More 2020 Hype: "If You Need A RB or WR, this is the draft for you."

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Re: More 2020 Hype: "If You Need A RB or WR, this is the draft for you."

Postby dynastyninja » Fri May 22, 2020 3:28 pm

nathanq42 wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 3:00 pm
After much deliberation between CEH and JT I think I have to roll with CEH. I modelled out what we can expect from each of them based on their teams' 2019 production out of the backfield.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing

Above is a link to how I though about it. Feel free to download and play with it yourself, work on it with other players to see how they might perform.

I would say that the assumptions for Taylor are pretty lofty (70% market share of 2019 rushing attempts (279) and a 5.25 YPC) where as CEH's are pretty close to consensus I would say (65% of rushes and targets to the backfield in 2019, with a YPC of 4.5)

Main takeaways is that Taylor will slightly out score CEH in standard but has much more room to fall compared to CEH's assumptions, CEH takes the lead in PPR for obvious reasons. Both will be solid producers, but I think CEH will out produce since he has less optimistic assumptions.

Lemme know what you think lads
Can't fully dive in right now, but after skimming your approach seems solid.

I'll say, though. Any time I've ever tried to really project a player it went out the window during week 1 of the season. The NFL is really unpredictable.

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Re: More 2020 Hype: "If You Need A RB or WR, this is the draft for you."

Postby IZigUZag » Fri May 22, 2020 3:55 pm

dynastyninja wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 3:28 pm
nathanq42 wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 3:00 pm
After much deliberation between CEH and JT I think I have to roll with CEH. I modelled out what we can expect from each of them based on their teams' 2019 production out of the backfield.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing

Above is a link to how I though about it. Feel free to download and play with it yourself, work on it with other players to see how they might perform.

I would say that the assumptions for Taylor are pretty lofty (70% market share of 2019 rushing attempts (279) and a 5.25 YPC) where as CEH's are pretty close to consensus I would say (65% of rushes and targets to the backfield in 2019, with a YPC of 4.5)

Main takeaways is that Taylor will slightly out score CEH in standard but has much more room to fall compared to CEH's assumptions, CEH takes the lead in PPR for obvious reasons. Both will be solid producers, but I think CEH will out produce since he has less optimistic assumptions.

Lemme know what you think lads
Can't fully dive in right now, but after skimming your approach seems solid.

I'll say, though. Any time I've ever tried to really project a player it went out the window during week 1 of the season. The NFL is really unpredictable.
I'd say 70% marketshare for Taylor in year 1 is pretty lofty, as is 65% for CEH.

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Re: More 2020 Hype: "If You Need A RB or WR, this is the draft for you."

Postby nathanq42 » Fri May 22, 2020 4:47 pm

IZigUZag wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 3:55 pm
dynastyninja wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 3:28 pm
nathanq42 wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 3:00 pm
After much deliberation between CEH and JT I think I have to roll with CEH. I modelled out what we can expect from each of them based on their teams' 2019 production out of the backfield.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing

Above is a link to how I though about it. Feel free to download and play with it yourself, work on it with other players to see how they might perform.

I would say that the assumptions for Taylor are pretty lofty (70% market share of 2019 rushing attempts (279) and a 5.25 YPC) where as CEH's are pretty close to consensus I would say (65% of rushes and targets to the backfield in 2019, with a YPC of 4.5)

Main takeaways is that Taylor will slightly out score CEH in standard but has much more room to fall compared to CEH's assumptions, CEH takes the lead in PPR for obvious reasons. Both will be solid producers, but I think CEH will out produce since he has less optimistic assumptions.

Lemme know what you think lads
Can't fully dive in right now, but after skimming your approach seems solid.

I'll say, though. Any time I've ever tried to really project a player it went out the window during week 1 of the season. The NFL is really unpredictable.
I'd say 70% marketshare for Taylor in year 1 is pretty lofty, as is 65% for CEH.
Really eh? I thought 65% was reasonable for CEH considering the competition he is facing in KC. I do think 70% for Taylor is best case scenario.
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WR Mike Evans, Odell Beckham Junior, DJ Moore, Dede Westbrook, Parris Campbell, Preston Williams, Zach Parscal, James Washington, Hakeem Butler
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Re: More 2020 Hype: "If You Need A RB or WR, this is the draft for you."

Postby Mike11 » Fri May 22, 2020 5:24 pm

nathanq42 wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 3:00 pm
After much deliberation between CEH and JT I think I have to roll with CEH. I modelled out what we can expect from each of them based on their teams' 2019 production out of the backfield.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing

Above is a link to how I though about it. Feel free to download and play with it yourself, work on it with other players to see how they might perform.

I would say that the assumptions for Taylor are pretty lofty (70% market share of 2019 rushing attempts (279) and a 5.25 YPC) where as CEH's are pretty close to consensus I would say (65% of rushes and targets to the backfield in 2019, with a YPC of 4.5)

Main takeaways is that Taylor will slightly out score CEH in standard but has much more room to fall compared to CEH's assumptions, CEH takes the lead in PPR for obvious reasons. Both will be solid producers, but I think CEH will out produce since he has less optimistic assumptions.

Lemme know what you think lads
This is good stuff, I actually did something similar before I picked to make my final decision and quiet honestly no matter how I crunched it for JT it left me feeling like CEH was going to score more.

It doesn’t sometimes matter who the best pure rusher is. Is Austin Ekeler or Alvin Kamara the two best rbs in the league? No but they don’t need to be, ppr and receiving yards as an added component makes them elite fantasy assets. Chubb is a phenomenal rb and anyone is thrilled to own him but we have an idea what his ceiling might be, I think JT can catch fine but he’s never likely to be a 60 catch person which will always limit his upside.

The true value of Saquon and CMC is their receiving floors, and I’m going to bet CEH is more likely to have the possibility of being a top 5 back, I think JT will be a top 7-10 guy if all the cards fall right.
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Re: More 2020 Hype: "If You Need A RB or WR, this is the draft for you."

Postby IZigUZag » Fri May 22, 2020 5:44 pm

nathanq42 wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 4:47 pm
Really eh? I thought 65% was reasonable for CEH considering the competition he is facing in KC. I do think 70% for Taylor is best case scenario.
I realize a lot of people write off Damien Williams; but so far as fit, Damien Williams is every bit as valuable to KC's offense as Marlon Mack is to IND. When he's healthy he's produced at an elite level for KC, and has completely taken over the playoffs two years in a row.

I expect a 50/50 split to start the season for both of these guys; and for Taylor to eventually seize a 70% opportunity share sometime around midseason. CEH might have to wait until Williams leaves in 2021 before he completely takes off in that offense; but we'll see what happens.

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Re: More 2020 Hype: "If You Need A RB or WR, this is the draft for you."

Postby FantasyFreak » Fri May 22, 2020 5:47 pm

IZigUZag wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 5:44 pm
nathanq42 wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 4:47 pm
Really eh? I thought 65% was reasonable for CEH considering the competition he is facing in KC. I do think 70% for Taylor is best case scenario.
I realize a lot of people write off Damien Williams; but so far as fit, Damien Williams is every bit as valuable to KC's offense as Marlon Mack is to IND. When he's healthy he's produced at an elite level for KC, and has completely taken over the playoffs two years in a row.

I expect a 50/50 split to start the season for both of these guys; and for Taylor to eventually seize a 70% opportunity share sometime around midseason. CEH might have to wait until Williams leaves in 2021 before he completely takes off in that offense; but we'll see what happens.
No he didn't. Look at his game logs from this year. Even in the SB, Williams was under 70 yards until that last run where SF completely sold out to stop the first down and the game was basically already over. He was at 4 yards a clip in the SB until then. 17 for 45 vs the Titans and 12 for 47 vs the Texans. He had some TD's, and a few receptions, but literally any RB in that position would have, beyond a few where his speed did come into play. That's a pretty big exaggeration to say he took over IMO. At no point this post season was Damien Williams taking over games. It was Mahomes and his arm. Even with a less than stellar SB, when the game was on the line, it was Mahomes that was the catalyst. That's why he won the MVP.
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Re: More 2020 Hype: "If You Need A RB or WR, this is the draft for you."

Postby dlf_mikeh » Fri May 22, 2020 6:11 pm

I'm always surprised to see people hold Damien Williams in high regard. Can we look at this from a fantasy perspective?

He's been on the Chiefs for 2 years. In that time, you'd want someone you could start on your fantasy team to help you get to the playoffs. Those are the weeks 1-12.

Take a guess as to how many times he reached over 100 yards rushing in those weeks.
Now take a guess as to how many times he rushed for 30 or fewer yards in those weeks.

Done guessing? This will be fun, come play along now. Weeks 1-12 for 2 years = 24 possible games. Last chance to guess.

Over 100 yards: 1 time.
30 and under: 18 times.
3 total rushing touchdowns.
He only played 20 games.
(link)

Would you feel comfortable starting a player like this on your fantasy team if you made the playoffs? Or at all? Just FYI, he didn't do well in weeks 13 and 14 either. He only played 2 games. One for 38 yards, and another for 14 yards. 2 games out of 4 total possible games. This means he wasn't reliable in the first 2 weeks of the fantasy playoffs either. (link)

So when were people starting this scrub? I can already hear the detractors btw. "But Mike. That's not fair. You have to factor in his receiving yards and touchdowns."

Oh ok then. Let's do that aaaaaand....... Not much changed.: LINK

I don't get it. 6 years in the NFL and DWilly has never eclipsed the 500 rushing mark. He benefited from being on a team with an elite offense, but still couldn't produce.

CEH is going to dominate that position. DWill is going to be forgotten after this season.
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Re: More 2020 Hype: "If You Need A RB or WR, this is the draft for you."

Postby StripesOfKC » Fri May 22, 2020 6:21 pm

dlf_mikeh wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 6:11 pm
I'm always surprised to see people hold Damien Williams in high regard. Can we look at this from a fantasy perspective?

He's been on the Chiefs for 2 years. In that time, you'd want someone you could start on your fantasy team to help you get to the playoffs. Those are the weeks 1-12.

Take a guess as to how many times he reached over 100 yards rushing in those weeks.
Now take a guess as to how many times he rushed for 30 or fewer yards in those weeks.

Done guessing? This will be fun, come play along now. Weeks 1-12 for 2 years = 24 possible games. Last chance to guess.

Over 100 yards: 1 time.
30 and under: 18 times.
3 total rushing touchdowns.
He only played 20 games.
(link)

Would you feel comfortable starting a player like this on your fantasy team if you made the playoffs? Or at all? Just FYI, he didn't do well in weeks 13 and 14 either. He only played 2 games. One for 38 yards, and another for 14 yards. 2 games out of 4 total possible games. This means he wasn't reliable in the first 2 weeks of the fantasy playoffs either. (link)

So when were people starting this scrub? I can already hear the detractors btw. "But Mike. That's not fair. You have to factor in his receiving yards and touchdowns."

Oh ok then. Let's do that aaaaaand....... Not much changed.: LINK

I don't get it. 6 years in the NFL and DWilly has never eclipsed the 500 rushing mark. He benefited from being on a team with an elite offense, but still couldn't produce.

CEH is going to dominate that position. DWill is going to be forgotten after this season.
I don’t rate Damien William particularly high even though I appreciate how he turns up his game for playoffs, and mostly agree with this with one caveat. As a rookie, do you think CEH’s pass protection issues could suppress his snap count—especially with shortened camps and such being a possibility?

Long term I agree the backfield is his
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Re: More 2020 Hype: "If You Need A RB or WR, this is the draft for you."

Postby Jigga94 » Fri May 22, 2020 6:23 pm

Damien Williams should have been forgotten a longggg time ago. If he made ANY contribution to your fantasy team, whether it a few weeks fill in or traded away for draft picks, I'd say that's a win.
2QB, 2RB, 3WR, TE, FLEX - PPR - 14 Keepers
QB: Mahomes, Baker, D. Jones, Minshew, Luck
RB: Mostert, Sony, Penny, D. Freeman, Snell, J. Jackson, Hyde, Gaskin
WR: Tyreek, DJM, Julio, Hollywood, Cooks, Preston, Parris, C. Davis, MVS
TE: Andrews, Henry, Fant, Irv
2020: 1.02, 2.02, 3.02, 4.02, 4.08

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QB: Dak, Ryan, Minshew, Cam
RB: CMC, Jacobs, Dobbins, Hunt, Penny, J. Jackson
WR: DJM, Chark, Ruggs, Reagor, Hardman, Mike Will, Diontae, Parris, C. Davis, Lazard
TE: Andrews, Henry, Gesicki
2021: 1, 1, 2, 3

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Re: More 2020 Hype: "If You Need A RB or WR, this is the draft for you."

Postby IZigUZag » Fri May 22, 2020 6:33 pm

dlf_mikeh wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 6:11 pm
I'm always surprised to see people hold Damien Williams in high regard. Can we look at this from a fantasy perspective?

He's been on the Chiefs for 2 years. In that time, you'd want someone you could start on your fantasy team to help you get to the playoffs. Those are the weeks 1-12.

Take a guess as to how many times he reached over 100 yards rushing in those weeks.
Now take a guess as to how many times he rushed for 30 or fewer yards in those weeks.

Done guessing? This will be fun, come play along now. Weeks 1-12 for 2 years = 24 possible games. Last chance to guess.

Over 100 yards: 1 time.
30 and under: 18 times.
3 total rushing touchdowns.
He only played 20 games.
(link)

Would you feel comfortable starting a player like this on your fantasy team if you made the playoffs? Or at all? Just FYI, he didn't do well in weeks 13 and 14 either. He only played 2 games. One for 38 yards, and another for 14 yards. 2 games out of 4 total possible games. This means he wasn't reliable in the first 2 weeks of the fantasy playoffs either. (link)

So when were people starting this scrub? I can already hear the detractors btw. "But Mike. That's not fair. You have to factor in his receiving yards and touchdowns."

Oh ok then. Let's do that aaaaaand....... Not much changed.: LINK

I don't get it. 6 years in the NFL and DWilly has never eclipsed the 500 rushing mark. He benefited from being on a team with an elite offense, but still couldn't produce.

CEH is going to dominate that position. DWill is going to be forgotten after this season.
Why are you using raw numbers to evaluate his value to the KC chiefs? William's has struggled with health his entire career, but in the 5 games he's gone over a 70% snap share since he joined the Chiefs he's averaged 138 total yards, and 1.2 TDs per game.

Now, I can see a world where CEH takes this job and runs with from the onset. I can all see a world where JT does something similar to Marlon Mack... but that is not my expectation

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Re: More 2020 Hype: "If You Need A RB or WR, this is the draft for you."

Postby dlf_mikeh » Fri May 22, 2020 6:35 pm

StripesOfKC wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 6:21 pm
As a rookie, do you think CEH’s pass protection issues could suppress his snap count—especially with shortened camps and such being a possibility?
Could? Yes. By a significant amount? I don't think so.

Pass protection can be learned pretty quickly, and CEH is about as smart a player as I've ever seen (based on interviews and questions that allow him to display his football IQ). I think he'll mostly be used for dump offs if pressure on the QB is applied, and that'll just boost his stock even more.
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Re: More 2020 Hype: "If You Need A RB or WR, this is the draft for you."

Postby dlf_mikeh » Fri May 22, 2020 6:46 pm

IZigUZag wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 6:33 pm
William's has struggled with health his entire career, but in the 5 games he's gone over a 70% snap share since he joined the Chiefs he's averaged 138 total yards, and 1.2 TDs per game.
Struggled with health you say. I agree. That alone is a reason I want to avoid him.

Only 5 games with a 70% snap share? Out of 32 plus playoffs for 2 years. Versus his competition:
-- LeSean McCoy (not currently on a team, benched in the SB)
-- Darwin Thompson
-- Darrell Williams

He was on one of the most prolific offenses in the NFL with basically zero competition. He couldn't stay healthy, and when he did, he only managed 70% 5 times.

He's just the luckiest RB in the NFL. Had Hunt never gotten in trouble, D Williams would be forgotten by now. The Chiefs rolled with whoever the backup was. He has 1 or 2 so-so games, and the cash-strapped Chiefs stuck with him because they had to.

Not attacking you zig, I just....... hate him so much. :P
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Re: More 2020 Hype: "If You Need A RB or WR, this is the draft for you."

Postby IZigUZag » Fri May 22, 2020 7:00 pm

Those were 5 games in the regular season; harder to find the percentages for his playoff games but I imagine an up in snap share is the reason he “turns it up” in the playoffs :lol:

No doubt I want no part of Williams in fantasy this year, but I could see his presence suppressing more of CEH’s opportunity than people expect in 2020.

haha and all good, we’re all just discussing something we’re passionate about :thumbup:

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Re: More 2020 Hype: "If You Need A RB or WR, this is the draft for you."

Postby TimeWillTell » Fri May 22, 2020 8:07 pm

Paging FantasyDumDum.... (Or his alt)
12 Team 1QB 0.5 PPR
Start: 1QB,2RB,3WR,1TE,1Flex,1K,1Def
QB: Wentz, Darnold, Jones
RB: Barkley, Penny
WR: Evans, DJM, AJB, Chark, Davis, P. Williams, Pettis, JJAWS
TE: Andrews, Engram, Hock, Gronk, Herndon, J. Smith, I. Thomas (too many)
K: Some guy
Def: Who knows
2020 Picks: 1.01,1.02,1.03,1.04, 1.08, 1.10, 1.12, 2.03, 2.04, 2.09, 2.12

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Re: More 2020 Hype: "If You Need A RB or WR, this is the draft for you."

Postby Kurt G.O.A.T. » Fri May 22, 2020 8:21 pm

If you were lucky to start d Williams in the finals he gave you - 19, 30 and 25 points in 2018 then 18 points week 16 last season.

This is why ceh is the number 1 pick in ppr.


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