HFFL Preseason Poll

[henry1jg]

I am posting my preseason poll here for my league mates to read. If you would like to read it, feel free!

Jim’s Eighth Annual Preseason Poll
As always, let’s start the poll off with a review of how I faired with my predictions from last season.
2013 Prediction: ----- 2013 Final Standings:
14. Johnson ------------------ 14. Walt
13. Evan --------------------------- 13. Johnson
12. Normandin ------------------ 12. Wedge
11. Wedge ---------------------------- 11. Greg
10. Walt ------------------------------------ 10. Rich
9. RG ------------------------- 9. Normandin
8. Randy -------------------------- 8. RG
7. Mike ------------------ ----------- 7. Mike
Playoff Prediction: --------- Playoff Teams:
6. Cook ------------- 6. Evan
5. Rich --------- 5. Cook
4. Jeff --------- 4. Matt
3. Greg -------- 3. Jim
2. Jim -------- 2. Jeff
Champ: Matt Champ: Randy

The is the first time in the last four seasons of my prognostication that I picked less than five of the six playoff teams correctly, I did however pick four of the six correctly. I STILL have not correctly predicted the HFFL Champion, therefore the curse continues. Randy has proven that building your team through the draft and ripping Jim off in trades is a very successful formula. Randy was not only the champion, but he was the regular season champ and the only team with double digit victories last season.

For the second off-season in a row we did not have to replace any owners, and it has really begun to show in the standings. Last season was only the second season in HFFL history, and the first since the inaugural season in 2006, that only one team had double digit victories. After re-reading the annual polls from previous seasons, one things sticks out to me is that the competition of this league has improved dramatically each of the last five years. There are no more absolutely dominant teams and every team has at least two major deficiencies. In fact, when I was creating this poll, I gave out initial win/loss overall records for here I thought each team would be. I had TEN teams rated as above .500 teams. 10. Now obviously that isn’t possible unless the other 4 teams go dang near defeated fr the year, but that just shows how strong I feel the league is right now. That leaves the door open for seemingly any owner. The 2014 Championship is truly up for grabs, which team steps up and takes the reins remains to be seen.

This year I tried to create a new rankings strategy. Over the years, there have been many different variations of teams that have won the HFFL Ship, but the one thing that has always pushed teams to the top has been an elite QB. Over the past eight seasons, only one team has won the Ship with a QB that did not finish in the top 5 at his position that season, and that was Greg with Tony Romo in 2012. So, there was some weight given to QB’s. However, when a lot of teams are bunched together, such as the six teams that I have vying for the last two playoff spots, I had to come up with a new measure to stack these teams against. The non-QB premium positions are RB, WR, and LB. I have decided that I am going to focus on these three positions when trying to decide which teams will rank higher than their competitors.

As a friendly reminder, this poll is created for fun, and for your entertainment. If you don’t like the way I see your team, don’t be a pansy and cry about it, just prove me wrong. Or do cry about, I don’t care. Sissy…

Without further adieu:

14. Walt - Career Regular Season Record – 13-25-1; Career Playoff Record – 1-2
- Franchise Record – 49-56-2; Franchise Playoff Record – 6-7, 2x 2nd place
Walt’s team has gone from bad to worse. He entered a rebuild after the 2011 season and is seemingly still directly in rebuild mode. The issue is that Walt actually had some promising young talent at the start of the 2013 season in Nuk Hopkins, J Hunter, Lattimore, Eifert. However, Walt decided to ship out all of those players but Lattimore, who appears to have been replaced by Hyde anyway. All is not lost though for Walt, he has added some more young talent in Tavon Austin, Davante Adams and Odell Beckham Jr. Add that with the volatile Steven Ridley and the underrated Golden Tate and Walt could actually win more than one game this season. Walt will go as RG3 goes and the early returns are not promising. But, I believe in RG3 and I believe that Walt could scrape himself off the ground and scrounge up 3-4 wins this year if things fall his way.

Here I the first clear divide, Walt is far and away the worst team in the HFFL right now.

13. Wedge – Career Regular Season Record – 32-46; Career Playoff Record – 1-2
- Franchise Record – 37-59-1; Franchise Playoff Record – 1-2
If Wedge is one thing, he’s remarkably consistent. The problem with that is that he’s been consistently below average. Wedge has played six full season of HFFL football. He has won 5 games four separate times. The other two seasons he finished with 8 wins and 4 wins. So, I believe Wedge will continue to be consistent, I predict 5 wins yet again for Wedge. However, there is a difference between this Wedge team and the squads of years past; this team has a bright future. Wedge added 3 top 5 rookies this off-season in Evans, Sankey, and Hyde, added a solid QB prospect in Teddy Bridgewater, and a dark horse rookie runner in Andre Williams. If this was the NFL of 30 years ago, I am confident that Andre Williams would have been a sure fire stud. If the Giants are willing to let Williams smash the ball 15-20 times a game, Williams would be the type of RB that would wear a defense out. Russell Wilson and Julius Thomas are the clear building blocks for this franchise. Torrey Smith in Kubiak’s offense is a very intriguing option and Reuben Randle is not receiving any love right now, but is a very high upside WR3. Wedge has a solid, workmanlike defense, and this team could be very difficult to deal with in 2-3 years. I am very happy to see Wedge looking strong, no team in the league talks smack quite like the Sleeveless Nation.

12. Johnson – Career Regular Season Record – 18-32-2; Career Playoff Record – n/a
- Franchise Record – 22-41-2; Playoff Record – n/a
Scott is no longer the bottom feeder in the HFFL! Congrats man! Philip Rivers has revived his career, Arian Foster appears to be back and healthy, Ben Tate and Rashad Jennings enter the 2014 season as clear cut lead RBs on their teams. That is a nice breath of fresh air! Scott has some question marks at WR for the 2014 season, but the future of the position is extremely bright. I am still a very big fan of Markus Wheaton, and the additions of Jordan Matthews, Cody Latimer, and Marqise Lee have the look of a very bright future for Scott. The lack of starting WRs this year and a below average defense are going to hurt Scott this year, but his future is looking better than it has for a long time. If Scott finds himself out of the race and sells his aging RB assets to a team desperate to get themselves over the top, we could be looking at Scott as a potential contender as early as the 2016 season.

11. Ryan – Career Regular Season Record 71-35-1; Career Playoff Record – 9-5
- 2006 and 2008 HFFL Champions
Although Ryan was able to finish a respectable 8-5 last season, that may have been the final hoorah of a team in desperate need of an overhaul. Tom Brady is no longer an elite option and Steven Jackson and Antonio Gates are both running on fumes. The fall of Justin Blackmon has really taken a toll on this franchise. Ryan has a roster full of uninspiring options at WR, all with very little upside outside of Aaron Dobson and Kendall Wright. Matt Forte, DeSean Jackson, and an annually strong Jedi defense will have to do some very heavy lifting this season if Ryan is too make one last playoff push. The most likely scenario is an underwhelming 6 win season and the beginning of a likely 3 year rebuild. As one of only three original HFFL members remaining, the league needs Ryan to pull a rabbit out of his hat and make one last push.

From here on out, every single one of these teams was rated as an above .500 team by me in my original analysis of every team. League parity is at an all time high and these teams are all remarkably similar, especially the next six. Injuries, in-season waiver adds, and trades are going to be the deciding factor that determines which of these teams goes from tough out to legitimate contender.

10. Cook – Career Regular Season Record – 22-16-1; Career Playoff Record –4-2
- Franchise Record – 43-63-1; Franchise Playoff Record – 4-2
Cook has been one of the most consistent owners in the league since the day he stepped onto the gridiron. Cook has taken a franchise that was an annual doormat and turned them into a playoff team in two of his three seasons. The addition of Nick Foles last season was probably the best acquisition of the 2013 season. Foles has finally removed Cook from the Joe “mediocre” Flacco era and provided the opportunity for elite numbers at a crucial position. Jordy Nelson and Andre Johnson are still one of the best one-two punches at WR in this league. Vernon Davis continues to be a solid TE option and Ertz provides serious TE1 upside. Along with a perennially strong defense, that includes three very good starting LB options, and you see why Cook has been so solid the last two years. The down side? Reggie Bush and Chris Johnson are not the options they once were, Wes Welker has three concussions in the past year and just got busted for “Molly,” although he of course has noooo ideaaaaa how that happened. He actually said that someone must have slipped something in his drink at the Kentuck Derby. Lol. C’mon man, we ain’t thaaaaat dumb. The lack of a strong option a RB and the loss of Welker for at least the first 5 weeks of the 2014 season will prove to be too much for Cook to overcome.

9. Mike – Career Regular Season Record – 23-29; Career Playoff Record – 1-2
- Franchise Record – 54-51-2; Franchise Playoff Record – 4-4, ’09 HFFL Champs
Mike is always a team that I have difficulty evaluating. I like Mike, I want his team to be good, but we just don’t see eye to eye on player value. When I created my player value system that I used to rank these six teams, Mike’s team graded out as the worst of the six. Why might you ask? Well, first of all, I do not believe in Le’Veon Bell. Not even a little bit. Blount is a superior NFL runner and will erode away at Bell’s role all season long. By the end of the year, I believe Le’Veon will be little more than an inefficient, 14-17 touch per game player that does not get the RZ carries. Shane Vereen is a great option in PPR leagues, but we don’t allow that garbage here. MJD is about done and that’s about it as far as 2014 RB production goes for Mike. The average starting age of Mike’s WR and TE is like 32 years old. Reggie Wayne is fresh off a torn ACL, Larry Fitz is fresh off his third straight season of less than 1,000 rec yards, and VJax has a new QB and new offensive system. If there is a bright side, it’s Mike’s defense. His LB corps rivals any in this league, he is deep at DL, and very strong at DB. Mike’s defense will keep him in games, but his lack of firepower on offense makes Mike a poor bet to post more than 135 pts per game this season. This is not the type of team that can blow up on you any given week either, it’s just your average run-of-the-mill team. Unless Mike makes some power moves to add offensive firepower, he is likely fishing in the 2015 lottery.

8. Rich – Career Regular Season Record – 18-20-1; Career Playoff Record – 0-3
- Franchise Record – 55-51-1; Franchise Playoff Record – 1-6
Rich limped through the 2013 season, finishing 5-7-1 and scoring a meager 130 ppg, good for 9th best in the league. So why is he ranked as the 2nd team out o the playoffs? Simple, quality QB play, solid RB depth, and a very steady defense. The thing that is going to make or break Rich in 2014 will be his WRs. Long on potential, but short on actual on field production is a key theme for these bunch. Maclin and Percy played in a combined two games last season and Shorts missed multiple others due to injury. The utter lack of reliability at the WR position is the reason that it’s hard to envision Rich making a run. That said, Rich is one of the wheelers and dealers of this league and I would not be surprised at all to see him land a WR in the coming weeks. Rich with a healthy and productive Percy Harvin, solid WR2 numbers out of one of Maclin or Shorts, and a steadying option as his WR3 is a tough weekly out. Rudolph could very well be in for a Jordan Cameron esque breakout under Norv Turner and Christine Michael has gobs of potential. Rich is a team that isn’t going anywhere and will continue to be in the conversation for the next few years, but I do not view him as much more of a contender than any o the two teams listed above him in this poll.

The first team out is…..

7. Greg– Career Regular Season Record – 22-17; Career Playoff Record – 4-2, ’12 HFFL Champ
- Franchise Record – 59-48; Playoff Record – 5-4, 2012 HFFL Champs
Injury, after injury, after injury. I just summed up the 2013 season for Greg. Couple injury with underwhelming performance, and you have the recipe for what was a disastrous season. Greg came into 2013 high off a first career Ship win and suffered the dreaded Super Bowl hangover. However, with the new season comes renewed hope for Greg. Tony Romo is poised for a huge statistical season under Scott Linehan’s unbelievably pass heavy offensive scheme. Between Spiller, FJax, and Joique Bell, Greg should be able to get a solid 10 ppg from each RB spot. Julio Jones is going to be a monster, Eric Decker is going to be option 1, 2, and 3 in NY, and Sammy Watkins will provide solid, top 30 numbers as a rook. Greg’s defense? Damnnnnn. His defense strikes fear into the heart of his opponents. Greg is that team that may score 93 points one week, then turns around and scores 200+ the week after. Greg is a wildcard and the last tie I stated that Greg was a wildcard, he won the Ship as the 6th seed. Watch out for Greg, he is not the team to play a winner take all format.

-------------------- Playoff Teams ------------------

6. Evan – Career Regular Season Record – 15-11; Career Playoff Record – 0-3
- Franchise Record – 23-32; Playoff Record – 0-3
Evan took over a team that was originally an expansion team. Not only a team that was an expansion team, but a team that had Cockerham and Big Al as its owners for its first three years. They make a late life Al Davis look like Vince Lombardi. What has Evan done since taking over the steaming pile of dog poo? Only posted back to back winning seasons, the first two winning seasons of this franchise’s history. Now, Evan is poised to enter 2014 as a legitimate playoff team and championship contender. Matt Stafford and Jamaal Charles spearhead a unit that is solid from top to bottom. Evan is not the type of team that is going to wow you with amazing point totals and spectacular WRs, but he will be consistent and will push for a very solid 145 pts per game. If Zac Stacy continues to put up great numbers, or Knowshon Moreno can take over the job in Miami, then Evan will be even stronger. Victor Cruz will bounce back and will be a WR1 option in McAdoo’s system. Colston, Hartline, and Bowe make up the leagues most boring WR corps, but its hard to argue with their consistency. Evan knows that he will get low end WR2/high end WR3 numbers from these guys week in and week out. Greg Olsen is a very underrated option this season for a Panthers team devoid of reliable options. One thing that nearly kept Evan out of the playoffs in my book was his extremely poor defense. If Evan does indeed make the playoffs again, it most definitely will not be on the strength of his defense. I mean shoot, he is wasting two roster spots on Dockett (IR) and Burnett (free agent). If Evan can get away from the 3-4 OLB type players that fill his defense currently, he would be higher on this list.

5. Normandin – Career Regular Season Record – 7-19; Career Playoff Record – n/a
- Franchise Record – 56-51; Playoff Record – 2-5
Normandin went 2-11 last season and he is predicted to make the playoffs? What in the hewl???
“The future is VERY bright for this franchise, quite possibly brighter than any non-playoff ranked team in the league. Assuming Scott stays the course, he will be an HFFL powerhouse, potentially as soon as the 2014 season.”
This is an excerpt from last season’s preseason poll and I m ready to make good on that claim. Normandin starts Adrian Peterson and Eddie Lacy. Every. Single. Week. You don’t have a better duo than that. I know you don’t, I looked. Toby Gerhart will be a solid option off the bench as he will likely be force fed carries as the Jaguars prepare for the Blake Bortles era. DMC is an annual tease that has always let me down, bastahd. Normandin has a solid QB in Kaep and a very solid quartet of WRs with Roddy, Wallace, Cooper, and Emanuel Sanders. Delanie Walker is a decent weekly option who should see a good amount of targets this season. Scott still hasn’t done anything about this rough shot defense and that will ultimately be his undoing

This was where the final tier of teams stuck out to me. Each of these teams has a very good case for why they should be crowned the 2014 HFFL Champion. Every team here has been to at least one Championship, and three of the four have won a Ship.

4. Jim – Franchise Record – 78-28-1; Playoff Record – 8-8, 4x 2nd place
The leagues lovable loser is back at it again, only this time with significantly less firepower than in years past. Jim had less than double digit wins last season, marking the first time since 2009 and only the 3rd time in franchise history. Jim has traded away Arian Foster, LeSean McCoy, and Marshawn Lynch over the last two off seasons. What does he have to show for trading these RB stalwarts? A starting RB duo or Doug Martin and Trent Richardson… Jim has once again taken the bait and fallen in love with youth. The only difference between the latest youth revolution and his past trials is that Jim does not have two stud RBs to fall back on. But for all the changes, many things remain strong. Drew Brees is still out of this world, Jim has the best WR corps he has ever had, Gronk is ready to roll, and Jim is bringing a solid defense to the table week in and week out. The injury to Kiko Alonso will be tough to overcome, but a healthy Brian Cushing and the impending return of Danny Trevathan bodes well for Jim. Jim is not likely to be in the Ship this season as he simply does not have the RB play to push him to those lengths. He will go as Trent Richardson goes and the early returns are far from promising.

3. Randy – Career Regular Season Record – 27-25; Career Playoff Record – 2-0, ’14 Champ
- Franchise Record – 50-57; Playoff Record – 2-0, 2014 HFFL Champion
Randy has done everything the right way. He has built his team through strong drafting, solid FA acquisitions, and through winning trade after trade. Randy’s championship was no fluke, he was the regular season champion last season and scored a very good 146.3 pts per gae last season, good for fourth in the league. Randy is riding Peyton Manning’s unbelievable run and will look for more of the same in 2014. Marshhawn Lynch and Gio Bernard are one of the best one-two punches at RB in the league, although there is not much behind them. Randy has 4 WRs that have all shown top 10 upside at some point in his career and will be a very solid bunch for him all season long, not to mention Jordan Cameron will get all the action he can handle. Randy does have some questions along his defense, but he also has a couple players that could really rebound, whether it be they’re finally healthy (Geno Atkins, DJ Williams) or they are in a new scheme (Zach Brown), there is some optimism for better things to come. Randy once again is the premier; you don’t wanna play this guy in a winner take all format team in the HFFL. If Randy’s starting RBs can stay healthy, he is a very strong bet to repeat.

2. Matt – Career Reg Season Record – 48-17; Playoffs – 8-4; ’10 & ‘11 HFFL Champs, ’09 2nd place
- Franchise Record – 59-43; Playoff Record 8-4, ’10 & ’11 Champs, ’09 2nd place
Matt is lead by Aaron Rodgers and the league’s best WR trio. No team can hold a candle to the Megatron, AJG, Dez trio, and when you throw in Jimmy Graham on top of that? Yikes. There is also some solid youth behind those studs as Justin Hunter has many dynasty crowds drooling over what could be. Matt’s defensive unit is not the stacked wrecking crew it was a season ago, but it will still be a top 5 unit in the league. JJ Watt is a cornerstone, and a healthy and contract seeking JPP will likely rebound. The injury to NaVarro Bowman late last season will hurt Matt for at least the first 6 weeks of 2014. D’Qwell has a new home in Indy and one has to wonder if he’ll be afforded the same amount of tackle opportunities he’s used to. The downfall for Matt is easily his RB corps. The unit is nine men strong, but really only has one true starter in Alfred Morris. Ray Rice is not the player he once was, but spent the offseason improving his woman-beating technique. Matt has all 3 Saints RBs, so I’m sure he’s hoping someone emerges from the pack there. Matt has more question marks at RB than the police had for Ray Rice. I just don’t envision Matt being able to get over the hump and win the Ship without a solid RB2.

**************Your 2014 HFFL Champion****************

1 - Jeff – Career Record – 56-50-1; Playoff Record 5-5, ’07 Champ, ’13 2nd place
Jeff was able to breeze through most of the regular season last year finishing as the #2 seed and as the 2nd highest scoring team at a very good 150.3 pts per game. Jeff was able to beat Matt to advance and played in one of the most gut-wrenching championship games in HFFL history. Jeff thought he had the game won and began his celebration. Unfortunately for him, the stat correction monster struck. Jerrell Freeman was initially credited with 20 points, which gave Jeff a 161-160 victory. But, as luck would have it, Freeman was inaccurately credited with a pass deflection, the point was removed, and Jeff and Randy tied. Since Randy was the #1 seed heading into the playoffs, he held the tiebreak and was named the 2013 HFFL Champion. Talk about heart breaking! But, 2014 brings renewed optimism. Jeff has revamped the squad in hopes that there would be no Super Bowl hangover. The addition of LeSean McCoy goes down as the biggest move of the offseason. Brandon Marshall and Demaryius Thomas are one of the best duos in our league and Jeff most certainly has the top defense in the entire league. His LBs are stacked, his DL is stacked, and his DBs are very good. The downside, and what may ultimately cost Jeff a Ship, is Josh Gordon. The loss of one of the NFL’s best WRs is a lot to overcome. When you couple that with the unknown that is Jeff’s RB2, there is some cause for concern. Montee Ball and Andre Ellington have less than 250 career carries combined, but they are being counted on as workhorse RBs. I have stated before my feelings on Montee Ball and I stand by them. I believe he is extremely overrated, but if he can keep Peyton Manning upright, he will have a very large role in an offense that made Knowshon Moreno a fantasy stud last season. I believe that one of Ellington or Ball will fill the role as a solid weekly option as his RB2 and that Jeff will be able to land a fill in for Josh Gordon and that is the reason I’m choosing him as the 2014 HFFL Champion. Can Jeff break the curse of Jim’s Annual Preseason Poll? Only time will tell!

I would like to thank you all again for making this league so fun and competitive. I hope you enjoy this preseason poll as much as I enjoyed writing. Best of luck this season! I can’t wait to see how it all unfolds!