How many QBs go in the first round?

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olmansmith
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Re: How many QBs go in the first round?

Postby olmansmith » Thu Mar 18, 2021 9:15 am

Ice wrote: Thu Mar 18, 2021 8:57 am
StripesOfKC wrote: Wed Mar 17, 2021 4:36 pm
Ice wrote: Wed Mar 17, 2021 3:51 pm Jimmy G wins games. When he is not on the field the 49's lose games. They may draft and develop a QB but the reality is he is a very good QB when on the field. This team is really good so they should be reluctant to trade him this season.

No question health has been an issue but none of these injuries are career threatening.

Looks like the better time to move him is after this season IMO.
Jimmy G's team carries him to wins yes

With a good QB on the 49ers we are ringless last year
Reality Check

49's record with and without Jimmy G
24-9 with
7-26 without


Easy to say the team carried him right up until you see the same team's record without him.

Not saying they shouldn't upgrade at all but today he is by far the best they have so ejecting early would not be that smart. Given their players under contract and future cap position they will probably draft a QB round 1 this season and develop him.
49ers fan here - Jimmy carried the 49ers in his crazy good stretch in 2017, but ever since the ACL he's lost some confidence or something. He was *definitely* carried by the team for big chunks of 2019, but that doesn't make him anywhere near CJ Beathard. Nick Mullens, Brian Hoyer, etc. He's a solid mid-level game manager QB who IMO still has some upside.

The tldr; is that the niners KNOW they can make it to the super bowl with Jimmy and their team is built to win now, so why on earth would they trade Jimmy for some rookie picks that will definitely not turn into a win now QB for at least a year. The only real scenarios for the niners were probably:
1. trade for stafford (the rams gave way more than the niners would have) and cut/trade jimmy
2. trade for deshaun (always seemed unlikely, and now with all the court cases, doesn't seem like its even on the table for now) and cut/trade jimmy
3. draft a rookie QB if one falls or if they are able to trade up and have them sit behind Jimmy for at least a year. This seems the most likely.
4. sign some high end backup and ride Jimmy until Kirk becomes available (because Shanahan is obsessed with Kirk)

I don't think there was ever a chance they went with trade Jimmy and draft a rookie to start given current team.

Regarding the OP question - I'd bet 4 in the first 10 picks, 1 in the mid 1st for 5 total but don't think I'm saying anything new on that.

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Re: How many QBs go in the first round?

Postby OhCruelestRanter » Fri Mar 26, 2021 10:10 am

OhCruelestRanter wrote: Fri Mar 12, 2021 4:40 pm Apparently NE called on Jimmy G before signing Newton, and were told he wasn’t available.

Feels like if they were planning on drafting somebody they’d be more inclined to at least listen to offers.
Well this was hilariously and almost immediately wrong.
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Re: How many QBs go in the first round?

Postby bjd5211 » Fri Mar 26, 2021 10:11 am

bjd5211 wrote: Fri Mar 12, 2021 4:51 pm
OhCruelestRanter wrote: Fri Mar 12, 2021 4:40 pm Apparently NE called on Jimmy G before signing Newton, and were told he wasn’t available.

Feels like if they were planning on drafting somebody they’d be more inclined to at least listen to offers.
Or they fully intend on Jimmy being the QB this year because they don't want to start a rookie QB when they have legitimate SB aspirations, but do want their own Patrick Mahomes who they can sit and develop for a year and then take over in year 2. Fields and Lance are both pretty realistic trade up targets for them, and most believe they could use some extra development (Lance especially) before being thrown into the fire, and what team is better suited for that kind of scenario than SF?
Looks like this might be their plan after all.

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Re: How many QBs go in the first round?

Postby Bronco Billy » Fri Mar 26, 2021 10:59 am

olmansmith wrote: Thu Mar 18, 2021 9:15 am
49ers fan here - Jimmy carried the 49ers in his crazy good stretch in 2017, but ever since the ACL he's lost some confidence or something. He was *definitely* carried by the team for big chunks of 2019, but that doesn't make him anywhere near CJ Beathard. Nick Mullens, Brian Hoyer, etc. He's a solid mid-level game manager QB who IMO still has some upside.

The tldr; is that the niners KNOW they can make it to the super bowl with Jimmy and their team is built to win now, so why on earth would they trade Jimmy for some rookie picks that will definitely not turn into a win now QB for at least a year. The only real scenarios for the niners were probably:
1. trade for stafford (the rams gave way more than the niners would have) and cut/trade jimmy
2. trade for deshaun (always seemed unlikely, and now with all the court cases, doesn't seem like its even on the table for now) and cut/trade jimmy
3. draft a rookie QB if one falls or if they are able to trade up and have them sit behind Jimmy for at least a year. This seems the most likely.
4. sign some high end backup and ride Jimmy until Kirk becomes available (because Shanahan is obsessed with Kirk)

I don't think there was ever a chance they went with trade Jimmy and draft a rookie to start given current team.
:sadtrombone:

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Re: How many QBs go in the first round?

Postby OhCruelestRanter » Fri Mar 26, 2021 11:18 am

At this point keeping Jimmy G seems dumb to me.

Why are you holding onto him? Ostensibly it’s because they think they can win a Super Bowl this year. If that’s the case, why are you giving up 3 firsts to replace a guy that you think is good enough to win a Super Bowl?
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Re: How many QBs go in the first round?

Postby Sriracha » Fri Mar 26, 2021 11:20 am

OhCruelestRanter wrote: Fri Mar 26, 2021 11:18 am At this point keeping Jimmy G seems dumb to me.

Why are you holding onto him? Ostensibly it’s because they think they can win a Super Bowl this year. If that’s the case, why are you giving up 3 firsts to replace a guy that you think is good enough to win a Super Bowl?
Because their defense is in a very limited window and long term they're going to have to deal with Russell Wilson, Matthew Stafford, and Kyler Murray for the foreseeable future.

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Re: How many QBs go in the first round?

Postby bjd5211 » Fri Mar 26, 2021 11:32 am

Sriracha wrote: Fri Mar 26, 2021 11:20 am
OhCruelestRanter wrote: Fri Mar 26, 2021 11:18 am At this point keeping Jimmy G seems dumb to me.

Why are you holding onto him? Ostensibly it’s because they think they can win a Super Bowl this year. If that’s the case, why are you giving up 3 firsts to replace a guy that you think is good enough to win a Super Bowl?
Because their defense is in a very limited window and long term they're going to have to deal with Russell Wilson, Matthew Stafford, and Kyler Murray for the foreseeable future.
And Jimmy is affordable right now, but will cost more than he's worth paying to keep around soon. This resets the QB pay timetable and gets a more talented player at the position in future years. Bosa is going to eligible for extension after this season and is going to command big money, that's an easier check to write when your QB is on a rookie contract.

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Re: How many QBs go in the first round?

Postby olmansmith » Fri Mar 26, 2021 12:01 pm

Bronco Billy wrote: Fri Mar 26, 2021 10:59 am
olmansmith wrote: Thu Mar 18, 2021 9:15 am
49ers fan here - Jimmy carried the 49ers in his crazy good stretch in 2017, but ever since the ACL he's lost some confidence or something. He was *definitely* carried by the team for big chunks of 2019, but that doesn't make him anywhere near CJ Beathard. Nick Mullens, Brian Hoyer, etc. He's a solid mid-level game manager QB who IMO still has some upside.

The tldr; is that the niners KNOW they can make it to the super bowl with Jimmy and their team is built to win now, so why on earth would they trade Jimmy for some rookie picks that will definitely not turn into a win now QB for at least a year. The only real scenarios for the niners were probably:
1. trade for stafford (the rams gave way more than the niners would have) and cut/trade jimmy
2. trade for deshaun (always seemed unlikely, and now with all the court cases, doesn't seem like its even on the table for now) and cut/trade jimmy
3. draft a rookie QB if one falls or if they are able to trade up and have them sit behind Jimmy for at least a year. This seems the most likely.
4. sign some high end backup and ride Jimmy until Kirk becomes available (because Shanahan is obsessed with Kirk)

I don't think there was ever a chance they went with trade Jimmy and draft a rookie to start given current team.
:sadtrombone:
To be fair, I think this is still mostly true. option 3 was most likely, the difference is the sitting behind jimmy for a year piece. they might move on earlier but what we know is that jimmy wins games on the niners. i think theres still a 65-70% chance that hes still the week 1 starter, so it just comes down to whether he loses any games or has a bad day with a bunch of picks. if not, he probably holds the job for the season alex smith-style and then lets our mahomes loose in 2022 (definitely not wishful thinking 😁).

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Re: How many QBs go in the first round?

Postby Ice » Fri Mar 26, 2021 1:47 pm

bjd5211 wrote: Fri Mar 26, 2021 11:32 am
Sriracha wrote: Fri Mar 26, 2021 11:20 am
OhCruelestRanter wrote: Fri Mar 26, 2021 11:18 am At this point keeping Jimmy G seems dumb to me.

Why are you holding onto him? Ostensibly it’s because they think they can win a Super Bowl this year. If that’s the case, why are you giving up 3 firsts to replace a guy that you think is good enough to win a Super Bowl?
Because their defense is in a very limited window and long term they're going to have to deal with Russell Wilson, Matthew Stafford, and Kyler Murray for the foreseeable future.
And Jimmy is affordable right now, but will cost more than he's worth paying to keep around soon. This resets the QB pay timetable and gets a more talented player at the position in future years. Bosa is going to eligible for extension after this season and is going to command big money, that's an easier check to write when your QB is on a rookie contract.
Yea, moving up as far as SF did signals they are moving Jimmy G. by draft day. He has a cap hit around 26 million or so so even if SF gets a 3rd from NE as an example the 49's win by freeing up huge cap dollars.
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Re: How many QBs go in the first round?

Postby bjd5211 » Fri Mar 26, 2021 2:00 pm

Ice wrote: Fri Mar 26, 2021 1:47 pm
bjd5211 wrote: Fri Mar 26, 2021 11:32 am
Sriracha wrote: Fri Mar 26, 2021 11:20 am

Because their defense is in a very limited window and long term they're going to have to deal with Russell Wilson, Matthew Stafford, and Kyler Murray for the foreseeable future.
And Jimmy is affordable right now, but will cost more than he's worth paying to keep around soon. This resets the QB pay timetable and gets a more talented player at the position in future years. Bosa is going to eligible for extension after this season and is going to command big money, that's an easier check to write when your QB is on a rookie contract.
Yea, moving up as far as SF did signals they are moving Jimmy G. by draft day. He has a cap hit around 26 million or so so even if SF gets a 3rd from NE as an example the 49's win by freeing up huge cap dollars.
I still think they keep Jimmy this year, and then move on after the season. If NE comes calling with a great offer they'll probably consider though.

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Re: How many QBs go in the first round?

Postby Ice » Fri Mar 26, 2021 2:06 pm

bjd5211 wrote: Fri Mar 26, 2021 2:00 pm
Ice wrote: Fri Mar 26, 2021 1:47 pm
bjd5211 wrote: Fri Mar 26, 2021 11:32 am

And Jimmy is affordable right now, but will cost more than he's worth paying to keep around soon. This resets the QB pay timetable and gets a more talented player at the position in future years. Bosa is going to eligible for extension after this season and is going to command big money, that's an easier check to write when your QB is on a rookie contract.
Yea, moving up as far as SF did signals they are moving Jimmy G. by draft day. He has a cap hit around 26 million or so so even if SF gets a 3rd from NE as an example the 49's win by freeing up huge cap dollars.
I still think they keep Jimmy this year, and then move on after the season. If NE comes calling with a great offer they'll probably consider though.
I would have agreed if they sat back and grabbed a Mond type in round 2 but picking 3 changes everything IMO. They need to recoup draft picks not have a disgruntled QB in their QB room.

They could but I really think he will be gone quickly and they will sign a depth QB or run out one until the new guy is ready. Their offense is based on movement and not really all that different than what the skill set is they are drafting for IMO.

We will see for sure soon enough.
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Re: How many QBs go in the first round?

Postby bjd5211 » Fri Mar 26, 2021 2:12 pm

Seeing as the most likely candidates seem to be Fields and Lance (Wilson assumed 1.02) and common knocks on them are their NFL readiness, I think there is a good chance they are thinking of following the KC playbook. Trading up significantly for a highly talented but somewhat raw QB and developing them for a year behind the proven quality (but limited upside) starter they know they can compete with right now.

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Re: How many QBs go in the first round?

Postby Ice » Fri Mar 26, 2021 3:15 pm

bjd5211 wrote: Fri Mar 26, 2021 2:12 pm Seeing as the most likely candidates seem to be Fields and Lance (Wilson assumed 1.02) and common knocks on them are their NFL readiness, I think there is a good chance they are thinking of following the KC playbook. Trading up significantly for a highly talented but somewhat raw QB and developing them for a year behind the proven quality (but limited upside) starter they know they can compete with right now.
That does make a lot of sense. Personally think it may be a mistake but it is quite logical
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Re: How many QBs go in the first round?

Postby OhCruelestRanter » Sat Mar 27, 2021 5:56 am

Ice wrote: Fri Mar 26, 2021 3:15 pm
bjd5211 wrote: Fri Mar 26, 2021 2:12 pm Seeing as the most likely candidates seem to be Fields and Lance (Wilson assumed 1.02) and common knocks on them are their NFL readiness, I think there is a good chance they are thinking of following the KC playbook. Trading up significantly for a highly talented but somewhat raw QB and developing them for a year behind the proven quality (but limited upside) starter they know they can compete with right now.
That does make a lot of sense. Personally think it may be a mistake but it is quite logical
Nah. Your instinct here is right. It’s a mistake.

Here’s why- by not trading Garoppolo, you’re saying that he’s so much better than not only your rookie QB, but also Cam, Jameis, Dalton, Trubisky, Fitzpatrick, Mariota, Tyrod, and every other available placeholder that he tangibly changes your odds of winning a super bowl this year. This isn’t Alex Smith, who had no market in 2017 and was still tradable in 2018. They could have traded Garoppolo this off-season and next off-season the whole league will know that they’ll have to cut him.

If they keep Garoppolo and fall short of a Super Bowl, they screwed up. If they win the Super Bowl, but Garoppolo loses the job to their new starter, they screwed up. By keeping him, they’re betting on an extraordinarily narrow outcome.

Finally, there’s no evidence that sitting a QB their rookie year is some magic formula for future success. For every Mahomes there are two Wilsons, Herberts, Daks, Kylers, Jacksons, Allens, etc. who are doing just fine after taking over as rookies. I can see the argument for why you would want to avoid throwing a rookie QB into a bad situation (looking at you, Miami) but SF has a solid line and good receivers. Just start the rookie.
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Re: How many QBs go in the first round?

Postby Lumps » Sat Mar 27, 2021 8:41 am

OhCruelestRanter wrote: Sat Mar 27, 2021 5:56 am
Ice wrote: Fri Mar 26, 2021 3:15 pm
bjd5211 wrote: Fri Mar 26, 2021 2:12 pm Seeing as the most likely candidates seem to be Fields and Lance (Wilson assumed 1.02) and common knocks on them are their NFL readiness, I think there is a good chance they are thinking of following the KC playbook. Trading up significantly for a highly talented but somewhat raw QB and developing them for a year behind the proven quality (but limited upside) starter they know they can compete with right now.
That does make a lot of sense. Personally think it may be a mistake but it is quite logical
Nah. Your instinct here is right. It’s a mistake.

Here’s why- by not trading Garoppolo, you’re saying that he’s so much better than not only your rookie QB, but also Cam, Jameis, Dalton, Trubisky, Fitzpatrick, Mariota, Tyrod, and every other available placeholder that he tangibly changes your odds of winning a super bowl this year. This isn’t Alex Smith, who had no market in 2017 and was still tradable in 2018. They could have traded Garoppolo this off-season and next off-season the whole league will know that they’ll have to cut him.

If they keep Garoppolo and fall short of a Super Bowl, they screwed up. If they win the Super Bowl, but Garoppolo loses the job to their new starter, they screwed up. By keeping him, they’re betting on an extraordinarily narrow outcome.

Finally, there’s no evidence that sitting a QB their rookie year is some magic formula for future success. For every Mahomes there are two Wilsons, Herberts, Daks, Kylers, Jacksons, Allens, etc. who are doing just fine after taking over as rookies. I can see the argument for why you would want to avoid throwing a rookie QB into a bad situation (looking at you, Miami) but SF has a solid line and good receivers. Just start the rookie.
I see both sides. They know what they have in Jimmy. They are primed to win now. Don't rock the boat. I think this is probably where their mind is on this?

1. If it's Lance they want to groom him, not throw him in the fire, have him crack, and it be a busted pick.
2. Jimmy could rehab his value this season after getting hurt. Yes, everyone knows they will need to move him next year, but they know that now basically. Jimmy's value isn't so hot at the moment, but perhaps he brings something more (or at least the closes the gap on value loss) next year to make point 1 work?
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