Can't fully dive in right now, but after skimming your approach seems solid.nathanq42 wrote: ↑Fri May 22, 2020 3:00 pmAfter much deliberation between CEH and JT I think I have to roll with CEH. I modelled out what we can expect from each of them based on their teams' 2019 production out of the backfield.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing
Above is a link to how I though about it. Feel free to download and play with it yourself, work on it with other players to see how they might perform.
I would say that the assumptions for Taylor are pretty lofty (70% market share of 2019 rushing attempts (279) and a 5.25 YPC) where as CEH's are pretty close to consensus I would say (65% of rushes and targets to the backfield in 2019, with a YPC of 4.5)
Main takeaways is that Taylor will slightly out score CEH in standard but has much more room to fall compared to CEH's assumptions, CEH takes the lead in PPR for obvious reasons. Both will be solid producers, but I think CEH will out produce since he has less optimistic assumptions.
Lemme know what you think lads
I'll say, though. Any time I've ever tried to really project a player it went out the window during week 1 of the season. The NFL is really unpredictable.