a and 2 (2 yet to be posted)

Postby ArrylT » Sun May 16, 2021 9:02 pm

ArrylT wrote: Sun May 16, 2021 8:28 pm Best RB Classes

2008 Class - 12 RBs reached 200+ production points but Forte/Chris Johnson/Jamaal Charles were league winners and each had 25-27 top 5 finishes in their career (remember RB careers tend to be the shortest of all 4 skill positions)
2017 Class - Already!!!
2007 Class - Adrian Peterson / Marshawn Lynch
2005 Class - Frank Gore (basically worth more than 3 any other backs in his class)
2015 Class - The 2015 Class was what the 2011 class was to the WRs - a harbringer of what was to come (ie 2015 was the announcement that a class like 2017 could be coming while 2011 announced the possibility of a 2014)

Worst RB Classes

2012 Class - Wave if you remember Trent Richardson
2010 Class - UDFA Lagarette Blount was the best of this class
2014 Class - Devonta Freeman basically saved this class from being the worst RB Class of the past 20 years

Are you wondering where 2016 is? Sorry its already better than 2010 & 2012 and Zeke & Derek Henry are likely to add a couple of more years of 80-100 production points each. The 2016 WRs have a slim chance, once they retire, of finishing bottom 3 - but not likely as the are already closing in on 2000 production points and still have over 12 active WRs.

Note: In 2020 Only 2 RBs had more than 4 top 5 finishes. So it is not like RBs routinely lock in top 5 finishes. Top 12 yes. Matt Forte had 62 top 12 finishes over his career - and only LeSean McCoy had more during the exact same timeframe (2008-2017).

Note 2: Adrian Peterson is the only non QB apart from Fitzgerald & Frank Gore to compile over 1000 production points and has 1250 (and thats with missing basically 3 full seasons 180 gp out of 224 possible)

Note 3: Frank Gore has played in 241 NFL games and has been an RB2 or better in 133 of them (55%). He was 1 yard away from having 16 consecutive 600 yard seasons.

Best Classes for overall depth / balance. IE remembered for more than just being 1 skill position heavy.

2008 Class - While the RBs did the heavy lifting, you also have Matt Ryan, Jordy Nelson, DeSean Jackson as long-term producers and came close with 1 TE (Martellius Bennett was hit/miss). If you were a Zero QBer Flacco was your name-o. Jermichael Finley what could have been.

2005 Class - Alex Smith & Fitzmagic another pair of Zero QB favorites, 5 RBs with 300+ production points after Gore, the consistent but rarely elite Heath Miller, amd some UDFA wonderkin in Lance Moore and Nate Washington - but of course it is Aaron Rodgers hoisting this class into the top 5.

2004 Class - While its total score was less than 2008, it was only by a few hundred points. Apart from 3 QBs and Fitzgerald, you also had Steven Jackson, Michael Turner, Chris Cooley & Wes Welker with extended spells and a lot of guys with 2-3 year spurts.

2003 Class - Apart from providing the Cowboys with a fan favorite QB this class and the 2 elite TEs to go with Andre Johnson, there were some nice RBs in McGahee, Larry Johnson and the surprisingly underrated Fred Jackson (51 RB2 or better appearances). Dallas Clark was short but very very sweet (3 top 3 seasons).

2011 Class - This class wont be in the top 5 for much longer but did have elite players at 3 of 4 skill spots plus a magical season from Julius Thomas, and the occasionally good Kyle Rudolph at TE. Oh and that 1 year from Terelle Pryor. Basically the epitome of good all across the board. However the injuries have taken their toll on guys like Newton, AJ Green, and the production is almost done apart from Julio? Expect one of 2012/13/14 to surpass it within 1-2 years and 2017 by 2024.

Top non QB Skill player from each class:

2002 - Clinton Portis
2003 - Antonio Gates
2004 - Larry Fitzgerald
2005 - Frank Gore
2006 - Brandon Marshall
2007 - Adrian Peterson
2008 - Matt Forte
2009 - LeSean McCoy
2010 - Antonio Brown (Gronkowski in TE premium scoring formula)
2011 - Julio Jones
2012 - T.Y. Hilton
2013 - Travis Kelce
2014 - Mike Evans
2015 - Todd Gurley
2016 - Ezekiel Elliott
2017 - Alvin Kamara
2018 - Nick Chubb
2019 - Josh Jacobs
2020 - James Robinson

(not that I could remove him from the class but if I did the 2020 RBs would have been outscored by the 2019 & 2018 RBs and not just the 2017 RBs)


Worst 3 Classes of the past 20 years

2007 Class - The only class to fail to reach 8000 total production points. Calvin Johnson retiring early killed its chances due to the lack of elite WR (Dwayne Bowe was #2), the long road it took Greg Olsen to be relevant, and very little RB depth after the big 2. Oh and yeah the QBs were awful awful awful.

2002 Class - No long term QB contribution. Only David Garrard had 200+ QB points. Apart from Brian Westbrook and Clinton Portis the well was dry at RB save for perhaps Chester Taylor. Deion Branch was its best WR. Jeremy Shockey outscored all the WRs, and he was not a long career TE.

2006 Class - Jay Cutler was the QB of note. MJD and DeAngelo Williams sort of distracted that Reggie Bush never lived up to the hype. Vernon Davis did not deserve to have that string of horrendous QB play.

Note: Classes with dual elite RBs seem to be prone at having little depth elsewhere.


QBs who threw to V Davis:

The bad Alex Smith (pre KC days)
Trent Dilfer
Shaun Hill
JT O'Sullivan
Troy Smith
Colin Kaepernick
Blaine Gabbert
Brock Osweiler
2015 Peyton Manning
then 2 years of Kirk Cousins (so yeah Kirk Cousins was his best QB)
Then 2018 and like 4-5 QBs played QB for the Redskins

Yet still some how was top 10 all-time in TE yardage (til Kelce passed him in 2020).
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

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Re: The Overall Production Value of a Rookie Class - Parts 1, 1a and 2 (2 yet to be posted)

Postby Anteaters » Mon May 17, 2021 3:23 am

Shoreline Steamers wrote: Sun May 16, 2021 4:16 pm Cool idea here ArrlT ...
Nice work. :thumbup:
Ditto! Thanks!
TEAM 1:
12 Team ppr w/20 keepers - start 1QB 2RB 3WR 1TE 1FLX 6IDP 1DEF
QB: Tua, Lamar, Levis
RB: Etienne, Pacheco, JavonteWms, JFord, CEH
WR: Lamb, JChase, Waddle, Pickens, Tre Tucker, Q Johnston
TE: Goedert, Friermuth
DEF: Cowboys, Ravens
IDP:(LB) Bolton, Greenlaw; (DE/DL) ZCollins, BJHill; (S/CB) Pitre, Bates, Witherspoon
IR: Mike Williams (WR), Joey Bosa (DL)
2023 & 2022 Champion: 2020 third place: 2019 Champion

TEAM 2:
14 Team 30roster SF/ppr/TEP - QB/RB/WR/TE/5FLX/SF
QB: Tua, CJStroud, Carr, AOC, MWhite, Lock
RB: Etienne, Stevenson, GusE, AJD, Singletary, CEH, Spiller
WR: Amon-Ra, Kirk, Dell, Thielen, Gallup, Ch Jones
TE: Andrews, Waller, Taysom, Smythe, WMallory, JOliver
2023 semifinals loser

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Re: The Overall Production Value of a Rookie Class - Parts 1, 1a and 2 (2 yet to be posted)

Postby ArrylT » Mon May 17, 2021 7:40 am

So what does this all mean for the 2021 class (and other recent classes)?

Well basically the best class (2008) outscored the worst class (2007) by 4000 production points. So an elite class is going to have to dominate a weak class, and score a minimum of 11 000 points over the course of the classes careers.

2017 has already passed 2007 in terms of production, and 2014 will do so this year. 2015 (behind by 1200 points) & 2016 (2000) are not too far behind and should do so soon. Each of those classes still have 30 odd players in skill positions still active in the NFL. All of those classes are safe bets to reach 8000, 9000 and probably 10 000 points. 11 000 is the goal for the elite classes. Btw with Matt Ryan in the 2008 Class expect 12 000 to be the new bar after 2021.

Basically it would seem in order to be a elite class you need to reach the 7000+ production level by the end of the rookie contracts (Year 4/5). Then it will depend on the # of players who have gotten second contracts / extensions as to how dominant you'll remain.

Good classes will be in the 6000+ point range.

Average or worse classes will be in the 5000 and below range.

The greatest class (2008) has ended up with an average of 1000 points a year (it still has 6 active class members as an fyi). The drop off begins after the rookie contract (going from 60+ players to about the 30-35 range. The next drop off is another 3-4 years later when it goes to 12 or less. IE 2013/14 classes had around 25 active skill players (on my list) in the NFL but 2012 had 12.

Btw the ONLY classes that are completely retired are 2002/03 - all the other older classes still have a few guys hanging around - the elite guys like Gore/Fitzgerald/Peterman or long career TE/QB guys. The next class to be fully retired is likely 2006 as it only has 1 active player left (Marcedes Lewis). So it is pretty much cemented as a bottom 3 class in terms of dynasty value.

The class to monitor closely this year is the 2018 class. It is currently at 4300 odd points (1450ish a year average so far). It really needs a full season from Barkley and the other RBs - remember it was supposed to be 8 deep at the top and then loaded with depth options (Lindsay has passed 100, Gus Edwards or Jeff Wilson could). Well only Barkley & Chubb have crossed the 200 point threshold so far*. And improvement from the WRs. The QBs and help from the TEs will keep this class well clear from the bottom 3 - but it is currently on a trajectory of average at best.

Basically it is beginning to feel that if a class has only 1-2 elite names that dominate the discussion - the rest of the class risks suffering in the shadows - and if those names do not live up to the hype, or stick around - the class itself will be hindered. What you need are a few guys (like in 2016 with Tyreek Hill, Michael Thomas, Dak Prescott) who have chips on their shoulder to carry some of the load.

A Class with 1 name locked in at 1.01 for the entire off-season and 3-4 QBs & a group of WRs all combating for who is best after the 1.01 - guess what class fits that moniker?

2012

It took Russell Wilson (he's got 1200 production points+) to keep that class out of the bottom 3 consideration.

Another way to look at this? Take a look at the top 4 rounds of ADP and count the # of 2018 guys. I think there are 4? And this class is only 3 years old.

I am not saying it is doom & gloom - just that this is a pivotal year for 2018 rookies. They have 3 classes behind them making names for themselves (or about to) and their 2nd contracts to secure. A rough year for the class as a whole will change its trajectory from potentially good to mediocre/average.

Monitor those 2018 players carefully.

As for 2021 - we want

1200+ production points Year 1
2800+ after Year 2
4400+ after Year 3
6000+ leaving the rookie years

If it is to be in consideration for one of the best classes of the past 20 years.

* - Most fantasy players with long term value will be 350-500, then you have 500-700, 700-1000, and the GOAT guys with 1000+ like Fitzgerald, Gore & such (Kelce should reach 1000).
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

jordanzs
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Re: The Overall Production Value of a Rookie Class - Parts 1, 1a and 2 (2 yet to be posted)

Postby jordanzs » Mon May 17, 2021 11:15 am

How about the 1st round skill players from the 2009 NFL draft class?

In 2010 startups, it sure looked like the previous year's draft was treasure chest of long term dynasty potential. Too bad injuries & reality got in the way of many of them:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_NFL_Draft

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ArrylT
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Re: The Overall Production Value of a Rookie Class - Parts 1, 1a and 2 (2 yet to be posted)

Postby ArrylT » Mon May 17, 2021 12:39 pm

jordanzs wrote: Mon May 17, 2021 11:15 am How about the 1st round skill players from the 2009 NFL draft class?

In 2010 startups, it sure looked like the previous year's draft was treasure chest of long term dynasty potential. Too bad injuries & reality got in the way of many of them:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_NFL_Draft
Yeah that was an interesting class to review. To be absolutely honest the 2009 class tied the 2004 class for 5th overall in best WRs, but I have it to 2003 for being older and having the 2 studs in Andre Johnson & Anquan Boldin.

Here are the WRs from the 2009 class that passed 200 production points

Crabtree
Maclin
Harvin
Nicks
Britt (barely)
Wallace
Edelman

Brian Hartline also had 2 1k seasons, but the rest of his career pretty much never passed 600 yards. He also had very little red zone love so few big games (14 TDs for his entire career and just 3 top 12 finishes), and as a result his score suffered.
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

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Re: The Overall Production Value of a Rookie Class - Parts 1, 1a and 2 (2 yet to be posted)

Postby Ice » Tue May 18, 2021 8:44 am

Great Thread and Great Work ArryIT. (Love the History)

I look forward to the annual add on of classes to see how they stack up. Not that I am trying to create more work for you or anything in the future! :thumbup:
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