Jonathan Taylor is your 1.01 now.

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Jigga94
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Re: Jonathan Taylor is your 1.01 now.

Postby Jigga94 » Sat Nov 28, 2020 5:57 am

nathanq42 wrote:
Fri Nov 27, 2020 10:03 pm
Mjvb5 wrote:
Fri Nov 27, 2020 9:30 pm
Jigga94 wrote:
Fri Nov 27, 2020 9:15 pm
Have we had a Trich size bust since TRich?
Taylor (outside the dynasty community) wouldnt come close to a TRich tier bust. Guy was a second round pick instead of 3rd overall. Closest we've got is LF.
As far as RBs yeah I'd say LF. But there are high picks that bust every year
Yes I realize that. Just funny he's automatically compared to one of the biggest busts ever.

Would be like calling all the bad QB Jemarcus
2QB, 2RB, 3WR, TE, FLEX - PPR - [b]14 Keepers[/b]
QB: Mahomes, J. Allen, Baker, D. Jones, Eason
RB: JT, Mostert, Gaskin, Dillon, Gus, Mattison, McFarland, Snell, Wilson, McKissic, Darrel
WR: Tyreek, DJM, Jeudy, Hollywood, Cooks, Mims, Hardman, Preston, Parris
TE: Andrews, Fant, Henry
2021: 1.10, 2, 3, 4, 5.08, 5.10, 6, 7, 9, 10

2QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, 3FLEX - PPR - [b]20 Keepers[/b]
QB: [b]Mahomes, Ryan,[/b] Minshew, Trubisky, Mariota
RB: [b]Saquon, Jacobs, Dobbins, Hunt,[/b] Penny, Snell
WR: [b]AJB, DJM, Chark, Ruggs, Hardman, Mike Will, C. Davis, C. Samuel,[/b] G. Davis, Mooney, Lazard, J. Washington
TE: [b]Andrews, Henry, Gesicki, Tonyan,[/b] Irv
2021: 1.03, 2.05, 2.09, 3.05, 3.09
2022: 1, 1, 2, 3, 3

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Re: Jonathan Taylor is your 1.01 now.

Postby Mjvb5 » Sat Nov 28, 2020 7:49 am

Jigga94 wrote:
Sat Nov 28, 2020 5:57 am
nathanq42 wrote:
Fri Nov 27, 2020 10:03 pm
Mjvb5 wrote:
Fri Nov 27, 2020 9:30 pm


Taylor (outside the dynasty community) wouldnt come close to a TRich tier bust. Guy was a second round pick instead of 3rd overall. Closest we've got is LF.
As far as RBs yeah I'd say LF. But there are high picks that bust every year
Yes I realize that. Just funny he's automatically compared to one of the biggest busts ever.

Would be like calling all the bad QB Jemarcus
If he busts he'd comp better to kerryon or royce than TRich from an nfl standpoint. Sure the dynasty community might've thought he was the second coming of Barkley but the nfl didn't .

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Re: Jonathan Taylor is your 1.01 now.

Postby Sriracha » Sat Nov 28, 2020 10:43 am

Mjvb5 wrote:
Sat Nov 28, 2020 7:49 am
Jigga94 wrote:
Sat Nov 28, 2020 5:57 am
nathanq42 wrote:
Fri Nov 27, 2020 10:03 pm


As far as RBs yeah I'd say LF. But there are high picks that bust every year
Yes I realize that. Just funny he's automatically compared to one of the biggest busts ever.

Would be like calling all the bad QB Jemarcus
If he busts he'd comp better to kerryon or royce than TRich from an nfl standpoint. Sure the dynasty community might've thought he was the second coming of Barkley but the nfl didn't .
If we're just looking at draft capital, sure.

As for RB's that were elite athletes and were highly productive throughout college do we have any bust comps? Closest one I can think of is Derrick Henry, but he eventually broke out

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Re: Jonathan Taylor is your 1.01 now.

Postby bjd5211 » Sat Nov 28, 2020 10:53 am

Sriracha wrote:
Sat Nov 28, 2020 10:43 am
Mjvb5 wrote:
Sat Nov 28, 2020 7:49 am
Jigga94 wrote:
Sat Nov 28, 2020 5:57 am


Yes I realize that. Just funny he's automatically compared to one of the biggest busts ever.

Would be like calling all the bad QB Jemarcus
If he busts he'd comp better to kerryon or royce than TRich from an nfl standpoint. Sure the dynasty community might've thought he was the second coming of Barkley but the nfl didn't .
If we're just looking at draft capital, sure.

As for RB's that were elite athletes and were highly productive throughout college do we have any bust comps? Closest one I can think of is Derrick Henry, but he eventually broke out
Rashaad Penny.

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Re: Jonathan Taylor is your 1.01 now.

Postby Sriracha » Sat Nov 28, 2020 10:58 am

bjd5211 wrote:
Sat Nov 28, 2020 10:53 am
Sriracha wrote:
Sat Nov 28, 2020 10:43 am
Mjvb5 wrote:
Sat Nov 28, 2020 7:49 am

If he busts he'd comp better to kerryon or royce than TRich from an nfl standpoint. Sure the dynasty community might've thought he was the second coming of Barkley but the nfl didn't .
If we're just looking at draft capital, sure.

As for RB's that were elite athletes and were highly productive throughout college do we have any bust comps? Closest one I can think of is Derrick Henry, but he eventually broke out
Rashaad Penny.
Well, we still don't know that Penny is a bust (he did look like he was breaking out last year before he tore his ACL; and he has averaged 5.3 ypc throughout his career).

and he didn't "start" until his senior season at San Diego St; so I wouldn't exactly say he had a highly productive college career.

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Re: Jonathan Taylor is your 1.01 now.

Postby bjd5211 » Sat Nov 28, 2020 11:10 am

Sriracha wrote:
Sat Nov 28, 2020 10:58 am
bjd5211 wrote:
Sat Nov 28, 2020 10:53 am
Sriracha wrote:
Sat Nov 28, 2020 10:43 am


If we're just looking at draft capital, sure.

As for RB's that were elite athletes and were highly productive throughout college do we have any bust comps? Closest one I can think of is Derrick Henry, but he eventually broke out
Rashaad Penny.
Well, we still don't know that Penny is a bust (he did look like he was breaking out last year before he tore his ACL; and he has averaged 5.3 ypc throughout his career).

and he didn't "start" until his senior season at San Diego St; so I wouldn't exactly say he had a highly productive college career.
He was just as productive as Henry.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/pl ... nry-2.html

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/pl ... nny-1.html

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Re: Jonathan Taylor is your 1.01 now.

Postby Sriracha » Sat Nov 28, 2020 11:19 am

bjd5211 wrote:
Sat Nov 28, 2020 11:10 am
Sriracha wrote:
Sat Nov 28, 2020 10:58 am
bjd5211 wrote:
Sat Nov 28, 2020 10:53 am


Rashaad Penny.
Well, we still don't know that Penny is a bust (he did look like he was breaking out last year before he tore his ACL; and he has averaged 5.3 ypc throughout his career).

and he didn't "start" until his senior season at San Diego St; so I wouldn't exactly say he had a highly productive college career.
He was just as productive as Henry.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/pl ... nry-2.html

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/pl ... nny-1.html
Not at all, Henry became the workhorse as a Junior competing with 5 star talents at Alabama.

Penny didn't take the reigns until his Senior season at a non-power 5 conference school, San Diego St. competing with far inferior talent.

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Re: Jonathan Taylor is your 1.01 now.

Postby bjd5211 » Sat Nov 28, 2020 11:31 am

Sriracha wrote:
Sat Nov 28, 2020 11:19 am
bjd5211 wrote:
Sat Nov 28, 2020 11:10 am
Sriracha wrote:
Sat Nov 28, 2020 10:58 am


Well, we still don't know that Penny is a bust (he did look like he was breaking out last year before he tore his ACL; and he has averaged 5.3 ypc throughout his career).

and he didn't "start" until his senior season at San Diego St; so I wouldn't exactly say he had a highly productive college career.
He was just as productive as Henry.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/pl ... nry-2.html

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/pl ... nny-1.html
Not at all, Henry became the workhorse as a Junior competing with 5 star talents at Alabama.

Penny didn't take the reigns until his Senior season at a non-power 5 conference school, San Diego St. competing with far inferior talent.
PRODUCTION was still the same (more yards for Penny more TDs for Henry) and Penny ended up being a 1st round pick unlike Henry or JT.

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Re: Jonathan Taylor is your 1.01 now.

Postby Sriracha » Sat Nov 28, 2020 11:38 am

Guess we’re just gonna have to disagree.

It’s the same reason I didnt punish Swift for playing behind Nick Chubb and Sony Michel, or Najee Harris at Alabama. Who youre competing against, while not a fool proof measure of talent, does need to be considered.

There’s also the fact that Henry wouldve posted 2 elite production seasons to Penny’s 1 if he played his Senior season, as well.

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Re: Jonathan Taylor is your 1.01 now.

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Sat Nov 28, 2020 6:45 pm

Depends on what you think of as a high end athlete. Penny and Foreman both had great weight adjusted speed but not much in terms of leaping or lateral agility. Foreman suffered the achilles injury early on so it's hard to tell what could have been. Penny I think was being outplayed to some extent by Carson (for what they were being asked to do), then he had the ACL as well. Again, hard to determine but yes he was being outplayed on some level for more than a year. Guice is another one where ultimately he'll go down as a bust but for issues not related to talent level. Kevin Jones was a 227lb RB who ran a 4.38 and drafted in the 1st round, ultimately a bust but also could have been due to [foot] injuries. Trent Richardson is similar to these players as well in that leaping and agility is not recorded.

Ryan Mathews had an up and down career, ultimately not living up to the hype. Same with McFadden. Unlike Penny and Foreman, both of these players had above average leaping and agility to pair with their speed. Ben Tate is another hyper athlete drafted in the 2nd that didn't work out. Donald Brown. These are mostly off the top of my head, i'm sure there are more highly drafted hyper athletic rb's that have busted if i kept looking.

While being a hyper athletic early round pick and busting is not that rare, JT's resume is damn near bulletproof and it would be pretty rare for a player of his stature to be a total bust for non-injury related reasons.

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Re: Jonathan Taylor is your 1.01 now.

Postby Sriracha » Sat Nov 28, 2020 7:01 pm

Dynasty DeLorean wrote:
Sat Nov 28, 2020 6:45 pm
Depends on what you think of as a high end athlete. Penny and Foreman both had great weight adjusted speed but not much in terms of leaping or lateral agility. Foreman suffered the achilles injury early on so it's hard to tell what could have been. Penny I think was being outplayed to some extent by Carson (for what they were being asked to do), then he had the ACL as well. Again, hard to determine but yes he was being outplayed on some level for more than a year. Guice is another one where ultimately he'll go down as a bust but for issues not related to talent level. Kevin Jones was a 227lb RB who ran a 4.38 and drafted in the 1st round, ultimately a bust but also could have been due to [foot] injuries. Trent Richardson is similar to these players as well in that leaping and agility is not recorded.

Ryan Mathews had an up and down career, ultimately not living up to the hype. Same with McFadden. Unlike Penny and Foreman, both of these players had above average leaping and agility to pair with their speed. Ben Tate is another hyper athlete drafted in the 2nd that didn't work out. Donald Brown. These are mostly off the top of my head, i'm sure there are more highly drafted hyper athletic rb's that have busted if i kept looking.

While being a hyper athletic early round pick and busting is not that rare, JT's resume is damn near bulletproof and it would be pretty rare for a player of his stature to be a total bust for non-injury related reasons.
Kevin Jones, Ryan Mathews, D'onta Foreman, Darren McFadden (you could also add felix jones), Cadillac Williams and Donald Brown seem to be the closest to what I was asking for.

Aside from Donald Brown, they all had debilitating injuries to accompany their career busts (I wouldn't consider Trent Richardson an elite athlete as the main reason he was jettisoned by the Browns is because he physically lacked burst)


seemed to have been a lot of them back in the early 2000's :lol: we could also include Reggie Bush -- Perhaps these busts have become less prevalent because of improvements in the medical field?

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Re: Jonathan Taylor is your 1.01 now.

Postby Vcize » Sun Nov 29, 2020 12:02 am

Sriracha wrote:
Tue Nov 24, 2020 11:13 am
CGW wrote:
Tue Nov 24, 2020 6:30 am
Yarnith wrote:
Mon Nov 23, 2020 10:19 pm
Sub 4.0yds a carry is alarming anyway you wanna wrap it. Even Akers has a better average. He flashes some things he also flashes poor vision and no patience often. He could still be something, I mean Rojo is finally looking like a good RB. Denying the chance he is gonna be a bust is growing drastically. He certainly looks nothing like the hype most had as the best RB in the draft bar none.
I wouldn't say alarming. It's disappointing from the hype he had pre season, but it's not the end all. Many high quality RBs have seasons below 4.0.

He may very well be a bust, but it is way too early to make that call based on a few poor games.
Exactly.. Leveon Bell (3.5 ypc), Joe Mixon (3.6), Marshawn Lynch (4.0, 4.1, 3.8, 3.6).... Ladainian Tomlinson (3.6)
This is a lot like saying that Antonio Brown only had 167 yards as a rookie so we shouldn't right off Dezmon Paton yet.

I mean sure, it's true. It's not a death knell. But it is far, far from ideal and we should definitely be focusing on the guys that have already broken out over the guys that have performed poorly but may one day, in a hail marry, break out.
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Re: Jonathan Taylor is your 1.01 now.

Postby Vcize » Sun Nov 29, 2020 12:12 am

Dynasty DeLorean wrote:
Mon Nov 23, 2020 3:34 am
mgscott wrote:
Sun Nov 22, 2020 6:27 pm
Cowboysfan33 wrote:
Sun Nov 22, 2020 6:13 pm
Nice game for J.Taylor today, 22-90 and 4-24. It’s almost like RBs need more touches to get going sometimes.
Yeah. It's amazing how that works.
Derrick Henry has 550 yards @4.1 ypc and 2 tds in first half of games and 1,000 yards @5.8 ypc and 14 tds in the 2nd half.

People just don’t get not every player is the same
Is that a career metric or a 2020 metric?

Even if it's career, it is far, far, far, far, far, far, far, far, far and away an outlier.

NFL.com recently updated their website and now you can only look up these stats for the most recent season, not over a whole career, which is annoying so I can't check it myself. Prior to that change though I remember doing a study on this and basically every RB of note saw their YPC decrease throughout the time of game and throughout their number of carries. That is, for basically every significant RB, their YPC in the 4th quarter was worse than their YPC in the 1st quarter, and their YPC in carries 25+ was worse than their YPC in carries 1-10.

Emmitt, LT2, Peterson, Edge, CMart, Bettis, Marshawn, etc.

The notion that a RB gets stronger as the game goes on is complete fallacy imho. Statistics back this up. Even more obviously, logic does too. The notion that one guy getting hit on every rush and carrying the load is "wearing down" a defense of 11 players, half of whom do nothing on most rusing plays, and who are constantly rotating in and out with rest, is absurd.

Again, analytics back this up. Traditionally, other than maybe the odd exception well within the realm of statistical variance, if a RB isn't great in their first 10 carries they are not going to be great in carries 25+. Both analytically and logically it makes no sense that a running back "gets better as the game goes on", and it's one of the silliest common sayings in all of professional sports right next door to the people who for decades clung to "but the rookie hasn't proven anything on an NFL field yet, so he can't possibly be better than a veteran already."
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Re: Jonathan Taylor is your 1.01 now.

Postby Sriracha » Sun Nov 29, 2020 12:51 am

Vcize wrote:
Sun Nov 29, 2020 12:02 am
Sriracha wrote:
Tue Nov 24, 2020 11:13 am
CGW wrote:
Tue Nov 24, 2020 6:30 am


I wouldn't say alarming. It's disappointing from the hype he had pre season, but it's not the end all. Many high quality RBs have seasons below 4.0.

He may very well be a bust, but it is way too early to make that call based on a few poor games.
Exactly.. Leveon Bell (3.5 ypc), Joe Mixon (3.6), Marshawn Lynch (4.0, 4.1, 3.8, 3.6).... Ladainian Tomlinson (3.6)
This is a lot like saying that Antonio Brown only had 167 yards as a rookie so we shouldn't right off Dezmon Paton yet.

I mean sure, it's true. It's not a death knell. But it is far, far from ideal and we should definitely be focusing on the guys that have already broken out over the guys that have performed poorly but may one day, in a hail marry, break out.
Completely disingenuous comparison. They're both WRs which have very different analytical predictors than RBs... and Antonio Brown and Dezmon Patmon do not share any similarities besides the fact they were both drafted in the 6th round. I believe we can both agree that Antonio Brown is an extreme outlier.

If Jonathan Taylor breaks out, it'll be far from a "hail mary".

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Re: Jonathan Taylor is your 1.01 now.

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Sun Nov 29, 2020 3:45 am

Vcize wrote:
Sun Nov 29, 2020 12:12 am
Dynasty DeLorean wrote:
Mon Nov 23, 2020 3:34 am
mgscott wrote:
Sun Nov 22, 2020 6:27 pm


Yeah. It's amazing how that works.
Derrick Henry has 550 yards @4.1 ypc and 2 tds in first half of games and 1,000 yards @5.8 ypc and 14 tds in the 2nd half.

People just don’t get not every player is the same
Is that a career metric or a 2020 metric?

Even if it's career, it is far, far, far, far, far, far, far, far, far and away an outlier.

NFL.com recently updated their website and now you can only look up these stats for the most recent season, not over a whole career, which is annoying so I can't check it myself. Prior to that change though I remember doing a study on this and basically every RB of note saw their YPC decrease throughout the time of game and throughout their number of carries. That is, for basically every significant RB, their YPC in the 4th quarter was worse than their YPC in the 1st quarter, and their YPC in carries 25+ was worse than their YPC in carries 1-10.

Emmitt, LT2, Peterson, Edge, CMart, Bettis, Marshawn, etc.

The notion that a RB gets stronger as the game goes on is complete fallacy imho. Statistics back this up. Even more obviously, logic does too. The notion that one guy getting hit on every rush and carrying the load is "wearing down" a defense of 11 players, half of whom do nothing on most rusing plays, and who are constantly rotating in and out with rest, is absurd.

Again, analytics back this up. Traditionally, other than maybe the odd exception well within the realm of statistical variance, if a RB isn't great in their first 10 carries they are not going to be great in carries 25+. Both analytically and logically it makes no sense that a running back "gets better as the game goes on", and it's one of the silliest common sayings in all of professional sports right next door to the people who for decades clung to "but the rookie hasn't proven anything on an NFL field yet, so he can't possibly be better than a veteran already."
It’s been true basically since he’s been a starter, so 2019 and 2020.

And I never said ALL rbs get stronger as the game goes on, not sure why you’d write a paragraph refuting something I never said.


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