Mecole hardman thoughts/value

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Re: Mecole hardman thoughts/value

Postby Lord_Varys » Wed Apr 15, 2020 2:28 pm

FantasyFreak wrote:
Tue Apr 14, 2020 7:38 pm
2nd rounder. I think he's a gadget guy. Perfect for best ball. He was drafted in part due to his elite return skills. He's WR 3 on that team, and 4th best option, so he's going to be difficult to trust and slot into your starting lineup. I personally don't think he's ever a consistent Fantasy option, but will be a boom or bust type guy.
I think he profiled very similarly to DeSean Jackson and that Reid was going to use him similarly as the field stretching WR2. Not just as a gadget guy. Feel he has a chance to be a consistent boom/bust option* someday.

Not this year though. Watkins and Robinson returning pretty much kills his value for this year though. You can never feel good about starting him unless Watkins gets hurt, and even then, meh.

What is a "consistent boom/bust option", you ask? A guy like Will Fuller or Brandin Cooks who can boom/bust their way to a WR2 end-of-year finish, whose average bust games won't kill you in a flex, who probably don't have a floor of zero. Love having guys like this in a flex spot who can win you a week, but if they just have 2 catches for 35 yards then oh well. Mecole Hardman, however, has a floor of zero points and is not going to boom/bust his way to a WR2 finish. Not with Watkins and Robinson consistently getting targets. Not this year, anyways. I think that is his future though. So yeah a late mid 2nd round rookie pick is a fair price to pay to get a dude who Andy Reid reached for to draft, who has insane speed, who is paired with Patrick Mahomes. Worth holding onto for the long-run I think. Just not worth jack this year.

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Re: Mecole hardman thoughts/value

Postby usps33 » Wed Apr 15, 2020 3:07 pm

PR0v3 wrote:
Tue Apr 14, 2020 10:32 pm
usps33 wrote:
Tue Apr 14, 2020 9:52 pm
I offered Darrell Henderson for Hardman, got rejected, I thought that was a fair price to pay.
I think you’ll be better off for it.
Since I have Tyreek, I was willing to pay a little more than what I feel Hardman is worth. I value Henderson more than Hardman, but I can understand Hardman owners having the opposite opinion. The Rams could draft an RB early and that will tank Henderson’s value, similar to what just happened to Hardman with the Chiefs deciding to keep Sammy Watkins.
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Re: Mecole hardman thoughts/value

Postby Cameron Giles » Wed Apr 15, 2020 3:16 pm

My only thing with Hardman is that he's never really produced at any level, and it's not because of being held back by something. Don't get me wrong, he has some appealing talent, but I don't see a future stud here as much as I do a solid complimentary piece. I honestly wouldn't be shocked if the Chiefs draft another WR by this time next year when Watkins is gone, or if Watkins just re-signs for cheap to stay in a winning situation.

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Re: Mecole hardman thoughts/value

Postby Hottoddies » Wed Apr 15, 2020 3:17 pm

jenkins.math wrote:
Wed Apr 15, 2020 2:13 pm
I feel like them bringing back Sammy is directly related to their thoughts on Mecole. If they felt like he was ready for a larger role, they would have cut Sammy outright. The fact they brought Sammy back doesn't make a ton of sense if your plan is to feature Mecole more.
I heard a telephone interview with Reid in which he said that their main offseason focus this year, in light of the CoVid-19 pandemic, was to keep as much of their team intact so as to maintain continuity. So I wouldn't read too much into the Watkins' deal.
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Re: Mecole hardman thoughts/value

Postby grandmabetty » Wed Apr 15, 2020 8:06 pm

Ice wrote:
Wed Apr 15, 2020 6:27 am
usps33 wrote:
Tue Apr 14, 2020 9:52 pm
I offered Darrell Henderson for Hardman, got rejected, I thought that was a fair price to pay.
As a Hardman owner that would be an instant reject with no counter. Hardman has massive upside as a WR. While he was used more as a deeper threat type in year one, he was successful averaging 20.7 per reception with 6 TD's.

If you could get him for a 2nd that would be a steal. I expect steady improvement this season with major breakout numbers in 2021.

I would think most that drafted him realize patience is needed but a great buy if you can find an owner that expects instant gratification.
As long as hill and kelce are there I don't see it. WR3 with the occasional big game maybe but there are too many other good playmaker in this offense for Hardman to be a major factor IMO
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Re: Mecole hardman thoughts/value

Postby Ice » Thu Apr 16, 2020 8:18 am

grandmabetty wrote:
Wed Apr 15, 2020 8:06 pm
Ice wrote:
Wed Apr 15, 2020 6:27 am
usps33 wrote:
Tue Apr 14, 2020 9:52 pm
I offered Darrell Henderson for Hardman, got rejected, I thought that was a fair price to pay.
As a Hardman owner that would be an instant reject with no counter. Hardman has massive upside as a WR. While he was used more as a deeper threat type in year one, he was successful averaging 20.7 per reception with 6 TD's.

If you could get him for a 2nd that would be a steal. I expect steady improvement this season with major breakout numbers in 2021.

I would think most that drafted him realize patience is needed but a great buy if you can find an owner that expects instant gratification.
As long as hill and kelce are there I don't see it. WR3 with the occasional big game maybe but there are too many other good playmaker in this offense for Hardman to be a major factor IMO
Tyreek was a converted RB. He is a very good Player no doubt. Hardman is the same size plus a few pounds with the same speed ratio. So Tyreek develops as a WR but now Hardman can't?

Rookie Year, Both had 6 TD's receiving. Tyreek had 593 yards receiving, Hardman had 538. The big difference is Tyreek had a ton more receptions averaging 9.7 vs 20.7 for Hardman.

BTW, the catch percentage stats last year:
Tyreek 65.2% on 14.8 Y/R, 860 yards, 7 rec TD's 12 starts
Watkins 57.8% on 12.9 Y/R, 673 Yards, 3 rec TD's 13 starts
Hardman 63.4% on 20.7 Y/R, 538 Yards. 6 rec TD's 5 starts

Hardman with little experience was already playing at a high level, Better than Watkins IMO. He is overtaking him already and by year 3 should be a full time starter if he is not already this year.

WR's progress over time, his skill set is already impressive and should only get better.

Hardman's 20.7 yards per catch with 6 receiving TD's in 5 starts on 26 receptions is being a play maker; The talent is obvious and something to build on.
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Re: Mecole hardman thoughts/value

Postby djeternal2 » Thu Apr 16, 2020 10:09 am

Ice wrote:
Thu Apr 16, 2020 8:18 am
grandmabetty wrote:
Wed Apr 15, 2020 8:06 pm
Ice wrote:
Wed Apr 15, 2020 6:27 am


As a Hardman owner that would be an instant reject with no counter. Hardman has massive upside as a WR. While he was used more as a deeper threat type in year one, he was successful averaging 20.7 per reception with 6 TD's.

If you could get him for a 2nd that would be a steal. I expect steady improvement this season with major breakout numbers in 2021.

I would think most that drafted him realize patience is needed but a great buy if you can find an owner that expects instant gratification.
As long as hill and kelce are there I don't see it. WR3 with the occasional big game maybe but there are too many other good playmaker in this offense for Hardman to be a major factor IMO
Tyreek was a converted RB. He is a very good Player no doubt. Hardman is the same size plus a few pounds with the same speed ratio. So Tyreek develops as a WR but now Hardman can't?

Rookie Year, Both had 6 TD's receiving. Tyreek had 593 yards receiving, Hardman had 538. The big difference is Tyreek had a ton more receptions averaging 9.7 vs 20.7 for Hardman.

BTW, the catch percentage stats last year:
Tyreek 65.2% on 14.8 Y/R, 860 yards, 7 rec TD's 12 starts
Watkins 57.8% on 12.9 Y/R, 673 Yards, 3 rec TD's 13 starts
Hardman 63.4% on 20.7 Y/R, 538 Yards. 6 rec TD's 5 starts

Hardman with little experience was already playing at a high level, Better than Watkins IMO. He is overtaking him already and by year 3 should be a full time starter if he is not already this year.

WR's progress over time, his skill set is already impressive and should only get better.

Hardman's 20.7 yards per catch with 6 receiving TD's in 5 starts on 26 receptions is being a play maker; The talent is obvious and something to build on.
This narrative would be great if he came on towards the end of the season. He did not. He had 4 of his 5 starts in the first 9 weeks with week 9 being a starter and not garnering a single target. The rest of the season he had 1 start and had 9 targets for 6 catches. Now mind you he played in all 16 games so the other games he wasn't starting he was at least the 3rd WR in the pecking order to be generous. I doubt he was even third in the order considering he went from 70+% snap count in weeks 1 & 2 and trailed off from there all the way down to the teens by midseason. He did have one bounce back week in snap count which was week 11 where he didn't start but played 76% of the off snaps. He turned that into 4 targets for 2 catches and 13 yards. After mid season he didn't hit over 38% of the offensive snap except that week 11.

In the playoffs he had 4 catches on 6 targets for 29 yards. His snap count % in those 3 games 16%, 40%, & 28%. BTW for reference Sammy's snap % those games 87%, 82%, 87%. Sammy's lowest off snap % outside of week 5 where he was hurt? 62% in Week 13.

So is already overtaking Watkins? Nope the snap count, starts, & targets all point to Hardman being at best the 3rd WR on the team and that's being very generous imo. Can he learn and get better? Sure it's possible but that's a leap of faith as the #s from last year don't give that hope.
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Re: Mecole hardman thoughts/value

Postby Ice » Thu Apr 16, 2020 11:04 am

I fully get Watkins has vastly more experience and was used in the SB run. Reid plays an explosive game but likes experience.

That said, the guard is changing and we will see it once the season unfolds.

Hardman spent last off season learning Tyreek’s position due to circumstances. This season, I suspect he will be focusing more on Watkins’s position. That will be a major plus long term for Hardman.

Not directed at anyone but I find it amazing that so many don’t get the time it takes to develop and crack the lineup full time especially on good teams at WR.

Watkins took a multimillion dollar.pay cut just to remain on this team.

The guard is changing but the doubters can always cling to the greatness of Watkins or Tyreek or Kelce. Watkins is vulnerable big time.

Time will tell but Mahomes developed a great connection with rookie and he has produced as a rookie. Give him another year and he could end up a 3rd year breakout stud.
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Re: Mecole hardman thoughts/value

Postby Zacsby » Thu Apr 16, 2020 1:25 pm

I think the potential is there for him to be a solid, but probably inconsistent WR2. Definitely needs another year or so of development and for Sammy to get out of his way though. I do not believe KC drafted him in the 2nd round to return kicks. I don't think he's Tyreek 2.0 either. I'm not selling for a 2nd but wouldn't pay more than that either.
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Re: Mecole hardman thoughts/value

Postby jdomer2403 » Thu Apr 16, 2020 1:31 pm

Second coming of Mike Wallace.

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Re: Mecole hardman thoughts/value

Postby Jigga94 » Mon Mar 01, 2021 9:17 pm

Sounds likely that Hardman will be the WR2 in KC next year.

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2 ... tkins/amp/

How much more work he gets is questionable still to me though. Tyreek and Kelce will still be the main targets. Losing Watkins and Robinson would free up 114 targets from last year though. Pringle likely sees a nice bump too if they don't bring Robinson back.

I think Hardman seeing 20-30 more targets and hitting 60/800/6 is best case scenario. More TD may be possible with that offense (he has 6 and 4 TD past 2 years) but prediciting 8 TD seems crazy
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WR: Tyreek, DJM, Jeudy, Hollywood, Cooks, Mims, Hardman, Preston, Parris
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Re: Mecole hardman thoughts/value

Postby honcho55 » Tue Mar 02, 2021 12:11 am

I just wanna pop in this thread and say this. I wasn’t around in these forums yet, but back then I was a huge Sammy Watkins guy. If someone had told me he would be playing with arguably the best QB ever for a few years? Man oh man.
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Re: Mecole hardman thoughts/value

Postby halfbaked88 » Tue Mar 02, 2021 1:33 am

He's a roster clogger. Vacated targets at the WR position are won by talent. It's never safe to assume just because 'X' player is leaving that will automatically funnel to 'Y.' because KC can just draft/bring in someone else.

For whatever reason his name still has some value. I'd sell whatever you can get for him. If he was going to assume a bigger role he would have done so by now instead of being a special teams hybrid guy.

Of course I may be wrong but I would sell while I still can. He scored 123 and 115 pts in my league last 2 years. That kind of production can be had anywhere for cheap and is hardly worth holding.
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Re: Mecole hardman thoughts/value

Postby SoftwoodGrampian » Tue Mar 02, 2021 5:03 am

I remember later in the year when they were lobbying for more playing time for Pringle.

He's prob worth any 3rd

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Re: Mecole hardman thoughts/value

Postby Jigga94 » Tue Mar 02, 2021 6:21 am

halfbaked88 wrote:
Tue Mar 02, 2021 1:33 am
He's a roster clogger. Vacated targets at the WR position are won by talent. It's never safe to assume just because 'X' player is leaving that will automatically funnel to 'Y.' because KC can just draft/bring in someone else.

For whatever reason his name still has some value. I'd sell whatever you can get for him. If he was going to assume a bigger role he would have done so by now instead of being a special teams hybrid guy.

Of course I may be wrong but I would sell while I still can. He scored 123 and 115 pts in my league last 2 years. That kind of production can be had anywhere for cheap and is hardly worth holding.
I think the odds are that you are right, but I guess I just like the potential too much to sell for a 3rd. He will be going into his 3rd year and while they could bring other guys in (and most certainly will, they only have Tyreek, Mecole and Pringle right now) I think the offense has bigger priorities and I'm sure they would like to bolster the offense a bit more as well. I don't see them taking a WR early, but then again I didn't think they would take RB.

I like the probability that he may have some great weeks in this offense and boost his value higher than what it has been (mid 2nd at best?)
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