Clyde Edwards-Helaire is your new 1.01

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Re: Clyde Edwards-Helaire is your new 1.01

Postby FantasyFreak » Tue Jun 30, 2020 12:01 pm

OhCruelestRanter wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 11:50 am
FantasyFreak wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 11:27 am
OhCruelestRanter wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 11:20 am
I was also concerned about it, and the point that KC doesn’t ask their RBs to do that in the first place is a reassuring one.

I still think that CEH is a limited athlete, and I would (and have) trade back before taking him as the 1.01. There’s effectively no precedent for a guy both that small and that slow finding the kind of success we’re projecting for CEH, but with PPR scoring and a ton of probably targets suggests he’ll be a strong fantasy producer. His career may force people to re-evaluate RB analysis.
I mean, Jacobs was a guy that didn't really have a good comp, either. Little production, terrible 40 time, first round pedigree. I'd be more concerned with Clyde if he didn't have an upper percentile burst, and clearly show his agility and strength on the field. His athleticism in a football context, other than 40, is actually quite good, to me. The burst definitely shows up when you watch him. He's not going to break long runs like JT, but his athleticism to be able to make guys miss behind the LOS is something I don't see from JT to nearly the same level. It's apples and oranges, with those two. Completely different backs, which makes the 1.01 debate that much more interesting, as it's two players with very little similarities at all.
Jacobs was also 220 and ran 4.52 at his second pro-day coming off an injury. After you adjust 4.52 to 4.57, there’s plenty of precedent for guys like that- Kareem Hunt, Frank Gore, Alf Morris and Mark Ingram come to mind. He wasn’t prototypical, sure. But big backs without great athleticism have succeeded. With regard to Helaire, I think the only significant fantasy assets who were that small and that slow are Singletary and Dion Lewis.

Anyways, more importantly, Jacobs was the 1.01 in a much weaker class and wasn’t a late first/early second startup value. Helaire is going 2.01 ahead of Jacobs right now (as well as going ahead of Taylor). This time last year, Jacobs was the 3.03 in startups, which felt very reasonable.

Ultimately I just feel like it’s a huge investment for a guy that was going 40 spots lower in startups before the NFL draft. With that type of capital, I would just rather have somebody who’s got a profile more consistent with sustained NFL success, and if I can trade back and get something else, even better.

I’ll get some in redraft, where his RB14 status on Yahoo looks like a strong value.
Fair. I am not worried, I'll draft him where I can. I think the floor/ceiling combo (I am talking strictly PPR) is very attractive in that offense. 40 time doesn't concern me, as he confirmed the burst I saw on tape at the combine, and his agility and contact balance are really good. I just think he's a really good back, and the KC landing spot gives me way more confidence than most other spots. I'd be lying if I would consider him this high if he went to most other teams, and I don't draft simply on landing spot, but there are some spots that just matter, and being the main back in a Mahomes/Reid offense is one of those. If I didn't like him at all pre draft at all, I would not take him at the cost. As much as I liked JT early on (and still do), I am seeing the flaws in his game more now that I have had time to sit down and watch more. Luckily my drafts were late, where I had picks to take them. I will end up with both players, depending on the league, and glad to have both.
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Re: Clyde Edwards-Helaire is your new 1.01

Postby dynastyninja » Tue Jun 30, 2020 12:48 pm

Some level of concern is warranted with CEH, but it doesn't sway me too much. I've definitely come around to him as the 1.01 now.

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Re: Clyde Edwards-Helaire is your new 1.01

Postby IZigUZag » Tue Jun 30, 2020 12:59 pm

OhCruelestRanter wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 11:50 am
FantasyFreak wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 11:27 am
OhCruelestRanter wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 11:20 am
I was also concerned about it, and the point that KC doesn’t ask their RBs to do that in the first place is a reassuring one.

I still think that CEH is a limited athlete, and I would (and have) trade back before taking him as the 1.01. There’s effectively no precedent for a guy both that small and that slow finding the kind of success we’re projecting for CEH, but with PPR scoring and a ton of probably targets suggests he’ll be a strong fantasy producer. His career may force people to re-evaluate RB analysis.
I mean, Jacobs was a guy that didn't really have a good comp, either. Little production, terrible 40 time, first round pedigree. I'd be more concerned with Clyde if he didn't have an upper percentile burst, and clearly show his agility and strength on the field. His athleticism in a football context, other than 40, is actually quite good, to me. The burst definitely shows up when you watch him. He's not going to break long runs like JT, but his athleticism to be able to make guys miss behind the LOS is something I don't see from JT to nearly the same level. It's apples and oranges, with those two. Completely different backs, which makes the 1.01 debate that much more interesting, as it's two players with very little similarities at all.
Jacobs was also 220 and ran 4.52 at his second pro-day coming off an injury. After you adjust 4.52 to 4.57, there’s plenty of precedent for guys like that- Kareem Hunt, Frank Gore, Alf Morris and Mark Ingram come to mind. He wasn’t prototypical, sure. But big backs without great athleticism have succeeded. With regard to Helaire, I think the only significant fantasy assets who were that small and that slow are Singletary and Dion Lewis.

Anyways, more importantly, Jacobs was the 1.01 in a much weaker class and wasn’t a late first/early second startup value. Helaire is going 2.01 ahead of Jacobs right now (as well as going ahead of Taylor). This time last year, Jacobs was the 3.03 in startups, which felt very reasonable.

Ultimately I just feel like it’s a huge investment for a guy that was going 40 spots lower in startups before the NFL draft. With that type of capital, I would just rather have somebody who’s got a profile more consistent with sustained NFL success, and if I can trade back and get something else, even better.

I’ll get some in redraft, where his RB14 status on Yahoo looks like a strong value.
Exactly, there's a lot of reasons to like CEH and I'm by no means saying he's going to bust or that he isn't worthy of going 1.01... but people are valuing him as if he's already a star in the NFL. His startup ADP is absolutely bonkers, and he's already being valued near his ceiling despite his non-prototypical profile, and his one year wonder red flag.

People seem willing to chase into the headwinds of history here on the basis of his situation being too good to fail.. and so long as people are willing to value him so highly, trading out of his draft slot and letting them take on that risk feels like the optimal play.

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Re: Clyde Edwards-Helaire is your new 1.01

Postby Lord_Varys » Tue Jun 30, 2020 1:09 pm

AkaliWarrior wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 7:47 pm
When I see a player with so much positivity, across the board, with almost no dissent, I'll do the head-fake and run the other direction. There are so many CEH truthers, that he's bound to fail. Even if it is up to the fantasy Gods, he's bound to be a middling talent or even a bust. Call it the Madden Cover curse of the fantasy community, but there is so much one-way love for this guy, that it's bound to come crashing down.
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Re: Clyde Edwards-Helaire is your new 1.01

Postby OhCruelestRanter » Tue Jun 30, 2020 1:14 pm

Lord_Varys wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 1:09 pm
AkaliWarrior wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 7:47 pm
When I see a player with so much positivity, across the board, with almost no dissent, I'll do the head-fake and run the other direction. There are so many CEH truthers, that he's bound to fail. Even if it is up to the fantasy Gods, he's bound to be a middling talent or even a bust. Call it the Madden Cover curse of the fantasy community, but there is so much one-way love for this guy, that it's bound to come crashing down.
Image
Yeah... the last guy with this much "positivity, across the board, with almost no dissent" was Saquon Barkley. Before that it was Zeke. This is a bad point.

CEH isn't even unanimously loved; he actually very slightly lost a poll here between CEH and Taylor. There's plenty of people like me who like him, just less than consensus.
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Re: Clyde Edwards-Helaire is your new 1.01

Postby YouMightDieTryin » Tue Jun 30, 2020 1:58 pm

Sometimes you have to create your own mold when you don't fit one.
10-Team Dynasty League QB/RB/RB/WR/WR/WR/FLEX (23 man rosters + 2 IR + 2 Taxi, non-PPR scoring)
QB: Brady, Mayfield
RB: Saquon, Elliott, CEH, K.Hunt, Antonio Gibson, Malcolm Brown, Justin Jackson
WR: OBJ, Kupp, B.Cooks, D.Parker, Jeudy, Pittman, Shenault, Tyler Johnson, ESB, Scotty Miller, Sims Jr
TE: H.Henry, C.Herndon, I Smith Jr
Taxi: Edwards, Herbert
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Re: Clyde Edwards-Helaire is your new 1.01

Postby IZigUZag » Tue Jun 30, 2020 2:11 pm

YouMightDieTryin wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 1:58 pm
Sometimes you have to create your own mold when you don't fit one.
There are plenty of RBs that fit CEH's mold, most of them just aren't particularly good fantasy RBs. Outliers certainly exist, but betting on them is a risky proposition. He's not the lock that Zeke and Gurley were, yet his startup ADP is identical to their rookie years.

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Re: Clyde Edwards-Helaire is your new 1.01

Postby YouMightDieTryin » Tue Jun 30, 2020 2:15 pm

IZigUZag wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 2:11 pm
YouMightDieTryin wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 1:58 pm
Sometimes you have to create your own mold when you don't fit one.
There are plenty of RBs that fit CEH's mold, most of them just aren't particularly good fantasy RBs. Outliers certainly exist, but betting on them is a risky proposition. He's not the lock that Zeke and Gurley were, yet his startup ADP is identical to their rookie years.
Oh, I agree. I personally wanted JT over CEH just for that factor. I'm just trying to pysch myself up as I picked him at 1.2.
10-Team Dynasty League QB/RB/RB/WR/WR/WR/FLEX (23 man rosters + 2 IR + 2 Taxi, non-PPR scoring)
QB: Brady, Mayfield
RB: Saquon, Elliott, CEH, K.Hunt, Antonio Gibson, Malcolm Brown, Justin Jackson
WR: OBJ, Kupp, B.Cooks, D.Parker, Jeudy, Pittman, Shenault, Tyler Johnson, ESB, Scotty Miller, Sims Jr
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Re: Clyde Edwards-Helaire is your new 1.01

Postby OhCruelestRanter » Tue Jun 30, 2020 2:55 pm

IZigUZag wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 2:11 pm
YouMightDieTryin wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 1:58 pm
Sometimes you have to create your own mold when you don't fit one.
There are plenty of RBs that fit CEH's mold, most of them just aren't particularly good fantasy RBs. Outliers certainly exist, but betting on them is a risky proposition. He's not the lock that Zeke and Gurley were, yet his startup ADP is identical to their rookie years.
Exactly. If a player is going to go that early in startups as a rookie, ideally it would be somebody with a nearly perfect profile, ala Barkley/Zeke/Gurley.
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Re: Clyde Edwards-Helaire is your new 1.01

Postby Cameron Giles » Tue Jun 30, 2020 4:24 pm

IZigUZag wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 2:11 pm
YouMightDieTryin wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 1:58 pm
Sometimes you have to create your own mold when you don't fit one.
There are plenty of RBs that fit CEH's mold, most of them just aren't particularly good fantasy RBs. Outliers certainly exist, but betting on them is a risky proposition. He's not the lock that Zeke and Gurley were, yet his startup ADP is identical to their rookie years.
CEH landed in the most optimal system for his skillset. That said, I agree. CEH is a nice player, but it's very clear his value is inflated mostly because of landing spot.

That said, pre-draft we compared him in some ways to Devonta Freeman, who is an outlier. Freeman landed in a great scheme with Kyle Shanahan and produced big numbers in Atlanta. It's hard to bank on someone being an outlier like Freeman, but CEH has a optimal script to do it.

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Re: Clyde Edwards-Helaire is your new 1.01

Postby PR0v3 » Tue Jun 30, 2020 4:45 pm

Cameron Giles wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 4:24 pm
IZigUZag wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 2:11 pm
YouMightDieTryin wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 1:58 pm
Sometimes you have to create your own mold when you don't fit one.
There are plenty of RBs that fit CEH's mold, most of them just aren't particularly good fantasy RBs. Outliers certainly exist, but betting on them is a risky proposition. He's not the lock that Zeke and Gurley were, yet his startup ADP is identical to their rookie years.
CEH landed in the most optimal system for his skillset. That said, I agree. CEH is a nice player, but it's very clear his value is inflated mostly because of landing spot.

That said, pre-draft we compared him in some ways to Devonta Freeman, who is an outlier. Freeman landed in a great scheme with Kyle Shanahan and produced big numbers in Atlanta. It's hard to bank on someone being an outlier like Freeman, but CEH has a optimal script to do it.
Is his value inflated because of landing spot or was his value pre-draft deflated due to questions surrounding proper utilization of his skillset? Any coach can hand the ball off to a guy and ask him to run forward. Not every coach can scheme to get the ball in their playmakers hands through the air.
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Re: Clyde Edwards-Helaire is your new 1.01

Postby Jigga94 » Tue Jun 30, 2020 4:56 pm

Cameron Giles wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 4:24 pm
IZigUZag wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 2:11 pm
YouMightDieTryin wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 1:58 pm
Sometimes you have to create your own mold when you don't fit one.
There are plenty of RBs that fit CEH's mold, most of them just aren't particularly good fantasy RBs. Outliers certainly exist, but betting on them is a risky proposition. He's not the lock that Zeke and Gurley were, yet his startup ADP is identical to their rookie years.
CEH landed in the most optimal system for his skillset. That said, I agree. CEH is a nice player, but it's very clear his value is inflated mostly because of landing spot.

That said, pre-draft we compared him in some ways to Devonta Freeman, who is an outlier. Freeman landed in a great scheme with Kyle Shanahan and produced big numbers in Atlanta. It's hard to bank on someone being an outlier like Freeman, but CEH has a optimal script to do it.
Very well said
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Re: Clyde Edwards-Helaire is your new 1.01

Postby ericanadian » Tue Jun 30, 2020 5:16 pm

PR0v3 wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 4:45 pm
Cameron Giles wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 4:24 pm
IZigUZag wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 2:11 pm


There are plenty of RBs that fit CEH's mold, most of them just aren't particularly good fantasy RBs. Outliers certainly exist, but betting on them is a risky proposition. He's not the lock that Zeke and Gurley were, yet his startup ADP is identical to their rookie years.
CEH landed in the most optimal system for his skillset. That said, I agree. CEH is a nice player, but it's very clear his value is inflated mostly because of landing spot.

That said, pre-draft we compared him in some ways to Devonta Freeman, who is an outlier. Freeman landed in a great scheme with Kyle Shanahan and produced big numbers in Atlanta. It's hard to bank on someone being an outlier like Freeman, but CEH has a optimal script to do it.
Is his value inflated because of landing spot or was his value pre-draft deflated due to questions surrounding proper utilization of his skillset? Any coach can hand the ball off to a guy and ask him to run forward. Not every coach can scheme to get the ball in their playmakers hands through the air.
Are they going to be doing a lot of scheming to get the ball to CEH when they have Kelce & Tyreek though? I think he might even have a fight with Watkins & Hardman.
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Re: Clyde Edwards-Helaire is your new 1.01

Postby PR0v3 » Tue Jun 30, 2020 5:52 pm

ericanadian wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 5:16 pm
PR0v3 wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 4:45 pm
Cameron Giles wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 4:24 pm


CEH landed in the most optimal system for his skillset. That said, I agree. CEH is a nice player, but it's very clear his value is inflated mostly because of landing spot.

That said, pre-draft we compared him in some ways to Devonta Freeman, who is an outlier. Freeman landed in a great scheme with Kyle Shanahan and produced big numbers in Atlanta. It's hard to bank on someone being an outlier like Freeman, but CEH has a optimal script to do it.
Is his value inflated because of landing spot or was his value pre-draft deflated due to questions surrounding proper utilization of his skillset? Any coach can hand the ball off to a guy and ask him to run forward. Not every coach can scheme to get the ball in their playmakers hands through the air.
Are they going to be doing a lot of scheming to get the ball to CEH when they have Kelce & Tyreek though? I think he might even have a fight with Watkins & Hardman.
I think Andy Reid’s scheme inherently fits CEH’s skillset. I don’t think there necessarily needs to be any additional alterations to what they already do in order to get the ball in CEH’s hands in the areas of the field he thrives in. You don’t have to run specific plays designed in a specific way for a specific player in order for the general offensive structure to support a player.

In my opinion, CEH was the most talented RB in the class for what he projects to do. I don’t believe you can isolate talent in a vacuum, there has to be a defined benchmark before you can judge talent relative to it. JT was only viewed as the consensus top talent pre-draft because up until the draft the talent benchmark was the combine.
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Re: Clyde Edwards-Helaire is your new 1.01

Postby FantasyFreak » Tue Jun 30, 2020 6:05 pm

PR0v3 wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 5:52 pm
ericanadian wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 5:16 pm
PR0v3 wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 4:45 pm


Is his value inflated because of landing spot or was his value pre-draft deflated due to questions surrounding proper utilization of his skillset? Any coach can hand the ball off to a guy and ask him to run forward. Not every coach can scheme to get the ball in their playmakers hands through the air.
Are they going to be doing a lot of scheming to get the ball to CEH when they have Kelce & Tyreek though? I think he might even have a fight with Watkins & Hardman.
I think Andy Reid’s scheme inherently fits CEH’s skillset. I don’t think there necessarily needs to be any additional alterations to what they already do in order to get the ball in CEH’s hands in the areas of the field he thrives in. You don’t have to run specific plays designed in a specific way for a specific player in order for the general offensive structure to support a player.

In my opinion, CEH was the most talented RB in the class for what he projects to do. I don’t believe you can isolate talent in a vacuum, there has to be a defined benchmark before you can judge talent relative to it.
Another thing Clyde has going for him, is that KC faces a ton of light boxes. Williams last year, faced an average of 6 defenders in the box. He faced a light box a whopping 60.4 percent of the time, and only faced stacked boxes 11.7 percent of the time.
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