Value Check: T.J. Hockenson

[ericanadian]

I was going to write a post about this, the difference between sports fan thoughts and fantasy football. I travel to Detroit metro area a lot and listen to the sports talk. They can't get rid of Patricia fast enough. He is a terrible coach and his GM buddy just as bad. So Detroit's overdrafts a TE and then the fantasy community is very high on him. What exactly has he done to show any skill beyond a nice developmental TE? I wanted no part of him in the 1st round in 2019 and I wouldn't consider him above a mid 2020 2nd.

The team is 3-4-1 in one of the toughest divisions in football and got screwed in the Green Bay game. Not sure how that equates to bad GM + bad coach given that the team was bad when they got there.

I get that you don't follow the Detroit Lions, but the Lions were a good team in 2017, won 9 games, 9 in 2016 too. Patricia was brought in to make and win playoff games as a defensive genius. Their defense is terrible and players are calling out the coach for his poor system.

Point being, why is Hockenson overvalued when he was overdrafted by a bad organization?

I guess you don’t follow any other team in the league. The only team they beat with a record over five hundred was the Vikes, who they beat in Keenum’s second start with the team after Bradford went down. So, tell me more about how this was a team on the verge of the playoffs...

Packers x2 (7-9) (Both times with no Rodgers)
Bears x2 (5-11)
Cardinals (8-8)
Browns (0-16)
Giants (3-13)
Vikings (13-3)
Bucs (5-11)

[remedy29]

The team is 3-4-1 in one of the toughest divisions in football and got screwed in the Green Bay game. Not sure how that equates to bad GM + bad coach given that the team was bad when they got there.

I get that you don't follow the Detroit Lions, but the Lions were a good team in 2017, won 9 games, 9 in 2016 too. Patricia was brought in to make and win playoff games as a defensive genius. Their defense is terrible and players are calling out the coach for his poor system.

Point being, why is Hockenson overvalued when he was overdrafted by a bad organization?

I guess you don’t follow any other team in the league. The only team they beat with a record over five hundred was the Vikes, who they beat in Keenum’s second start with the team after Bradford went down. So, tell me more about how this was a team on the verge of the playoffs...

Packers x2 (7-9) (Both times with no Rodgers)
Bears x2 (5-11)
Cardinals (8-8)
Browns (0-16)
Giants (3-13)
Vikings (13-3)
Bucs (5-11)

Nice that you logged their wins, winning this argument must mean a lot to you. But you do realize that some of those 7-9 and 8-8 teams weren't above .500 because the Lions beat them. Fact is, the Lions were an above average team, their 9-7 record is the very definition of above average. You stated they were a bad team, which they were not.

Point being, Patricia is a bad coach. Ask any real Lions fan. He thinks he is the smartest guy in the room, which he is not. He overdrafted Hockinson so he can be their Gronk. Hock is no Gronk. He is a nice TE prospect, but he is no stud.

[dynastyninja]

https://giphy.com/gifs/fallontonight-no ... XQs1tiF4LZ

[qazxswedcvfrtgbnhyuj]

I get that you don't follow the Detroit Lions, but the Lions were a good team in 2017, won 9 games, 9 in 2016 too. Patricia was brought in to make and win playoff games as a defensive genius. Their defense is terrible and players are calling out the coach for his poor system.

Point being, why is Hockenson overvalued when he was overdrafted by a bad organization?

I guess you don’t follow any other team in the league. The only team they beat with a record over five hundred was the Vikes, who they beat in Keenum’s second start with the team after Bradford went down. So, tell me more about how this was a team on the verge of the playoffs...

Packers x2 (7-9) (Both times with no Rodgers)
Bears x2 (5-11)
Cardinals (8-8)
Browns (0-16)
Giants (3-13)
Vikings (13-3)
Bucs (5-11)

Nice that you logged their wins, winning this argument must mean a lot to you. But you do realize that some of those 7-9 and 8-8 teams weren't above .500 because the Lions beat them. Fact is, the Lions were an above average team, their 9-7 record is the very definition of above average. You stated they were a bad team, which they were not.

Point being, Patricia is a bad coach. Ask any real Lions fan. He thinks he is the smartest guy in the room, which he is not. He overdrafted Hockinson so he can be their Gronk. Hock is no Gronk. He is a nice TE prospect, but he is no stud.

How can you tell exactly that a rookie TE - a position notorious for taking years for players to excel at at the NFL level - has been "overdrafted", when he's only played a bit more than half a season?
Hockenson was hailed as one of the most complete TE prospects in years and would have gone shortly thereafter most likely, had detroit not picked him where they did. He has actually shown pretty well imho, except needing to be smarter in avoiding concussions, as Cult mentioned.

As far was value goes I still see him as an early first in te premium leagues, a mid first in regular leagues, and a late first in sf. If you can get him for a 2nd, as some people here have suggested, I'd be buying all day long.

[remedy29]

I guess you don’t follow any other team in the league. The only team they beat with a record over five hundred was the Vikes, who they beat in Keenum’s second start with the team after Bradford went down. So, tell me more about how this was a team on the verge of the playoffs...

Packers x2 (7-9) (Both times with no Rodgers)
Bears x2 (5-11)
Cardinals (8-8)
Browns (0-16)
Giants (3-13)
Vikings (13-3)
Bucs (5-11)

Nice that you logged their wins, winning this argument must mean a lot to you. But you do realize that some of those 7-9 and 8-8 teams weren't above .500 because the Lions beat them. Fact is, the Lions were an above average team, their 9-7 record is the very definition of above average. You stated they were a bad team, which they were not.

Point being, Patricia is a bad coach. Ask any real Lions fan. He thinks he is the smartest guy in the room, which he is not. He overdrafted Hockinson so he can be their Gronk. Hock is no Gronk. He is a nice TE prospect, but he is no stud.

How can you tell exactly that a rookie TE - a position notorious for taking years for players to excel at at the NFL level - has been "overdrafted", when he's only played a bit more than half a season?
Hockenson was hailed as one of the most complete TE prospects in years and would have gone shortly thereafter most likely, had detroit not picked him where they did. He has actually shown pretty well imho, except needing to be smarter in avoiding concussions, as Cult mentioned.

As far was value goes I still see him as an early first in te premium leagues, a mid first in regular leagues, and a late first in sf. If you can get him for a 2nd, as some people here have suggested, I'd be buying all day long.

I can't tell if Hockenson will be good, I surely don't know, but I'm taking the opposite position, that he is overhyped. Part of my basis for the argument is that he was overdrafted in the NFL draft. No TE should go in the early 1st round of the NFL draft. Surely Hockenson has not helped the Lions win games. The coach and GM do not have years to wait for the notoriously long wait time for Hockenson to show his worth. Had Hockenson been drafted in the second round, would his dynasty "value" be the same? That is my question.

If TEs take notoriously long to develop, why waste an early 1st on them? I have Knox, and I'll gladly wait a bit to see if he develops, but I'd be pissed if I'm waiting on an early 1st round fantasy pick on a TE to develop to the point that he doesn't suck in fantasy. TE's, for the most part, just don't score enough points to be worth it.

[qazxswedcvfrtgbnhyuj]

[quote=remedy29 post_id=1768936 time=1573349579
I can't tell if Hockenson will be good, I surely don't know, but I'm taking the opposite position, that he is overhyped. Part of my basis for the argument is that he was overdrafted in the NFL draft. No TE should go in the early 1st round of the NFL draft. Surely Hockenson has not helped the Lions win games. The coach and GM do not have years to wait for the notoriously long wait time for Hockenson to show his worth. Had Hockenson been drafted in the second round, would his dynasty "value" be the same? That is my question.

If TEs take notoriously long to develop, why waste an early 1st on them? I have Knox, and I'll gladly wait a bit to see if he develops, but I'd be pissed if I'm waiting on an early 1st round fantasy pick on a TE to develop to the point that he doesn't suck in fantasy. TE's, for the most part, just don't score enough points to be worth it.

I understand your position, but that is kind of the point exactly, at least to me. He went so high in most of my leagues (though admittedly I play mostly te premium) because many people believe(d) him to be one of those rare tight ends that could be a very good, consistent producer for fantasy in a few years, which would then make him a game changer. The whole "baby gronk" name - while obviously very wishful thinking - didn't come out of nowhere. He has the tools, the draft pedigree and seems to have the work ethic to boot.
Will it ever happen? Who knows. But I don't mind investing in what I think could be a difference maker, even if it means not seeing immediate returns.

[Cameron Giles]

A late 1st sounds about right in SF.

I still think Hockenson is going to be a good player. He's a complete TE, he's likely going to see an increase in target share moving forward, and Stafford has always been a good QB for fantasy production. Hockenson has Top-5 Dynasty TE potential.

[alewilliam789]

Even with the sh1t show at TE he’s still playing well! After a 2 games out with a concussion and bye he is still a top 15 PPR TE up to Week 10 as a rookie. From what I saw when he went HAM in Week 1 he looks like he has the potential to be a huge game-changer at TE

[Space Cowboy]

Don't see what's changed. He's still worth 1.10 or so. He's looked like a rookie but TE is difficult. I would be worried a drop about some of the massive hits hes taken/taking.

[Samhain34]

In the PPR SF league I'm in, Hock went 1.09 followed by Fant. I wound up with Fant, but would have been happy with either one. If you can get him for a second, take him.