Talent is > Landing spot right? Why landing spot has clouded our judgement and led to dynasty rookie draft mistakes

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Talent is > Landing spot right? Why landing spot has clouded our judgement and led to dynasty rookie draft mistakes

Postby DJB » Sat Aug 01, 2020 7:10 am

Hey so I wrote this article a few weeks back and posted it in Twitter but I've felt compelled to try and post more on the forums again. This community here is great and I thought I'd share this article here.

https://www.dynastyfootballlife.com/tal ... nding-spot

I'd love to hear some thoughts on the article!

Thanks!
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Re: Talent is > Landing spot right? Why landing spot has clouded our judgement and led to dynasty rookie draft mistakes

Postby murphysxm » Sat Aug 01, 2020 9:42 am

I am always going to support somebody that spends time in an effort to share knowledge. I am a believer of your overhanded premise, we do overvalue landing spots. The article does point of some obvious examples, but I imagine there are as many examples the other way in each draft. Not diminishing the accuracy of your examples, and I am too lazy to provide the counter examples, just a pretty small sample size. Good read!

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Re: Talent is > Landing spot right? Why landing spot has clouded our judgement and led to dynasty rookie draft mistakes

Postby QB Browns » Sat Aug 01, 2020 10:30 am

First off, I love what you're doing with this article. You did a great job of not only highlighting players that shifted draft positions post-draft but gave strong explanations for the reasons behind those changes and the overall feeling of the fantasy community towards those players at the time. I think that's an extremely valuable tool to reference and check yourself when it comes to getting excited about the current group of rookies.

I do have a couple of questions/push backs that I'd like to share:
1) What source did you use for ADP data? (Not questioning the validity of your data - this is more for selfish reasons. I've tried to find past dynasty ADP data and consistently struggle)
2) I think it's a little dangerous to draw too broad a conclusion that talent trumps situation nearly every time. Clearly there's a correlation and this should be a warning not to overemphasize the immediate landing spot because situations can change drastically year to year, but opportunity did allow some players you listed to climb the board and end up as very productive fantasy players. Ex: Michael Gallup, Kenny Golladay. Interestingly both of these players moved up to mid-2nd round picks, so maybe the argument for opportunity shouldn't be over-emphasized for top tier players, but provides a chance for otherwise lesser known players to establish themselves?

Like I said, I love what you did with this article and definitely will be checking out more of your work! Please keep sharing!
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QB: C. Wentz, D. Prescott, S. Darnold, B. Mayfield

RB: A. Kamara, S. Barkley, S. Michel, C. Carson, R. Mostert, D. Thompson, J. Dobbins, A. Dillon, J. Kelley, D. Harris, J. Howard

WR: M. Evans, M. Thomas, D. Adams, K. Allen, A. Robinson, A. Miller, H. Butler, M. Boykin, P. Williams, C. Lamb, C. Claypool

TE: D. Waller, J. Sternberger

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Re: Talent is > Landing spot right? Why landing spot has clouded our judgement and led to dynasty rookie draft mistakes

Postby azthecrow » Sat Aug 01, 2020 10:47 am

Thanks for the insight👍
Appreciate the article. I usually lean talent over situation but it’s hard to do sometimes. You give good reason reinforcing talent over situation.

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Re: Talent is > Landing spot right? Why landing spot has clouded our judgement and led to dynasty rookie draft mistakes

Postby PR0v3 » Sat Aug 01, 2020 11:38 am

Situation is irrelevant as talent is what drives situation. The best offenses, the ones we all want a fantasy piece of, are the best because they have the best talent. The worst offenses, the ones with limited fantasy options, are the worst because they lack talent. Good talent will turn a bad situation into a good situation. Bad talent will turn a good situation into a bad one.

You cannot buy situation, it's literally not possible. Talent is situation, so if you want a player in a good situation, either pay up for the proven talent that is in a good situation because they made it that way, or buy the rookie that creates or maintains a good situation with their talent.
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QB: Jimmy G
RB: Penny, Mattison
WR: K. Allen, Boyd, Hollywood, C. Samuel, Deebo, A. Miller, C. Davis, Washington, Ross, Pettis, Trequan
TE: Andrews, Gesicki, Everett, OJ
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Re: Talent is > Landing spot right? Why landing spot has clouded our judgement and led to dynasty rookie draft mistakes

Postby nathanq42 » Sat Aug 01, 2020 3:08 pm

I will happily test this guys. Grabbing CEH (big bump for situation) Dobbins (high caliber player in high caliber situation) and swift ("elite" prospect in a negative situation)
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WR Mike Evans, Odell Beckham Junior, DJ Moore, Dede Westbrook, Preston Williams, Zach Pascal, James Washington, Hakeem Butler
TE TJ Hockenson, Darren Waller, Jacob Hollister
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Re: Talent is > Landing spot right? Why landing spot has clouded our judgement and led to dynasty rookie draft mistakes

Postby Pac_Eddy » Sat Aug 01, 2020 3:10 pm

PR0v3 wrote:
Sat Aug 01, 2020 11:38 am
Situation is irrelevant as talent is what drives situation. The best offenses, the ones we all want a fantasy piece of, are the best because they have the best talent. The worst offenses, the ones with limited fantasy options, are the worst because they lack talent. Good talent will turn a bad situation into a good situation. Bad talent will turn a good situation into a bad one.

You cannot buy situation, it's literally not possible. Talent is situation, so if you want a player in a good situation, either pay up for the proven talent that is in a good situation because they made it that way, or buy the rookie that creates or maintains a good situation with their talent.
That's a new angle. I don't agree. I think there are plenty of examples of great talents withering on the vine in bad situations, either bad coaches, bad QBs, bad front offices, or a combination of all of those.
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Re: Talent is > Landing spot right? Why landing spot has clouded our judgement and led to dynasty rookie draft mistakes

Postby IZigUZag » Sat Aug 01, 2020 3:15 pm

PR0v3 wrote:
Sat Aug 01, 2020 11:38 am
Situation is irrelevant as talent is what drives situation. The best offenses, the ones we all want a fantasy piece of, are the best because they have the best talent. The worst offenses, the ones with limited fantasy options, are the worst because they lack talent. Good talent will turn a bad situation into a good situation. Bad talent will turn a good situation into a bad one.

You cannot buy situation, it's literally not possible. Talent is situation, so if you want a player in a good situation, either pay up for the proven talent that is in a good situation because they made it that way, or buy the rookie that creates or maintains a good situation with their talent.
While I agree that Talent often times drives situations (especially volume) there are definitely situations that can turn a mediocre talent into a fantasy star (think James Jones with Aaron Rodgers, any pass catching back that finds themselves as the only RB left healthy on the roster)... but these are all short term plays with limited shelf lives.

I will choose the player I feel is more talented over a plush situation any day of the week, though.. this is more because situations are usually narrative driven ("Lamar Jackson can't throw", "Detroit is a deadzone for RBs", "Adam Gase", etc) and are incredibly fluid even when they are accurately labeled; while Talent is much less likely to change.

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Re: Talent is > Landing spot right? Why landing spot has clouded our judgement and led to dynasty rookie draft mistakes

Postby bjd5211 » Sat Aug 01, 2020 3:24 pm

Pac_Eddy wrote:
Sat Aug 01, 2020 3:10 pm
PR0v3 wrote:
Sat Aug 01, 2020 11:38 am
Situation is irrelevant as talent is what drives situation. The best offenses, the ones we all want a fantasy piece of, are the best because they have the best talent. The worst offenses, the ones with limited fantasy options, are the worst because they lack talent. Good talent will turn a bad situation into a good situation. Bad talent will turn a good situation into a bad one.

You cannot buy situation, it's literally not possible. Talent is situation, so if you want a player in a good situation, either pay up for the proven talent that is in a good situation because they made it that way, or buy the rookie that creates or maintains a good situation with their talent.
That's a new angle. I don't agree. I think there are plenty of examples of great talents withering on the vine in bad situations, either bad coaches, bad QBs, bad front offices, or a combination of all of those.
Todd Gurley, and the Rams offense overall, is a good example of a great talent not necessarily overcoming a bad situation or turning a bad situation into a good one. He finished strong as a rookie under Fisher but then had a very poor 2nd year. Year 3 comes with McVay and the situation swings the otherway and Gurley skyrockets to the #1 asset in fantasy, and the entire offense is elevated for fantasy.

I agree talent is more important than situation, but situation is not at all a non-factor.

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Re: Talent is > Landing spot right? Why landing spot has clouded our judgement and led to dynasty rookie draft mistakes

Postby IZigUZag » Sat Aug 01, 2020 3:33 pm

bjd5211 wrote:
Sat Aug 01, 2020 3:24 pm
Pac_Eddy wrote:
Sat Aug 01, 2020 3:10 pm
PR0v3 wrote:
Sat Aug 01, 2020 11:38 am
Situation is irrelevant as talent is what drives situation. The best offenses, the ones we all want a fantasy piece of, are the best because they have the best talent. The worst offenses, the ones with limited fantasy options, are the worst because they lack talent. Good talent will turn a bad situation into a good situation. Bad talent will turn a good situation into a bad one.

You cannot buy situation, it's literally not possible. Talent is situation, so if you want a player in a good situation, either pay up for the proven talent that is in a good situation because they made it that way, or buy the rookie that creates or maintains a good situation with their talent.
That's a new angle. I don't agree. I think there are plenty of examples of great talents withering on the vine in bad situations, either bad coaches, bad QBs, bad front offices, or a combination of all of those.
Todd Gurley, and the Rams offense overall, is a good example of a great talent not necessarily overcoming a bad situation or turning a bad situation into a good one. He finished strong as a rookie under Fisher but then had a very poor 2nd year. Year 3 comes with McVay and the situation swings the otherway and Gurley skyrockets to the #1 asset in fantasy, and the entire offense is elevated for fantasy.

I agree talent is more important than situation, but situation is not at all a non-factor.
Think about this from a Dynasty perspective. Sure, his situation was bad and that prevented him from reaching his ceiling... but he was still a rock solid RB2 and then became the consensus 1.01 when the situation changed.

Making a Dynasty decision based on the current situation is just not a smart play the majority of the time.

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Re: Talent is > Landing spot right? Why landing spot has clouded our judgement and led to dynasty rookie draft mistakes

Postby PR0v3 » Sat Aug 01, 2020 3:34 pm

Pac_Eddy wrote:
Sat Aug 01, 2020 3:10 pm
PR0v3 wrote:
Sat Aug 01, 2020 11:38 am
Situation is irrelevant as talent is what drives situation. The best offenses, the ones we all want a fantasy piece of, are the best because they have the best talent. The worst offenses, the ones with limited fantasy options, are the worst because they lack talent. Good talent will turn a bad situation into a good situation. Bad talent will turn a good situation into a bad one.

You cannot buy situation, it's literally not possible. Talent is situation, so if you want a player in a good situation, either pay up for the proven talent that is in a good situation because they made it that way, or buy the rookie that creates or maintains a good situation with their talent.
That's a new angle. I don't agree. I think there are plenty of examples of great talents withering on the vine in bad situations, either bad coaches, bad QBs, bad front offices, or a combination of all of those.
In the short term, sure, in the long term, not so much.

Someone like Damien Williams can have great production in a single game, just look at the Super Bowl. He could even produce very well over 6 games or so, look at the end of 2018. Stretch the time frame out to a year though, and Damien Williams gets replaced. Stretch it out over Damien Williams' career, and he is as irrelevant as it gets.

The opposite end of the spectrum is Hopkins. Look at him over the span of a career, and he is a HoFer. Focus in on a three year stretch and he's elite. Focus in more on one season when his QB is Osweiler, and he's a middling producer. Focus in on a single week, and it's anyone's guess.

When I draft rookies, I'm doing so with the assumption that I'm going to have them for a few years minimum, possibly the majority of their career. Expand the time frame to that scope and most of the other variables outside of talent become irrelevant. Do this for enough rookie drafts in a row and immediate situational variables are completely smoothed out. If the goal is to draft the guy who will have the best week one though, ya, you are going to have to probably factor in which rookie has the best chance of seeing the field, you just may not like what you end up with at the end of the season.
12 Team .5 PPR - 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 WR/RB 20 man rosters, 5 man taxi est. 2018
QB: Jimmy G
RB: Penny, Mattison
WR: K. Allen, Boyd, Hollywood, C. Samuel, Deebo, A. Miller, C. Davis, Washington, Ross, Pettis, Trequan
TE: Andrews, Gesicki, Everett, OJ
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Re: Talent is > Landing spot right? Why landing spot has clouded our judgement and led to dynasty rookie draft mistakes

Postby Yarnith » Sat Aug 01, 2020 4:49 pm

Well all things in moderation imo. Marcus Allen in the doghouse for the Raiders would be amazing talent in a terrible situation until he became a Chief, I know not a rookie but broad strokes are broad aka Randy Moss the raider years? yikes! There is plenty of evidence for a rule of 5. If your 5th best RB goes to the best possible place is it fair to move him up to the 1 spot? I would say it is. But your 10th best WR moving to the best possible place? maybe he moves to the 5 spot but the talent just isn't there to trump those top 5 guys regardless.
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QB: Josh Allen, Jared Goff, Dwayne Haskins,
RB: Ezekiel Elliott, Alvin Kamara, Derrius Guice
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Re: Talent is > Landing spot right? Why landing spot has clouded our judgement and led to dynasty rookie draft mistakes

Postby jenkins.math » Sat Aug 01, 2020 5:48 pm

To be a fantasy stud you really need both talent and a good situation to a degree. Sure there are some guys that are so supremely talented they can overcome bad situations (Barkley comes to mind), but those guys are rare. Even Larry Fitzgerald had some down years in his prime due to poor QB play and he is one of the greatest to ever do it.

I also think the talent vs situation game is different by position. Specifically when comparing RBs and WRs. Since WRs typically take a year or 2 to get acclimated I draft much more on talent than situation. In 2 or 3 seasons they may have a brand new coaching staff, QB, etc so I focus on the talent. With RBs though they seem to peak on their rookie deal and depreciate as an asset rapidly after year 4 or year 5. So I think a RBs situation matters a whole lot more than other positions.

I do think there is a limit to how high you can move someone up the draft board, but there are plenty of guys that have failed under the "if only they had been in a different situation/drafted elsewhere" mantra.
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RB: Barkley, Kerryon Johnson, Gus Edwards, Pollard, Brian Hill
WR: OBJ, Mike Evans, Juju, Cooks, Corey Davis, Dede Westbrook, Fitz
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Re: Talent is > Landing spot right? Why landing spot has clouded our judgement and led to dynasty rookie draft mistakes

Postby Johnny B. Goode » Sun Aug 02, 2020 5:32 am

I like the article. You cherry pick your examples to some degree, however, to try and make your point.

2014: Marquis Lee fell from wr4 to wr11 post draft
2015: DGB fell 4 slots
2017: Donta Foreman fell 6 slots
2018: James Washington fell 8 slots, St. Brown fell 22 slots
2019: Hakeem Butler fell an unknown number of slots, same with Harmon

You go in to say draft capital is weighed too much, however that is the best indicator we have. I’m not advocating for going strictly off draft capital, but it needs to be weighed. Otherwise you were drafting Butler or Harmon in the 1st or 2nd round last year in August.

Sure, you found 2 examples from each of the last 5 drafts that were post nfl draft risers and happened to bust. I found several post draft fallers that also busted with a quick skim through.

All of this said, I do agree that if draft capital is pretty close, that we should go with predraft rankings and not focus on landing spot. With CEH, I had him as my RB5 pre draft. He has very similar draft capital to Taylor and Swift. He was almost a 2nd round pick. I adjusted my rankings accordingly, but I did not vault CEH to 1.01 on my list
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QB: Murray, Lock, Stidham, Hurts
RB: Barkley, Zeke, Mixon, J. Taylor, Dobbins, R. Anderson, Dallas, T.Williams, Hasty
WR: T. Hill, Godwin, Kupp, Sutton, Diggs, Gallup, P. Williams, Isabella, JJAW, Higgins, S Miller, Begelton, St. Brown
TE: Engram, Hockenson, Warring, Trautman, Arnold
K: Tucker
TD: PIT
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QB: Darnold, Bridgewater, Stidham (TS)
RB: Sanders, Hunt, Jackson, Samuels, B Hill, Henderson (TS), Taylor (TS), Dobbins (TS)
WR: Diggs, Gallup, Kupp, Sutton, Lazard, P. Williams (TS), JJAW (TS), Isabella (TS), S. Miller (TS), Higgins (TS)
TE: Uzumah, Arnold, Rudolph, Sternberger (TS), Trautman (TS)
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Re: Talent is > Landing spot right? Why landing spot has clouded our judgement and led to dynasty rookie draft mistakes

Postby QB Browns » Sun Aug 02, 2020 9:47 am

PR0v3 wrote:
Sat Aug 01, 2020 3:34 pm
Pac_Eddy wrote:
Sat Aug 01, 2020 3:10 pm
PR0v3 wrote:
Sat Aug 01, 2020 11:38 am
Situation is irrelevant as talent is what drives situation. The best offenses, the ones we all want a fantasy piece of, are the best because they have the best talent. The worst offenses, the ones with limited fantasy options, are the worst because they lack talent. Good talent will turn a bad situation into a good situation. Bad talent will turn a good situation into a bad one.

You cannot buy situation, it's literally not possible. Talent is situation, so if you want a player in a good situation, either pay up for the proven talent that is in a good situation because they made it that way, or buy the rookie that creates or maintains a good situation with their talent.
That's a new angle. I don't agree. I think there are plenty of examples of great talents withering on the vine in bad situations, either bad coaches, bad QBs, bad front offices, or a combination of all of those.
In the short term, sure, in the long term, not so much.

Someone like Damien Williams can have great production in a single game, just look at the Super Bowl. He could even produce very well over 6 games or so, look at the end of 2018. Stretch the time frame out to a year though, and Damien Williams gets replaced. Stretch it out over Damien Williams' career, and he is as irrelevant as it gets.

The opposite end of the spectrum is Hopkins. Look at him over the span of a career, and he is a HoFer. Focus in on a three year stretch and he's elite. Focus in more on one season when his QB is Osweiler, and he's a middling producer. Focus in on a single week, and it's anyone's guess.

When I draft rookies, I'm doing so with the assumption that I'm going to have them for a few years minimum, possibly the majority of their career. Expand the time frame to that scope and most of the other variables outside of talent become irrelevant. Do this for enough rookie drafts in a row and immediate situational variables are completely smoothed out. If the goal is to draft the guy who will have the best week one though, ya, you are going to have to probably factor in which rookie has the best chance of seeing the field, you just may not like what you end up with at the end of the season.
This is true, but the reality is that a large part of our rosters are bound to end up a lot closer to Damien Williams rather than DeAndre Hopkins (talent-wise) so opportunity is still something to be mindful of. I feel like situation/opportunity obviously matters but is far more fluid than talent so when wanting to best long term results talent should trump immediate opportunity.

I really like the example of CEH, Dobbins, and Swift from this draft class. Swift in particular should offer a case study of sorts into the talent vs situation debate. (Although I think it might be fair to say that Kerryon has already given us an example of someone falling victim to a poor situation)
10 team, 2 QB, 3 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1WR/TE, 1 RB/WR/TE, K, DEF, .5 ppr

QB: C. Wentz, D. Prescott, S. Darnold, B. Mayfield

RB: A. Kamara, S. Barkley, S. Michel, C. Carson, R. Mostert, D. Thompson, J. Dobbins, A. Dillon, J. Kelley, D. Harris, J. Howard

WR: M. Evans, M. Thomas, D. Adams, K. Allen, A. Robinson, A. Miller, H. Butler, M. Boykin, P. Williams, C. Lamb, C. Claypool

TE: D. Waller, J. Sternberger


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