Rookie Rankings w/ Explanation (SF)

[Chwf3rd]

Tier 1

1 Joe Burrow, QB, 6'2/221, CIN (1.01)

Depending on team need and makeup, I would be fine taking CEH or Jon Taylor here as well. In a vacuum however, Burrow is the #1 pick. As a player, Burrow is an elite QB prospect worthy of the #1 overall pick in the NFL Draft. Pro Comp is Tony Romo. Lacks ideal arm talent but Burrow is exceptionally accurate all over the field. His best ability is the way he manipulates the pocket, keeps his composure, and makes accurate throws while under fire. Better prospect than Kyler Murray last year (for the NFL, not fantasy). While I don't trust the CIN organization generally, the situation looks pretty good for the next few years with AJ Green, Tyler Boyd, Tee Higgins, and Joe Mixon.

2 Clyde Edwards Helaire, RB, 5'7/207, KC (1.32)

Bowling ball shaped RB with great RB traits - physicality, contact balance, lateral agility, and vision. Excellent receiving back and perfectly fits the KC scheme. Lacks the burst and juice of the other top RBs in this draft. The top 5 RBs were very close for me pre-draft and I'm willing to move CEH to the top given the draft capital and situation. His game vs Alabama was incredible and if you want to get hyped about him you should watch it.

3 Jonathan Taylor, RB, 5'10/226, IND (2.09)

Taylor is the best inside runner in this class with his combo of size, explosion, and inside vision. He's not the most shifty or creative runner but he doesn't need to be. He'll consistently turn 2 yard gains into 5 yard gains and if he gets a crease he's a threat to break a big run at any time. Like CEH, Taylor landed in a perfect situation for his skillset.

Tier 2

4 D'Andre Swift, RB, 5'8/212, DET (2.03)

My RB1 predraft (albeit in a big tier), Swift is a huge value at the 4th pick or lower. Swift's playing style is similar to Alvin Kamara with the way he slithers off of blocks. He's incredibly shifty with the best lateral agility in this class. He's quicker than fast but has sufficient long speed. Not necessarily a powerful runner but he has sufficient toughness and size to play an every down role if asked. The issue here is the situation - I still think Kerryon Johnson is a good football player and thus Swift could be stuck in a time share for a few years. Watch Swift vs Kentucky in 2018 if you want to get excited.

5 Cam Akers, RB, 5'10/217, LAR (2.20)

Akers has the highest upside of any RB in this draft. His tools are elite - size, burst, toughness & violence, receiving ability, contact balance, and lateral agility. Unfortunately he was stuck in an awful situation and thus didn't have the same stage as the other top RBs. Main issue is iffy vision but hard to know if that's his fault or a product of Florida St's OL. I actually really like the Rams situation as McVay as shown that he'll feed an uber talented RB. Watch the Louisville game if you want to get excited.

6 JK Dobbins, RB, 5'9/209, BAL (2.23)

Dobbins was my lowest ranked of the RBs in this tier pre-draft and that's why he's at the bottom of this tier. Still, it's close enough that I won't argue with anyone who puts Dobbins at 4. Dobbins is a B+/A- at everything but lacks an elite trait like the guys in front of him. Situation is great as Dobbins is expereinced in a zone read scheme and Ingram is now 30 years old. Potential pass catching limitation as Lamar Jackson hasn't shown a willingness to throw to his RBs.

7 Tua Tagliovola, QB, 6/217, MIA (1.05)

If you need a QB I'm fine moving Tua to the top of this tier. Like Burrow, Tua lacks ideal arm talent but wins with his mobility and accuracy. While Tua has a longer track record than Burrow, he never put up a season like Burrow did last year. The injuries scare me and there are some question marks about how well Tua can go through his progressions - at Alabama there were a lot of first read throws. The situation in Miami is ok, I like the OL picks that MIA made but this is still a rebuilding team with a ton of holes.

Tier 3

8 Jerry Jeudy, WR, 6'1/193, DEN (1.15)

The best separator in the class, Jeudy reminds me of Stefon Diggs. Very pro ready WR with advanced releases off the line and route running. Phenomenal YAC ability with the ball in his hands. Knows how to manipulate his speed to set up defenders. Not a very physical WR and you won't see him making many contested catches. Situation isn't great with Sutton next to him.

9 CeeDee Lamb, WR, 6'1/198, DAL (1.17)

Just a playmaker at WR. Best YAC in the class and has fantastic ball skills and ball tracking ability as well. Very quick but lack of speed shows. Some issues separating from coverage and lacks experience against press. While he's competing with a locked in WR1 in DAL, Lamb landed in an explosive offense with a young QB. Think he can be very productive as Dak's #2 target.

10 Jalen Reagor, WR, 5'11/206, PHI (1.21)

Love Reagor pre-draft and he received premium draft capital in my favorite landing spot. Reagor immediately stands out when watching him. Extremely twitched up and explosive, Reagor separates as well as defenders struggle keeping up. Provides a deep threat but has also flashed the ability to make tough contested catches and good sideline footwork. PHI was my favorite WR landing spot in the class as I'm a big fan of that offense and Wentz and they have a huge hole at WR.

Tier 4

11 Justin Herbert, QB, 6'6/235, LAC (1.06)

I don't like Herbert as a player but this is the value play in superflex. Herbert has great arm talent and mobility but he had lots of easy reads at Oregon and consistently disappointed. Struggles out of rhythm and a little robotic as a player. Still, the Chargers situation is great and the top 10 draft capital should guarantee him a starting role for a while.

12 Brandon Aiyuk, 5'11/205, WR, SF (1.25)

One of my favorite players pre-draft. Can win all over the field in a variety of ways - explosion out of breaks, YAC ability, deep speed, or physicality. Has the rare ability to come out of his breaks without losing any explosion. Love the draft capital and the landing spot is ok. I trust Shanahan and that should be a productive offense for a long time. Issues arise given the run first nature of the offense and competition with another great young WR in Deebo. Watch the Oregon game if you want to get excited.

13 Justin Jefferon, WR, 6'1/202 MIN (1.22)

The safest WR after Jeudy and Lamb, Jefferson should be able to step into the slot immediately and produce. If you want to lower your risk then pick Jefferson. He's very quick out of his breaks, creates consistent separation from the slot, very good YAC ability, and flashes contested catch ability. I don't see him playing outside and he's not as dynamic as other WRs in this class. Very good landing spot in MIN with Diggs' departure. Watch the Oklahoma game if you want to get excited.

14 Henry Ruggs, WR, 5'11/188, LVR (1.12)

The first WR drafted, Ruggs could be a great value where I have him ranked. Still, I love the WRs above him and I wasn't a big Ruggs fan coming out. Incredible speed and flashes some toughness and decent route running as well. Think he struggles with physicality and didn't separate as much as he should because he's a long strider rather than a compact, twitched up player. I think Gruden is going to feed him a ton of targets and thus could be very productive early on.

15 Tee Higgins, WR, 6'4/216, CIN (2.01)

Big WR with huge frame to extend himself for difficult balls. Timed speed was disappointing but had the ability to threaten deep at Clemson. Fantastic hands and advanced footwork. Risky as he struggles with physicality (he'll see a LOT more of that in the NFL) and not a great separator. Love the situation with Burrow and the draft capital.

16 Michael Pittman, WR, 6'4/223, IND (2.02)

Decent speed and explosion for his size, some YAC ability, fantastic jump ball catcher, huge frame which he uses to shield defenders. Landing spot in IND is good for the next few years with Rivers but some worries once Rivers leaves. Has a clearly defined role as the X WR and complements Hilton and Campbell very well.

17 Laviska Shenault, WR, 6'1/227, JAX (2.10)

Absolutely love Shenault. Comp is Sammy Watkins. Great combo of size, physicality, explosivenes and YAC. Needs refinement but it'll be hard to keep his playmaking off the field. Only thing that puts him at the bottom of this tier are the injuries and landing spot. His 2018 games vs Nebraska and game vs USC this year are great.

18 Jordan Love, QB, 6'3/224, GB (1.26)

I'm a big Jordan Love fan (especially at his price). Has jaw dropping arm talent and extremely mobile. Unlike Herbert, Love was asked to make extremely difficult plays and delivered. His issues aren't with accuracy but moreso decision making. He'll lock onto his first read at times and make incredibly stupid throws. I'm ok with the landing spot as I trust GB as an organization, however, he'll probably sit for a few years. Huge upside here.

Tier 5

19 Antonio Gibson, RB, 6/228, WSH (3.02)

Big upside low floor pick. Gibson is one of the most exciting players to watch in this class with his big play ability, size, and explosion. At Memphis he played mostly slot WR but he was a pretty shitty WR and his upside lies at RB. He has a lot of work to do as he doesn't know what he's doing yet as a RB but the traits are really exciting - contact balance + burst. Could be David Johnson if things hit right. Don't love the landing spot as I'm still very high on Guice plus there is still a question mark regarding how Washington plans to use him. If he's used as a WR/gadget guy then I don't have much interest in him.

20 AJ Dillon, RB, 6/247, GB (2.30)

Another great value at this spot - in most years, Gibson and Dillon would be late 1st round type of picks. It may be a lazy comp but it's accurate - Dillon's ceiling is Derrick Henry. The blend of size and speed is exciting and defenders are going to hate playing against him. He's not a shifty or creative runner and needs an offense built around him to really hit his ceiling. However, LeFleur previously coached Derrick Henry and according to reports wants to build a run heavy offense. Really love the landing spot as well as GB is a good organization and seemingly always has a solid OL. With Aaron Jones' contract up next year, Dillon could be a huge steal.

21 Denzel Mims, WR, 6'3/206, NYJ (2.27)

I was never as high as others on Mims and didn't get the round 1 hype. However, his combination of athleticism and ball skills are very exciting and worth betting on here. He's a very boom/bust type of prospect. Landed in a very good spot with a young, good QB in Darnold lacking a #1 WR.

22 Bryan Edwards, WR, 6'3/212, LVR (3.17)

Absolutely loved Edwards pre-draft and had him in my top 50 overall players. He's big, physical, explosive, versatile, and has fantastic ball skills. Landing spot is ok - the Raiders have a long term need at X WR but the team drafted Ruggs first so I think Gruden is going to prioritize Ruggs. Could be a few years before Edwards pays off.

23 Ke'Shawn Vaughn, RB, 5'10/214, TB (3.12)

Didn't like Vaughn pre-draft and I was very surprised when he went this early. Vaughn is a solid all around RB that should be able to produce if given volume but I don't see any dynamic traits. Very much a replacement level RB. Still, TB has a potential opening at RB and the team spent good draft capital on him.

24 Zack Moss, RB, 5'9/223, BUF (3.22)

Very similar player as David Montgomery. Excellent contact balance, toughness, pass catching ability, plus some wiggle but lacks juice. If there is a crease it takes him too long to hit it. Still, pretty good value to get a David Montgomery level player at 2.12. Landing spot is ok and your feeling about it is dependent on how you feel about Singletary. I love Singletary so I'm not high on the landing spot but its very possible that BUF doesnt see Singletary as a lead back.

Tier 6

25 KJ Hamler, WR, 5'9/178, DEN (2.12)

Could easily have Hamler at the end of tier 5. Immediately stands out on film with his twitchiness and speed, defenders simply cannot hang with him. Think a much better version of Mecole Hardman. Effortless separation with his quickness and speed. Could be more valuable in real football than the NFL. Don't like the landing spot for fantasy as he's stuck behind two great, young WRs.

26 Chase Claypool, WR, 6'4/238, PIT (2.17)

Freaky player with his combo of size and athleticism. Great draft capital to a team that has consistently developed WRs. Massive player with explosiveness to put CBs on their heels quick. Biggest asset right now is his YAC - should immediately be a weapon on screens and crossers. Flashes ability to box out defenders but is not natural attacking the ball and lacks overall smoothness to his game. Landing spot is odd with JuJu and Diontae already in place, however, if JuJu leaves a lot of opportunity opens up. Watch the Iowa St game to get excited.

27 Van Jefferson, WR, 6'1/200, LAR (2.25)

I had a 3rd round grade on Jefferson pre-draft so I like the player. Projects as an NFL-ready slot WR with quickness and route running nuance. Got the best of LSU star freshman CB Stingley this past year. Odd landing spot as the Rams already have Kupp in the slot and I can't see either moving outside.

Tier 7

28 Cole Kmet, TE, 6'6/262, CHI (2.11)

Not a very flashy or exciting player but projects as a solid starting NFL TE. The draft capital really helps and has a decent floor given his ability as a blocker. Think Kyle Rudolph type of career if he hits.

29 Darrynton Evans, RB, 5'10/203, TEN (3.29)

One of the most explosive players in this class, Evans is a threat to break off a big run at any time. With his lack of physicality and size, I don't see him projecting as a starting RB even if Henry leaves next year. Likely a career committee back.

30 Adam Trautman, TE, 6'5/255, NO (3.41)

Big, physical TE that dominated small school competition and can win in traffic and over the middle of the field. Isn't especially fluid out of his breaks and doesn't project as a potential top tier TE. Really like that NO traded so much for him and I trust Sean Payton.

31 Anthony McFarland, RB, 5'8/208, PIT (4.18)

Really fun, explosive player that should get on the field immediately. Like Darrynton Evans, I struggle seeing him taking over a feature back but should have a long term role given his explosivness.

32 Devin Asiasi, TE, 6'3/257, NE (3.27)

If any TE in this class develops into a top tier fantasy TE, I wouldn't be surprised if it was Asiasi. Former high recruit that transferred to UCLA and didn't produce until his last season. He's smaller than Kmet and Trautman but he's just as good of a blocker and he's way more fluid than both. Really like the landing spot and draft capital as well.

33 Joshua Kelley, RB, 5'11/212, LAC (4.06)

This could be too low as the situation is phenomenal and draft capital is decent but I'm not high on the player. He's solid and can produce if given volume in a good situation (both very possible in LAC) but doesn't have any standout trait and looks like a replacement level player to me.

34 Lamical Perine, RB, 5'11/216, NYJ (4.14)

A better version of Joshua Kelley to me but in a worse situation. Very solid all round back that is a very good receiver. Lacks juice or standout qualities but solid overall. If Bell declines, leaves, or gets injured I think Perine could step in and surprise. Some worry that NYJ just signed Frank Gore.

[MEuRaH]

Thanks for putting yourself out there.

Interesting that Philly is your favorite landing spot (Reagor). Is that because of situation? Or that you believe in Wentz? Both?

Your hatred of Ruggs is awesome. Why do you think he was the top WR drafted?

Is your assessment of Edwards lower because of his landing spot?

And finally..... I love Mims. I've taken him in 2 drafts so far. I loved him pre-draft and his landing spot lead to little competition. The Jets will need to throw (I assume) so I love that too. No question here, just sad that you have him so low.

[joeya2001]

Thanks for putting yourself out there.

Interesting that Philly is your favorite landing spot (Reagor). Is that because of situation? Or that you believe in Wentz? Both?

Your hatred of Ruggs is awesome. Why do you think he was the top WR drafted?

Is your assessment of Edwards lower because of his landing spot?

And finally..... I love Mims. I've taken him in 2 drafts so far. I loved him pre-draft and his landing spot lead to little competition. The Jets will need to throw (I assume) so I love that too. No question here, just sad that you have him so low.

I agree with this, but I believe they feed Crowder, Herndon and Bell, he might be low in the pecking order first year

[Chwf3rd]

Thanks for putting yourself out there.

Interesting that Philly is your favorite landing spot (Reagor). Is that because of situation? Or that you believe in Wentz? Both?

Your hatred of Ruggs is awesome. Why do you think he was the top WR drafted?

Is your assessment of Edwards lower because of his landing spot?

And finally..... I love Mims. I've taken him in 2 drafts so far. I loved him pre-draft and his landing spot lead to little competition. The Jets will need to throw (I assume) so I love that too. No question here, just sad that you have him so low.

Eagles landing spot - it's a combination of a lot of factors. First, I'm a huge Wentz fan. Second, I think it's a very well run organization. Third, there is a huge opportunity there as PHI is desperate for a go to perimeter WR.

Ruggs - I'm a Raiders fan so I followed the situation closely. Apparently Gruden's favorite was Ruggs and the front office and scouts preferred Jeudy. I really think it's just about the speed - the Raiders were really missing the speed element last year and Gruden will have fun developing plays for Ruggs. I love the landing spot for Ruggs as I think Gruden is going to really feed him.

Edwards - I had Ruggs graded slightly above Edwards pre-draft so it's not just the draft capital. However, Gruden isn't like Pete Carroll where the better players will see the field. Ruggs is Gruden's guy and he's going to force the ball to him. Plus I don't think Edwards is a starter this year. Three WR sets seem locked in as Ruggs as the Z, Renfrow in the slot, and Tyrell Williams as the X. Gruden loves TEs too so we'll continue to run a ton of multiple TE formations. Love Edwards and his fit next to Ruggs but its more longterm than this year. Could probably buy Edwards cheap during the season or next year

Mims - I think he's a lot more raw than was made out. Most of what he did at Baylor was back shoulders, slants, and jump balls. His combine testing didn't really show on the field and I'm very apprehensive about those types of players. He struggles to get low and explode out of his breaks. I love the combination of athleticism and ball skills but he has a lot to work on.

[MEuRaH]

And finally..... I love Mims. I've taken him in 2 drafts so far. I loved him pre-draft and his landing spot lead to little competition. The Jets will need to throw (I assume) so I love that too. No question here, just sad that you have him so low.

I agree with this, but I believe they feed Crowder, Herndon and Bell, he might be low in the pecking order first year

That's fair.

Also, Adam Gase. He had Tannehill, Drake, and Parker on the same offense and convinced all of us they were busts. Then he acquires Le'Veon Bell, someone who was the top 2 RB (going by memory) in every season for RB in a PPR league for 4 years prior to his Jets arrival, who proceeds to fall from grace.

........ Adam effing Gase.....

[MEuRaH]

Mims - I think he's a lot more raw than was made out. Most of what he did at Baylor was back shoulders, slants, and jump balls. His combine testing didn't really show on the field and I'm very apprehensive about those types of players. He struggles to get low and explode out of his breaks. I love the combination of athleticism and ball skills but he has a lot to work on.

This is one of the best things I've read about any rookie WR this year. So much detail in such a concise format. Awesome.

[Pac_Eddy]

Mims - I think he's a lot more raw than was made out. Most of what he did at Baylor was back shoulders, slants, and jump balls. His combine testing didn't really show on the field and I'm very apprehensive about those types of players. He struggles to get low and explode out of his breaks. I love the combination of athleticism and ball skills but he has a lot to work on.

This is one of the best things I've read about any rookie WR this year. So much detail in such a concise format. Awesome.

Not they they will end up the same, but I think similar things were said about DK Metcalf last year.

[ericanadian]

If you see Jefferson as a slot WR who can’t move to the outside, what do you see Minnesota doing with Thielen?

[Chwf3rd]

Mims - I think he's a lot more raw than was made out. Most of what he did at Baylor was back shoulders, slants, and jump balls. His combine testing didn't really show on the field and I'm very apprehensive about those types of players. He struggles to get low and explode out of his breaks. I love the combination of athleticism and ball skills but he has a lot to work on.

This is one of the best things I've read about any rookie WR this year. So much detail in such a concise format. Awesome.

Not they they will end up the same, but I think similar things were said about DK Metcalf last year.

I didn't feel that way about DK at all - DK was my WR1 predraft.

DK's speed absolutely showed on film. DK also looks like Denzel Mims if Mims at Kj Hamler - DK was absolutely MASSIVE while Mims is lean. I disagreed with a lot of the negative comments about DK - sure he didnt have an advanced route tree but DK really exploded out of his breaks.

[Chwf3rd]

If you see Jefferson as a slot WR who can’t move to the outside, what do you see Minnesota doing with Thielen?

That's a question I have too - maybe they can rotate or maybe MIN thinks Jefferson can play on the outside. Doesn't matter that much to me either way because Thielen is getting older.

[Pac_Eddy]

If you see Jefferson as a slot WR who can’t move to the outside, what do you see Minnesota doing with Thielen?

That's a question I have too - maybe they can rotate or maybe MIN thinks Jefferson can play on the outside. Doesn't matter that much to me either way because Thielen is getting older.

Jefferson played mostly outside before last season, so I don't think he's limited to the slot. Same goes for Thielen - he can play inside and out, though he is one of the best in the league at slot.

[Cult of Dionysus]

It amazes me how so many people disregard Ruggs 10 1/8" hands. The dude has massive hands, especially for a guy under 6'0" tall. And his hands DID translate into few drops and very good assessments from most pro analysts.

[Chwf3rd]

It amazes me how so many people disregard Ruggs 10 1/8" hands. The dude has massive hands, especially for a guy under 6'0" tall. And his hands DID translate into few drops and very good assessments from most pro analysts.

His hands are very good.

[jenkins.math]

I honestly have no idea what to do with Gibson and where to rank him. If he has RB eligibility in FF, I'm much more interested in him than if he doesn't. The fact that he doesn't have much competition at RB in Washington and he has the same staff that just threw the ball to CMC all day every day makes me excited.

However, there is so much unknown with the guy and what position he will even play. Guys that don't seem to have a true position are usually worthless in FF. I think he has the widest range of fantasy outcomes of any player and I am having trouble figuring out the where to value him. Honestly, I'm not sure I've ever had a more difficult time evaluating a player than Gibson.

[Chwf3rd]

I honestly have no idea what to do with Gibson and where to rank him. If he has RB eligibility in FF, I'm much more interested in him than if he doesn't. The fact that he doesn't have much competition at RB in Washington and he has the same staff that just threw the ball to CMC all day every day makes me excited.

However, there is so much unknown with the guy and what position he will even play. Guys that don't seem to have a true position are usually worthless in FF. I think he has the widest range of fantasy outcomes of any player and I am having trouble figuring out the where to value him. Honestly, I'm not sure I've ever had a more difficult time evaluating a player than Gibson.

That uncertainty is why he's in the early 3rd. Well worth the risk to me in that range.