Trey Sermon

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Re: Trey Sermon

Postby OhCruelestRanter » Wed May 05, 2021 8:21 pm

Hottoddies wrote: Wed May 05, 2021 8:08 pm This is one of the most ridicules arguments ever. Ice is saying that 10 yard split quickness is a highly desirable trait for a RB. I totally agree. I believe most reasonable people, including Dynasty DeLorean, would agree. However, what Dynasty Delorean is saying, is that no matter how value those numbers are, those numbers can't be trusted to be accurate. Due to the ambiguous start time, short distance, and different timing methods; I believe this may be true as well. It is in the realm of possibilities for both positions to be true at the same time. I don't think anyone is disagreeing with you on this one , Ice.

edit: other than the CruelestRanter ... but that's what he does
Neither of you have any evidence that it matters, or how much. If you do, I’d like to see it. If you don’t, you should stop suggesting it matters.

Why is “we should focus on things that actually correlate with success” such a controversial idea?

Thanks for calling me out though. That felt necessary.
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Re: Trey Sermon

Postby OhCruelestRanter » Wed May 05, 2021 8:23 pm

Ice wrote: Wed May 05, 2021 7:49 pm
OhCruelestRanter wrote: Wed May 05, 2021 7:29 pm
Ice wrote: Wed May 05, 2021 7:12 pm

You're such a troll.

No one claimed this has anything to do with fantasy success.
I do stand by that the 49's love his 1st step quickness and it was a big reason they moved up significantly to acquire the player.

Here is a quote from the 49's GM

https://www.49erswebzone.com/articles/1 ... ck-sermon/
…this is a fantasy football site, no? Why mention metrics that aren’t predictive? It’s useless, and a waste of everybody’s time. You could replace 10 yard splint with “number of consonants in his middle name” and it would be just as relevant to the discussion of Sermon on a fantasy football website.

But here: There’s no evidence that 10 yard splits matter for RBs in fantasy football or in the NFL. If you can prove that I’m wrong, great. I’d like to learn something. If you can’t, (spoiler: you can’t) you should stop wasting time with useless information and relying on name calling when somebody disagrees with you.
This thread is about a RB.

It isn't your place to determine what is discussed. The fact he was selected well ahead of where many believed and the price paid by the team does show the team is interested in the player and will most likely use him which is fantasy relevant.

Why a team selects a player will provide the more experienced players in fantasy some insight in how they may utilize a player which may help the owner in where the player ultimately gets ranked.

If you don't want to read it then don't but believe it or not many would rather read a take about why a team may like a player than reading drivel from some poster asking permission to speak.
Again, more personal insults. I don’t know why you’re angry at me. I’m not the one who called you “dense.”

If you can’t demonstrate that something matters, you shouldn’t use it to support an argument. That shouldn’t be a controversial statement, but here we are.

The best thing about not having the combine was not having to listen to pages of people pretending that the three cone matters for RBs.
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Re: Trey Sermon

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Wed May 05, 2021 10:38 pm

Hottoddies wrote: Wed May 05, 2021 8:08 pm This is one of the most ridicules arguments ever.
It’s bizarre, to say the least. The irony of all of this is I do agree with him that a faster 10 yard split is more desirable, in theory. But he’s comparing apples to bananas.

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Re: Trey Sermon

Postby Hottoddies » Wed May 05, 2021 10:47 pm

OhCruelestRanter wrote: Wed May 05, 2021 8:21 pm
Hottoddies wrote: Wed May 05, 2021 8:08 pm This is one of the most ridicules arguments ever. Ice is saying that 10 yard split quickness is a highly desirable trait for a RB. I totally agree. I believe most reasonable people, including Dynasty DeLorean, would agree. However, what Dynasty Delorean is saying, is that no matter how value those numbers are, those numbers can't be trusted to be accurate. Due to the ambiguous start time, short distance, and different timing methods; I believe this may be true as well. It is in the realm of possibilities for both positions to be true at the same time. I don't think anyone is disagreeing with you on this one , Ice.

edit: other than the CruelestRanter ... but that's what he does
Neither of you have any evidence that it matters, or how much. If you do, I’d like to see it. If you don’t, you should stop suggesting it matters.

Why is “we should focus on things that actually correlate with success” such a controversial idea?

Thanks for calling me out though. That felt necessary.
The reason I called you out was because you were the only person in this silly argument to claim that short area quickness has no correlation to RB success. Assuming that the amount of time that a hole remains open at the line of scrimmage isn't infinite, it would stand to reason that rate in which a RB can get from point A to point B should matter in his success rate. And in the game of football that distance is normally less than 10 yards. I'm sorry that I can't provide you with any hard data to back up this claim. I can only appeal to your common sense.
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Re: Trey Sermon

Postby Ice » Wed May 05, 2021 11:14 pm

Hottoddies wrote: Wed May 05, 2021 8:08 pm This is one of the most ridicules arguments ever. Ice is saying that 10 yard split quickness is a highly desirable trait for a RB. I totally agree. I believe most reasonable people, including Dynasty DeLorean, would agree. However, what Dynasty Delorean is saying, is that no matter how value those numbers are, those numbers can't be trusted to be accurate. Due to the ambiguous start time, short distance, and different timing methods; I believe this may be true as well. It is in the realm of possibilities for both positions to be true at the same time. I don't think anyone is disagreeing with you on this one , Ice.

edit: other than the CruelestRanter ... but that's what he does
I am well aware he has taken the position the numbers can't be trusted. I also understand minor variances in hand times. However, organizations use 10 yard splits to gauge quickness and have for decades. Common sense dictates if the numbers are so inaccurate or couldn't be trusted then the league wouldn't use them. Further it doesn't take a mathlete to go frame by frame to determine the time at 10, 20, 30, and 40 yards.

The fact remains the 49's GM who drafted him mentioned his 10 yard numbers as something they looked at which was quoted earlier. They certainly must have believed and probably timed him like everyone else at his pro day.

Some players are really quick but not fast. This seems to be the case with with Sermon which this thread is about.

Go back and read my first post detailing him. It certainly wasn't inflammatory. I did compare published numbers of his 10 yard vs other published 10 yard numbers and actually quoted those in a later post.

Bottom line is this player will climb up fantasy boards because he went to a solid running team and that team made a significant move up to draft him.
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Re: Trey Sermon

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Wed May 05, 2021 11:30 pm

People do frame count but the video is never going to be ideal as the player is traveling 40 yards. If you have the camera at the start, you can’t see the finish well. If you have the camera at the finish, then you won’t be able to see the 10 yard mark directly from the side. There is also disagreement as to when you start the timer. Is it on first movement. Is it when the back foot lifts off the ground? Many people don’t really know how they do it at the combine so everyone is frame counting differently and they come up with different results. If teams are setting up multiple cameras and frame counting, great. But they sure as hell aren’t going to share that information with you or anyone else. Whatever numbers you’re seeing are likely from a less-than-ideal way of doing things. Less ideal than the combine at least. The reason why combine times are a more consistent way of doing things is because they start and stop the timer at the same time for everyone, and go back and verify via the video. You will never get that level of accuracy or consistency at a pro day which is why it’s nonsense to start comparing 10 yard split from one persons pro day to another 10 yard split from someone else’s combine.
Last edited by Dynasty DeLorean on Wed May 05, 2021 11:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Trey Sermon

Postby Ice » Wed May 05, 2021 11:35 pm

Dynasty DeLorean wrote: Wed May 05, 2021 10:38 pm
Hottoddies wrote: Wed May 05, 2021 8:08 pm This is one of the most ridicules arguments ever.
It’s bizarre, to say the least. The irony of all of this is I do agree with him that a faster 10 yard split is more desirable, in theory. But he’s comparing apples to bananas.
What is bizarre to me is you are stuck on the fact I compared two sets of numbers. Instead of looking at the bigger picture as to why the 49's moved up to draft him you decided to battle on efficacy of 10 yard split numbers even when Lynch himself quoted his 10 yard number when discussing Sermon.

I simply stated his numbers were better than all but 1 from last years class which they were and provided the those numbers. They are not my numbers so maybe complain to the NFL.

My post was aimed at why Sermon is climbing up draft boards and what the 49's considered when they invested so much draft capital to get him.

I am discussing a player you are debating the accuracy of split times so yes apples and oranges or bananas if you prefer.
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Re: Trey Sermon

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Wed May 05, 2021 11:42 pm

Ice wrote: Wed May 05, 2021 11:35 pm
I simply stated his numbers were better than all but 1 from last years class which they were
You just might be the only person on the planet who thinks pro day numbers are accurate.

I have a frame counters numbers for some players at this years pro days and the lowest he has is a 1.53 10 yard split for two people and they ran a 4.32 and 4.27 40 yard dash respectively.

In previous years, highly explosive rbs such as Saquon Barkley and Antonio Gibson also only managed to get down to a 1.54 or so 10 yard split while running a 4.3x-4.40. And Saquon is not just “long speed”, he’s arguably the most explosive, fast twitch rb we’ve seen since Barry Sanders. Trey Sermon having a 1.49 10 yard split is a fairy tale.

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Re: Trey Sermon

Postby Bronco Billy » Thu May 06, 2021 4:40 am

If Sermon does in fact have such a fast 10 yd split, then given his 40 time and how slow he looks on tape, his O linemen (and opposing D linemen) can outrun him from yds 11-40. That’s probably not very desirable if he’s lining up 7 yds deep as a RB.

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Re: Trey Sermon

Postby OhCruelestRanter » Thu May 06, 2021 5:01 am

Hottoddies wrote: Wed May 05, 2021 10:47 pm
OhCruelestRanter wrote: Wed May 05, 2021 8:21 pm
Hottoddies wrote: Wed May 05, 2021 8:08 pm This is one of the most ridicules arguments ever. Ice is saying that 10 yard split quickness is a highly desirable trait for a RB. I totally agree. I believe most reasonable people, including Dynasty DeLorean, would agree. However, what Dynasty Delorean is saying, is that no matter how value those numbers are, those numbers can't be trusted to be accurate. Due to the ambiguous start time, short distance, and different timing methods; I believe this may be true as well. It is in the realm of possibilities for both positions to be true at the same time. I don't think anyone is disagreeing with you on this one , Ice.

edit: other than the CruelestRanter ... but that's what he does
Neither of you have any evidence that it matters, or how much. If you do, I’d like to see it. If you don’t, you should stop suggesting it matters.

Why is “we should focus on things that actually correlate with success” such a controversial idea?

Thanks for calling me out though. That felt necessary.
The reason I called you out was because you were the only person in this silly argument to claim that short area quickness has no correlation to RB success. Assuming that the amount of time that a hole remains open at the line of scrimmage isn't infinite, it would stand to reason that rate in which a RB can get from point A to point B should matter in his success rate. And in the game of football that distance is normally less than 10 yards. I'm sorry that I can't provide you with any hard data to back up this claim. I can only appeal to your common sense.
At no point did I “claim that short area quickness has no correlation to RB success.” I never did that. This is a straw man. I said that the 10 yard split didn’t matter. You implicitly made the assumption that those two things are the same.

The problem with using something like a 10 yard split is that you’re making a number of assumptions- some of them are fine, like “short area quickness is good” and some of them are bad, like “the ten yard split is a good measurement of short area quickness.”

When you say that the 10 yard split matters because short area quickness is important, it’s implicit that the 10 yard split must then be a good measurement of said quickness. The problem is that we have no idea if that’s true. First, in order for it to be true, it would have to be accurately measured; doesn’t seem like it is. Second, they’re not analogous situations, even if they might seem like it, because during the 40 yard dash players start on their own, and in a game they have to react to the snap.

Then, even if you think it matters, we still don’t know how much, or at what threshold. Like what’s better, a 4.40 with a 1.59 split? Or a 4.45 with a 1.55 split? If it’s predictive, is it only predictive because it correlates with 40 time? Without any data to support your decision making, you have no idea what to do with that information. It’s just there.

This is why it’s important to not make these arguments without something to support them and why it’s necessary to focus on stuff that actually correlates with success; otherwise we end up trusting arbitrary numbers that don’t mean anything, and we get further away from identifying good players.
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Re: Trey Sermon

Postby MEuRaH » Thu May 06, 2021 5:11 am

Ice wrote: Wed May 05, 2021 10:52 amThe 49's are not stupid.
I don't know about that, and I'm a huge 49ers fan! :lol:

They drafted a RB in the third round that quit football in college because his heart wasn't in it, and returned for his senior year for who knows what reason. Did he even play? I can't remember. They traded up for a linebacker with issues that every team passed on who eventually got into even more trouble and was off the team in a year. They drafted a D lineman early over other players they needed because he was a "can't miss prospect" and... he missed. They passed over Mahomes even though they knew how good he was and they needed a QB (they didn't have Jimmy G yet).

I'm not confident in Lance just yet. I really wanted Fields. They gave up a massive amount to get Lance instead of waiting to draft day to see what transpired. They could have used that draft capital to trade for Aaron Rodgers too!

I'm not as confident in their drafting skills as you are. Year after year I come away miserable and upset. I gotta be honest, I felt that way yet again after this draft. Serman was not the guy I would have taken for this offense. I like his quickness enough to write about it on the DLF article, but his lateral speed and downfield speed isn't there. Mostert does very well in those areas, as does Wilson. They are able to race to the edge where Kittle is blocking to get around that corner. I just can't see that with Sermon tbh.

As for the 10-yard split -- which is a metric I love because it tests initial quickness -- I couldn't use it this year. The pro day 40-times were all over the map. It was like every WR and RB was fast this year, even though the numbers didn't seem to match a player's film. Someone suggested that players were a little more relaxed at the pro day vs under the lights and microscope that the combine gives, adding pressure to a situation to make it feel more like a game.

I dunno. I love the 10 and 20 yard splits, but I just didn't trust the numbers this year.
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Re: Trey Sermon

Postby Ice » Thu May 06, 2021 6:10 am

dlf_mikeh wrote: Thu May 06, 2021 5:11 am
Ice wrote: Wed May 05, 2021 10:52 amThe 49's are not stupid.
I don't know about that, and I'm a huge 49ers fan! :lol:
Now that I can actually laugh about. :thumbup:

The point of the conversation from my perspective was justifying why the 49's moved up to get him. One stated reason was his 10 yard number which came directly from the GM. We can all think he is an idiot I guess for believing in the numbers but it would appear I am certainly not the only the person on the planet that puts stock in the numbers.

While you and others may not trust them because of the disdain for pro days, the 49's obviously did and teams did use pro days to measure explosion numbers on the vast majority of players. The players and their college coaches were not the ones keeping track of the numbers it was the host of talent evaluators sent by NFL organizations.

Never claimed the combine wasn't a better setting.
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Re: Trey Sermon

Postby killer_of_giants » Thu May 06, 2021 6:27 am

Dynasty DeLorean wrote: Wed May 05, 2021 11:30 pm Many people don’t really know how they do it at the combine so everyone is frame counting differently and they come up with different results.
iirc, there is no start signal, the runner starts when he wants and the starting time is manual. the uncertainty on the manual start will weigh a lot more on a 10 yards distnce than on a 40. this could explain the year-to-year differences too.

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Re: Trey Sermon

Postby Mike11 » Thu May 06, 2021 8:32 am

I get where the debate is going from both Ice and DD, I think Hottoddies nailed it in summary. Let's just get back to what this really means for Sermon. I'm seeing all over twitter this AM from the big hitters that people are fools for taking Sermon back end round 1/early round 2 in SF.

I'm taking Sermon after Chase, Smith, Waddle, Batemen but before the Moore's and Marshall. I ended up going this route because I knew I could get one of them with 2.07 (I took Sermon 2.04) but I think it's a hard choice if you only have one second.

I think Sermon is getting the early Keshawn Vaughn comps but I disagree with them. Vaughn went to a more crowded backfield and tested horrendously (even if we agree pro days aren't super legit we can agree Sermon overall tested well with the exception of long speed).

What are the most likely outcomes for Sermon? I think if he can work up to 60/65% of the workload hes a mid-range RB2 with how much SF runs? I also think his frame is much more desirable than Carter who is getting debated in a similar range to Sermon.
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Re: Trey Sermon

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Thu May 06, 2021 10:57 am

Mike11 wrote: Thu May 06, 2021 8:32 am

I think Sermon is getting the early Keshawn Vaughn comps but I disagree with them. Vaughn went to a more crowded backfield and tested horrendously (even if we agree pro days aren't super legit we can agree Sermon overall tested well with the exception of long speed).
Well, from what I can see Vaughn tested above-average for speed, didn't test in the agility drills, broad jump was close to average but only had a 32" vertical, which isn't ideal but many great rb's had poor verticals. It would be hard to argue his athleticism is why he failed. A more crowded backfield for sure, and when he did make it onto the field he didn't look all that great. Not trying to nitpick but saying Vaughn tested horrendously seems misleading.


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