DLF SuperFlex startup!

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Re: DLF SuperFlex startup!

Postby iCantStop » Tue Mar 29, 2016 11:31 am

Agree with Buckeye on the 1st for the 4th. It turned into a nice WR trio. I think a 4th was a bit of a stretch for me, but when I looked at August ADP from 2015, the later rookie picks were being drafted in the late 50s (DGB being 1.10 going 56th in start-ups), I figured I could do worse than give a player like Matthews/Benjamin/Floyd for the *potential* at a high rookie pick next year, which could end up in the ADPs of the 20s or 30s.

Now that the dust has settled and some teams have more obvious intentions of winning now - Buckeye included - and some preferring to defer their winnings to 2018 & beyond, it looks like the '17 1st will be later. However, since it's a start-up and more teams than not are on the same playing field (no one is truly stacked - yet), I still don't mind that I took the gamble on getting a nice pick next year. Worst-case scenario is a pick in what's considered a strong draft being worth a 6th rounder in start-ups; best-case a (very late) 2nd or 3rd rounder.

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Re: DLF SuperFlex startup!

Postby Dookmarriot » Tue Mar 29, 2016 1:30 pm

I think it's interesting now that we've had time to digest the draft to see what we think of our teams.

I'm generally happy...with only one or two exceptions I got players in each of my tiers. The only blunder was the misunderstanding that led to me giving up my 2017 1st. That bugs me, but if Lacy comes back with the dedication to stay off the China Food I'll be able to justify it to myself. I think I have a three year window to contend, and fingers crossed I've got decent depth. There are a lot of strong teams, though.

One thing I didn't anticipate was all the rookie picks being hovered up so fast. I'd figure that I'd have three of them or so, but they were disappearing when there were players I still really liked on the board. When I did think the value was there, the picks were getting late in a class I'm not in love with.
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Re: DLF SuperFlex startup!

Postby flashgordon12 » Tue Mar 29, 2016 2:44 pm

Yeah once I noticed how youth-centric many of the teams were going, I decided I should go all in and trade my '17 1st. I already had 4 stud WRs so I figured I might as well snag a QB who I think could be a stud in Tannehill. Overall I'm very happy with how my team turned out, though I somewhat regret my trade giving up Eifert. But it did help my starting lineup at least. Now I can't wait to get to trading...
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Re: DLF SuperFlex startup!

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Tue Mar 29, 2016 2:53 pm

Yeah that was a fun startup. My thought process was if I don't really love a player left on the board for the price, i'm going to go with either a draft pick this year or next year in the range I felt like I would get a player I liked better. So while it led to me having a funny looking team, I'd rather it be a work in progress with pieces I like versus a "complete" looking team with pieces I don't like.

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Re: DLF SuperFlex startup!

Postby BuckeyeNation » Tue Mar 29, 2016 7:21 pm

Dynasty DeLorean wrote:Yeah that was a fun startup. My thought process was if I don't really love a player left on the board for the price, i'm going to go with either a draft pick this year or next year in the range I felt like I would get a player I liked better. So while it led to me having a funny looking team, I'd rather it be a work in progress with pieces I like versus a "complete" looking team with pieces I don't like.
I hear you. My experience in startups that include rookie picks is that most first round picks come off the board too soon, and later rookie picks present a bargain compared to the vets available. This startup played out similarly to me except that most of the 1st round rookie picks came off the board close to where they should.
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Re: DLF SuperFlex startup!

Postby Madadamus » Tue Mar 29, 2016 8:00 pm

Dookmariot wrote:I think it's interesting now that we've had time to digest the draft to see what we think of our teams.

I'm generally happy...with only one or two exceptions I got players in each of my tiers. The only blunder was the misunderstanding that led to me giving up my 2017 1st. That bugs me, but if Lacy comes back with the dedication to stay off the China Food I'll be able to justify it to myself. I think I have a three year window to contend, and fingers crossed I've got decent depth. There are a lot of strong teams, though.

One thing I didn't anticipate was all the rookie picks being hovered up so fast. I'd figure that I'd have three of them or so, but they were disappearing when there were players I still really liked on the board. When I did think the value was there, the picks were getting late in a class I'm not in love with.
It's definitely a different mindset. I just don't get the train of thought that 99% of the owners want to win now, or even try to win now and win later. It simply isn't possible unless you literally kill the draft and flip guys in trades for value over and over.

You took Allen Hurns, Eddie Lacy, and Julian Edelman over the 1.07. Who is going to pay that in the open market? In a SuperFlex it's even worse because Wentz and/or Goff might be off board pushing down a position player that should easily be worth these guys. Even in a weak class, there are still 1st round talents. There isn't an Amari Cooper or even a Brandin Cooks in this draft, but there are plenty of guys with great metrics that will be drafted in the 1st round.

Personally, my goal in the start-up is to acquire guys I want to be on my roster for years to come and know that they are rising assets. And I think rookie picks were avoided because people want to win now and fill out their roster. But when is a player like that ever getting the 1.07?

C.J. Anderson, John Brown, Stefon Diggs. When are they fetching the 1.07? When are Ryan Fitzpatrick, Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Crabtree, or Latavius Murray getting late 1st round picks in the open market? I could go on all day. I just think some owners make mistakes discounting this rookie class and chose declining assets that might be above replacement level for a year or two.

Now of course the 2016 class could be the worst in history and no one could pan out but the picks are liquid assets and are easier to move than one of the players mentioned above.
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WR: T. Higgins, M. Evans, B. Aiyuk, C. Watson, K. Toney, M. Thomas, C. Ridley, C. Davis, J. Reagor
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RB: C. McCaffrey, A. Kamara, E. Elliott, J. Dobbin, J. Mixon, A. Mattison, J. White, L. Bell
WR: D. Moore, J. Jeudy, O. Beckham Jr., C. Claypool, C. Davis. D. Parker, L. Fitzgerald, B. Perriman, W. Snead
TE: E. Engram, C. Kmet, C. Herndon, K. Warring
2021 Picks: 1.10, 2.10, 3.10, 4.10

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Re: DLF SuperFlex startup!

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Tue Mar 29, 2016 11:29 pm

I can only speak for myself but I couldn't name 7 rookies I'd rather have than Diggs which is why I took him when I did.

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Re: DLF SuperFlex startup!

Postby pokerface40 » Wed Mar 30, 2016 12:00 am

Dynasty DeLorean wrote:I can only speak for myself but I couldn't name 7 rookies I'd rather have than Diggs which is why I took him when I did.
Yeah I strongly considered Diggs at that spot right before you but took Ingram. Would much rather have either player over the 1.07

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Re: DLF SuperFlex startup!

Postby Dookmarriot » Wed Mar 30, 2016 6:20 am

Madadamus wrote:You took Allen Hurns, Eddie Lacy, and Julian Edelman over the 1.07. Who is going to pay that in the open market? In a SuperFlex it's even worse because Wentz and/or Goff might be off board pushing down a position player that should easily be worth these guys. Even in a weak class, there are still 1st round talents. There isn't an Amari Cooper or even a Brandin Cooks in this draft, but there are plenty of guys with great metrics that will be drafted in the 1st round.
I'm not as worried about open market prices as I am production for my team. I look at this class, and see only one guy I really love, and a bunch of guys with upside but each with red flags, be they athleticism, college production, size, technique, etc. That coupled with few teams with a WR1 need and I see a bunch of guys with WR2-3 upside. I'm sure one or two might break through, but based on my tape review I don't see it.

As for Hurns...he was the WR19 in this format last season, is still young, and has a relatively set role with a QB who likes to sling it. So he's shown me he has solid WR2 potential (I picked him over Diggs, who I strongly considered, because I like Bortles as a fantasy QB more than Teddy). Edelman was top 20 in this format the previous season, and was in WR1 territory last year before he was hurt. He's PPR gold. And Eddie was a top 10 RB in 2013 and 2014. He's a gamble, but if last year was an aberration and the rumours about how hard he's training prove true, I've got a great producer at a key position.

The 1.07? Guys like Coleman, Boyd, Fuller, Shephard all could break, but I don't see any of them cracking the top tier of WRs, and whomever I pick could just as easily miss. There's risk in all the players I drafted ahead of the pick, but that risk is mitigated because they've already demonstrated that they can be major contributors at the NFL level. That information isn't available for whomever is selected 1.07.
Madadamus wrote:Now of course the 2016 class could be the worst in history and no one could pan out but the picks are liquid assets and are easier to move than one of the players mentioned above.
But again...why would you want to move players that can be solid contributors? But the key point is the 2016 class. If this was the 2014 class I would have been all over rookie picks because I saw a lot of guys I thought that could be great. If I needed a RB, I would have been hoarding picks like crazy last year. If it was 2017, I might have taken a pick in my top 4-5 spots. I just don't see many players in this class that get me that excited. I'm sure there will be solid players, but I can't remember a class where the top talents were so uninspiring. I think they only look good in relation to each other, not to who is currently playing in the NFL.

And it's also worth noting that not every prospect maintains his value from draft year to year two if they don't produce. If, say, Michael Thomas spends the year on the IR like White did, I don't know if he's going to be much of a trade chip for 2017.
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Re: DLF SuperFlex startup!

Postby Dookmarriot » Wed Mar 30, 2016 6:35 am

That said, I think you're taking the right approach with this class. If there aren't many sure fire prospects, you increase your odds of hitting if you select more players. I don't feel confident about the 1.07, but if I had the 1.06, the 1.07 and the 1.09 I'd feel better about my chances of landing a fantasy contributor.
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Re: DLF SuperFlex startup!

Postby alphaxray » Wed Mar 30, 2016 7:03 am

Madadamus wrote:
Dookmariot wrote:I think it's interesting now that we've had time to digest the draft to see what we think of our teams.

I'm generally happy...with only one or two exceptions I got players in each of my tiers. The only blunder was the misunderstanding that led to me giving up my 2017 1st. That bugs me, but if Lacy comes back with the dedication to stay off the China Food I'll be able to justify it to myself. I think I have a three year window to contend, and fingers crossed I've got decent depth. There are a lot of strong teams, though.

One thing I didn't anticipate was all the rookie picks being hovered up so fast. I'd figure that I'd have three of them or so, but they were disappearing when there were players I still really liked on the board. When I did think the value was there, the picks were getting late in a class I'm not in love with.
It's definitely a different mindset. I just don't get the train of thought that 99% of the owners want to win now, or even try to win now and win later. It simply isn't possible unless you literally kill the draft and flip guys in trades for value over and over.

You took Allen Hurns, Eddie Lacy, and Julian Edelman over the 1.07. Who is going to pay that in the open market? In a SuperFlex it's even worse because Wentz and/or Goff might be off board pushing down a position player that should easily be worth these guys. Even in a weak class, there are still 1st round talents. There isn't an Amari Cooper or even a Brandin Cooks in this draft, but there are plenty of guys with great metrics that will be drafted in the 1st round.

Personally, my goal in the start-up is to acquire guys I want to be on my roster for years to come and know that they are rising assets. And I think rookie picks were avoided because people want to win now and fill out their roster. But when is a player like that ever getting the 1.07?

C.J. Anderson, John Brown, Stefon Diggs. When are they fetching the 1.07? When are Ryan Fitzpatrick, Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Crabtree, or Latavius Murray getting late 1st round picks in the open market? I could go on all day. I just think some owners make mistakes discounting this rookie class and chose declining assets that might be above replacement level for a year or two.

Now of course the 2016 class could be the worst in history and no one could pan out but the picks are liquid assets and are easier to move than one of the players mentioned above.
That's because there is a difference between market value and real value. And since you can only trade with the owners in this league, the market is what we say it is. So you may think the 1.07 has more market value, but that only matters if you can trade the draft pick. After that you have to heavily factor in real value. And when you stack Lacy, CJA, Diggs, and Brown up against the prospects likely available with the 1.07, it's certainly understandable to see why our draft went down as it did.

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Re: DLF SuperFlex startup!

Postby iCantStop » Wed Mar 30, 2016 7:54 am

Madadamus wrote: You took Allen Hurns, Eddie Lacy, and Julian Edelman over the 1.07. Who is going to pay that in the open market? In a SuperFlex it's even worse because Wentz and/or Goff might be off board pushing down a position player that should easily be worth these guys. Even in a weak class, there are still 1st round talents. There isn't an Amari Cooper or even a Brandin Cooks in this draft, but there are plenty of guys with great metrics that will be drafted in the 1st round.

Personally, my goal in the start-up is to acquire guys I want to be on my roster for years to come and know that they are rising assets. And I think rookie picks were avoided because people want to win now and fill out their roster. But when is a player like that ever getting the 1.07?

C.J. Anderson, John Brown, Stefon Diggs. When are they fetching the 1.07? When are Ryan Fitzpatrick, Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Crabtree, or Latavius Murray getting late 1st round picks in the open market? I could go on all day. I just think some owners make mistakes discounting this rookie class and chose declining assets that might be above replacement level for a year or two.

Now of course the 2016 class could be the worst in history and no one could pan out but the picks are liquid assets and are easier to move than one of the players mentioned above.

I would still prefer the likes of Hurns, Edelman, and Lacy over the 1.07 at this point. Hurns is young and a WR2 in a high-volume (albeit garbage time) offense, Edelman is PPR King and Lacy was a top-15 option a year ago.

This draft class is wrought with WR2s. Some may be better, some will be worse. I'd rather have the safety of those players mentioned than the 1.07. If my team was as young as Mad or Delorean's, though, I may go with 1.07 over Lacy or Edelman just for keeping the youth going. Even if 2 QBs go in the top 5, Treadwell, Zeke, and maybe Henry... the 1.07 is already looking at a WR2. Even Doctson and Thomas, despite being solid WRs, have their red flags. Even the mid-late firsts of '16 don't compare to those from last year. I'd easily rather have Perriman or DGB (as prospects) before Doctson or Thomas. Same for Abdullah, Yeldon, Coleman, David Johnson > the RB3, 4, etc. of this class. I'm speaking strictly as prospects, as obviously some haven't panned out as well as I thought they would.

Not trying to knock Mad's strategy, just saying why I chose not to go with '16 picks in this start-up and deferred to the '17 options (though that class isn't guaranteed to be incredible; some players may not come out or may fall off this season).

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Re: DLF SuperFlex startup!

Postby maxhyde » Wed Mar 30, 2016 9:08 am

Yeah I saw this draft pick/youth love in my 2 superflex startups. Just different strategies.
I get that picks are liquid assets but out of a startup that is less true imo. Some teams have all but opted out of the draft so now the problem is you have 4-5 teams that aren't going to be interested because they feel they are win now teams and picks do nothing for them. That impacts the entire market so picks are no more or less liquid than players at that point. If someone needs a WR3 they are much more likely to invest assets in Hurns/Edelman than in 1.07 or the player taken there.
I will buy Lacy for 1.07 in every league I am in whether I need a RB or not

Anyway I don't entirely get punting season 1 in any startup and I am not sure I have ever seen it work with a great degree of success but maybe I will see it work. I also don't slash-and-burn rebuild teams so likely just a difference of style

I think I probably like flash's team best but it looks more like my recent startups so that is probably why. Hard not to be biased.
Should be an interesting league and I will be anxious to see how the draft goes and the moves teams make from here out.
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QB: Brees, Bradford, Lock(3.07)
RB: David Johnson, Penny, Sanders(1.07), Montgomery(1.06), Love(2.07) Bernard, MLynch, Morris, TJLogan, Joe Williams, Shaun Wilson
WR: Jeffery,Cooper, Josh Gordon, Dede Westbrook, Cam Meredith, Brice Butler, Chester Rogers, Lockett, Switzer, Malone, Cain (IR)
TE: Gronk, Swaim, Maxx Williams

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Re: DLF SuperFlex startup!

Postby dynastyninja » Wed Mar 30, 2016 9:13 am

Flash's team is definitely the best

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Re: DLF SuperFlex startup!

Postby Madadamus » Wed Mar 30, 2016 9:19 am

I like Hurns as I own him in a few places. But I believe the entire offense, particularly the passing game, is going to come down to earth a bit. That defense can't be that bad year in and year out. They added Ivory so they will want to run the ball more. A lot of Hurns' production came on flukey plays and deep bombs late in games. Not saying they don't count, but it's hard to project that that will continue, especially from a guy that is an undrafted free agent. Julius Thomas also starting to come on late so I think he will see a small bump in production.

Julian Edelman is PPR gold, but he is going to be 30 when the season starts. It would be silly to ignore age regression especially in a slot role. Factor in he has had multiple injuries and they add Hogan, Lewis comes back, and who knows what they do in the draft, I see a target drop. In 2016 I think he will be just fine, a high end WR2, but to project that he will continue to do this for years with a 40 year old Brady is not how I view things. Welker is a guy that comes to mind that had a couple of seasons into his 30's, but concussions and injuries took a toll on him and he pretty much fell quickly. The wheels come off fast in the NFL. If you value a guy like Edelman over the 1.07, you can pretty much bet you are going to have him die on your team. Because I do agree that his production offers you more than what you can get in a trade, but I would rather have the guy at 1.07 than WR2 production for a year or two.

Not to mention if we are talking about age decline, why did DT fall all the way to the late 3rd? He is just 28, years younger than Jordy and Marshall, yet they went just over a round later.

Lacy is a guy that will pretty much have to have a Doug Martin type year for him to gain any value. He'll be entering his age 27 season with a lot of wear on him, so he is definitely boom or bust but I think the bust is more likely.

Diggs is a guy that will see his value hit when the Vikings draft a WR in round 1. If they don't even a day 2 WR will bump him down. Diggs is a 5th round player. Does if he have great metrics? Yes. But he is not a WR1 in the NFL in my opinion, and the 1.07, in this format, will probably be more valuable in a trade and on the field then Diggs.

The fact is that all of these picks are safe. Nothing bad can happen to them from now until the draft. The draft will kill some of the value of current players, it happens every year. And with this class being viewed as poor, it can only go up when people see that 'Hey. An NFL team believes this guy is a 1st round talent and he landed in a decent spot. I might actually want to draft him.' This class isn't what is has been in the past, but it does have depth and a decent amount of day 2 talent.
12 Team PPR Dynasty - DLFS
1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 2 RB/WR/TE, 1 QB/RB/WR/TE, 1 TE
QB: J. Burrow, M. Stafford, C. Wentz
RB: S. Barkley, D. Swift, J.K. Dobbins, C. Edwards-Helaire, R. Penny, G. Edwards, K. Drake
WR: T. Higgins, M. Evans, B. Aiyuk, C. Watson, K. Toney, M. Thomas, C. Ridley, C. Davis, J. Reagor
TE: D. Waller, E. Engram, H. Hurst, D. Njoku, G. Dulich, J. Akins
2023 Picks: 1st, 2nd, 2nd (mid), 3rd, 4th, 4th (mid)

12 Team PPR Dynasty
1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 2 RB/WR/TE, 1 QB/RB/WR/TE, 1 TE
QB: J. Herbert, M. Stafford, J. Winston, D. Lock, M. Mariota, J. Stidham, R. Fitzpatrick
RB: C. McCaffrey, A. Kamara, E. Elliott, J. Dobbin, J. Mixon, A. Mattison, J. White, L. Bell
WR: D. Moore, J. Jeudy, O. Beckham Jr., C. Claypool, C. Davis. D. Parker, L. Fitzgerald, B. Perriman, W. Snead
TE: E. Engram, C. Kmet, C. Herndon, K. Warring
2021 Picks: 1.10, 2.10, 3.10, 4.10


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