More 2020 Hype: "If You Need A RB or WR, this is the draft for you."

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Re: More 2020 Hype: "If You Need A RB or WR, this is the draft for you."

Postby FantasyFreak » Fri Jan 17, 2020 5:19 pm

Kmani6 wrote:
Fri Jan 17, 2020 5:04 pm
FantasyFreak wrote:
Fri Jan 17, 2020 4:48 pm
Kmani6 wrote:
Fri Jan 17, 2020 4:42 pm


Nowhere did I imply a 6th round pick over a 2nd round pick was a good idea. I actually said what you did exactly. Many of the round projections were 2-3 for the players I listed. Many of us don’t care if a RB is selected in the 1st vs the 2nd or the 2nd vs the 3rd. In fact most fantasy people had guys like Chubb, kerryon, and guice all over guys like penny or Michel... That’s good enough to leave up to our own individual rankings, which are 99 percent not “our own”, but compilations of many other analysts we see online. The analysts we look at like PFF, or mark Walsman or whoever else are just as good as any NFL scout. That’s why the NFL scouts miss on half the WR/RB position everY year, and is why some teams have good drafts and some have bad ones lol. That’s pretty obvious. To think all the NFL scouts are making the best decisions is just outright wrong, and can be seen yearly. My favorite picks from this past year were jj Arcega Whiteside and Andy Isabella over
DK, Mclaurin, Montgomery, and Singletary. The Rookie draft ADP calculator had DK Montgomery and singletary as all firsts, but Whiteside and Isabella as late 2nds to early 3rds. We don’t care about draft spot...
Right. Within reason.
Agreed, and hopefully obviously implied. Don’t think I’ve ever seen anyone ever put a 6th round rookie in their 1st round fantasy rookie draft...
No but I saw/heard of Darwin Thompson going around the early/mid 2nd of some leagues last year, with players who were 3rd round picks in the NFL draft still around. Guys like McLaurin etc.

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Re: More 2020 Hype: "If You Need A RB or WR, this is the draft for you."

Postby Kmani6 » Fri Jan 17, 2020 5:47 pm

FantasyFreak wrote:
Fri Jan 17, 2020 5:19 pm
Kmani6 wrote:
Fri Jan 17, 2020 5:04 pm
FantasyFreak wrote:
Fri Jan 17, 2020 4:48 pm


Right. Within reason.
Agreed, and hopefully obviously implied. Don’t think I’ve ever seen anyone ever put a 6th round rookie in their 1st round fantasy rookie draft...
No but I saw/heard of Darwin Thompson going around the early/mid 2nd of some leagues last year, with players who were 3rd round picks in the NFL draft still around. Guys like McLaurin etc.
Yeah I guess misinformed chiefs backfield hype. In reality his ADP was 24. Mclaurin was on average under-drafted (ADP 30). I took him because Brett Kollmann said he’d be a star.

Now tell me if you think that’s what I was implying by my original post. I’ll say it one more time for the haters. Amongst the first 3 rounds, and more specifically within each round up to and including the 3rd round, a lot of fantasy owners make their own decisions based on fantasy outlets rather than draft order. This explains the huge rookie ADP difference between Montgomery and someone like Arcega-Whiteside- it’s pretty self explanatory.
Dynasty Team 1:

10 Man, Full PPR, .2 PPC, Double Flex

QB: Dak Prescott
RB: Joe Mixon, Nick Chubb, Dalvin Cook, CEH, Sanders
WR: Devante Adams, Mike Evans, , Tyreek Hill, Mclaurin, Denzel Mims
TE: Travis Kelce,Dallas Goedert

Dynasty Team 2:

16 Team, SuperFlex, PPR, .25 PPC

QB: Rodgers, Big Ben, Winston, Trubisky,
RB: Cook, Mixon,Ingram, Murray, Coleman, Hyde, Miller, Duke Johnson
WR: Golladay,A.J. Green, Landry, Shepard, Sanders, Tate, Westbrook, Fitzgerald
TE: Engram, Rudolph, Doyle

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Re: More 2020 Hype: "If You Need A RB or WR, this is the draft for you."

Postby OhCruelestRanter » Fri Jan 17, 2020 6:31 pm

As somebody with two superflex 1.12s, this is a bummer.

As for those comparing it to 2019, Swift, Dobbins, Taylor, Jeudy, and Lamb would have all been an easy 1.01 last year. David Montgomery would probably be outside the first round in this class.

The difference is that this class once seemed comparable to the crazy 2017 class, and now that seems a lot less likely.
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Re: More 2020 Hype: "If You Need A RB or WR, this is the draft for you."

Postby FantasyFreak » Fri Jan 17, 2020 6:59 pm

Kmani6 wrote:
Fri Jan 17, 2020 5:47 pm
FantasyFreak wrote:
Fri Jan 17, 2020 5:19 pm
Kmani6 wrote:
Fri Jan 17, 2020 5:04 pm


Agreed, and hopefully obviously implied. Don’t think I’ve ever seen anyone ever put a 6th round rookie in their 1st round fantasy rookie draft...
No but I saw/heard of Darwin Thompson going around the early/mid 2nd of some leagues last year, with players who were 3rd round picks in the NFL draft still around. Guys like McLaurin etc.
Yeah I guess misinformed chiefs backfield hype. In reality his ADP was 24. Mclaurin was on average under-drafted (ADP 30). I took him because Brett Kollmann said he’d be a star.

Now tell me if you think that’s what I was implying by my original post. I’ll say it one more time for the haters. Amongst the first 3 rounds, and more specifically within each round up to and including the 3rd round, a lot of fantasy owners make their own decisions based on fantasy outlets rather than draft order. This explains the huge rookie ADP difference between Montgomery and someone like Arcega-Whiteside- it’s pretty self explanatory.
No it didn't. However in your original post you suggested NFL talent evaluation wasn't the best. In this particular example, it's kind of hard to compare a round 3 RB to a round 2 WR for real NFL purposes compared to Fantasy, but that is specifically to your point. Monty was almost guaranteed to outproduce JJAWS year 1 in Fantasy, but it doesn't mean the Eagles should have drafted Montgomery. A lot of people passed on Hollywood last year, who was the NFL's top WR by draft capital. If you did it for AJ Brown, that might turn out all right, but if you did it for Isabella, for example, it's not looking too good. A good example to me, of what you're implying is people taking Chubb over Penny, despite Penny being a first round pick. (However some people took Guice over Chubb, despite Chubb being a higher pick, so it can work both for and against people.)

I think within range of the first 3 rounds or so, I can agree. Michael Thomas was a 2nd round pick, Treadwell a first. There is enough draft capital sunk into the players within the first few rounds, that often we go with how we perceive it to work out, rather than just taking the guy who was drafted higher.

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Re: More 2020 Hype: "If You Need A RB or WR, this is the draft for you."

Postby Kmani6 » Fri Jan 17, 2020 7:23 pm

FantasyFreak wrote:
Fri Jan 17, 2020 6:59 pm
Kmani6 wrote:
Fri Jan 17, 2020 5:47 pm
FantasyFreak wrote:
Fri Jan 17, 2020 5:19 pm


No but I saw/heard of Darwin Thompson going around the early/mid 2nd of some leagues last year, with players who were 3rd round picks in the NFL draft still around. Guys like McLaurin etc.
Yeah I guess misinformed chiefs backfield hype. In reality his ADP was 24. Mclaurin was on average under-drafted (ADP 30). I took him because Brett Kollmann said he’d be a star.

Now tell me if you think that’s what I was implying by my original post. I’ll say it one more time for the haters. Amongst the first 3 rounds, and more specifically within each round up to and including the 3rd round, a lot of fantasy owners make their own decisions based on fantasy outlets rather than draft order. This explains the huge rookie ADP difference between Montgomery and someone like Arcega-Whiteside- it’s pretty self explanatory.
No it didn't. However in your original post you suggested NFL talent evaluation wasn't the best. In this particular example, it's kind of hard to compare a round 3 RB to a round 2 WR for real NFL purposes compared to Fantasy, but that is specifically to your point. Monty was almost guaranteed to outproduce JJAWS year 1 in Fantasy, but it doesn't mean the Eagles should have drafted Montgomery. A lot of people passed on Hollywood last year, who was the NFL's top WR by draft capital. If you did it for AJ Brown, that might turn out all right, but if you did it for Isabella, for example, it's not looking too good. A good example to me, of what you're implying is people taking Chubb over Penny, despite Penny being a first round pick. (However some people took Guice over Chubb, despite Chubb being a higher pick, so it can work both for and against people.)

I think within range of the first 3 rounds or so, I can agree. Michael Thomas was a 2nd round pick, Treadwell a first. There is enough draft capital sunk into the players within the first few rounds, that often we go with how we perceive it to work out, rather than just taking the guy who was drafted higher.
Sure, so we agree. Yeah I mean the eagles didn’t select Montgomery not because they selected JJ, but because they had Howard. He is quite similar to Montgomery himself, ironically despite whatever the bears tried to pull off. But yeah it’s not only not just about the guy who was drafted higher, but often times there’s huge disparities between let’s say where Isabella was drafted in fantasy drafts compared to a lot of the other talent in that ADP range. Essentially, these players might perform well in the NFL, and can still contribute really well to NFL teams, but we are looking for the guys with the most upside that can break into top 12 or 24 guys at their position statistically.


Regardless, back to the 2020 class, I’ll stick by my original point that I think we lost 5 guys who would’ve been drafted late first/early 2nd. Even if you disagree, and say maybe late 2nd that’s cool, but half a round of talent disappeared and that’s going to affect rookie drafts substantially- especially Etienne.
Dynasty Team 1:

10 Man, Full PPR, .2 PPC, Double Flex

QB: Dak Prescott
RB: Joe Mixon, Nick Chubb, Dalvin Cook, CEH, Sanders
WR: Devante Adams, Mike Evans, , Tyreek Hill, Mclaurin, Denzel Mims
TE: Travis Kelce,Dallas Goedert

Dynasty Team 2:

16 Team, SuperFlex, PPR, .25 PPC

QB: Rodgers, Big Ben, Winston, Trubisky,
RB: Cook, Mixon,Ingram, Murray, Coleman, Hyde, Miller, Duke Johnson
WR: Golladay,A.J. Green, Landry, Shepard, Sanders, Tate, Westbrook, Fitzgerald
TE: Engram, Rudolph, Doyle

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Re: More 2020 Hype: "If You Need A RB or WR, this is the draft for you."

Postby esloan35 » Fri Jan 17, 2020 7:24 pm

Orenthal Shames wrote:
Fri Jan 17, 2020 3:23 pm
Wouldn't shock me if the "weak" 2019 class ends up being better than this one.
Come on now...

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Re: More 2020 Hype: "If You Need A RB or WR, this is the draft for you."

Postby esloan35 » Fri Jan 17, 2020 7:26 pm

OhCruelestRanter wrote:
Fri Jan 17, 2020 6:31 pm
As somebody with two superflex 1.12s, this is a bummer.

As for those comparing it to 2019, Swift, Dobbins, Taylor, Jeudy, and Lamb would have all been an easy 1.01 last year. David Montgomery would probably be outside the first round in this class.

The difference is that this class once seemed comparable to the crazy 2017 class, and now that seems a lot less likely.
Yes I agree.. its one dude that fell out who was looking at top 5 to 6 for FB.

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Re: More 2020 Hype: "If You Need A RB or WR, this is the draft for you."

Postby FantasyFreak » Fri Jan 17, 2020 7:47 pm

Kmani6 wrote:
Fri Jan 17, 2020 7:23 pm
FantasyFreak wrote:
Fri Jan 17, 2020 6:59 pm
Kmani6 wrote:
Fri Jan 17, 2020 5:47 pm


Yeah I guess misinformed chiefs backfield hype. In reality his ADP was 24. Mclaurin was on average under-drafted (ADP 30). I took him because Brett Kollmann said he’d be a star.

Now tell me if you think that’s what I was implying by my original post. I’ll say it one more time for the haters. Amongst the first 3 rounds, and more specifically within each round up to and including the 3rd round, a lot of fantasy owners make their own decisions based on fantasy outlets rather than draft order. This explains the huge rookie ADP difference between Montgomery and someone like Arcega-Whiteside- it’s pretty self explanatory.
No it didn't. However in your original post you suggested NFL talent evaluation wasn't the best. In this particular example, it's kind of hard to compare a round 3 RB to a round 2 WR for real NFL purposes compared to Fantasy, but that is specifically to your point. Monty was almost guaranteed to outproduce JJAWS year 1 in Fantasy, but it doesn't mean the Eagles should have drafted Montgomery. A lot of people passed on Hollywood last year, who was the NFL's top WR by draft capital. If you did it for AJ Brown, that might turn out all right, but if you did it for Isabella, for example, it's not looking too good. A good example to me, of what you're implying is people taking Chubb over Penny, despite Penny being a first round pick. (However some people took Guice over Chubb, despite Chubb being a higher pick, so it can work both for and against people.)

I think within range of the first 3 rounds or so, I can agree. Michael Thomas was a 2nd round pick, Treadwell a first. There is enough draft capital sunk into the players within the first few rounds, that often we go with how we perceive it to work out, rather than just taking the guy who was drafted higher.
Sure, so we agree. Yeah I mean the eagles didn’t select Montgomery not because they selected JJ, but because they had Howard. He is quite similar to Montgomery himself, ironically despite whatever the bears tried to pull off. But yeah it’s not only not just about the guy who was drafted higher, but often times there’s huge disparities between let’s say where Isabella was drafted in fantasy drafts compared to a lot of the other talent in that ADP range. Essentially, these players might perform well in the NFL, and can still contribute really well to NFL teams, but we are looking for the guys with the most upside that can break into top 12 or 24 guys at their position statistically.


Regardless, back to the 2020 class, I’ll stick by my original point that I think we lost 5 guys who would’ve been drafted late first/early 2nd. Even if you disagree, and say maybe late 2nd that’s cool, but half a round of talent disappeared and that’s going to affect rookie drafts substantially- especially Etienne.
Yes, and yes.

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Re: More 2020 Hype: "If You Need A RB or WR, this is the draft for you."

Postby jdacunha » Fri Jan 17, 2020 7:54 pm

So what’s the 2021 class looking like?
21 Players Dynasty-10 teams, (Non-PPR, 4 pts per passing TD)
QB: Jared Goff, Gardner Minshew, Jalen Hurts
RB: Kenyan Drake, Devin Singletary, Cam Akers Jordan Howard, Tarik Cohen, Joshua Kelly, Justin Jackson, Jerrick McKinnon, Adrian Peterson
WR: Christian Kirk, Dionte Johnson, Aaron Lazard, Paris Campbell, Tyrell Williams,Chris, J Crowder, Steve Sims, Devin Duvernay
TE: Jonnu Smith, Ian Thomas, Blake Jarwin

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Re: More 2020 Hype: "If You Need A RB or WR, this is the draft for you."

Postby bjd5211 » Fri Jan 17, 2020 8:13 pm

jdacunha wrote:
Fri Jan 17, 2020 7:54 pm
So what’s the 2021 class looking like?
Really good at QB at the top
Decent at RB now with the guys that stayed in school
Exceptional at WR, possibly even better than this year
TE might be pretty good, but can't really tell this far out.

Notables

QB: Trevor Lawrence (1.01 in SF/2QB), Justin Fields

RB: Etienne, Chuba Hubbard, underclassmen are a bit suspect for now

WR: Jam'arr Chase (probably 1.01 in 1QB), Rashod Bateman, Amon-Ra St Brown, Justyn Ross, Rondale Moore are all legit potential 1st rounders in NFL Draft

TE: Brevin Jordan

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Re: More 2020 Hype: "If You Need A RB or WR, this is the draft for you."

Postby Orenthal Shames » Fri Jan 17, 2020 8:44 pm

esloan35 wrote:
Fri Jan 17, 2020 7:24 pm
Orenthal Shames wrote:
Fri Jan 17, 2020 3:23 pm
Wouldn't shock me if the "weak" 2019 class ends up being better than this one.
Come on now...
It's not out of the question. 2019 had:

-Top 10 QB in Murray
-A RB1 in Jacobs prior to injury
-Top 15 RB in Sanders
-Multiple WRs inside the top 36 as rookies in AJB, Terry, DK & Deebo
-Plenty of others flashed throughout the season like Hollywood, Singletary, Montgomery, Preston Williams, etc.
16 team league
1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 Flex (RB/WR/TE)
26 man rosters - full point ppr
2015, 17, 18, 19 Champion

QB: Tannehill, Brees
RB: Kamara, CMC, Sanders, Davis, Murray, Scott
WR: Julio, Hill, KA, Hamler
TE: Kelce, Kittle

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Re: More 2020 Hype: "If You Need A RB or WR, this is the draft for you."

Postby FantasyFreak » Fri Jan 17, 2020 9:11 pm

Orenthal Shames wrote:
Fri Jan 17, 2020 8:44 pm
esloan35 wrote:
Fri Jan 17, 2020 7:24 pm
Orenthal Shames wrote:
Fri Jan 17, 2020 3:23 pm
Wouldn't shock me if the "weak" 2019 class ends up being better than this one.
Come on now...
It's not out of the question. 2019 had:

-Top 10 QB in Murray
-A RB1 in Jacobs prior to injury
-Top 15 RB in Sanders
-Multiple WRs inside the top 36 as rookies in AJB, Terry, DK & Deebo
-Plenty of others flashed throughout the season like Hollywood, Singletary, Montgomery, Preston Williams, etc.
All these guys look like they are players who have skill sets that will continue to work, and the added experience should only help. It's certainly not out of the question. Jacobs could easily have a better career than anyone in this class, with the volume and offensive fit he will have going for him. I don't think CD Lamb is a better prospect than AJB. Maybe Jeudy, but man. Brown did his thing is the SEC, and then stepped in year 1 and balled out. I am not saying it's going to happen, but it's not out of the question, no doubt.

BTW. Daniel Jones (for SF guys) did not play a full year, and in his rookie year had 3 games of 4 or MORE TD's passes. Yeah, he threw 5 in a game, too. As a rookie. For a guy who many thought had a low ceiling, and was a complete joke. he had some games he was slinging it, for a team who lost OBJ, and Golden Tate was their most acccomplished WR.

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Re: More 2020 Hype: "If You Need A RB or WR, this is the draft for you."

Postby esloan35 » Fri Jan 17, 2020 10:36 pm

Orenthal Shames wrote:
Fri Jan 17, 2020 8:44 pm
esloan35 wrote:
Fri Jan 17, 2020 7:24 pm
Orenthal Shames wrote:
Fri Jan 17, 2020 3:23 pm
Wouldn't shock me if the "weak" 2019 class ends up being better than this one.
Come on now...
It's not out of the question. 2019 had:

-Top 10 QB in Murray
-A RB1 in Jacobs prior to injury
-Top 15 RB in Sanders
-Multiple WRs inside the top 36 as rookies in AJB, Terry, DK & Deebo
-Plenty of others flashed throughout the season like Hollywood, Singletary, Montgomery, Preston Williams, etc.
Will be interesting to see but I think all the top picks last year would be behind this years top 3 RBS, Lamb, Jeudy, Ruggs, Higgins, would of pushed all of last years picks down IMO. Akers, Reagor, CEH, JJ are in that wheelhouse. The TEs class is weak I think. Was really hoping for Entienne and Hubbard. Hubbard I could see staying but Entienne was a gut punch for sure.

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Re: More 2020 Hype: "If You Need A RB or WR, this is the draft for you."

Postby FantasyFreak » Fri Jan 17, 2020 11:34 pm

esloan35 wrote:
Fri Jan 17, 2020 10:36 pm
Orenthal Shames wrote:
Fri Jan 17, 2020 8:44 pm
esloan35 wrote:
Fri Jan 17, 2020 7:24 pm


Come on now...
It's not out of the question. 2019 had:

-Top 10 QB in Murray
-A RB1 in Jacobs prior to injury
-Top 15 RB in Sanders
-Multiple WRs inside the top 36 as rookies in AJB, Terry, DK & Deebo
-Plenty of others flashed throughout the season like Hollywood, Singletary, Montgomery, Preston Williams, etc.
Will be interesting to see but I think all the top picks last year would be behind this years top 3 RBS, Lamb, Jeudy, Ruggs, Higgins, would of pushed all of last years picks down IMO. Akers, Reagor, CEH, JJ are in that wheelhouse. The TEs class is weak I think. Was really hoping for Entienne and Hubbard. Hubbard I could see staying but Entienne was a gut punch for sure.
Obviously an impossible call, to use hindsight, but: Jacobs won OROY, and any of the rookies would be lucky to rush for what he did this year. Jacobs was is a different situation at Bama. Daniel Jeremiah was on him real early, saying this guy is legit. Deebo and DK had injury histories, but both remained healthy. The WR class last year was spoken about as the best since 2014, so it's not that big a surprise. The fact Jacobs and Sanders hit really isn't either. Based on what I saw from Jacobs vs Lamb on my amateur tape watching skills, and regardless of where Lamb goes, I wouldn't bat an eye at anybody taking Jacobs over Lamb, based on what I saw, assuming both are first rounde picks. I don't think what Lamb did in that conference is all that special, and I would take him at a certain point, but the second Jacobs went in the first to the Raiders, it verified everything from what I saw, and I knew he would be used as a true lead back. His "tape" although not a very long catalogue, showed traits that translated to the NFL at the position so easily.

We'll never know, I don't think the entire NFL would view Jacobs skill set behind Ruggs or Higgins, for instance. Jacobs was ranked very highly in the scouting community, main stream and otherwise, despite the lack of production. The fact he won OROY and produced at such a high level is a credit to them. There were teams hoping he posted a slow 40 to push him down some boards, and Gil Brandt said his pro day was "exceptional", despite the lack of metrics to say Jacobs was good (BTW, Brandt also predicted no WR in the top 20 for the 2019 draft in October 2018). I find it hard to believe certain teams would have taken a guy like Ruggs, for instance, over Jacobs, or that Ruggs will be worth what Jacobs is in the Dynasty community after his rookie year.

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Re: More 2020 Hype: "If You Need A RB or WR, this is the draft for you."

Postby Jigga94 » Sat Jan 18, 2020 4:42 am

Orenthal Shames wrote:
Fri Jan 17, 2020 8:44 pm
esloan35 wrote:
Fri Jan 17, 2020 7:24 pm
Orenthal Shames wrote:
Fri Jan 17, 2020 3:23 pm
Wouldn't shock me if the "weak" 2019 class ends up being better than this one.
Come on now...
It's not out of the question. 2019 had:

-Top 10 QB in Murray
-A RB1 in Jacobs prior to injury
-Top 15 RB in Sanders
-Multiple WRs inside the top 36 as rookies in AJB, Terry, DK & Deebo
-Plenty of others flashed throughout the season like Hollywood, Singletary, Montgomery, Preston Williams, etc.
Not out of the question at all. Blows my mind that people can see the future for all these kids before they've even been drafted... I mean, the 2020 class was crowned before the 2019 class had even stepped on the field. Pretty much everyone overlooked the last class back then but I don't know how you're still overlooking it now with the names mentioned above.

As far as 2020, yeah the prospects look pretty good, but it is trending downwards with some of the guys returning to school. As of right now to me it looks like the top 3 will be RB (similar to 2019 with Jacobs, Sanders, Montgomery) and then some WR prospects at the top that all have question marks. Ultimately some of those turned out pretty well for 2019 and I have a hard time seeing 2020s WR class being stronger. Jeudy is the better prospect in either class, but I'd take AJB in a second over him right now. Not fair given that Jeudy hasn't even been drafted yet, but that's my point.
2QB, 2RB, 3WR, TE, FLEX - PPR - [b]14 Keepers[/b]
QB: Mahomes, J. Allen, D. Jones, Baker
RB: JT, Mostert, Dillon, Gaskin, McFarland, Jeff Wilson, Mattison, Pollard, Damien (IR)
WR: Tyreek, DJM, Jeudy, Hollywood, Cooks, Preston, Cole, G. Davis, Parris (IR), Mims (IR)
TE: Andrews, Henry, Fant
2021: 1, 2, 3

2QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, 3FLEX - PPR - [b]20 Keepers[/b]
QB: Mahomes, Ryan, Minshew, Hurts
RB: CMC (IR), Saquon (IR), Jacobs, Dobbins, Hunt, M. Davis, McFarland, Penny, Cohen
WR: DJM, Chark, Ruggs, Hardman, Mike Will, Lazard (IR), C. Davis, G. Davis, Washington, Parris (IR)
TE: Andrews, Henry, Gesicki, Irv, Tonyan
2021: 2, 3, 3
2022: 1, 2, 3, 3


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