There will always be the exceptions, as you mentioned. But by age 27 there is a significant drop in % of RB1 seasons. Even more so, the trade value of these assets will drop significantly regardless of production.gogobradyarm wrote: ↑Tue Jan 12, 2021 5:53 pm TL:DR: Don't sell a RB because he is 25...Adrian Peterson, Frank Gore, Emmitt Smith, Tiki Barber, Curtis Martin, Thomas Jones, etc etc all played well into their 30's!!!! Nick Chubb is that caliber talent!
I recently traded Diggs for Chubb and 2.02. Very excited to have Chubb back as I had watched him and rooted for his come back, during the Georgia days.
While I understand the idea of selling RB in the mid 20's, I don't necessarily agree. If your team is a win now contender, I would not be doing that. If you're not a true contender though, sure, sell away.
I think certain recency bias is at play with RB's falling off, mostly being Gurley, Gordon, David Johnson. The thing with those guys, is the first two had serious knee injuries dating back to college. I believe they both also had micro-fracture surgery, which histrionically reduces NFL longevity (oddly enough Kelce also had this, but is going strong).
Gurley was rumored to have bone on bone, and that sadly ruined his career.
Gordon's to me was never a truly special RB, but an above average do it all back that finally benefited once the Charger's had a serviceable offensive line, and with a good scheme for him. He went to a considerably worse offense in Denver and has suffered.
David Johnson's career was derailed by injuries, the retirement of Carson Palmer, and while he was a great all around player (excellent WR and open field runner), he was never a special between the tackles guy.
When I think of Dalvin Cook, Nick Chubb, and Zeke (all of them are 25), I see 3 guys that are all as good as prime Gurley was as a runner, or better. These guys are also quite good at catching the ball, and may even be developing still as all around players. Zeke is the only one of the 3 that has possibly shown any sign of slowing down, but I 100% believe that is tied to being in a crap offense and being de-motivated. The guy is a bit of a head case, and I think he is just depressed knowing the Cowboys are booty. I fully expect him to bounce back, in a major way in 2021.
My point though is, selling a RB at 25 isn't always bad or isn't always good. Guys like Zeke, Cook, Chubb, are not guys I feel are going to slow down any time soon, and these are guys that are consistently producing at elite levels (some injuries sprinkled in, but no bone on bone or microfracture surgery). It's easy to forget that guys like Adrian Peterson, Frank Gore, Emmitt Smith, Walter Payton, Tiki Barber, Curtis Martin, Thomas Jones, Barry Sanders, etc etc all played well into their 30's!!!!
Like you said, as a contender you are likely getting more production with these guys on your roster than you will with trade value beyond the mid 20s. For non contenders, get out while the gettin' is good.
