The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is... Jonathan Taylor

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Re: The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is... Jonathan Taylor

Postby moishetreats » Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:28 am

dlf_mikeh wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:52 am
I want players who produce right away. Those who do increase in value. Those who do not decrease in value.
My memory could be off, but weren't you advocating for Miles Sanders last year at 1.02 while also suggesting that he was likely a second-year break-out player?

If my memory is correct, then what's the difference between Sanders in 2019 and Taylor in 2020?

If my memory is incorrect, then shame on me for not going back to search the threads!

Thank you as always for your thoughtful posts, Mike!
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Re: The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is... Jonathan Taylor

Postby OhCruelestRanter » Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:44 am

dlf_mikeh wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:51 am
I have the most accurate RB analysis.
dlf_mikeh wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:51 am
Well, I didn’t mean that and I’ve never actually validated this claim. But I’m nearly 100% accurate.
dlf_mikeh wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:51 am
Also that time I was dead wrong I was just kidding.
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Re: The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is... Jonathan Taylor

Postby Bronco Billy » Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:12 am

FantasyFreak wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:36 am
dlf_mikeh wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:52 am

Also, you had Kalen Ballage over Nick Chubb in your year 1 rankings.

"I like Ballage. No wait, lemme say that again: I LOVE BALLAGE. I think he has a chance to take over the #1 job and run away as the surprise of the draft. I own Ballage in ever league I drafted in. It might not happen until 2019, but it'll happen." -your quote

"Ballage will win the starting job sooner than later, and will be viewed as the best steal in the draft. Ceiling could be number 2 RB from this class." -your quote
The Ballage posts aren't to be taken serious. I owned Ballage in a league and I was in trade talks with a guy for his future 1st. He was an avid user on this forum and loved my opinions, but didn't know that the user on these forums and the person he was negotiating with was the same person. I was trying to squeeze out the deal of a lifetime. He didn't pull the trigger. I kept at it thinking I could eventually get a 2nd. He didn't pull the trigger on that either. Someone else eventually did.
JHC

So you don’t miss except when you do, and when you do then retroactively it was just a joke so it doesn’t count.

Does anyone in here except you take you seriously?

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Re: The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is... Jonathan Taylor

Postby CGW » Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:09 pm

moishetreats wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:28 am
dlf_mikeh wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:52 am
I want players who produce right away. Those who do increase in value. Those who do not decrease in value.
My memory could be off, but weren't you advocating for Miles Sanders last year at 1.02 while also suggesting that he was likely a second-year break-out player?

If my memory is correct, then what's the difference between Sanders in 2019 and Taylor in 2020?

If my memory is incorrect, then shame on me for not going back to search the threads!

Thank you as always for your thoughtful posts, Mike!
I'd say the big difference between last year and this is that Sanders had very minimal competition in the rookie drafts last year, as opposed to the 4-5 standouts this year. Makes it easier to push JTs ranking down.

Still, Mike definitely was drafting Sanders as a 2nd year breakout while holding it against JT...your memory is correct.
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Re: The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is... Jonathan Taylor

Postby mild » Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:13 pm

Bronco Billy wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:12 am
Does anyone in here except you take you seriously?
Yeah, I do.

Everyone take a step back. Mikeh is a baiter in the extreme and loves to lean in on his evaluation record (he HAS been running hot lately) but he's also someone whose actually coached the position - albeit not in the pros. At the end of the day, if you fade JT now "just because Mike said so" then that's on you - this is all stuff that good owners are filing away, and checking against their preconceptions. That's actually valuable, unlike the majority of "IS THERE A CONSENSUS TOP 5 IN THIS DRAFT, I HAVE 1.02 WHAT DO I DO" threads that are all over this board.

Dude is actually bothering to stick his neck out for us to chop it off on the internet. Looks like we nearly beheaded him on Ballage, there... bad look Mike, and I'm sure he agrees. Was the Ballage thing part of an actual RB report he was putting his name to? Whatever the case, Mike, lean back fella - we know you're good at RB opinions, you should just trust that we're listening. No need to qualify it.

Lets get back on topic. Mike - when is this article going to run that you mentioned? And when can we expect a little more grand reveals on these 2020 RB's...?

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Re: The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is... Jonathan Taylor

Postby FantasyFreak » Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:41 pm

mild wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:13 pm
Bronco Billy wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:12 am
Does anyone in here except you take you seriously?
Yeah, I do.

Everyone take a step back. Mikeh is a baiter in the extreme and loves to lean in on his evaluation record (he HAS been running hot lately) but he's also someone whose actually coached the position - albeit not in the pros. At the end of the day, if you fade JT now "just because Mike said so" then that's on you - this is all stuff that good owners are filing away, and checking against their preconceptions. That's actually valuable, unlike the majority of "IS THERE A CONSENSUS TOP 5 IN THIS DRAFT, I HAVE 1.02 WHAT DO I DO" threads that are all over this board.

Dude is actually bothering to stick his neck out for us to chop it off on the internet. Looks like we nearly beheaded him on Ballage, there... bad look Mike, and I'm sure he agrees. Was the Ballage thing part of an actual RB report he was putting his name to? Whatever the case, Mike, lean back fella - we know you're good at RB opinions, you should just trust that we're listening. No need to qualify it.

Lets get back on topic. Mike - when is this article going to run that you mentioned? And when can we expect a little more grand reveals on these 2020 RB's...?
It was on DD's RB report 2018. I think this thread he may have mentioned the idea of doing his own. He went into detail, and color co-ordinated the rankings just like DD did. It's a 20 page thread, that's where the takes were from.

viewtopic.php?f=5&t=153507&start=405#p1475382

FWIW, I undersold Wilkins a bit, as I called him a camp body/practice squad player, where in fact he did make the roster. I was being hyperbolic a bit, but I honestly thought he'd be a borderline NFL player. He's still in the league a few years later, so I did undersell him. We all make mistakes, I was simply pointing them out due to the fact he said he was more accurate than anyone else. Not trying to start a witch hunt, but those types of claims in any line of work/conversation require cross examination IMO, that's all.
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Re: The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is... Jonathan Taylor

Postby cantguardjake » Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:56 pm

I loved Mikes report last year and look forward to this years but cmon, you clearly liked Ballage enough to draft him (ADP was a second at the time) - let’s not pretend you suddenly thought he was a spud all of 2 weeks later. Or was drafting him part of the ruse too?

I would have run with the “well technically he did win the starting job” angle myself tbh, but each to their own :wink:

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Re: The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is... Jonathan Taylor

Postby mild » Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:10 pm

FantasyFreak wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:41 pm
Not trying to start a witch hunt, but those types of claims in any line of work/conversation require cross examination IMO, that's all.
Absolutely agree, and I don't think you're in the wrong here FF. Always value your opinions and enjoy bantering with you.

It's easy to smash people with hindsight in this game, especially ones who plant flags this early in the process. I just don't want to discourage people from actually staking claims to this sort of stuff, especially ones who put in such extreme time and effort like DD and Mikeh.

I'd also definitely still like to hear an explanation on why Sanders is a good Year 2 breakout worth waiting on, and JT is not. 8-) My theory is that it's to do with the talent pool in this draft vs. 2019's though, and how Sanders was already proven with work as a pass catcher coming out of college - he already had the 3 Down skillset, whereas we don't *know* for certain that JT does.

Still praying that I'm seeing Dobbins at 1.05 in my SF league, too... I hope none of my league mates are Mikeh fans :lol:

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Re: The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is... Jonathan Taylor

Postby AussieMate » Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:21 pm

mild wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:10 pm
FantasyFreak wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:41 pm
Not trying to start a witch hunt, but those types of claims in any line of work/conversation require cross examination IMO, that's all.
Absolutely agree, and I don't think you're in the wrong here FF. Always value your opinions and enjoy bantering with you.

It's easy to smash people with hindsight in this game, especially ones who plant flags this early in the process. I just don't want to discourage people from actually staking claims to this sort of stuff, especially ones who put in such extreme time and effort like DD and Mikeh.

I'd also definitely still like to hear an explanation on why Sanders is a good Year 2 breakout worth waiting on, and JT is not. 8-) My theory is that it's to do with the talent pool in this draft vs. 2019's though, and how Sanders was already proven with work as a pass catcher coming out of college - he already had the 3 Down skillset, whereas we don't *know* for certain that JT does.

Still praying that I'm seeing Dobbins at 1.05 in my SF league, too... I hope none of my league mates are Mikeh fans :lol:
My theory is similar to yours, or potentially the talent gap, he believed Sanders would score less than Jacobs year 1 but not by a lot maybe (Jacobs and Sanders aren't that far apart in adp coming into year 2), whilst he might be predicting Dobbins and Swift to vastly outscore JT making it not worth the wait.

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Re: The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is... Jonathan Taylor

Postby IZigUZag » Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:54 pm

AussieMate wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:21 pm
mild wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:10 pm
FantasyFreak wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:41 pm
Not trying to start a witch hunt, but those types of claims in any line of work/conversation require cross examination IMO, that's all.
Absolutely agree, and I don't think you're in the wrong here FF. Always value your opinions and enjoy bantering with you.

It's easy to smash people with hindsight in this game, especially ones who plant flags this early in the process. I just don't want to discourage people from actually staking claims to this sort of stuff, especially ones who put in such extreme time and effort like DD and Mikeh.

I'd also definitely still like to hear an explanation on why Sanders is a good Year 2 breakout worth waiting on, and JT is not. 8-) My theory is that it's to do with the talent pool in this draft vs. 2019's though, and how Sanders was already proven with work as a pass catcher coming out of college - he already had the 3 Down skillset, whereas we don't *know* for certain that JT does.

Still praying that I'm seeing Dobbins at 1.05 in my SF league, too... I hope none of my league mates are Mikeh fans :lol:
My theory is similar to yours, or potentially the talent gap, he believed Sanders would score less than Jacobs year 1 but not by a lot maybe (Jacobs and Sanders aren't that far apart in adp coming into year 2), whilst he might be predicting Dobbins and Swift to vastly outscore JT making it not worth the wait.
I'd say that 2019 didn't have any 5 star prospects (Jacobs was widely lauded, but his measurables were not great), so it'd make more sense to go with the more athletic and rougher prospect in Sanders.

This year, I'd say there are 3 5 star RB's in Taylor, Swift, Dobbins. If you don't believe Taylor is NFL ready at this point, then it makes sense to go with one of the other 2 5 star RB's in Swift/Dobbins.

I believe the flaw in this argument is: Taylor is not terrible, so he will likely be productive wherever he lands regardless of how far away he is as a finished project. Given his athletic upside, he will likely be valued near the other two, if not higher at the end of the season even if he's marginally less productive; and if Taylor shores up his weaknesses (which is very likely given his work ethic, improvements in college, and how much RB's tend to improve in his areas of weakness in year 2) he'll probably end up the more valuable asset in year 2+

But we'll see. It's entirely possible that Dobbins and or Swift are simply the more talented RB's and will continue to be valued higher than him in the future.

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Re: The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is... Jonathan Taylor

Postby FantasyFreak » Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:05 pm

Bronco Billy wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:12 am
FantasyFreak wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:36 am
dlf_mikeh wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:52 am

Also, you had Kalen Ballage over Nick Chubb in your year 1 rankings.

"I like Ballage. No wait, lemme say that again: I LOVE BALLAGE. I think he has a chance to take over the #1 job and run away as the surprise of the draft. I own Ballage in ever league I drafted in. It might not happen until 2019, but it'll happen." -your quote

"Ballage will win the starting job sooner than later, and will be viewed as the best steal in the draft. Ceiling could be number 2 RB from this class." -your quote
The Ballage posts aren't to be taken serious. I owned Ballage in a league and I was in trade talks with a guy for his future 1st. He was an avid user on this forum and loved my opinions, but didn't know that the user on these forums and the person he was negotiating with was the same person. I was trying to squeeze out the deal of a lifetime. He didn't pull the trigger. I kept at it thinking I could eventually get a 2nd. He didn't pull the trigger on that either. Someone else eventually did.
JHC

So you don’t miss except when you do, and when you do then retroactively it was just a joke so it doesn’t count.

Does anyone in here except you take you seriously?
Curious as to what happened here. Our quotes appear to be reversed.
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Re: The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is... Jonathan Taylor

Postby DJB » Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:11 pm

https://twitter.com/MoveTheSticks/statu ... 83616?s=20

Here are the numbers. PFF credited Taylor with 32 pass block reps this year.

Dobbins had 148.

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Re: The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is... Jonathan Taylor

Postby FantasyFreak » Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:30 pm

DJB wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:11 pm
https://twitter.com/MoveTheSticks/statu ... 83616?s=20

Here are the numbers. PFF credited Taylor with 32 pass block reps this year.

Dobbins had 148.
...and yet I still see him knocked for his pass protection, seeing it even being called his worst trait.
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Evans, Sutton, Woods, Agholor, Sanu, Higgins, D Robinson, T Taylor
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Re: The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is... Jonathan Taylor

Postby bjd5211 » Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:49 pm

FantasyFreak wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:30 pm
DJB wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:11 pm
https://twitter.com/MoveTheSticks/statu ... 83616?s=20

Here are the numbers. PFF credited Taylor with 32 pass block reps this year.

Dobbins had 148.
...and yet I still see him knocked for his pass protection, seeing it even being called his worst trait.
Just because he did it a decent amount doesn't necessarily mean he did it well. Basically the inverse of the Taylor receiving/pass pro argument, just because he wasn't asked to do it a lot doesn’t mean he was incapable.

I'm not saying Dobbins is bad at pass protection, I really don't know, but him averaging about 10 pass block reps per game doesn't automatically mean he did it well. A lot of those plays he probably didn't even have to do a whole lot, just stand guard in case the D sent an extra guy or on the rare occurance a defender got past their phenomenal OL.

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Re: The Most Over-Rated 2020 Rookie RB Is... Jonathan Taylor

Postby DJB » Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:23 pm

FantasyFreak wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:30 pm
DJB wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:11 pm
https://twitter.com/MoveTheSticks/statu ... 83616?s=20

Here are the numbers. PFF credited Taylor with 32 pass block reps this year.

Dobbins had 148.
...and yet I still see him knocked for his pass protection, seeing it even being called his worst trait.
:wtf:

First thing I saw when I studied Dobbins was his pass protection and how good it was. To me hes the best pass protector of all the available RB's in the draft.

Those other people are crazy.

https://twitter.com/MoveTheSticks/statu ... 05030?s=20

DJ had positive reviews of JT pass protection.
Last edited by DJB on Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.


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