Jones and Lock

[Snake]

Hey guys. Where are you looking to draft Jones and Lock in 2QB/SF leagues? I’m thinking after Deebo/Campbell/Fant are off the board you need to take these two QBs in the early 2nd round. I remember when Trubisky slid to the mid 2nd a couple years ago. There’s a good chance both these/either of these guys get to start this year or next and when they do, in a 2QB/SF league, a young starting QB is worth a 1st, right?

[umbrellaacademy2019]

Hey Snake,

I'm targeting picking one of them with the #12 pick in one of my dynasty leagues. 10 team league so early second round. I've seen some mocks that have jones falling as far as early 3rd. If I draft one of them at #12 and the other is still there, I may try to trade up and draft the other. My current QBs status is lacking: Russell Wilson, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Case Keenum and Teddy Bridgewater. Hope this helps

[Snake]

I like that. I’d probably take Jones before Lock. Just because of the draft capital investment. There were years were Eli was a low end QB1

[umbrellaacademy2019]

Agreed I would do the same- I think he sits for the majority of the year

[Servo]

Mid to Late 2nd at the earliest for me, yes QBs are normally gold in these leagues but neither guy excites me as a prospect.

Gun to my head, I think I'd rather take Lock but

[blemly]

Hey Snake,

I'm targeting picking one of them with the #12 pick in one of my dynasty leagues. 10 team league so early second round. I've seen some mocks that have jones falling as far as early 3rd. If I draft one of them at #12 and the other is still there, I may try to trade up and draft the other. My current QBs status is lacking: Russell Wilson, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Case Keenum and Teddy Bridgewater. Hope this helps

I think I know which mocks you are talking about

I took Jones at 3.01 in my recent 12-team SF league and Lock went at 3.02 right after. I think Jones starts after 8-10 games this season, and I think he does fine for a rookie. I wouldn't call him polished, but as others have indicated, a starting QB is a starting QB and those are worth 1st round picks. I wouldn't wait until the 3rd to try and draft either because they will almost certainly be gone by then, but I would start thinking about it after the 2.05/2.06. Rookie QBs with the draft capital attached to Jones rarely go as late as he is going and I would be looking to take advantage.

[Servo]

Rookie QBs with the draft capital attached to Jones rarely go as late as he is going and I would be looking to take advantage.

Ehhh did people say the same thing after Jake Locker, EJ Manuel, Gabbert, Ponder, etc. were drafted highly?

Yes, Jones played a difficult schedule and went to Duke but him going at #6 is egregious in my opinion but QBs are over drafted every year...some pan out and others don't. We'll have to wait 3-5 years before we find out.

[abloom]

Jones should be a mid-late first (probably dependent on team), and Lock mid-late 2nd.

Say what you will about Jones, but the NYG invested heavily in him. He's going to get the shots to play.

[blemly]

Rookie QBs with the draft capital attached to Jones rarely go as late as he is going and I would be looking to take advantage.

Ehhh did people say the same thing after Jake Locker, EJ Manuel, Gabbert, Ponder, etc. were drafted highly?

Yes, Jones played a difficult schedule and went to Duke but him going at #6 is egregious in my opinion but QBs are over drafted every year...some pan out and others don't. We'll have to wait 3-5 years before we find out.

Yep, but you could say the same thing about Jackson and Allen last year too. Now they carry early 1st+ value in every SF/2QB league.

Let me be clear, I’m not waiting to find out whether Jones (or Allen/Jackson for that matter) is a long-term option. I will be looking to move him when he starts or at the end of this season when his value seems to have peaked. I didn’t play SF leagues back when Ponder, Gabbert, Ponder, or Manuel we’re drafted early, but would be willing to bet that they carried pretty solid value until everyone knew what they were. That usually doesn’t happen right out of the gate and is worth a mid-late 2nd pick to try and flip the asset down the road.

[theone]

Jones and Lock should not be close in consideration. Picks as high as Jones typically get a long leash, even bad ones like Bortles and Tannehill not only made it through rookie deals but were given extensions.

The hit rate on 2nd rounders like Lock is abysmal, particularly those drafted as late as him. Most become backups at best.
Put another way; ARI, OAK, TB, NYG, CIN, WAS, TEN, and DEN all had marginal QB situations with guys on expiring contracts or contracts they could get out of easily in the near term. All of them bypassed Lock for another QB or no QB, some multiple times. DEN traded down and still bypassed Lock for a TE late in the first. That is not someone the NFL views as a starter in the league but more of a developmental player.

[slaughterrt]

I drafted Lock at the 3.03 in a 12 team superflex, not because I really believe in him, but because I think at that price his value has to increase. Then sell sell sell. If he totally bombs, then it was only a 3rd. Not like I took him in the first,

[Maximus891]

Both these guys were gone by at 1.10 in my league. Jones at 1.7 and Lock at 1.10

[tom14cat14]

I just took Jones at the 1.11 in my SF. I didnt really want to I was hoping to take him at 2.03 (we have a 1.13 for winner of toilet bowel) But the 2.02 needs a young QB. It is a TE premium both TE are gone, AJ Brown and Campbell were both there, I planed on Brown but with someone needing a QB and a the drop off over the next few WR is small compared to QB drop off.

[Phaded]

Unless you are a QB picked in the top 3; the bust rate is actually shockingly high for "first rounders" too - yeah, the bust rate is also high for second rounders.

I like Lock better.

However, if I were a betting man; I would bet against either of them being a starting QB when their 2nd contract comes around. I would take a better player or trade out.

To be honest, I have a hard time loving any of these QBs this year.

[blemly]

Unless you are a QB picked in the top 3; the bust rate is actually shockingly high for "first rounders" too - yeah, the bust rate is also high for second rounders.

I like Lock better.

However, if I were a betting man; I would bet against either of them being a starting QB when their 2nd contract comes around. I would take a better player or trade out.

To be honest, I have a hard time loving any of these QBs this year.

I tend to agree with you on neither Lock nor Jones being a starter past their rookie deals, but why not buy them if you can in the mid-2nd? Little risk and if/when they become a starter you can sell for more than you bought.